Hoops HD

HARVARD AT FLORIDA ATLANTIC, 7:00 PM Eastern

Two of the top coaches in the Big East conference square off tonight as Tommy Amaker’s Seton Hall Pirates take on Mike Jarvis’ St. John’s Red Storm.  Amaker is in his second season coaching at Seton Hall, coming off an NIT appearance last season, and is one of the fastest rising stars among young coaches.  While his team has not gotten off to a great start so far this year, the future looks very bright in New Jersey for Coach Amaker.  Mike Jarvis is the new man in town in New York City, taking over for Fran Fraschilla.  Jarvis led the George Washington Colonials to four NCAA appearances in the last six seasons, and Red Storm fans are extremely excited to have Jarvis as the newest head coach.  The team has been off to a great start and an NCAA tournament appearance seems like a lock already.

Oh wait…

That was 15 years ago.

Welcome to Tommy Amaker versus Mike Jarvis, the 2014 edition.  Amaker’s star did indeed rise all the way to landing him a head coaching job at Michigan.  Unfortunately, that is where it sputtered out, without a single NCAA appearance in his six years at the helm.  Amaker then moved on to Harvard, where he has turned a perennial Ivy League doormat into a team with the ability to win multiple games in the NCAA tournament.  His star is certainly back on the rise, but it remains to be seen if he will stay at Harvard or try to move up to the big time once again.

Mike Jarvis’ career has not been so good.  After an Elite 8 appearance by the Johnnies in his first season, the Red Storm started to fall apart, and he became the first Big East coach ever fired midseason (actually only six games in ) in 2003-04.  After five years out of coaching entirely, he returned to the sidelines in 2008-09 with the Owls of Floria Atlantic.  In his five seasons there, Jarvis has only led the Owls to one winning season, and has not even sniffed an NCAA tournament bid.

Tonight’s game is certainly a tale of two coaching careers.  Both coaches started their careers strong, but had set backs when they moved up to higher level competition.  That is where the similarities end, however.  Amaker has reinvigorated his career with his almost incredible success at Harvard, while Jarvis has done absolutely nothing and seems to be at the tail end of his career.

UTAH VALLEY AT SEATTLE, 4:00 PM Eastern (no TV)

Oh the Whacky WAC.

A week ago, the WAC looked like it might be the least competitive conference in the country.  New Mexico State sat with a top 100 RPI and KenPom rating and was being discussed as a possible at-large candidate should they falter in the conference tournament.  The rest of the conference was at or below .500 overall and had ratings in the sub-200 zone,.  It is amazing what one week can do to change a team and conference’s fortunes.

On Thursday night, New Mexico State suffered a 5 point loss in a thrilling game to Chicago State.  They followed that up last night with another thriller, and another loss, to the UMKC Kangaroos.  As a result, the door to the WAC championship seems to have been thrown wide open, and the SCGD has diverted course from our original destination today (the huge C-USA showdown between Louisiana Tech and Southern Miss) to instead head to the Pacific Northwest as the Utah Valley Wolverines travel to take on the Seattle Redhawks.

Utah Valley is the current WAC leader at 3-0 in conference and 9-7 overall.  Their current four game winning streak has them well into the top 200 in all ratings.  While their non-conference schedule did not feature any great wins, they do have a victory over a Weber State team that may be among the best in the Big Sky.  More importantly, the Wolverines are off to a great start in conference play, as they seek their first ever NCAA tournament bid (in fact, this is the first season that have been in a conference that receives an automatic bid after spending the last four in the Great West).

Seattle is not seeking its first ever NCAA bid this year, though it has been quite some time for the Redhawks.  Seattle last made the field in 1969, and after the 1980 season dropped down out of Division I.  Five years ago they decided to make the jump back up in divisions, and completed their transition, becoming postseason eligible, as of last season.  So far this year they are 9-8 overall, but only 1-3 in WAC play.  A win today, however, will get them right back into the thick of things in this suddenly wide open conference race.

Check out Chad Sherwood’s SCGD here: https://hoopshd.com/2014/01/18/small-conference-game-of-the-day-january-18-2/

SPOTLIGHT GAMES

-PITTSBURGH AT SYRACUSE (ACC). Pitt has racked up a good record against a weak schedule, so this is by far their toughest test of the year. It’s still hard to say how good the Panthers are. Even if they manage to play well in a losing effort in this game I’ll have a little more respect for them, but as of now they really haven’t done anything that’s all that noteworthy.

LOUISVILLE AT UCONN (AAC). Both teams appear to be safe right now, but not nearly as far up the seed list as many were expecting. Louisville still doesn’t have a big win this year.

-OKLAHOMA STATE AT KANSAS (Big Twelve). I think Oklahoma State is good, but Kansas is looking like the best team in the Big Twelve right now and I don’t think they’ll drop this one at home.

OTHER HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-TOLEDO AT AKRON (MAC). This is a tough road test for the Rockets. If they want any hope at all of being on the bubble, they pretty much need to win out.

-TENNESSEE AT KENTUCKY (SEC). We currently have Kentucky in, and Tennessee right on the bubble, so this is a huge game for the Vols.

-SMU AT UCF (AAC). SMU is having their best season years, and is squarely on the bubble right now. They need to take care of business on the road against a UCF team that doesn’t look like it will make the field.

-FLORIDA STATE AT VIRGINIA (AAC). Both teams have been inconsistent, but both also appear to be solidly in the NCAA picture, so it’s a potential good resume win for both teams.

-BOSTON COLLEGE AT NORTH CAROLINA (AAC). One never knows what UNC is going to do.

-SETON HALL AT GEORGETOWN (Big East). Georgetown can’t afford to drop this one.

-WEST VIRGINIA AT KANSAS STATE (Big Twelve). K State has been solid at home and shouldn’t have too much trouble winning today.

-MANHATTAN AT FAIRFIELD (MAAC). If Manhattan wins out they may have a shot at landing inside the bubble, but anything short of that likely won’t be enough.

-ARKANSAS AT GEORGIA (SEC). Arkansas is right on the bubble and needs to take care of business against non tournament teams on the road. The road is where they Razorbacks have struggled, and they really need to show they can win a game like this.

-MISSISSIPPI STATE AT TEXAS A&M (SEC). Both teams have good records, but lack good wins. I’m not convinced that either will make it, but they’ve both done enough to warrant keeping an eye on.

-OKLAHOMA AT BAYLOR (Big Twelve). Both teams are solid, and both could use this win to improve their resume.

-USC AT COLORADO (Big Twelve). Colorado needs to adjust to life without Dinwiddie to demonstrate to the committee that they can win without him.

-NC STATE AT DUKE (ACC). Duke has struggled this year, but they should be able to get this one at home.

-ALABAMA AT MISSOURI (SEC). Mizzou has struggled big time in the past week, even at home against weaker teams. They cannot afford to let that continue and need to take care of business today.

-FORDHAM AT SAINT LOUIS (Atlantic Ten). SLU is steamrolling right now and a win will get them to 17-2 overall.

-LEMOYNE-OWEN (nondiv1) AT MEMPHIS. Seriously??

-NORTHWESTERN AT INDIANA (Big Ten). Indiana is coming off of a huge win against Wisconsin, and does not want to offset that with a bad loss today.

-DAYTON AT RICHMOND (Atlantic Ten). Dayton is really bubbly right now. Richmond has been somewhat disappointing and doesn’t look like a tournament team, but they’re still tough to beat at home, and one of the things Dayton MUST do is win on the road.

-INDIANA STATE AT WICHITA STATE (Missouri Valley). Indiana State appears to be the second best team in the MVC, and I have them just outside the bubble. If they can win this one, it will put them safely inside of it for now.

-DEPAUL AT VILLANOVA (Big East). Nova is still in the hunt for a #1 seed and needs to hold serve in this game.

-FLORIDA AT AUBURN (SEC). The Gators appear to be the best team in the SEC and shouldn’t have too much trouble picking this one up on the road.

-IOWA STATE AT TEXAS (Big Twelve). I have Texas outside the bubble, so this would be a huge win for the Longhorns if they can pick this one up.

-UCLA AT UTAH (Pac Twelve). Utah has played such a weak schedule that you pretty much have to ignore their bloated record. If they can’t win a game like this at home then they probably aren’t good enough to build their profile up enough to impress the committee.

-WAKE FOREST AT CLEMSON (AAC). Clemson is outside the bubble, but they may be able to reach it if they continue to string wins together.

-WASHINGTON STATE AT CALIFORNIA (Pac Twelve). Cal looks like a tournament team and should be able to hold serve at home.

-GONZAGA AT LMU (West Coast). Gonzaga has a small margin for error, and although LMU is not a tournament team, they may be tough to beat at home.

-CINCINNATI AT SOUTH FLORIDA (AAC). Cincinnati looks very good and should be able to add another road win to their profile tonight.

-MICHIGAN AT WISCONSIN (Big Ten). Michigan has been playing a lot better lately, but this is a huge order. I think they’re a solid tournament team and that their profile will continue to improve, but I don’t think they have it in them to beat one of the best teams in the country on the road.

-UNLV AT SAN DIEGO STATE (Mountain West). I’m so big on San Diego State that I think they’ve got a shot at the #1 line. They’ll have to win out to get there, though. Either way, this is a very good team.

-UMASS AT ELON. Strange out of conference game. UMass has struggled, but has managed to keep winning. It’ll be interesting to see what they do on the road against what appears to be the best team in the SoCon.

-NEW MEXICO AT FRESNO STATE (Mountain West). New Mexico is coming off a home loss to UNLV, and they’ve done very little that is noteworthy this year. If they drop this game, they’re going to be in real trouble.

-GEORGE WASHINGTON AT SAINT BONAVENTURE (Atlantic Ten). I think this is a road game that is tougher than it may appear. I really like this GW team and believe them to be solidly in the field right now, but their margin for error is far from infinite. Saint Bona, on the other hand has played some good ball, but come up just short in several of their games. They should be up for this one at home and could really make GW sweat.

-MICHIGAN STATE AT ILLINOIS (Big Ten). Illinois has had a horrible week and needs a big win to right the ship.

-CREIGHTON AT PROVIDENCE (Big East). Creighton has looked tough lately, but much of what they’ve done has come at home, so they need a solid road win to round out their profile and prove they aren’t just home court heroes.

-UTAH STATE AT BOISE STATE (Mountain West). Boise is good, but they did not challenge themselves out of conference and as a result don’t have any really notable wins. Their margin for error is small.

SOUTHERN UTAH at WEBER STATE, 9:00 PM Eastern (no TV)

The SCGD heads to Ogden, Utah tonight for a Big Sky battle between the Thunderbirds of Southern Utah and the Wildcats of Weber State.  Well, maybe the word battle is not the best to use here…as this game is not exactly projected to be anything more than a romp by Weber State.  KenPom is presently projecting a 23 point blowout by the Wildcats, and there is no real reason to believe he is wrong.

So why would a game that should be no contest be the SCGD?  As has been mentioned here several times, HoopsHD annually presents the “Centenary Award”, an award given to the worst team in Division I.  Last year’s award was easily given to a winless Grambling State team.  Although Grambling did manage a win against a non-D1 foe earlier this season, they have been the frontrunners to repeat all season long.  Until now.

Southern Utah is 1-13 on the season, with the lone victory being an 85-78 win over non-D1 Southwestern Arizona back on November 8.  They Adjusted Offense is the worst in Division 1 according to KenPom and their Adjusted Defense is not much better (342 out of 351).  These numbers have resulted in SUU sliding past Grambling to become KenPom’s worst team in D1, knocking Grambling out of a spot that they have held for almost two years.  While the margin of difference in ratings between the two teams is negligible, it is pretty clear that unless one of them wins a game, the Centenary Award battle will be close the rest of the season.