Bracket Racket – Feb 2 2014

HHDpodsOn this special pre-Super Bowl edition of the Bracket Racket, the crew breaks down some of the surprising games from the past week, including Ohio State-Wisconsin, Arizona finally losing, the overreaction to Syracuse-Duke, and the suddenly surging Texas Longhorns. We also discuss the upcoming games this week, and talk about the tournament implications of the lack of quality mid-major teams.

Posted in Podcasts | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Bracket Racket – Feb 2 2014

Monday Morning Bracketology – February 3

It is time for some more Monday Morning Bracketology.  Here is my projected bracket through games of February 2, plus some notes on this week’s field:

EAST REGION
Buffalo
(1) Syracuse vs (16) Davidson/Robert Morris
(8) Minnesota vs (9) George Washington

San Diego
(5) Ohio State vs (12) Tennessee
(4) Saint Louis vs (13) Stephen F. Austin

Raleigh
(6) Massachusetts vs (11) SMU
(3) Iowa vs (14) Georgia State

Buffalo
(7) Pittsburgh vs (10) Arizona State
(2) Villanova vs (15) American

MIDWEST REGION
St. Louis
(1) Wichita State vs (16) Southern/Coastal Carolina
(8) Memphis vs (9) Xavier

Orlando
(5) Iowa State vs (12) Colorado/Indiana
(4) Cincinnati vs (13) Ohio

San Antonio
(6) Oklahoma State vs (11) Southern Miss
(3) Creighton vs (14) UC-Santa Barbara

Milwaukee
(7) North Carolina vs (10) Providence
(2) Michigan State vs (15) Quinnipiac

WEST REGION
San Diego
(1) Arizona vs (16) Weber State
(8) Gonzaga vs (9) New Mexico

San Antonio
(5) Wisconsin vs (12) Stanford/Missouri
(4) Texas vs (13) North Dakota State

Raleigh
(6) Connecticut vs (11) Florida State
(3) Duke vs (14) Delaware

Spokane
(7) UCLA vs (10) Baylor
(2) San Diego State vs (15) North Carolina Central

SOUTH REGION
Orlando
(1) Florida vs (16) Stony Brook
(8) Kansas State vs (9) VCU

Spokane
(5) Kentucky vs (12) Harvard
(4) Virginia vs (13) Mercer

Milwaukee
(6) Oklahoma vs (11) Green Bay
(3) Michigan vs (14) New Mexico State

St. Louis
(7) Louisville vs (10) California
(2) Kansas vs (15) Belmont

National Semifinals: East vs Midwest, West vs South

Last four in: Stanford, Missouri, Colorado, Indiana
First four out: LSU, Richmond, Oregon, Dayton
Others considered: St. Joseph’s, Clemson, North Carolina State, Georgetown, Marquette, Nebraska, Louisiana Tech, BYU

A few notes about this week’s bracket:
The Big 12 and Big Ten lead the way with 7 bids each, followed by the ACC and Pac 12 with 6 teams apiece.  The American has 5, the A-10, Big East and SEC each have 4, and the Mountain West checks in as the only other multi-big league with 2.

There are lots of changes at the top of the bracket after this wild weekend, resulting in the Florida Gators taking the biggest jump, all the way to the #3 overall seed after they pounded Texas A&M.  The fourth 1 seed seems to be wide open, but at the moment I believe the committee would take an undefeated Wichita State team over the likes of Kansas, San Diego State, Villanova, Michigan State or Creighton.

While my field does have six Pac 12 teams in, only Arizona and UCLA are in safely.  California looks to be in decent shape after knocking off Arizona on Saturday, but they need to keep winning.  Arizona State, Stanford, and Colorado are all among the last teams that made it in.

Florida State continues to tumble down the bracket, moving from a solid single digit seed just a couple of weeks ago all the way down to an 11 seed this week.  If the Seminoles cannot pick things up soon, they may not be in the bracket at all next week.

Indiana snuck into the very last spot in my bracket after their huge win over Michigan on Sunday, knocking LSU down to the First Four out.  LSU has been playing pretty good recently and if they can have a solid week, odds are they will find a way in next time.  Oregon also appears to be ready to break out of its slump, but they are on the outside looking in at the moment.

Among the single bid teams, there are a few changes this week as well.  Ohio U takes over the lead in the MAC and is now my pick for that league’s lone bid.  Toledo’s extremely weak non-conference schedule has resulted in them not even being on my Under Consideration board.  Stephen F Austin is building a gaudy record against weak opposition and is now the highest rated team after the First Four at-large teams.  Finally, I am continuing to watch Georgia State.  This is a very good and dangerous Panthers team that is quickly rising up my board.  While they are not going to be at-large worthy if they stumble in the Sun Belt tournament, if they do get the league’s bid, whoever they draw better watch out (right now I have that as Iowa).

Posted in Bracketology | 2 Comments

Small Conference Game of the Day – February 2, 2014

BUFFALO at BOWLING GREEN, 2:00 PM Eastern, BCSN

1959 Dartmouth.
1962 Yale.
1963 Tennessee Tech.
1968 Columbia.
1968 Bowling Green.

The five longest gaps of failing to making the NCAA Tournament among current members of Division I that have played in at least one NCAA tournament.  Dartmouth, Yale and Columbia all appear to be on their way to extending their streaks one more year as Harvard should win the Ivy League and they will not have a second chance in a conference tournament.  Tennessee Tech is in fifth place in their division in the OVC and will struggle to just finish in the top 8 in the conference and qualify to play in the Ohio Valley tournament (even after their upset of Belmont last night).  Bowling Green may be the best of the bunch.

The Bowling Green Falcons will certainly have the best chance of these five teams to break their drought as no matter where they finish in the MAC standings they will get a chance to play in the MAC tournament.  Bowling Green has certainly not been a great team this season, sitting at 9-11 overall and 3-4 in the MAC.  However, they did score a win over Ohio University last week — the same Ohio team that handed frontrunner Toledo its first MAC loss on Saturday.  While the Falcons will not be contending for their Division title this season, they may be able to put a few more scares in teams during the regular season and even win a few games in the MAC tourney.

Today, Bowling Green welcomes Bobby Hurley’s Buffalo Bulls in.  While Bowling Green has not played in the NCAA tournament since 1968, Buffalo is the only MAC team never to have been in an NCAA tournament (of course they have only been Division I since 1992, other than a short stint in D1 in the mid-70s).  Buffalo is 11-6 on the season and 5-2 in conference.  They have definitely been competitive all season, including a road win at Drexel and home wins over St Bonaventure and Kent State.  this team has already vastly improved over its 20 loss season last year and al signs are that Hurley has this program headed in the right direction.  The NCAA tournament may not be in the mix for the Bulls this year, but it would be no surprise at all to see them get that first berth within the next several seasons.

Posted in News and Notes | Tagged , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Small Conference Game of the Day – February 2, 2014

Small Conference Game of the Day – February 1

For all of today’s great action, check out David Grigg’s Highlighted games here: https://hoopshd.com/2014/02/01/highlighted-games-for-saturday-feb-1st/

COASTAL CAROLINA AT CAMPBELL, 11:00 AM Eastern, ESPNU

The SCGD checks in with an early morning start today as the two division leaders in the Big South go head-to-head in their only regular season meeting this year.  Coastal Carolina checks in today at 12-9 overall and 5-2 in conference, good enough for a one game lead over Winthrop, UNC-Asheville and Gardner-Webb in the South Division.  Charleston Southern is only 2 games back as well, leaving 5 teams clearly in contention for the division title and one of the two #1 seeds in the conference tournament (the Big south uses the old SEC format with teams seeded 1-6 by their division (N1-N6 and S1-S6)).  The Chanticleers do host the league tournament this season, so if they are able to win the top seed, they will be a strong favorite to at least make it to the conference championship game

Today’s host team, Campbell, has snuck up to take a half game lead in the North Division with an overall record of 11-11 and 5-2 in league play.  VMI is right behind them at 5-3 following a win over Presbyterian Friday night.  Radford and High Point are a full game back, while Liberty is still in the mix as well at 3-4.  In short, 10 of the 12 teams in the Big South are within 2 games of first place in their divisions, making this arguably the conference with the most parity in the nation.

Perhaps the parity of the Big South is best seen in the last few bracket projections.  Over the last 4 brackets yours truly has produced, the predicted winner of the Big South has moved from Radford to UNC-Asheville to Winthrop and now to Coastal Carolina.  A win by Campbell today could put the Fightin’ Camels in line for the next bracket.  Parity does have its cost, however.  At the moment, the RPI, BPI and KenPom ratings for all 12 Big south members are sub-200.  The champion of this conference appears to already be a lock for a First Four game in Dayton…and may be headed for the #68 spot on the true seed list, even below the SWAC champion.  All that having been said, however, the Big South does produce exciting competitive games and today’s SCGD should be one of those.

Posted in News and Notes | Tagged , , , | Comments Off on Small Conference Game of the Day – February 1

Highlighted Games for Saturday, Feb 1st

SPOTLIGHT GAMES

-KANSAS AT TEXAS (Big Twelve). Texas has been playing great basketball lately, and this is a major showcase game for them at home. Kansas has looked even better, and is definitely a road tested team, so the atmosphere shouldn’t bother them. Both teams are hot, and it should be an electric atmosphere, so this one should be fun.

-DUKE AT SYRACUSE (ACC). Duke hasn’t been the best road team this year, but they’re playing their best basketball of the season so far right now, so it wouldn’t entirely shock me if they went into Syracuse and pulled off an upset. It would give Duke one of the most impressive wins of the year.

 

OTHER HIGHLIGHTED MATCH UPS

-RICHMOND AT VCU (Atlantic Ten). This is a huge rivalry game, and it’s one that Richmond really needs. Should be fun.

-OHIO STATE AT WISCONSIN (Big Ten). Ohio State’s next win against a team that is solidly in the field will be their first. They’re also coming off a damaging loss to Penn State. Wisconsin has also hit the skids lately, and is also coming off a surprising loss to Northwestern. Both teams could really use this, especially Ohio State.

-GEORGIA TECH AT WAKE FOREST (ACC). Wake is outside the bubble, but could conceivably get onto it if they can string together some wins.

-SETON HALL AT XAVIER (Big East). Xavier is in good shape and will remain that way if they hold serve and win games like this.

-GEORGE WASHINGTON AT DAYTON (Atlantic Ten). GW is having a great year and can get another conference road win on their profile today.

-KENTUCKY AT MISSOURI (SEC). Missouri just got a huge, much needed road win against Arkansas, and will be in great shape if they can follow it up with a home win against Kentucky. Kentucky has just one true road win so far, so a win in this game would improve their resume as well.

-NC STATE AT NORTH CAROLINA (ACC). This is a bitter ACC conference rivalry, and it’s one that UNC really needs to win at home.

-PROVIDENCE AT DEPAUL (Big East). Providence is coming off of a loss, and really needs more road wins on their profile. If they’re unable to beat a fairly weak DePaul team, the committee will question their lack of road wins.

-TOLEDO AT OHIO (MAC). I have Toledo right on the bubble, and I think they can end up inside of it and not need the automatic bid if they can win out, but their margin for error is small.

-KANSAS STATE AT WEST VIRGINIA (Big Twelve). K State could really use a road win.

-SOUTH CAROLINA AT OLE MISS (SEC). Ole Miss has a lot of work to do just to get onto the bubble, much less inside of it.

-BAYLOR AT OKLAHOMA STATE (Big Twelve). Baylor has been atrocious since conference play began, and they’ll end up missing the tournament if they don’t get it turned around.

-MEMPHIS AT SMU (American). Memphis is solidly in the field, but could still improve their profile with some road wins. SMU is right on the bubble, so this is a very big game for them.

-UTAH AT COLORADO (Pac Twelve). This is a very bubblicious game. Both teams really need this one.

-NORTHWESTERN AT MINNESOTA (Big Ten). Don’t look now, but a win for Northwestern will put them at 5-5 in Big Ten play, and would also be their fifth win in their last seven games. They’re a mile from the bubble, but the Big Ten has so many quality teams in it that if they string together some wins they can make up quite a bit of ground. Much easier said than done, though. Minnesota has been tough at home and has looked good this season.

-GEORGE MASON AT SAINT LOUIS (Atlantic Ten). SLU is having another big year and shouldn’t have too much trouble today.

-EVANSVILLE AT WICHITA STATE (Missouri Valley). Wichita is still unbeaten, and will likely get a #1 seed if they run the table.

-MICHIGAN STATE AT GEORGETOWN. Georgetown has hit the skids, and needs a big win just to get themselves back within reach of the bubble. Michigan State is shorthanded, but they’re coming off a big road win against Iowa, so I’d say they’ve made some effective adjustments.

-CLEMSON AT FLORIDA STATE (ACC). Florida State is in the field for now, but they do not have an infinite margin for error by any means.

-TEXAS A&M AT FLORIDA (SEC). Florida is rolling and should end up on one of the top three lines in the NCAA Tournament.

-VILLANOVA AT TEMPLE (Big Five). This is a very bitter rivalry, but it appears to be a huge mismatch this year. It’s an out of conference mythical conference game.

-OKLAHOMA AT IOWA STATE (Big Twelve). Oklahoma has looked good this year, but they have struggled some on the road. A win in this would really boost their profile. Iowa State is one of the toughest home courts in the country to win on.

-LOUISIANA TECH AT UTSA (Conference USA). LA Tech is out of strikes. They pretty much need to win out, or else they’ll need to win the conference tournament.

-ARIZONA STATE AT STANFORD (Pac Twelve). Another bubblelicious game. Both teams are right on the bubble, so this has a real pivotal feel to it.

-ARKANSAS AT LSU (SEC). I have both these teams outside the bubble, and both will have to start stringing together some wins if they want any chance at all. Both have managed home wins against Kentucky, but considering how Kentucky has struggled on the road, those may not be worth as much as some may think.

-UMASS AT SAINT JOSEPH’S (Atlantic Ten). UMass has been struggling lately and could really use a big win.

-COLORADO STATE AT SAN DIEGO STATE (Mountain West). This San Diego State is one of the best and hottest in the country right now. I don’t expect that they’ll have any trouble at home in this one.

-TULANE AT SOUTHERN MISS (Conference USA). Southern Miss is right on the bubble, and with a weak remaining schedule they have a very small margin for error, but should be fine if they win out.

-WRIGHT STATE AT GREEN BAY (Horizon League). Green Bay is coming off their first conference loss, and can’t afford to lose another one. Otherwise they’ll probably need the automatic bid to get them in.

-INDIANA STATE AT NORTHERN IOWA (Missouri Valley). Indiana State is out of strikes, they’ll have to win out to get in as an at-large, and that would include winning against Wichita State.

-SAN JOSE STATE AT NEW MEXICO (Mountain West). New Mexico is in fairly good shape so long as they hold serve in games like this.

-USC AT OREGON (Pac Twelve). Oregon has been horrifically bad since conference play began. If they lose this game, they’ll be outside the bubble for sure.

-UCF AT LOUISVILLE (American). Louisville is coming off a loss, but shouldn’t have too much trouble in this one.

-TENNESSEE AT ALABAMA (SEC). Tennessee is outside the bubble and really needs to win games like this.

-GONZAGA AT SAN FRANCISCO (West Coast). Gonzaga has a small margin for error, but they’ve been blowing through the league, which is what they need to do.

-ARIZONA AT CALIFORNIA (Pac Twelve). Arizona is the #1 team in the country. Cal is on the bubble. This is a HUGE chance for Cal.

-SAINT MARY’S AT BYU (West Coast). SMC might be able to play their way inside the bubble if they win out. This would be a big road win for them.

Posted in News and Notes | 1 Comment

SCGD and Under the Radar – January 31

Princeton at Harvard, 7:00 PM Eastern, no TV

For tonight’s SCGD we head to the Ivy League, the league whose regular season games have the most significance of any of the 32 conferences.  As the Ivy does not hold a conference tournament, the automatic bid is awarded to the regular season champion (unless there is a tie which would force a one game playoff scenario for the bid).  Harvard, on paper at least, appears to be the clear favorite to run through the Ivy.  In fact, a record worse than 13-1 in league play would a shock for the Crimson.  However, saying a team will dominate a conference and having them actually do it on the court are two different items entirely (case in point – New Mexico State and the WAC this year).

Princeton (along with Columbia) is one of two teams that appears to be talented enough to knock off Harvard or at least give them some tough games.  Tonight, the Tigers travel to Cambridge, Massachusetts to take on the Crimson.  The return trip to Princeton will take place on February 22.  Princeton is 12-3 overall on the season, though lost their lone Ivy League game to date, at rival Penn.  They also suffered a disappointing non-conference loss to Portland.  Their best win was an exciting overtime road win over Penn State.

For the Harvard Crimson, an at-large bid would be worth discussing if the Ivy had a conference tournament.  Should they roll through the conference regular season and lose in the finals of a league championship tournament, their resume would be worthy enough.  However, if they do the first part, and roll through the conference regular season, they will be in the field anyhow.  The Crimson are 15-3 on the year, with the losses coming in a hard fought road game at a full strength Colorado team, at Connecticut with Wesley Saunders unable to play, and an inexplicable loss at Florida Atlantic.  They have wins over a pretty good Vermont team, a decent Boston University team, and an even better Green Bay team, plus won the championship in the Great Alaska Shootout.

UNDER THE RADAR

As an added bonus today, below find our most recent Under the Radar videocast.  David and I go through the single-bid conferences and again predict where each team will fall in the tournament seeding.  We also debate the chances of some of these bottom teams to pull upsets in the NCAA tournament, including discussing dangerous teams from Mercer, Georgia State, North Dakota State and more.  And in a new twist, we actually make the case that the SWAC champion may not be team #68 in the Field.

Posted in News and Notes, Podcasts, Videocasts | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on SCGD and Under the Radar – January 31