NEWS AND NOTES:
-We will be recording our Under the Radar Video Podcast tonight, which will likely be the final of the season in its current format. Next week, we will begin our nightly Championship Week Video Notebooks, so be sure and check us out tonight.
Speaking of Under the Radar, for Chad’s UTR Game of the Day – CLICK HERE
HIGHLIGHTED GAMES
-VIRGINIA AT WAKE FOREST (ACC). Virginia is battling injuries, and Wake Forest is battling not being good. Still, it’s never easy to win on the road, even if it’s a weaker team, and it’s even harder to do while injured.
-GEORGE MASON AT DAYTON (Atlantic Ten). Dayton is coming off a very damaging loss to Duquesne. If they lose this one it might be a knockout punch.
-DAVIDSON AT RHODE ISLAND (Atlantic Ten). This is a hugely important game between a Davidson team that’s right on the bubble, and a Rhody team that’s outside the bubble, but will have a chance to play their way in if they can finish really strongly. Both teams need to come in with a sense of desperation.
-INDIANA AT NORTHWESTERN (Big Ten). Indiana is in good shape, but could improve their profile with more true road wins, and this is one of their more winnable true road games.
-KENTUCKY AT MISSISSIPPI STATE (SEC). Kentucky is cruising to the #1 overall seed and isn’t likely to be derailed tonight.
-VCU AT RICHMOND (Atlantic Ten). This game is always fun. Richmond upset VCU at VCU earlier this year, albeit VCU was dealing with injuries at the time. They’re going to be jacked up for this one. As well as VCU has been playing, this isn’t the easiest game to win.
-WICHITA STATE AT INDIANA STATE (Missouri Valley). Wichita should win this, but Indiana State is somewhat formidable at home, and Wichita doesn’t want to get caught looking ahead to Saturday.
-UCF AT CINCINNATI (American). Cincinnati simply cannot afford to lose this one at home.
-TULANE AT TULSA (American). Tulsa is outside the bubble, but has played well their last couple of games. A slip up at home to a weak Tulane team may be too much to overcome.
-MARQUETTE AT BUTLER (Big East). Butler has struggled since losing a key player to injury, but should be able to take care of business at home in this one.
-BAYLOR AT IOWA STATE (Big Twelve). Both teams could end up as protected seeds, and a strong finish by Iowa State could get them as high as the #2 line.
-EVANSVILLE AT NORTHERN IOWA (Missouri Valley). Northern Iowa has been really impressive this year, especially at home. They fell to Evansville earlier in the season, but I don’t see them falling a second time tonight.
-DUKE AT VIRGINIA TECH (ACC). Duke continues to play like a #1 seed and they should get it if they keep going at the clip they’ve gone at all season long.
-FLORIDA STATE AT MIAMI FL (ACC). Miami is coming off a very disappointing loss to Louisville, and they need to get over it quick because they’re right on the bubble and can’t afford a loss to a non tournament team at home.
-SAN JOSE STATE AT COLORADO STATE (Missouri Valley). Colorado State has had a good season, and is hosting one of the weakest teams in the country. A loss in a game like this could make a good season look really bad in a hurry.
-ILLINOIS AT IOWA (Big Ten). Both appear to be in the field, but both need some big wins to feel completely safe. Illinois has been playing better, but a notable road win would really help their profile. Wins of any kind would help Iowa’s profile as well.
-GEORGIA AT OLE MISS (SEC). Georgia is right on the bubble, and could use a big road win like this to get them safely inside of it. Ole Miss has been playing really well. They haven’t racked up any monster wins, but have a lot of decent ones and can continue to climb up the seed list if they keep it up.
-FRESNO STATE AT WYOMING (Mountain West). Wyoming is a long shot, but they’re still in the discussion. They won’t be if they lose this game, though.
-WASHINGTON AT UCLA (Pac Twelve). Washington is in a bit of a slump. They are coming off a win over rival Wazzu, but Wazzu isn’t any good and Washington barely beat them. They’d lost seven straight prior to that. UCLA is on the bubble and can’t afford a home loss to a team like that.
-OREGON AT CALIFORNIA (Pac Twelve). Oregon is right on the bubble, but one of the things that’s lousy about their profile is a lack of road wins. Cal isn’t a tournament team, but any road wins would be really helpful for the Ducks.
Bracket Projections (and critique): February 23rd
NEWS AND NOTES
-For Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day, and other notable games – CLICK HERE
-We will be recording our Bracket Racket Video Podcast tonight, so it will be posted either late tonight or early tomorrow. Be sure and check it out.
BRACKET NOTES
Bracket was updated by Chad Sherwood on Monday, February 23rd at 1:05am, est. David’s opinions on the bracket are located immediately below
Last four out: Tulsa, UCLA, Stanford, Pittsburgh
Next four out: Boise State, Davidson, Wyoming, Rhode Island
DAVID’S NOTES ON CHAD’S BRACKET
-Starting at the top, Chad has Gonzaga on the #1 line. If you’ve been following the Hoops HD Video Podcasts where we build the brackets, you know that the Hoops HD consensus disagrees with him and feels Villanova should be up there instead. I disagree with the consensus and agree with Chad. Chances are this is an argument both of us will lose because Gonzaga’s paper just isn’t anywhere close to Villanova’s, especially after the Wildcats won at Butler, but I do believe Gonzaga’s TEAM is better than Villanova’s, which is why I will continue to argue that they belong up on the #1 line. I realize that the Zags had to sweat out Saint Mary’s over the weekend. But, part of me was highly impressed by that win. They were down double digits in the second half, on the road, against a team that’s tough to beat at home, in front of a crowd that was absolutely bonkers, and for the last ten minutes (or so) of that game they outscored SMC by 20+ points.
-I really like Northern Iowa on the #3 line as well. This is a team that is kind of laying in the weeds. They don’t play in a conference that gets a lot of TV exposure, and when you look at their profile, there aren’t a lot of big time wins on it. There are, however, a lot of decent wins. This is a team that won at SFA, lost in double overtime at VCU, and their only other loss was by three points at Evansville. They’re basically four points away from being undefeated, and in my opinion aren’t that far off from last year’s Wichita State team (who I know lost early in the NCAAs, but they lost in the final seconds to the eventual national runner up). That being said, while I agree with Chad, I don’t think the actual selection committee will. The real committee isn’t as smart as we are and Northern Iowa’s paper is just too weak to impress them, especially if they value high quality wins. I do think they’ll end up as a protected seed if they win out, but will land on the #4 line, not the #3 line.
-Louisville on the #5 line is interesting. I haven’t been overly impressed with Louisville at any point this year (at least not by protected seed standards), and now that they will be without Chris Jones, I don’t see my level of being impressed increasing any time soon. I actually wouldn’t be surprised to see them go into the tank a little bit and fall off even further than that. In looking at some of the teams on the #12 line, Louisville may have a very difficult time getting out of the Round of 64.
-Ole Miss on the #7 seems kind of high, but they keep winning. They’re not beating high caliber teams, but they are beating decent teams, which is more than can be said for most of the teams below them.
-Dayton suffered an atrocious loss over the weekend at Duquesne. I’m impressed with what Dayton has done given their limited personnel this year, but that being said, you can’t factor that circumstance into it. When you look at what they’ve done, they’ve had to sweat out multiple games against weak teams. To their credit they’ve won most them, but going down to teams as low as the #11 line I don’t think Dayton is as good as those teams, and would struggle (and likely lose) to pretty much everyone on Chad’s #11 line head to head. I think they’re in the field, but to have them on the #9 line indicates they’d be among the first 36 in, and I’m just not seeing that. I know Chad loves the Atlantic Ten, but gee whiz.
-The #9 line is probably about where Ohio State ends up if the season ended today, but I’m not even convinced they’re that good. The Buckeyes are 16-1 at home, but their best home wins probably came against Indiana and Maryland, who are a combined 7-11 in true road games. Their best win away from home is probably Minnesota. That’s a pretty weak profile, despite them being in the rankings for most of the season for whatever reason.
-Oregon has just two true road wins, and they don’t exactly play in a league full of snake pits. That’s a serious problem. I can see them making the field, but not as high as the #10 line. It is medicinally legal in Oregon. Perhaps Chad has been spending too much time out there.
-Which brings us to Chad’s bubble!! Now, the teams he actually selected for his field aren’t evidence of him being completely insane, but when you look at the teams he’s looking as being just outside the bubble, maybe he has been spending too much time self medicating. How the hell is Tulsa the next team in line?? I realize they blew Temple to kingdom come last night, but they have a lot of road wins against teams who’s low average home attendance isn’t that far off from their high (meaning bad) RPIs.
-Stanford can’t punch their way out of a wet paper bag lately.
-And Wyoming?? Okay, now I KNOW he’s smoking something. Wyoming is much improved this year, but they’re not a tournament caliber team. I’m not understanding the love for them, even to the point to where they’d just be outside anyone’s bubble. When you sit down to watch Wyoming play, it is necessary to have a hammer alongside you so you can beat your face with it. It’s that agonizing sometimes. There are teams on the #14 line of Chad’s bracket that I think would school Wyoming.
-Now, for the UTR portion of the bracket. I still don’t get Chad’s fascination with Harvard on the #13 line. I think that’s at least one line too high. Fortunately, I think there is a team on the #14 line that is at least one lines too low, and that’s Iona. Despite some close calls, Iona has won 15 of their last 16 games. I know they don’t have any top 100 wins, so the paper is very weak, but I do believe this Iona TEAM is as good as many of the teams on the bubble, even if their paper isn’t. They’ve won ten true road games, including games at Manhattan and Rider, who both have very strong home records. If you’re a #3 seed, you do not want to play this Iona team. Then again, Tim Cluess is the coach, so if in the round of 64 Maryland were to find themselves down 10pts with about 90 seconds to play, they’d still stand a very good chance of winning the game.