Field of 68 – March 10

Here is my Field of 68, through games of March 10, broken down by conference.  Note that the winner of the conference is the team that I feel is the best team in the conference, which may at times not be the first place team.

America East (1): Vermont
ACC (4): Miami, North Carolina State, Duke, North Carolina
Atlantic Sun (1): Florida Gulf Coast
Atlantic Ten (5): Butler, Virginia Commonwealth, La Salle, Saint Louis, Temple
Big East (8): Syracuse, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Cincinnati, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Villanova
Big Sky (1): Montana
Big South (1): Liberty
Big Ten (7): Michigan, Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois
Big Twelve (5): Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Iowa State
Big West (1): Pacific
Colonial (1): Northeastern
Conference USA (1): Memphis
Horizon (1): Valparaiso
Ivy (1): Harvard
Metro Atlantic (1): Iona
MAC (1): Ohio University
MEAC (1): Norfolk State
Missouri Valley (2): Creighton, Wichita State
Mountain West (5): New Mexico, UNLV, Colorado State, San Diego State, Boise State
Northeast (1): Long Island University
Ohio Valley (1): Belmont
Pac 12 (5): Oregon, Arizona, UCLA, Colorado, California
Patriot (1): Bucknell
SEC (3): Florida, Missouri, Tennessee
Southern (1): Davidson
Southland (1): Stephen F Austin
SWAC (1): Southern
Summit (1): South Dakota State
Sun Belt (2): Middle Tennessee, Florida International
West Coast (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary’s
WAC (1): Denver

Last four in: Iowa State, Tennessee, Middle Tennessee, St. Mary’s
First four out: Iowa, Massachusetts, Kentucky, Ole Miss
Others considered: Maryland, Virginia, Charlotte, Providence, Baylor, Southern Miss, Stanford, Arizona State, Washington, Alabama, Louisiana Tech

A few notes about this week’s field:

The first of the two biggest changes from last week is the deletion of Virginia, a team that has proven it can beat some of the best in the nation while at the same time proviing it can lose to some of the worst, and their replacement with Iowa State that scored a pair of wins this week including one over a very good Oklahoma State team.

The second change was the deletion of Kentucky, despite their win over Florida.  This was not because Kentucky is not very close to being in the field, but rather due to the team that knocked them out.  Middle Tennessee lost Sunday night in the Sun Belt semifinals.  While MTSU has not really beaten anyone of note, the fact is they won 28 games this season.  If they get left out, it would set an all-time record for most wins left out of the field.  Iona received a somewhat perplexing spot in the First Four last season, and I can see MTSU receiving a similar bid this year.

Despite Kentucky falling out of the field this week, I believe the Wildcats are very close to making it in, and if they take care of business in the SEC quarterfinals, it may be enough to get in.  Tennessee just barely nosed out Kentucky for the final spot and if I re-did this field half a dozen times I would probably switch those two teams around every other time.  I also saw Ole Miss move back closer to being in the field after holding off Alabama this week.  The Rebels have a lot of work to do still, starting with a potential SEC quarterfinal against Missouri.

As for the single bid leagues, I have switched Pacific in for the Big West champion after they beat Long Beach fairly easily this weekend to tie for the league’s top spot (though Long Beach is still the #1 seed).  I also moved Denver in as the WAC champions, though Louisiana Tech is still on my board as an at-large possibility.  I don’t think they will be able to get in without the automatic bid, though if they beat Denver in the WAC finals, Joe Scott’s Pioneers may get a serious look.  Finally, I am now picking Ohio U to win the MAC and did not even put Akron under consideration.  Akron recently suspended their starting point guard indefinitely due to an arrest for some serious drug-related allegations, and then lost to Kent State.  While the Zips do have a bye into the MAC semifinals, right now I do not see them winning even that game, and they just are not the team they were a few weeks ago.

Finally, here is my S-Curve of the 68 teams:

1. Duke
2. Gonzaga
3. Indiana
4. Louisville
5. Georgetown
6. Kansas
7. Michigan
8. Michigan State
9. Miami
10. Ohio State
11. New Mexico
12. Marquette
13. Oklahoma State
14. Florida
15. Kansas State
16. Syracuse
17. Wisconsin
18. Arizona
19. Pittsburgh
20. Saint Louis
21. Minnesota
22. UNLV
23. VCU
24. Notre Dame
25. Butler
26. UCLA
27. North Carolina
28. Oklahoma
29. Colorado State
30. Creighton
31. Memphis
32. Temple
33. Illinois
34. North Carolina State
35. California
36. Cincinnati
37. Missouri
38. Oregon
39. Villanova
40. Wichita State
41. Boise State
42. San Diego State
43. Colorado
44. Belmont
45. La Salle
46. Saint Mary’s
47. Iowa State
48. Denver
49. Bucknell
50. Middle Tennessee
51. Tennessee
52. Ohio University
53. Davidson
54. Stephen F. Austin
55. Montana
56. South Dakota State
57. Valparaiso
58. Northeastern
59. Harvard
60. Pacific
61. Iona
62. Norfolk State
63. Florida Gulf Coast
64. Vermont
65. Florida International
66. Long Island University
67. Southern
68. Liberty

Posted in Bracketology | Comments Off on Field of 68 – March 10

Conference Tournament Notebook: Sunday, March 10th

211 TEAMS REMAIN!!! The breakdown is below

-ACC – 12 (Miami, FL (at-large), Duke (at-large), North Carolina (at-large), NC State (at-large), Virginia (under consideration), Maryland (under consideration), Florida State, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Clemson, Virginia Tech)

-AMERICA EAST – 4 (Albany, Stony Brook, Vermont, UMBC)

-ATLANTIC TEN – 12 (Saint Louis (at-large), VCU (at-large), La Salle (under consideration), Temple (under consideration), UMass (under consideration), Xavier (under consideration), Charlotte (under consideration), Saint Joseph’s, Richmond, Dayton, George Washington)

-ATLANTIC SUN – 1 (FGCU – champion)

-BIG TWELVE – 10 (Kansas (at-large), Kansas State (at-large), Oklahoma State (at-large), Oklahoma (at-large), Iowa State (under consideration), Baylor (under consideration), Texas, West Virginia, Texas Tech, West Virginia)

-BIG EAST – 14 (Louisville (at-large), Georgetown (at-large), Marquette (at-large), Pittsburgh (at-large), Notre Dame (at-large), Syracuse (at-large), Villanova (under consideration), Cincinnati (under consideration), Saint John’s (under consideration), Providence, Rutgers, Seton Hall, South Florida, DePaul)

-BIG SKY – 7 (Montana, Weber State, North Dakota, Montana State, Northern Colorado, Southern Utah, Northern Arizona)

-BIG SOUTH – 2 (Liberty, Charleston Southern)

-BIG TEN – 12 (Indiana (at-large), Michigan (at-large), Michigan State (at-large), Ohio State (at-large), Wisconsin (at-large), Illinois (at-large), Minnesota (at-large), Iowa (under consideration), Purdue, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State)

-BIG WEST – 8 (Long Beach, Cal Poly, Pacific, UC Irvine, Hawaii, UC Davis, UC Santa Barbara, Cal State Fullerton)

-COLONIAL – 4 (George Mason, Northeastern, James Madison, Delaware)

-CONFERENCE USA – 11 (Memphis (at-large), Southern Miss (under consideration), UTEP, East Carolina, Tulsa, Houston, UAB, Tulane, Marshall, SMU, Rice)

-HORIZON LEAGUE – 2 (Wright State, Valparaiso)

-IVY – 1 (Harvard (champion))

-MAC – 11 (Akron (under consideration), Ohio, Western Michigan, Kent State, Ball State, Bowling Green, Eastern Michigan, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Northern Illinois, Miami OH)

-METRO ATLANTIC – 4 (Niagara, Iona, Manhattan, Fairfield)

-MEAC – 13 (Norfolk State, North Carolina Central, Hampton, Savannah State, Morgan State, Delaware State, North Carolina A&T, Bethune Cookman, Coppin State, Florida A&M, Howard, South Carolina State, Maryland Eastern Shore)

-MISSOURI VALLEY – 2 (Creighton (at-large), Wichita State (at-large)

-MOUNTAIN WEST – 9 (New Mexico (at-large), Colorado State (at-large), UNLV (at-large), San Diego State (at-large), Boise State (at-large), Air Force (under consideration), Fresno State, Wyoming, Nevada)

-NORTHEAST – 2 (LIU Brooklyn, Mount Saint Mary’s)

-OHIO VALLEY – 1 (Belmont (champion)

-PAC TWELVE – 12 (UCLA (at-large), California (at-large), Arizona (at-large), Oregon (under consideration), Colorado (under consideration), Arizona State (under consideration),Washington, USC, Stanford, Utah, Washington State, Oregon State)

-PATRIOT LEAGUE – 2 (Bucknell, Lafayette)

-SEC – 14 (Florida (at-large), Missouri (under consideration), Kentucky (under consideration), Ole Miss (under consideration), Alabama (under consideration), Tennessee (under consideration), Arkansas (under consideration), Georgia, LSU, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, South Carolina, Mississippi State, Auburn)

-SOUTHERN CONFERENCE – 4 (Davidson, Elon, College of Charleston, Appalachian State)

-SOUTHLAND – 8 (Stephen F Austin (under consideration), Northwestern State, Oral Roberts, Southeast Louisiana, Nicholls State, Sam Houston State, Central Arkansas, McNeese State)

-SUMMIT LEAGUE – 6 (South Dakota State (under consideration), Western Illinois, North Dakota State, Oakland, IPFW, UMKC)

-SUN BELT – 4 (Middle Tennessee (under consideration), Arkansas State, Florida International, Western Kentucky)

-SWAC – 7 (Southern, Jackson State, Alcorn State, Prarie View A&M, Alabama State, Alabama A&M, Grambling)

-WAC – 10 (Louisiana Tech (under consideration) Denver (under consideration), New Mexico State, Utah State, Texas Arlington, Idaho, Texas State, San Jose State, TX San Antonio, Seattle)

-WEST COAST – 2 (Gonzaga (at-large), Saint Mary’s (under consideration)

 

-More analysis and breakdowns to come later.

For all of today’s action, check out Chad’s viewing guide linked below.

https://hoopshd.com/2013/03/10/conference-tournament-viewing-guide-march-10-2013/

Posted in News and Notes | Comments Off on Conference Tournament Notebook: Sunday, March 10th

Conference Tournament Viewing Guide – March 10, 2013

Here is the list of conference tournament games on the schedule for today, together with their available television/webstreaming options.  Please note that I only list webstreams for games without national television coverage, even if a stream may also be available. “Local TV” means that the game does not have full national coverage and you should check your local listings.  (PPV) means that there is a charge for the webstream.

(all times are eastern)

Sunday, March 10

America East Semifinal:
5:00 PM – (2) Vermont vs (6) Maryland-Baltimore County, espn3
7:30 PM – (1) Stony Brook vs (4) Albany, espn3

Big South Championship:
12:00 PM – (S1) Charleston Southern vs (N5) Liberty, ESPN2

Colonial Semifinal:
2:00 PM – (1) Northeastern vs (4) George Mason, NBC Sports Network
4:30 PM – (2) Delaware vs (3) James Madison, NBC Sports Network

Metro Atlantic Semifinal:
2:00 PM – (1) Niagara vs (4) Iona, espn3
4:30 PM – (6) Manhattan vs (7) Fairfield, espn3

Missouri Valley Championship:
2:00 PM – (1) Creighton vs (2) Wichita State, CBS

Southern Semifinal:
6:00 PM – (1) Davidson vs (4) Appalachian State, espn3
8:30 PM – (2) Elon vs (3) College of Charleston, espn3

Summit Quarterfinal:
7:00 PM – (4) Oakland vs (5) IP-Fort Wayne, Local TV/Fox College Sports Atlantic
9:30 PM – (3) North Dakota State vs (6) UMKC, Local TV/Fox College Sports Atlantic

Sun Belt Semifinal:
7:30 PM – (1) Middle Tennessee vs (4) Florida International, Local TV/espn3
10:00 PM – (2) Arkansas State vs (6) Western Kentucky, Local TV/espn3

Posted in CBB on TV | 1 Comment

Conference Tournament Brackets Part 2

Below are the links to the conference tournaments brackets that will be announced on March 9 and 10.  This post will be updated as they are released.

ACC

Atlantic 10

Big 12

Big East

Big Sky

Big Ten

Big West

Conference USA

Great West

Mid-American

Mountain West

Pac Twelve

SEC

Southland

WAC

Posted in News and Notes | Comments Off on Conference Tournament Brackets Part 2

The Fourth Day Continues: Waiting Line… Games

On the fourth day of conference tourneys… the Buffet is STILL giving.

It was a pretty crazy week in the Waiting Line… so much so, that as today’s Buffet was being crafted, Kentucky went from definitely out (losing at Georgia) to almost certainly in as of now (today’s win over Florida)….

Let’s take a look, and since this is all happening in real time, here’ how Buffetology looks as of 12pm PT, March 9 (only adjust made for Robert Morris’ loss in the NEC tournament)

 

 Now, we’ve made repeated references to Pack of Wolves Wednesday, the carnage is reflected in the Buffetology above.  There were a total of 16 games featuring teams who could feel good about their NCAA tournament chances versus those who either could not, should not, or don’t even know what that feeling is.  Only 56% of those teams were successful.  The names of the winning schools Wednesday: Washington St, Nebraska, Georgia Tech, Xavier, Stanford, Iowa St, and Villanova. Now for Villanova, Stanford & Xavier, Wednesday was huge.  For good reasons.  For UCLA, California, Oklahoma St, Saint Louis, and especially Georgetown & Miami, it was huge for separate reasons.   Throw in Southern Miss losing to Marshall, Illinois losing to Iowa, Virginia falling to Florida St, Wisconsin getting essentially bombed on by Michigan St, Colorado shaking off the Roberson injury to sweep Oregon, New Mexico St rendering La Tech an autobid hopeful, Texas beating Baylor, (you keeping up?) Louisville dousing Cincy, the aforementioned Kentucky loss to Georgia, Boise St losing, and Indiana dropping their 4th Big Ten game (but Ohio St getting that road win CBS so desperately wanted them to have) it was just how you want the week leading to the weekend of the first conference tournaments/last regular season games.

Waiting Line… Games for Saturday:

In the books:

Kentucky 67-Florida 57: After a pair of ugly road losses, the post-Nerlens Noel edition of Kentucky seemed destined for the NIT, but a show-me performance today versus Florida, and we put Kentucky back in (well, hypothetically, since no Buffetology was published, of course), having been in the middle of Buffetology construction as that went final.  Florida now sees themselves on the 3 line. (we will wait for standings to finalize and brackets to come out to really tell you where Florida could go seed-wise)

 Kentucky’s back. Back again. Kentucky’s back. Tell a friend. They’re in. They’re out. They’re in again.  The Waiting Line… isn’t pretty, so you beat Florida this time of year, that’s  going to make the Buffet notice.  After Georgia we wanted them out, now we put them not only in, but ahead of the even the final four in. That’s solidifying things for yourself.

UCLA 61 Washington 54. UCLA wasn’t totally in the Waiting Line…, more like 1 ½ feet in, ½ foot out after the loss to Washington State, more like “on alert” that similar performances will not be tolerating for too long, and Washington, perhaps due to the “strength” of everyone else, was creeping towards consideration, well UCLA but an end to that.

Iowa State 83 West Virginia 74. A loss here wouldn’t have been killer, but as a follow up to their win over Oklahoma State, this a nice solidifier not only for Iowa State’s chances, but also as a sign of which direction they are headed in.  Iowa State was among the last four in at last blush, but they’ll get a long look tomorrow night once the weekend shakes out to pop ahead of some just ahead of them.

Ole Miss 81 LSU 67 You don’t beat LSU and do anything good for your chances, but you bust them open in Death Valley like that, and you definitely notice that they want back in the Buffet.  For now they are at the front of the Waiting Line… but still not quite in.

Saint Louis 78 La Salle 54.  Hmm, maybe we take back what we just said about Ole Miss still being out.

Minnesota 73 Purdue 89. Minnesota isn’t going anywhere just yet, but this is two straight bad losses, and some horrible defense to boot, and eye is being kept on them next week, because they’re teetering towards the line.  There’s a wealth of nice wins that others won’t have, but their string of performances suggest maybe they don’t belong.

Iowa 74 Nebraska 60. Maybe we should ask Minnesota how difficult the RED ALERT can be… we won’t, but just commend Iowa for managing to stay in the conversation even if they did nothing  to enhance the discussion.

NC  State 67 Florida St 71.  This was never going to be listed here, because it seemed irrelevant, then NC State made it relevant, much like Cincy below, this game just says bad things about where NC State is headed, even if it doesn’t mean their invitation is in jeopardy.

In play:

Boise State hosting San Diego St: What a huge win this would be for a Boise St team who’s been teetering on the Waiting Line… fence most of the year.

Georgia at Alabama. Only so many teams can absorb a loss to Georgia right now, Alabama, especially at home,  you are not one of them.

South Florida at Cincinnati:  Cincy isn’t actually in the Waiting Line… but they’ve sunk to a 10 seed, it’s time to stem that tide.

Missouri @ Tennessee – Missouri is solidly safe, almost cemented at the 8 seed slot, and this wouldn’t be a bad loss.  Tennessee isn’t solid anywhere, and this is almost a gift of a game, Missouri will look like a solid win on their resume, but they play like a sub100 team on the road, we’ll notice if Tennessee doesn’t get the win, especially when we’re splitting hairs at the bottom of the Buffet invitation list.

Arizona St @ Arizona – Another free falling lock (Arizona) this time versus a free falling Waiting Liner…  (Arizona State), something will have to give.

Oregon St @ Colorado – Colorado already showed themselves bit to be ok with Andre Roberson.  They’ll need to do so, he should be back for the P12 tournament, but if not, and he can’t get back at all, the Committee will evaluate them without him, don’t lose to Oregon St, no matter what, but especially if that’s who don’t want the committee to think you are.

Oklahoma @ TCU – Kansas can get by with a random loss to TCU, Oklahoma, you are not Kansas

Illinois State @ Wichita St – This is the classic MVC conundrum.  Illinois State is not a bad team.  They should’ve been a higher MVC seed and if they hadn’t waited, apparently, until now, to be the team they should’ve been, they’d be in the Waiting Line… with Wichita. But, if Wichita loses, even though it isn’t a death knell, it does give all other big conference teams a week to prove themselves up while Wichita has a blowout loss to Creighton and (hypothetically) this loss weighing on the committee’s minds.  Advice from the Buffet: As good as Carmichael and Co. are, Shockers, don’t lose here.

Kansas at Baylor: You can’t lose to Kansas and hurt your chances. Unless you get blown out at home, and unless you playing like Baylor has been, and this game has become a near must.  Without it, they’ll need to do some SERIOUS Big12 tourney damage, with it, they’ll probably resemble Kentucky after they beat Florida today.

 

Xavier at Butler – The Musketeers sort of snuck up out of nowhere, didn’t they? Beat Memphis on February 26, Saint Louis earlier this week, VCU on Feb 23, and suddenly, this win might go a long way to wiping out a lot of the bad.  Without, there’s probably not enough there to support a plate at the Buffet, but with it, and X gets a long look leading into and through the A10 tournament.

Murray @ Belmont – Belmont was actually a line ahead of the last 4 teams in at last Buffet, but not sure they’d stay there with a loss here. Murray isn’t bad loss, but nonetheless, Belmont loses the championship and things get tense for them.

Louisiana Tech @ Denver – For the WAC regular season title.  Not real Waiting Line… implications, but both could be teams that make a higher seed’s life miserable next week.

UCF @ Southern Miss – Personally the Buffet thinks we can turn out the lights, the party’s over for USM after the home loss to Marshall, but they still linger around some people’s last 4 or 8 out, so remind them that while SOMEONE still believes, they ought to remember to beat the teams they should.

San Diego @ Saint Mary’s – As of right now, as long as they get to the WCC final, St Mary’s is likely getting in. But it’s weakly scheduled, soft resume that may or may not deserve it, so don’t lose to USD, because even the tepid Buffet support will go up in smoke.  

As always, questions, comments (but not about grammar/editing, the Buffet wants you to have knowledge, not a Strunk & White lesson.  And we make this promise, you get HoopsHD through critical mass, and the Buffet will be succinct, grammatically correct, and still maintain the same level of entertainment.  Vow made) please bring them to the Buffet at either the comment section below, to reach the Buffet at inthebuffet@gmail.com, or on Twitter at @inthebuffet.

 

We will be back with a look at Scanning the Scene… where 1-15 conference seasons = semifinals or 11-20 overall records = tournament finals.  Or 9 game winning streaks have you breeze through higher seeds and on to your championship game.

Posted in News and Notes, The Buffet | Comments Off on The Fourth Day Continues: Waiting Line… Games

On the Fourth Day of Conference Tourneys, the Buffet gave to me…

On the Fourth Day of Conference Tourneys, the Buffet gave to me…

 

Spanning the scene

Huge Buffet

Killer Top Seeds

An extra day of conference tourneys…

 

And, as though it had only been 14 hours, we’re back.  Make this a breakfast buffet. Today, the main line has your America East, CAA, and Summit League previews.  Plus, a new special called “Spanning the Scene.” We here at the Buffet realized that we often preview, sometimes give you a last night in, but often leave the conference tourneys hanging in pursuit of the next tipping tourney, and sometimes, yes sometimes, you want to have another helping of what we made on Thursday.  WANT NO LONGER.  We will take a look at the tournament progression to date and see where we stand.  We’ll also prime you for today’s generous portion of In the Waiting Line.. affairs, and take a look back at the carnage that was Pack of Wolves Wednesday.  As always, please consult the tremendous Daily Viewing Guide to know what’s on, when, and how you can watch it: https://hoopshd.com/2013/03/09/conference-tournament-viewing-guide-march-9-2013/

For now, let’s head to the Northeast for the

2014 AMERICA EAST MEN’S BASKETBALL CHAMPIONSHIP PRESENTED BY SEFCU

March 8-10, SEFCU Arena at the University of Albany, Albany, NY

March 16 @ Highest Remaining Seed

Is this year the year? After their 3rd conference title in 4 years but 0 tournament titles, is Stony Brook ready to break through with their first NCAA tournament appearance in the 14th year participating in Division 1, and if it happens, how embarrassed should Northwestern feel?  After a single game separated the Seawolves and Vermont for their previous regular season titles, Stony Brook cleared the Catamounts and BU by 3 games, as freshman Jameel Warner provided the extra punch SBU needed to really get a stranglehold on the conference (this has been a banner year for Stony Brook athletics, who advanced to the College World Series for the first time last summer (first team ever from the America East and first team from New York in 30 years)).  He’s joined by Do-It-All Tommy Brenton, who won’t light the stat sheet on fire, but just seems to be everywhere, as well as Anthony Jackson & Dave Coley. Stony Brooks comes in ranked tops in the conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency (31st in the country for that matter) and sit at an impressive 57th overall in the KenPom (www.kenpom.com) rankings.  They come having won six straight, including a 65-48 win over Vermont.  The best part, for them and for us, is coach Steve Pikiell, who has lived through the Div1/AmEast transitional lean years, has stocked the cupboard, as Coley & Jackson are only juniors, and Warney is the next big SBU thing as just a freshman.

Wait, where’s Boston U? Despite tying for second with Vermont, you’ll look endlessly if you try to find their quarterfinal matchup tomorrow.  Apparently announced before transferring conferences was vogue, Boston U will lace them up in the Patriot League next year, and America East, perhaps training at the Phil Martelli school of the code of transferring has banned them from participating in the conference tournament.  Don’t mind that they played an entire conference slate, these aren’t the Terriers you’re looking for…  You know who’s the most psyched about this (even more than the top seeds who now permanently avoid BU), it’s Binghamton, the 1-15, 11th place finisher, would be home planning spring break already, but the ouster of Boston U, means the tournament needs a 10th team, and apparently any will qualify.

Vermont. I mean, would it be an America East preview without Catamount Chat? The AmEast’s second place team won 6 of 7 midseason, and it was believed that it was time, they were going to reassume control of the league and go from there, but from there they only went into a 2 game losing streak, that seemed to have been righted in time for conference tournament play, only to fall to Hartford, at home, on senior night.  But Brian Voekel, Clancy Rugg (all-name candidate), Luke Apfeld, Sando Carissimo and crew still play that suffocating style that always plays well in the tournament (ask Michigan St, Wisconsin or the John Chaney Temple Owls) which means you can’t ignore them, even if they lose to Maine & Rhode Island.

Who Should Win: Time for a new America East coronation, and Stony Brook’s first time eat at the Buffet with the rest of the field of 68.

If not them, who? Can’T ignore Albany, the home standing Great Danes get home cooking until the final, which isn’t a decisive advantage, but you get to a final, win a couple games, and suddenly momentum can be a funny thing.  This team didn’t exactly light the world on fire this year, but they did notch a win in Seattle against Washington, and regardless of Washington’s rough year, that’s still a cross country trip at the beginning of the season, in a sneaky tough place to play (Hec Edmundson gets LOUD, the Buffet has been)… and Mike Black and Jacob Iati can score in the America East as well as anyone…

Hartford. The Hawks come in having won 6 of 8, including an end of regular season road win over Vermont and a 5 point win hosting Stony Brook, so they’ve shown the goods in conference… and we like stars in the tournaments, especially from a below the line sleeper, and Mark Nwakamma is just that, the sophomore averaged 14.7 (up 5 points from his freshman season) and 5.5 rebounds per game this year. Plus, they’ve got Jack Sikma’s son Nate.  No work if he just acts tall and stands behind the 3pt line bombing away or not, but we’d like him too.  Future hopes abound here, as only 1 senior gets meaningful minutes, and even he, John Peterson, doesn’t get 20 per game of those.

Best Non-Conference Win: Albany at Washington, 63-62

It’s a Stony Brook World…

2013 America East Player of the Year: Tommy Brenton, Stony Brook

2013 America East Defensive Player of the Year: Tommy Brenton, Stony Brook

2013 America East Freshman of the Year: Jameel Warney, Stony Brook

2013 America East Coach of the Year: Steve Pikiell, Stony Brook

2012-13 America East First Team:

Tommy Brenton, Stony Brook

Mike Black, Albany

D.J. Irving, Boston U (no, it’s totally cool that a kid this good has to miss a year of being able to make the NCAAs because his school is, gulp, DOING WHAT EVERY OTHER SCHOOL IN THE COUNTRY IS DOING)

Mark Nwakamma, Hartford

Brian Voekel, Vermont

America East 2013 Jack Leasure Madbomber Award Candidate:

Jacob Iati, Albany, 84/203, 31 games, 2.7/game, 41%

America East Gregory Douglas Ott Award Candidate:  Tommy Brenton, Stony Brook, 2.3

THE SUMMIT LEAGUE CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT AT THE FALLS

March 9-12, Sioux Falls Arena, Sioux Falls, ND

Now this one has all the makings of a good one, South Dakota St, the defending conference tournament champion is your top seed, and they feature not-to-be missed star, Nate Wolters.  Then there’s new to the top of the conference scene, Western Illinois, who other than being unable to beat South Dakota St, have a ridiculously great nickname, the Leathernecks, and a playing style that suits it – giving up 52.6 points per game (#2 in the nation!) and slow the game down to a point of suffocation that lulls opponents to sleep long enough for their inept offense to score JUST enough points to win.  The Golden Grizzlies are back, but they are just quit missing something, not quite the offensive showcase they have been with Reggie Hamilton, Keith Benson & Dominique Morrison, but they did take out both Dakota States, so they can’t be simply dismissed.  Then there’s the wildcard as the #3 seed – who have welcomed Taylor Braun back after he missed 10 games with a foot injury, fully loaded, there could be a run in the Bison

So Dakota State – featuring the league’s far and away best player (take a look at the minute by minute in their loss at Murray State after Wolters tweaked his back for evidence), this team ran through the Summit League at 13-3, but we would’ve thought they would have played to an overall profile more Waiting Line-able.  We can forgive the Cal St Bakersfield loss because that’s when Wolters first hurt his back, and that game meant nothing to them at that point, but losses to Hofstra, South Dakota, and blowout defeats at the hands of Minnesota and Belmont (by 27) are less defensible.   But that’s more of a look at the Jackrabbits through an at-large prism, for the purposes of this weekend, this is a squad that lost a few of road games in conference, but otherwise tore through the league, winning games by an average 16.7 points, and there main point of weakness (playing on the road where they went 7-9) is offset a bit by the tournament being housed in Sioux Falls.

No Dakota State – Getting healthy and feeling good. That’s the banner North Dakota State carries into this weekend. Star Taylor Braun is back, and they carry a two game win streak coming in and at full strength, granted that was against Utah Valley & Nebraska-Omaha, but given that they were no better than a .500 team leading into that, it’s a welcome change, and something no doubt will be used by them to signal a sign of things to come.  This was the best team in conference, from the eyeball and KenPom test, with Braun in the lineup (wins over South Dakota St and Oakland provide strong evidence of that), and Braun together with Marshall Bjoklund will make them a force, and the Buffet silently pulling for an All-Dakota State final to give us a battle of Summit heavyweight – it helps greatly that UMKC snagged the 6 seed, which should provide NDSU with a virtual first round bye.

Who Should Win: With two games under his belt, and one more tune up in the first round,  before a semifinal battle with Western Illinois, we see Taylor Braun getting up to speed, and then providing a great star versus star battle in the final with Nate Wolters, but ultimately, it’ll be whether Jordan Dykstra and Chad White can step up more than Marshall Bjorklund, TravVonn Wright and Lawrence Alexander, and that overall team depth and 68% FG percentage for Bjorklund just makes us think it’ll be a Bison Bison world.  It’s a battle of the top offensively efficient versus the top defensively efficient, and we wonder how much that O-efficiency will improve for NDSU with Braun back, and as a solid defensive player in his own right, there shouldn’t be much slippage on that end of the floor either.

If not them, then who: Braun’s injury opened the door for another team to grab the #2 spot, and Leathernecks were that team.  After getting lured into a shootout against Nebraska-Omaha to open the conference season, I mean who doesn’t, WIU settled in. Totals of 112, 92, 83, 85, 119, 113, and 104 were the common theme, and their grind it out, get in your face style can frustrate opponents to the point of submission.  Granted, they went 0-2 versus So Dak St and Oakland (and beat NDSU 50-42 without Braun), but the formula for overcoming talent deficiencies is there and that’s when Terrell Parks (who LOCKS IT DOWN on D) and Ceola Clark III can make just enough shots to do the deed (although keep Parks FAR AWAY from the free throw line, where the Leathernecks leading scorer is hitting on only 44% of his attempts)

Oakland may not be star studded like just a few years back, but that might be because of the team’s lack of top seed Summit status, Travis Bader, perhaps through shot volume, can score (22 ppg) and pretty much shoot anywhere that isn’t a two pointer (89% FT shooter and a 3pt% and FG% that are identical) and they hold wins over all of the top seeds in this tournament. Their odds may be long, but with those wins plus over Horizon League reg season champ Valparaiso, the mettle is there to win 3 in 3.

Best Non-Conference win: South Dakota St. Jackrabbits at New Mexico, 70-65, the infamous “Snowstorm game” – where South Dakota St was forced to take a 1220 mile bus following their game at Belmont because a snow storm.

2013 Summit League Player of the Year: Nate Wolters, South Dakota St

2013 Summit League Defensive Player of the Year: Terrell Parks, Western Illinois

2013 Summit League Newcomer of the Year: Duke Mondy, Oakland

2013 Summit League Coach of the Year: Jim Molinari, Western Illinois

2012-13 Summit League First Team:

Travis Bader, Oakland

Marshall Bjorklund, North Dakota St

Ceola Clark III, Western Illinois

Frank Gaines, IUPU-Fort Wayne

Terrell Parks, Western Illinois

Nate Wolters, So Dakota St

Taylor Braun, No Dakota St* (he actually was voted to the 2nd team, but let’s be real – no injury, we’re talking potential Summit POY tie here)

Summit League 2013 Jack Leasure Madbomber Award Candidate:

Travis Bader, Oakland, get ready for this one…  131/337, 31 games, 4.2/game, 39%

Summit League Gregory Douglas Ott Award Candidate:  Nate Wolter, So Dakota St, 2.5 A/TO

COLONIAL ATHLETIC ASSOCIATION CHAMPIONSHIP PRESENTED BY JANIKING

March 9-11, Richmond Coliseum, Richmond, VA

The Colonial Athletic Association. Or as we like to call it, “The if Virginia fails to earn an at-large bid, the reason why” Conference. Or the “Where is everyone? Where did everybody go” tournament (Arby’s, Roast Beef sale… sadly this is nowhere to be found in land of the interwebs)

Let’s take item two first – yes, you will only find 7 teams in this year’s tournament.  Towson (who finished 2nd) and UNC-Wilmington won’t be competing because their athletes go to class like UConn.  CAA pulled America East petulance on Georgia State and Old Dominion because of the impending conference departures (Ga State to the Sun Belt and ODU to Conference USA) – never mind that they had no problem letting VCU compete in the tournament last year and DEFINITELY no problem letting Georgia State compete in 2006, after their first season in the conference.

And, yes, this season saw Virginia fall to Old Dominion, George Mason, and Delaware .

Ok, enough about teams not in the CAA tournament  – let’s focus on those who are. Northeastern won the regular season title by running out to an 8-0 conference start and then holding on for dear life as a Feb 13 home loss to Delaware brought the teams within 1 game of each other, and wasn’t until Delaware lost to James Madison at home and NE righted the ship for a quick 2 game win streak that regular season CAA things were settled.  NE also owns a non-conference win over Belmont and a some real good shows against UMass, Charlotte and La Salle (all fringe Waiting Line… teams) so there’s something to the Huskies.  They put up the most points in an often scoring starved league, and at 70 per it means they can find the points when others sometimes cannot.  Joel Smith emerged as a top CAA talent, and with Jonathan Lee back from injury and Quincy Ford steadying the unit, this is a team capable of shaking off losing 3 of 5 to finish the season, and be the team that rattled off back to back wins to clinch the crown.

Delaware.  This is arguably the league’s most talented team top to bottom, with Devon Saddler, Jarvis Threatt, Jamele Hagins and even Kyle Anderson all capable CAA performers, Saddler especially is electric, averaging 20 per game,  Delaware showed at-large capable moxie with a win at Virginia early on, and their strong performances vs. Kansas St (3 point loss), La Salle (tight game until a 7 point finish) and Temple (5 point loss) in a pair of road games versus those Atlantic 10 squads.  They come in winning 4 straight and 7 of 8, including wins over conference #2 Towson (in Towson) and at Northeastern.

Who Should Win: We like a Saddler-fueled march for this abbreviated version of the CAA tournament.

If not them, who? With so many teams not included in the tournament, dropping down to the #3 seed would be too easy, so we’ll look at preseason favorite Drexel, who had such a disappointing season but maintains the talent if they could just put together a 40-minute effort.  Drexel is that classic mid-major, a loss to whom looks terrible on the resume from a rata data/advanced statistic point of view, but if you step back and realize who the Dragons should have been, you realize the loss wasn’t AS bad as it looks.  The kind of team who a sleeper run to a tournament championship title would surprise no one here at the Buffet (a first round loss to James Madison would be equally unsurprising).    But, for a refresher, keep  a lookout for Damion Lee, Chris Fouch, and Frantz Massenat.

Best Non-Conference win: Northeastern versus Belmont 74-71

2013 CAA Player of the Year: Jerrelle Benimon, Towson

2013 CAA Defensive Player of the Year: Jamelle Hagins, Delaware

2013 CAA Freshman of the Year: R.J. Hunter, Georgia State

2013 CAA Coach of the Year: Pat Skerry, Towson

2012-13 CAA First Team:

Jerrelle Benimon, Towson

R.J. Hunter, Georgia State

Keith Rendleman, UNCW

Devon Saddler, Delaware

Joel Smith, Northeastern

CAA 2013 Jack Leasure Madbomber Award Candidate:

Marcus Thornton, William & Mary, 90/208, 29 games, 3.1/gm, 43 

CAA Gregory Douglas Ott Award Candidate:  Bryon Allen, George Mason, 2.4 A/TO

THE PETE TEDESCO V. BRIAN TUCCI INVITATIONAL– WELCOME TO THE IVY LEAGUE

March 9: Princeton @ Brown; Harvard v. Cornell; March 12: Princeton @ Penn

If teams are tied: March 16 @ the Palestra, Philadelphia, PA

So here we go, the scenario we as college hoops fans dream of – 1 more championship game combined with forcing the Ivy League into the tournament like atmosphere they so desperately try to avoid, OH THE MISSED CLASSES. You know, if they weren’t so militant about things, maybe this – http://yilb.com/harvards-kyle-casey-and-brandyn-curry-in-a-cheating-scandal – doesn’t happen.  On that, in the landscape of coaching, no one takes it on the chin more than Tommy Amaker, a lot of it is due, but in a small school environment, he has thrived. And, like it or not, this year might be some of his best work yet.  He lost his captains and best player preseason in an embarrassing academic fraud scandal.  Yet, pieced things together for a (to date) 18-9 season and at least a share of Ivy league title, they went to Berkley and beat Cal, went to Moraga and lost to St. Mary’s by a point, and until a disaster of a weekend through the P-schools, had won 14 of 17.  We will stop short of commending him, but we will take a moratorium on picking fun for the rest of the 2012-13 season. Filling in the gaps for the absence of team leader Kyle Casey and the points both he and Curry provided has been Wesley Saunders (So), Syani Chambers (Fr) and the ever steady floor general, Laurent Rivard (Jr).  Which also means, if you notice the class designations, should those three avoid cheating on their exams too, like or not Amaker’s Crimson are poised to stick around.  And that could be next year, as Casey (who, to his credit, well, unless he’s guilty then not so much, has stay silent on the issue while Harvard conducts its investigation) has voluntarily withdrawn from the school to preserve his final year of eligibility, and went to work for a nonprofit foundation conducting afterschool programs for 3rd, 4th and 5th graders.  As many as 125 students were potentially involved in the cheating scandal and naturally the star basketball player became the face of the drama – and truthfully, if he participated, we have no remorse for this, he chose to play college basketball and he chose to cheat. Whatever happens, happens.  If he didn’t, or if there’s more to the story, this high road was the best path to take.

Princeton. It’s not always pretty, but with an Ivy league best defense, and a split of matchups with Harvard, the Tigers want back in the tournament.   They had destiny in their grasp, but last night’s loss to Yale was hurtful, putting the onus on them to win tonight and then survive the annual rivalry scrum at Penn on Tuesday night.  They don’t score much, but when they do expect it to come from Ian Hummer and Denton Koooooooooooon.  This team has shown road moxie – winning at Buffalo, Lafayette, Kent State, and Elon, and losing to Akron by only 4 and Wagner but just 6 – no this isn’t building a good tournament case, but it’s results against similar competition we’re interested in, and Princeton has performed.  With a 4 game win streak snapped at Yale last night, it’s time to buck up if you’re a Tiger, and get yourself to an Ivy League playoff next week.

Season results versus remaining schedule:

Harvard: won at Cornell 67-65 on February 8

Princeton:  defeated Brown at home 63-46 on February 8, knocked off Penn 65-63 on January 12.

So, a seemingly winnable game versus Brown, and then each team has a game against a team they only narrowly knocked off the first time around, it’s like Princeton has a play-in game, before a couple of semifinal games… should be fun.

Best Non-conference win between the only two teams with a shot at getting in the Buffet:

This is how amazingly close these two teams are:

Princeton over RPI #53 Bucknell 79-67

Harvard over RPI #49 California (road win)

Ivy League Postseason Awards will be announced after the end of the regular season.

Ivy League 2013 Jack Leasure Madbomber Award Candidate:

Laurent Rivard, Harvard 70/176, 27 games, 2.6/gm, 40%

Ivy League Gregory Douglas Ott Award Candidate:  Brian Barbour, Colgate 3.1 A/TO

Ok Buffet readership… the Waiting Line… and Spanning the Scene will be coming as one of the best days of college hoops unfolds, but we wanted to get your tournament previews as the slate of tournament games gets going.

Preview of Waiting Line… attractions: How Minnesota really must like waiting and not eating, Kentucky striving for a huge post-Nerlens Noel win to get back in line, Syracuse, while in the Buffet, looking more Waiting Line… than Buffet line these days, a scuttling La Salle team trying for an A10 signature, and a pair of tournament finals (one that will be complete by the time Buffet Part II gets to your doors, and looks pretty much over now) plus Blackbirds looking to sing in the dead of the NEC.

Posted in The Buffet | Comments Off on On the Fourth Day of Conference Tourneys, the Buffet gave to me…