Championship Week Notebook, and Other Highlighted Games (Tuesday, March 5th)

HAPPY MARCH MADNESS EVERYBODY!!!!

-The Big South and Horizon League Conference tournaments get underway today, which means we are officially in the win and advance stage of the season. Check in daily between now and the end of the year for Chad’s programming guide for all the conference tournament action.

 

304 TEAMS REMAIN!!!!

-There are seven conference tournament games today, and I think it is safe to say all are elimination games because no one is anywhere close to getting an at-large, so we’ll be down to 297 tomorrow.

-Opening round action in the Big South today gives us six teams with losing records, and only one team with a winning record in UNC Asheville. The Big South has always been at the bottom of the standings, but this year it’s weak even by Big South standards, and the winner will most likely be headed to Dayton. Charleston Southern and High Point were the two division winners, but Gardner Webb will likely be a force as well.

-The Horizon League opening round is today. The top two teams (Detroit and Valpo) bye into the semifinals, which will be played at Valpo. The third place team is Wright State, and they bye into the quarterfinals. We do get the two Wisconsin schools (Green Bay vs Milwaukee) facing off tonight. Green Bay had a rather strong finish to the season, and would likely be favored in the quarterfinal game as well.

 

OTHER ACTION

-OHIO STATE AT INDIANA (Big Ten). Ohio State still hasn’t beaten a tournament caliber team in a true road game, so a win in this one would be enormous for their profile. Indiana is trying to get their NCAA Tournament bus trip set up. If they want to play in Dayton for the first two rounds, and Indianapolis for the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight, they need to finish strong and lock up the #1 seed.

-VIRGINIA TECH AT DUKE (ACC). Duke has been unstoppable at home and is on pace to get a #1 seed with a strong finish. They shouldn’t have any trouble tonight.

-ARKANSAS AT MISSOURI (SEC). Missouri is inside the bubble despite being awful on the road this year. Arkansas is a home court hero, but has just one true road win and that was against South Carolina. No one has ever received an at-large bid with so few road wins, so tonight is huge for them. They need a win like this to even be considered. Former Mizzou coach and current Arkansas coach Mike Anderson returns to Missouri for the first time. I would not anticipate a warm welcome.

-SAINT JOHN’S AT NOTRE DAME (Big East). The fact that the Johnnies are in the discussion at all is a testament to how weak the bubble currently appears. They need big wins, and more than just one. Notre Dame is safely in and has just two home losses so I don’t think they’ll have too much trouble today.

-MARQUETTE AT RUTGERS (Big East). Marquette is safely in the field, and perhaps even a protected seed, but the one glaring deficiency on their resume is road wins. This would be their fourth true road win and although Rutgers is not a tournament team, it would still boost up Marquette’s profile a little.

-MIAMI, OH AT AKRON (MAC). Akron had their long winning streak snapped against Buffalo, which is their second loss on the year to a sub-200 RPI team. Rarely do teams get at-large bids with two losses as bad as that. I think they’ll be on the bubble if they win out and lose in the championship game, but anything short of winning the conference tournament and they’ll really be sweating. The committee left out Drexel last year. They’ll leave out Akron this year. Fair or not.

-SOUTHERN MISS AT MARSHALL (Conference USA). Southern Miss continues to hover around outside the bubble. If they want any chance in the world of landing on it or in it, they cannot afford to lose the rest of the way.

-ILLINOIS AT IOWA (Big Ten). Illinois has struggled at times, but overall their profile is very strong and they could add another road win to it tonight. Iowa has been home court heroes, but has struggled away from home. Teams that schedule as weak as they did out of conference and struggle on the road in conference typically get left out even if they do manage several good wins at home.

-TCU AT KANSAS STATE (Big Twelve). A huge mismatch here. K State should win easily.

-MEMPHIS AT UTEP (Conference USA). UTEP has just two home losses and managed a win over Oregon at home, so Memphis needs to be on upset alert. Memphis isn’t in any danger of missing the field, but they do lack quality wins. Considering how strong UTEP is at home this would actually be one of Memphis’s better wins of the season.

-ALABAMA AT OLE MISS (SEC). Both Teams are outside the bubble and need this win to even get a look, much less get in.

-BOISE STATE AT UNLV (Mountain West). I think Boise is currently inside the bubble, and they can pretty much lock up a bid if they’re able to pick up one more big win, especially if it’s in a game like this on the road.

Griggs

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On the Eve of the 12 Days of Conference Tourneys – it’s “Remember When” with the Buffet

So… it’s March.  And you all haven’t received so much as a morsel or scrap of food from the Buffet, let alone an entire trip through the line.  We are ashamed.  But, we also relocated headquarters, made our 7a-7p very busy on a daily basis, and so, while nothing short of a prolific Buffet is acceptable, hopefully it is understandable.  Another something we hope? That you remember the Buffet, even if you had to etch a tattoo on yourself, Memento-style, in case we ever resurfaced and you wanted to recall who we were and what we did.  Well, resurfaced we did.  So, in the spirit of memories, we at the Buffet will not only be rolling out our first published Buffetology of the 2012-13 season (we’ve been filling them out all along, so credibility would not be impacted, just simply haven’t had the bandwidth to accompany it with an article, as our readership demands, so we haven’t submitted), but also present you with a new once a year series, we like to call, “Remember When?”

Remember when UNC & Kentucky were good, and not just field of 68 good, but like National Title good?

Remember when Roy Williams was accurately considered one of college basketball’s best, instead of inaccurately considered as such, as he is now.

Remember when Frank Haith & Rick Barnes shared a coaching bench?

Remember when Miami and then Missouri hired someone from the “Rick Barnes coaching tree”?

Remember when Texas has a basketball program that made the sport relevant on campus again?

Remember when Missouri could win on the road?

Remember when announcers actually continued to watch the sport after the New Year? We ask this one, because we have reach our limit of watching Missouri basketball game, and the announcers gush over Paul Pressey, a good player and kid, who hasn’t been a good player since December. You know when, the 19 points/19 assists game that is the only talking point apparently available about him. Never mind that Missouri lost that game, partially, as has become his custom, because of Paul Pressey late game anti-heroics.  Since then? The numbers look ok: 12 pts, 7 assists, and couple of particularly big games.  But, then you look deeper: 4 turnovers per game, shooting only 36% from the field, then you parse out his road numbers: 11 pts, 6 assists, 5 turnovers, 30% from the field, 19% from 3, and you remember, even if Fran Fraschilla doesn’t, that even in his big games: UCLA, Kentucky (and A&M), it was Pressey who faltered down the stretch to make Missouri falter, yet again, on the road.  Pressey can’t play on the road, neither can Missouri, chances are they WILL be remembering Norfolk State, as a similar fate may await.

Remember when Arizona was running away with the Pac12, Oregon was underachieving, and UCLA was a chaotic mess that Ben Howland, Bill Walton leading the charge with pitchforks, was not likely to survive?

Remember when no one remembered Cal had a basketball program?

Remember when Murray State was a mid-major darling, and rode a great 2011-12 to a 6 seed, and gave 3-seeded Marquette fits before finally succumbing? Well Isaiah Canaan is still special (points and assists are up, with not major FG% and TO sacrifice), but then Zay Jackson ran over a couple of people at a Wal-Mart, and this team will not be snacking at the Buffet without winning the OVC tournament, and that conference is now inhabited by Ian Clark & Kerron Johnson & the Belmont Bruins.  Who might be this year’s Murray State (and hopefully not this year’s Iona).

Remember when BYU joined the WCC and that was supposed to be a good thing for increasing competition for Gonzaga’s annual WCC conference title?

Remember when John Stockton’s son played for Gonzaga? Wait, what’s that, he still does? Oh… (awkward)

Remember when Syracuse & Pittsburgh hastened the demise of the Big East as we know it by engineering a rejection of big TV contract offer from ESPN, then bolted for the ACC in panic, then tried to take us on a nostalgia tour of their last run through the same Big East they helped end?

Remember when Jim Boeheim acted sane after basketball games?

Remember Cody Zeller was the best player on Indiana (this is actually no knock on Zeller, who has been unfairly maligned in some places), and Victor Oladipo wasn’t a basketball revelation?

Remember when Miami had a chance to tie late, on the road at Duke, but missed a pair of 3s, but everyone only talked about Ryan Kelly, Coach K’s “one for the ages” comment, and Joe Lunardi crushed the Hurricanes for a 3 point road loss, with a chance for a tie at the buzzer, when an opposing player had the game of his life, and the winning team was ranked #1 in RPI coming in?

Remember when the Big 10 didn’t play ridiculously exciting basketball games every time out?

Remember when Baylor was supposed to be the stiffest competition for Kansas coming into 2012-13? Hello Marcus Smart!

Remember when McDonald’s All Americans actually played that way in college? Hello Brandon Ashley!  Hello Cameron Ridley! Hello Tyler Lewis! Hello DaJuan Coleman! Hello Devonta Pollard! Hello Tony Parker! (no Eva, not that Tony Parker)

Remember when Rick Pitino coached all 40 minutes, and not just the first 38 ½ before turning things over to a Peyton Siva/Russ Smith backcourt sh*tshow?

Remember when all of Kentucky’s freshman were listed on the honorable mention list for preseason all-America, presumably because last year’s Kentucky freshman were awesome?

Remember when James Southerland returning was going to be a boost for Syracuse?

Remember when Texas was going to get tournament-level better when Myck Kabongo got back?

Remember when the NCAA didn’t try an enforce their rules by participating in shady tactics and keeping things secret from 19 year olds who are overwhelmed/intimidated by the process?

Remember when conference realignment wasn’t a reality, and the college sports landscape wasn’t a complete mess?

Remember when Connecticut competed in a legitimate athletic conference? They soon won’t remember.

Remember when Butler didn’t?

Remember when everyone was excited out west for Mark Lyons to transfer to Arizona? It happened about the same time everyone remembered that the words “Mark Lyons takes a shot” and “Mark Lyons takes a bad shot” weren’t synonymous.

Remember when Durand Scott was the best player on Miami?

(This became less timely after Saturday, but…) Remember when Ryan Kelly was just a decent overall, great outside shooting, soft inside big man, and not Duke’s savior?

Remember when it used to turn to February, you looked forward to the Tournament, and couldn’t wait for the regular season to end? That was before every Big10 was decided by 1 point or less (don’t ask us how that’s possible, it just seems that way), a #1 ranked team lost every third day, and regular season conference races weren’t razor thin.

Remember when Marshall Henderson went bonzo on the crowd at Auburn, he became a media darling, and people actually talked about Ole Miss? Since then they’ve gone 4-6, and have lost to every tournament caliber team they’ve played as well as South Carolina & Mississippi State, who are barely SEC conference tournament worthy.

Remember when Jay Wright was vilified, lauded, vilified, commended and then vilified again, all during the 2012-2013 season?

Remember when no one talked about Marquette, even though they’ve got 10 wins against the top 100, are undefeated at home, have only 1 bad loss all season (only lost by 2 despite a wretched performance), and otherwise haven’t lost to team ranked lower than 55, and are only 1 game out of the top spot in the Big East, yet people only seem to remember that Louisville, Georgetown & Syracuse are in that conference.  That’s right, it’s still happening.

Remember when Connecticut was postseason banned due to APR, yet they would be a MUCH better at-large inclusion than about 45% of the soon to receive invitations.

Remember when everyone outside of New Mexico didn’t have 5 or more Mountain West conference game losses?

I was tempted to say, without further ado, but after that laundry list, could the ado really go any further? Here is the first published Buffetology of 2013. One last non-Buffetology item, just think, if we’re resurfacing now, that means it is just in time for the 12 Days of Conference Tourneys… Buckle up.

Have “Remember When”s of your own? Please comment with your favorites.  Or follow the Buffet on twitter @InTheBuffet and reach out there.  This social media thing might catch on, afterall.

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Small Conference Game of the Day – March 5

Conference tournament play begins today as First Round games are scheduled in both the Big South and Horizon League.  As every conference tournament game could be considered for the Small Conference Game of the Day, the SCGD will be limited to regular season games only.  In that regard, we turn today to the Mid-American Conference, and the 7:00 PM Eastern game from Kalamazoo, Michigan featuring the Ball State Cardinals at the Western Michigan Broncos.

The majority of the talk so far this season surrounding the MAC has been about its top two teams.  Akron sits atop the East Division and is one win away from clinching the top seed in the conference tournament.  Ohio University has only lost twice in league all year, but both losses were at the hands of the Akron Zips.  Aside from the solid seasons by these two teams, the third best conference record and leader of the West Division so far this season has been Western Michigan.  The Broncos sit at 9-5 in conference so far (18-10 overall), one game ahead of Toledo.  However, Toledo is ineligible for the MAC and NCAA tournaments due to an APR ban, meaning that WMU will clinch the top spot in the West and the #3 overall seed in the MAC tournament with a win tonight.

Western Michigan’s opponent tonight is Ball State.  The Cardinals enter tonight’s game at 13-14 overall and 6-8 in conference.  They did, however, hand WMU one of their losses on the season, winning 65-62 at home back on February 9.  Western Michigan is therefore not only looking to wrap up the 3rd seed in the conference tournament tonight and a division title, but also looking for revenge from their prior loss.  Ball State and Western Michigan will also be playing their 117th all-time meeting tonight, and amazingly enough the all-time series is tied, 58-58, dating all the way back to the 1931-32 season.

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Conference Tournament Viewing Guide – March 5, 2013

Here is the list of conference tournament games on the schedule for today, together with their available television/webstreaming options.  Please note that I only list webstreams for games without national television coverage, even if a stream may also be available. “Local TV” means that the game does not have full national coverage and you should check your local listings.  (PPV) means that there is a charge for the webstream.

(all times are eastern)

Tuesday, March 5

Big South First Round:
12:00 PM – (N4) Radford vs (S5) Winthrop, bigsouthsports.com (PPV)
2:30 PM – (S3) UNC-Asheville vs (N6) Longwood, bigsouthsports.com (PPV)
6:00 PM – (N3) Campbell vs (S6) Presbyterian, bigsouthsports.com (PPV)
8:30 PM – (S4) Coastal Carolina vs (N5) Liberty, bigsouthsports.com (PPV)

Horizon League First Round:
7:00 PM – (6) Youngstown State vs (7) Loyola (Chicago), horizonleague.org
8:00 PM – (4) Green Bay vs (9) Milwaukee, horizonleague.org
8:00 PM – (5) Illinois-Chicago vs (8) Cleveland State, horizonleague.org

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Small Conference Game of the Day – March 4

As we move towards tomorrow’s start of conference tournament play, the number of small conference regular season games grows smaller and smaller.  However, there is a very important game on tap tonight in the Big Sky Conference, which is our featured SCGD.  At 9:00 PM Eastern, Big Sky leader Montana will face its final road test of the season when they travel to take on the Southern Utah Thunderbirds.

Montana enters tonight’s game with a half game lead over Weber State in the Big Sky standings.  Weber State has only two home games left, against Portland State and Eastern Washington, two of the worst three teams in the league.  As a result, Montana most likely needs to win out its final three games in order to take the outright regular season championship and clinch home court advantage for the Big Sky tournament, as well as a first round bye.  While after tonight Montana will have two more home games left, both of which appear winnable (Sacramento State and Northern Arizona), tonight they face a potentially tough road test in Southern Utah.  The Thunderbirds sit at 8-9 in conference play and are one of 5 teams battling for the final 4 conference tournament spots.

Montana is coming off of a huge 71-68 win over in-state rival Montana State, a game in which four players scored in double figures.  That win was also significant in that it clinched Montana’s fourth consecutive 20-win season, a feat that had not been accomplished since the mid-80s when Mike Montgomery was the head coach.  Southern Utah’s last time out also came against Montana State, who defeated them 62-61.  SUU led almost the entire way against the Bobcats, relinquishing the lead for the first time with just over a minute left.  The Thunderbirds will certainly come out playing hard in what will be their final home game of the season, with both the festivities of Senior Night and the bitter taste of their loss last time out to overcome.

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Field of 68 – March 3

Here is my Field of 68, through games of March 3, broken down by conference.  Note that the winner of the conference is the team that I feel is the best team in the conference, which may at times not be the first place team.

America East (1): Stony Brook
ACC (5): Miami, North Carolina State, Duke, North Carolina, Virginia
Atlantic Sun (1): Mercer
Atlantic Ten (5): Butler, Virginia Commonwealth, La Salle, Saint Louis, Temple
Big East (8): Syracuse, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Cincinnati, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Villanova
Big Sky (1): Weber State
Big South (1): Gardner-Webb
Big Ten (7): Michigan, Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois
Big Twelve (4): Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma
Big West (1): Long Beach State
Colonial (1): Northeastern
Conference USA (1): Memphis
Horizon (1): Valparaiso
Ivy (1): Princeton
Metro Atlantic (1): Loyola
MAC (1): Akron
MEAC (1): Norfolk State
Missouri Valley (2): Creighton, Wichita State
Mountain West (5): New Mexico, UNLV, Colorado State, San Diego State, Boise State
Northeast (1): Robert Morris
Ohio Valley (1): Belmont
Pac 12 (5): Oregon, Arizona, UCLA, Colorado, California
Patriot (1): Bucknell
SEC (4): Florida, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee
Southern (1): Davidson
Southland (1): Stephen F Austin
SWAC (1): Southern
Summit (1): South Dakota State
Sun Belt (1): Middle Tennessee
West Coast (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary’s
WAC (1): Louisiana Tech

Last four in: Virginia, Kentucky, Villanova, Tennessee
First four out: Iowa State, Massachusetts, Iowa, Arkansas
Others considered: Maryland, Xavier, Baylor, Southern Miss, Arizona State, Alabama, Ole Miss, Denver

A few notes about this week’s field:

While there were very few changes in the end from last week’s bracket (in fact other than a few changes among my picks for the champions of single bid conferences, the only change was Iowa State moving out and Tennessee moving in), this was actually an incredibly difficult field to choose my last few teams in.  In the end, I begrudgingly let Kentucky and Villanova in (after Virginia, Boise State and St. Mary’s had made it in fairly easily), and was left with one spot and three teams battling for it.  Iowa State, Tennessee and UMass were those three teams and it was almost impossible for me to find a way to separate them.  Tennessee’s head-to-head win over UMass finally was the clincher for me taking the Minutemen off the list, leaving a pair of almost identical profiles in Tennessee and Iowa State.  In the end, non-conference SOS was the tie-breaker and I gave the Vols the final spot.

The only other team I will take a moment to note as having made its first appearance of the season on my prediction page is Joe Scott’s Denver Pioneers.  In the end, I don’t think Denver will have enough on its resume to merit an at-large bid, though with Louisiana Tech at home this week, they have a chance to pick up a solid win.  I think the thing I liked most about them is that they do not have any really bad losses on the season to date, though 8 losses already out of the WAC, and one more if they need an at-large, is probably too many.

Finally, here is my S-Curve of the 68 teams:

1. Indiana
2. Gonzaga
3. Duke
4. Georgetown
5. Kansas
6. Louisville
7. Miami
8. Michigan
9. New Mexico
10. Florida
11. Kansas State
12. Michigan State
13. Syracuse
14. Oklahoma State
15. Marquette
16. Saint Louis
17. Ohio State
18. Pittsburgh
19. Wisconsin
20. UCLA
21. Arizona
22. UNLV
23. Minnesota
24. VCU
25. Notre Dame
26. Illinois
27. Oklahoma
28. North Carolina
29. North Carolina State
30. Colorado State
31. Butler
32. California
33. San Diego State
34. Oregon
35. Memphis
36. Creighton
37. Wichita State
38. Cincinnati
39. Colorado
40. Missouri
41. Temple
42. Middle Tennessee
43. La Salle
44. Boise State
45. St. Mary’s
46. Akron
47. Virginia
48. Villanova
49. Kentucky
50. Belmont
51. Louisiana Tech
52. Tennessee
53. Bucknell
54. Weber State
55. Davidson
56. Stephen F Austin
57. Valparaiso
58. South Dakota State
59. Princeton
60. Northeastern
61. Loyola
62. Long Beach State
63. Stony Brook
64. Mercer
65. Robert Morris
66. Norfolk State
67. Gardner-Webb
68. Southern

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