Small Conference Game of the Day – January 27

Check out my Monday Morning Bracketology here:

https://hoopshd.com/2014/01/27/chads-monday-morning-bracketology-january-27/

MORGAN STATE at NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL, 7:30 PM Eastern, no TV

The SCGD heads to Durham, North Carolina tonight for a MEAC battle between Todd Bozeman’s(not to be confused with Todd Bearzman) Morgan State Bears and the North Carolina Central Eagles.  Both teams enter tonight’s game at 4-1 in conference play, only half a game behind Savannah State.  Morgan State struggled in non-conference play this season and as such enters tonight’s game only 6-11 overall.  However, they did play one of the top 50 non-conference schedules and should be a factor in the MEAC race all season long.

NC Central was by far the most impressive MEAC team before conference play started.  They scored road wins at North Carolina State and Old Dominion, and they were competitive in losses to Cincinnati and Wichita State.  Of course, they then turned around and began conference play by losing to a Florida A&M team that is not expected to be anywhere near the top of the standings.  The Eagles have bounced back and won five straight since that loss (including a non-conference win over NJIT), and look to re-establish themselves as the team to beat in the MEAC with a win tonight.

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Chad’s Monday Morning Bracketology – January 27

It is time for some Monday Morning Bracketology.  Here is my draft bracket through games of January 26, followed by some notes on the field.  Note that I project the best team in one-bid conferences as the winner, not necessarily the team currently in first place:

WEST REGION
San Diego
(1) Arizona vs (16) Northern Colorado
(8) George Washington vs (9) Gonzaga

Orlando
(5) Louisville vs (12) Baylor/Stanford
(4) Michigan vs (13) Toledo

San Antonio
(6) Ohio State vs (11) Southern Miss
(3) Oklahoma St vs (14) New Mexico State

Spokane
(7) UCLA vs (10) Green Bay
(2) San Diego State vs (15) Hawai’i

MIDWEST REGION
St. Louis
(1) Wichita State vs (16) Winthrop/Southern
(8) Oklahoma vs (9) Memphis

San Antonio
(5) Kentucky vs (12) North Dakota State
(4) Iowa State vs (13) Tennessee/Colorado

Milwaukee
(6) Saint Louis vs (11) North Carolina
(3) Creighton vs (14) Manhattan

Milwaukee
(7) Xavier vs (10) Minnesota
(2) Michigan State vs (15) Belmont

EAST REGION
Buffalo
(1) Syracuse vs (16) Stony Brook
(8) Kansas State vs (9) Oregon

Spokane
(5) Massachusetts vs (12) Harvard
(4) Cincinnati vs (13) Georgia State

Raleigh
(6) Virginia vs (11) Richmond
(3) Wisconsin vs (14) Delaware

Buffalo
(7) Connecticut vs (10) New Mexico
(2) Villanova vs (15) American

SOUTH REGION
St. Louis
(1) Kansas vs (16) Davidson/Bryant
(8) California vs (9) VCU

San Diego
(5) Texas vs (12) Arizona State
(4) Duke vs (13) Stephen F. Austin

Raleigh
(6) Pittsburgh vs (11) SMU
(3) Iowa vs (14) Mercer

Orlando
(7) Florida State vs (10) Providence
(2) Florida vs (15) North Carolina Central

National Semifinals: West vs Midwest, East vs South

Last four in: Baylor, Stanford, Tennessee, Colorado
First four out: Dayton, Wake Forest, Indiana, Arkansas
Others considered: La Salle, St. Joseph’s, Clemson, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Marquette, Illinois, Louisiana Tech, Utah, Washington, LSU, Missouri, Ole Miss, BYU, St. Mary’s

A few notes about this week’s bracket:
The bracket is once again dominated this week by the “power conferences”.  The Pac-12 and Big 12 both led the way with 7 teams, the Big Ten and ACC have 6 each, and the American has 5.  The Big East put 4 teams in, and the SEC has 3.  The only other conferences with multiple bids were the A-10 (5 teams) and the Mountain West (2).  The matchups I get in these brackets are never intentional, but I always get a kick out of some of them.  This week’s bracket has, among other things, round of 64 games between Harvard and UMass, and between Virginia and Richmond — both non-conference series that should be played in the regular season and are not.

The A-10 actually took a bit of a slip this week as Dayton has fallen to the first four out and needs to turn things around quickly to even stay under consideration.  However, Richmond continues to surge and has moved up to the 11 seed line.

The Big 12 continues to look like a 7 bid league, something I laughed at the notion of just a month ago.  However, Baylor is in some trouble and does need to score a few more big wins or they could slip right off the board.  On the other end, Texas is looking more and more impressive and came in this week as a 5 seed (and I know many of you will disagree with that high of a seed for the Longhorns)!

The Pac 12 provided one of my biggest movers this week as Arizona State slid from simply Under Consideration all the way into the field, and even narrowly avoided being in the First Four.  Herb Sendek’s team had a solid but not spectacular week with wins over Utah and Colorado, but with so many others near the bottom slipping, the Sun Devils slid right on up.  Colorado was my toughest choice to include in the field and I do not think they will be there much longer — I just felt even dirtier putting any of my last four teams out in instead of them…for now.  Additionally, I am starting to keep half an eye on Washington.  It may only last a few days, but at 5-3 in conference (with four of those five wins coming over teams also on the board), the Huskies may deserve a little consideration..though not too much yet.

Finally, amongst the smaller conferences (not including the A-10 or MWC), only three non-automatic qualifiers even got a look this week.  Louisiana Tech, BYU and St. Mary’s are all on my board still, but none of these teams has any margin for error left.  Odds are winning out to the conference finals may not even be enough for them at this point, especially Louisiana Tech who does not have a top 100 opponent left on their schedule.

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Highlighted Games for Saturday, Jan 25th

Be sure and check out Chad Sherwood’s most recent bracket projection HERE:  https://hoopshd.com/2014/01/25/chads-bracket-projection-january-24-2014/

 

SPOTLIGHT GAMES

-MICHIGAN AT MICHIGAN STATE (Big Ten). Michigan has been playing much better after a somewhat disappointing start, but this is an extremely tall order. Michigan State is competing for a #1 seed and it won’t be easy to win there. It’s a conference rivalry between two good teams who are looking to add to their profiles. Should be fun.

 

OTHER HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-IOWA AT NORTHWESTERN (Big Ten). Northwestern is a mile away from the bubble, but they’ve played well these past two weeks, so Iowa better not overlook them.

-FLORIDA STATE AT DUKE (ACC). Both teams are good, but both of their profiles could use some improvement.

-XAVIER AT PROVIDENCE (Big East). Xavier appears to be solid right now, but could use some good wins on the road. Providence is right on the bubble, so every game they play has a pivotal feel to it right now.

-GEORGE WASHINGTON AT GEORGE MASON (Atlantic Ten). GW is solidly in the field for now, but this is the kind of game that can be dangerous. It’s a rivalry road game against a team with a weak profile, but who is also capable of playing well at times.

-VCU AT LA SALLE (Atlantic Ten). La Salle got off to a slow start and they still have a lot of work to do, but they have looked good in their last five games. They need wins in games like this if they want to get back onto the bubble. VCU has been playing better lately as well.

-SYRACUSE AT MIAMI FL (ACC). Miami is playing better and only lost by five when these two met earlier in the year, but it’s still unlikely that they’ll be able to play their way back onto the bubble. Still, beating a #1 caliber seed would be a good start.

-GEORGIA AT KENTUCKY (SEC). Kentucky is likely undermatched in this one.

-TEXAS AT BAYLOR (Big Twelve). This is a conference rivalry game between two teams who really need a big win. Both are inside the bubble, but I believe both are very close to it. Even though Baylor is in the rankings their overall profile isn’t that good.

-KANSAS STATE AT IOW STATE (Big Twelve). The biggest thing missing from Kansas State’s profile is a big win on the road. There is a reason it’s missing, though. They have not played well on the road, and it isn’t likely they’ll be able to win at Iowa State, who is one of the toughest teams in the country at home.

-VILLANOVA AT MARQUETTE (Big East). Marquette has no good wins, but no bad losses. As far out of the picture as they appear to be, this is the kind of game that could really jumpstart their season if they’re able to pull it off.

-WEST VIRGINIA AT OKLAHOMA STATE (Big Twelve). Okie State is still a protected seed, but they don’t appear to be the #1 seed caliber team that a lot of us thought they would be. Still, they shouldn’t have trouble winning this one at home.

-VIRGINIA TECH AT VIRGINIA (ACC). This is a great conference rivalry, but this year it’s a huge mismatch. Virginia needs to win so they can avoid a bad loss on their profile.

-TENNESSEE AT FLORIDA (SEC). Tennessee is a bubble team, and Florida is a solid protected seed. This is the kind of road win that could move Tennessee way inside the bubble if they’re able to pull it off, but it is far easier said than done.

-OKLAHOMA AT TEXAS TECH (Big Twelve). Oklahoma has looked good lately and should be able to pick up another conference road win today.

-NEW MEXICO AT COLORADO STATE (Mountain West). New Mexico will make the field if they hold serve against the non-tournament teams in their league, but the way it has played out this year, that’s pretty much everyone other than San Diego State, so they need to win this game.

-DAYTON AT RHODE ISLAND (Atlantic Ten). Dayton is quickly trending in the wrong direction, and a loss today would be extremely damaging. It’s not good for a bubble team to lose to a team that’s not even in the picture.

-SAINT JOSEPH’S AT RICHMOND (Atlantic Ten). Richmond had a really good week, and it looks like they finally may be playing like the NCAA Tournament caliber team many of us thought they would be. They still have some work to do as we have them right on the bubble right now, but if they keep going like they’ve been going they should be fine.

-MISSISSIPPI STATE AT OLE MISS (SEC). Both teams are outside the bubble, but both have decent wins and could perhaps play their way onto it with a strong finish to the season.

-SOUTH CAROLINA AT MISSOURI (SEC). Mizzou is right on the bubble and cannot afford a home loss to a team as weak as South Carolina.

-WISCONSIN AT PURDUE (Big Ten). Wisconsin has been slipping a little bit, and they’ve got another tough test against a Purdue team that has just one home loss on the year, and who could still play their way onto the bubble.

-PITTSBURGH AT MARYLAND (ACC). Pitt is 17-2, but has played a weak schedule. Although Maryland isn’t good, this would still probably be Pitt’s best win to date if they pull it off.

-ILLINOIS STATE AT INDIANA STATE (Missouri Valley). Indiana State can play their way onto the bubble if they win out.

-UCONN AT RUTGERS (American). UConn shouldn’t have too much trouble picking this one up on the road.

-SOUTHERN MISS AT EAST CAROLINA (Conference USA). It’s a tall order, but if Southern Miss wins out they’ll likely end up inside the bubble.

-COLORADO AT ARIZONA STATE (Pac Twelve). Both teams are trending down and desperately need a win in this one.

-EASTERN KENTUCKY AT BELMONT (Ohio Valley). Belmont is probably out of strikes, but as weak as the bubble is they may get a look if they win out. These are probably the two best teams in the OVC.

-GEORGETOWN AT CREIGHTON (Big East). Georgetown has really hit the skids and are now shorthanded for the rest of the year. Creighton is coming off a very impressive win at Nova and is going to be extremely tough to beat at home.

-WICHITA STATE AT DRAKE (Missouri Valley). Wichita could end up on the #1 line if they win out.

-KANSAS AT TCU (Big Twelve). Kansas should win this one easily, but they did lose this game a year ago.

-BYU AT GONZAGA (West Coast). BYU is outside the bubble, and Gonzaga is barely inside it. This is one of the few chances that either team has remaining at getting a notable win, so it’s a huge game for both teams.

-SAN DIEGO STATE AT UTAH STATE (Mountain West). Injuries have hit Utah State hard. It’s unfortunate because this would have been a fantastic game if both teams were healthy. San Diego State, I think, can still end up on the #1 line if they win out, which they are good enough to do.

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Chad’s Bracket Projection – January 24, 2014

Here is my Bracket Projection through games of January 24:

WEST REGION
San Diego
1 Arizona
16 Northern Colorado

8 UCLA
9 Kansas State

San Diego
5 Saint Louis
12 Baylor

4 Iowa
13 Stephen F Austin

San Antonio
6 Pittsburgh
11 Oregon

3 Oklahoma St
14 UC-Santa Barbara

Spokane
7 California
10 VCU

2 San Diego State
15 North Carolina Central

SOUTH REGION
St. Louis
1 Kansas
16 Davidson/UNC-Asheville

8 Minnesota
9 Colorado

Spokane
5 UMass
12 Harvard

4 Cincinnati
13 North Dakota State

Milwaukee
6 Ohio State
11 Gonzaga

3 Wisconsin
14 Mercer

St. Louis
7 Xavier
10 Texas

2 Wichita State
15 Belmont

EAST REGION
Buffalo
1 Syracuse
16 American

8 George Washington
9 North Carolina

Raleigh
5 Iowa State
12 SMU/Richmond

4 Kentucky
13 Manhattan

Raleigh
6 Virginia
11 Tennessee

3 Michigan
14 Delaware

Buffalo
7 Connecticut
10 New Mexico

2 Villanova
15 Stony Brook

MIDWEST REGION
Milwaukee
1 Michigan State
16 Bryant/Southern

8 Oklahoma
9 Green Bay

Orlando
5 Louisville
12 Dayton/Stanford

4 Duke
13 Toledo

San Antonio
6 Florida State
11 Southern Miss

3 Creighton
14 New Mexico State

Orlando
7 Memphis
10 Providence

2 Florida
15 Georgia State

National Semifinals: West vs South, East vs Midwest

Last four in: SMU, Dayton, Richmond, Stanford
First four out: Arkansas, Missouri, Indiana, Arizona State

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Small Conference Game of the Day – January 25

Chicago State at Utah Valley, 9:00 PM Eastern, UVU-TV

If someone had said a month ago that first place in the WAC would be on the line in Orem, Utah on January 25, they would have been laughed at.  However, here we are approaching the end of January and the Utah Valley Wolverines (5-0, 11-7) are in first place while the Chicago State Cougars (4-1, 9-10) are in second — both ahead of preseason favorite New Mexico State.  In fact, yours truly had predicted that New Mexico State would run the table in the WAC — and they instead have already lost to both Chicago State and UMKC…with two games against Utah Valley still to go.

Chicago State is a program on the rise after years being amongst the bottom feeders in Division I.  CSU was pretty much kicked out of the Summit League, spent several years as an independent, and found a home..of sorts…in the Great West Conference.  Even their time in the Great West was rough, including a year spent on the APR ban list.  They finished the regular season in 2012-13 at 9-21, but promptly won both games they played in the Great West tournament to capture the GWC’s last ever basketball championship and earn their first ever postseason bid, an automatic bid into the CIT.  They have already matched last year’s 9 regular season wins…and a shot at a winning record this season does not seem out of reach.  It would be only their second winning season in the past dozen.

Utah Valley had won five straight games heading into tonight’s contest and has been establishing themselves as a legitimate contender in the WAC, especially if New Mexico State cannot bounce back from their recent struggles.  Tonight’s game will be the 14th all time meeting between these former Great West “rivals”, with UVU holding a 9-3 series lead.  A win by UVU will give them a two game lead in conference play as the league season nears its mid-point.

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Under the Radar and SCGD – January 24

VERMONT at STONY BROOK, 9:00 PM Eastern, ESPNU

After taking the day off yesterday (hey, I do have a day job!), the SCGD is back tonight with first place in the America East on the line.  The Vermont Catamounts, 5-0 in conference and 11-8 overall (including a thrilling one point loss at Duke earlier this season) travel to Stony Brook to take on the Seawolves, 5-0 in conference and 13-6 overall.

Vermont has been red hot the past few weeks, having won 7 straight games.  However, a win in tonight’s game would be their best victory on the season to date.  Stony Brook has been solid all season (well, solid for an America East team at least).  They only have one loss to a team outside of the KenPom Top 100, and that was to a St. Francis-Brooklyn team that is among the favorites in the Northeast Conference.  The winner of tonight’s game will have the early lead in the battle for the #1 seed in the AEC tournament.  Given that the highest remaining seed after the semifinals hosts the championship game, tonight’s game could mean the difference in March between a home game in the conference finals or a road game.

UNDER THE RADAR

As a bonus, here is this week’s Under the Radar podcast.  David and I discuss the lack of at-large candidates from conferences outside of the power leagues, review our current predictions in all the conferences that will not have teams on the at-large bubble, and end by running down our UTR Top 10 lists — and finally agree (I think) on what it takes to qualify onto that list.  All that plus even more talk on the HoopsHD Centenary Award!

 

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