Highlighted Games for Saturday, Feb 23rd (Bracket Buster Edition)

-GEORGETOWN AT SYRACUSE (Big East). We won’t get to enjoy this rivalry much longer, at least not as a conference game. Both teams are highly ranked and will likely end up as protected seeds. Syracuse still has a shot at a #1, but they’ll need a strong finish. The rivalry and storyline regarding conference realignment is the most intriguing element to this game, though.

-NEW MEXICO AT COLORADO STATE (Mountain West). Colorado State lost a close one at UNLV earlier in the week, which would have given their profile a huge quality road win. They’re still a very good team, especially at home. It’s possible for one or both of these teams to end up as protected seeds, but this is the kind of game they’ll need to win to get there.

-CREIGHTON AT SAINT MARY’S (Bracket Buster). Creighton is inside the bubble, but could use another notable road win. SMC is outside the bubble and needs a notable win. This is their last shot at a tournament caliber team unless they meet Gonzaga in the conference tournament, so it is extremely pivotal for them.

-IONA AT INDIANA STATE (Bracket Buster). I think Indiana State is too far outside the bubble to get back on it. Anything short of winning out and they’ll have no chance.

-CLEMSON AT MARYLAND (ACC). Maryland is on the bubble and has a small margin for error. They need to take care of business at home against a sub-tournament caliber team.

-SETON HALL AT LOUISVILLE (Big East). A #1 seed probably isn’t in the cards for Louisville, but they could still earn a high seed and be dangerous come March.

-EASTERN KENTUCKY AT VALPARAISO (Bracket Buster). Neither team is in the at-large picture, but both are strong teams within their conferences. Valpo will likely finish first in the HL, and although EKU has lost twice to Belmont, they’ll still be among the teams who have a good chance of winning the OVC Tourney.

-MIAMI, FL AT WAKE FOREST (ACC). Miami can continue to play toward a #1 seed, and a first place finish in the ACC.

-SOUTHERN MISS AT MEMPHIS (Conference USA). The two met earlier in the season and Memphis won rather easily. Some think Southern Miss is a tourney team, but if they want any consideration at all then I believe this is a must win for them. Memphis has just three losses on the year and is climbing the rankings, so although they’re not in desperation mode like Southern Miss, it’s still a big game for them.

-ALABAMA AT LSU (SEC). Many people, including myself, wrote off Alabama after their loss to Auburn, but they’ve won every game since and are just a game out of first place in the SEC.

-TEXAS TECH AT IOWA STATE (Big Twelve). Iowa State is unbeaten at home and shouldn’t have much trouble winning today. They’ll need to hold serve in games like this and probably pick up a big win before it’s all over if they want to land inside the bubble.

-VCU AT XAVIER (Atlantic Ten). VCU is in good shape and can add another road win to their profile. Xavier has struggled this year, but they’ve only lost two games at home, so it would be a win of note for VCU.

-OKLAHOMA STATE AT WEST VIRGINIA (Big Twelve). Okie State is coming off an overtime loss at home against Kansas, and cannot afford a letdown today. WVU hasn’t had a big year, but they have been stronger at home.

-IOWA AT NEBRASKA (Big Ten). Iowa has just two true road wins, and if they want to land inside the bubble they need more than that. They have to at least demonstrate they can win at Nebraska.

-MONTANA AT DAVIDSON (Bracket Buster). These are two teams that are outside the at-large picture, but for the most part have dominated their conference and will both likely get in via the automatic bid. It’s a game that will impact seeding, which could mean a more winnable game in the round of 64.

-WASHINGTON STATE AT ARIZONA (Pac Twelve). Arizona is coming off a decisive win against Washington and although it is unlikely they’ll end up anywhere near the #1 line, they still have a very strong profile and should end up as a protected seed.

-NC STATE AT NORTH CAROLINA (ACC). NC State has not played well away from home. They’re safely in the field, but if they want a good seed they’ll need to win a game like this one. UNC appears to be safe as well, but there is certainly room for improvement. It’s a rivalry game off paper, and on paper it will go down as a notable win for whoever pulls this off.

-DETROIT AT WICHITA STATE (Bracket Buster). This appears to be a mismatch. Detroit is one of the better teams in the Horizon, but even with a big win like this wouldn’t put them on the bubble. A win for Wichita wouldn’t help their profile too much either.

-TENNESSEE AT TEXAS A&M (SEC). Tennessee has been coming on a little bit lately with four straight wins, but they need more road wins. Well, they need all kinds of wins, but as of now they’re just 2-6 in true road games.

-TCU AT KANSAS (Big Twelve). TCU pulled off a hugely surprising upset in the first meeting. Kansas has since recovered and won’t get caught overlooking them this time.

-BAYLOR AT OKLAHOMA (Big Twelve). Baylor has lost five of their last seven, including a home loss to fellow bubble team Iowa State in their last game. Winning a road game against a solid tournament team would do wonders for them. A loss keeps them outside the bubble.

-AUBURN AT OLE MISS (SEC). Ole Miss has gone from being the national darlings to losing five out of seven against very substandard competition. If they win out they’ll likely be safe, but anything short of that and they’ll probably be sweating it out.

-CALIFORNIA AT OREGON STATE (Pac Twelve). Cal has won six out of seven, including wins at Oregon and at Arizona, and is beginning to make a case for themselves. If they pick up this road win they’ll be inside the bubble on Sunday.

-NEVADA AT SAN DIEGO STATE (Mountain West). San Diego State has not dominated the conference the way it once looked like they would, but this is a winnable home game for them and will improve them to 8-5.

-MARQUETTE AT VILLANOVA (Big East). Marquette is looking very good and can pick up another notable win today. They do have just three true road wins, so it would help their profile. Nova has some good wins, but is still on the bubble, so it’s big for them as well.

-LOUISIANA MONROE AT MIDDLE TENNESSEE (Sun Belt). This is a huge mismatch that is bound to hurt MTSU even if they win. I still like their chances of an at-large if they win out.

-ARKANSAS AT FLORIDA (SEC). Arkansas won the first game convincingly, but they’re not the same team on the road. Florida is coming off a road loss to Missouri and is looking to rebound, which they should be able to.

-SAN DIEGO AT GONZAGA (West Coast). A bit of a mismatch in the WCC. Gonzaga has an outside shot at a #1 seed, but they’ll need to win out to get it.

-UNLV AT WYOMING (Mountain West). Wyoming is just 4-8 in conference, but still has some good things on their resume. They need to finish strong, though. They may only have one or two strikes left. UNLV’s profile has room to grow as well, and this would be a notable road win for them if they’re able to pull it off.

-SOUTH DAKOTA STATE AT MURRAY STATE (Bracket Buster). South Dakota State has some good wins on their profile, and this would certainly be another. They also have some bad losses and aren’t likely to get an at-large if they need it, but they will be a very dangerous team if they win the automatic bid. Murray has many of the same players they did a year ago and could also potentially be dangerous if they manage to win the OVC automatic bid.

-STANFORD AT OREGON (Pac Twelve). Oregon is in good shape to make the field, but there is a lot of room to improve in regards to their seed goes.

-KANSAS STATE AT TEXAS (Big Twelve). K State continues to roll. They could use a few more road wins to help hold serve as far as their status goes.

-MISSOURI AT KENTUCKY (SEC). This game is what the bubble is all about. Kentucky needs this a lot more than Mizzou does, but both need it. Mizzou still has just one true road win and that is a huge problem. Kentucky is still outside looking in and just needs any wins they can get.

-OHIO AT BELMONT (Bracket Buster). Both teams are very strong. Belmont is on the bubble, but has no shot at getting in without the automatic bid if they don’t win today. Ohio is also outside the bubble, and perhaps has a tougher road to the automatic bid with a team like Akron in their conference. Both teams will have trouble making the NCAAs, but both teams are potentially very dangerous if they were to make it in.

-BOISE STATE AT FRESNO STATE (Mountain West). Boise is on the outside looking in and cannot afford losses to non-tournament caliber teams.

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Small Conference Game of the Day – February 23

There are days when picking the Small Conference Game of the Day is painful.  When it seems the only good small conference teams are playing games against the worst teams in their conferences, and at home to boot.  When I am staring at Western Carolina or Sam Houston State or Florida A&M and practically banging my head against the wall for even a sentence or two to write about these schools.

Then, on the other hand, you have a day like today.  BracketBuster Saturday.  With a schedule like the one available today, the problem is not finding a game to feature — it is picking among a ton of great candidates.  And with so many great “small conference” games on the slate, perhaps the best thing to do is just feature all of them:

11:00 AM – Iona at Indiana State, ESPNU — Iona may be the most talented team in the MAAC though they have not been able to reach the top of the league standings so far this season.  Indiana State seemed on the verge of an at-large bid before a disastrous week last week.

1:00 PM – Eastern Kentucky at Valparaiso, ESPNU — Eastern Kentucky has been the surprise of the OVC this season, though they were unable to knock off league leader Belmont.  Valpo has led the Horizon most of the season though has a tough Detroit team right at their heels.

1:00 PM – Canisius at Vermont, espn3 — Canisius is one of four teams fighting for the top spot in the MAAC.  Vermont is currently sitting in second place in the America East behind league leader Stony Brook.

2:00 PM – Pacific at Western Michigan, espn3 — Pacific is the second best team in the Big West, though Long beach has already all but locked up the regular season title.  Western Michigan has led the Western Division of the MAC most of the season, though most of the attention for the conference has focused on Akron and Ohio U.

3:00 PM – Montana at Davidson, ESPNU — Another battle of conference leaders, as Montana has dominated the Big Sky all season and Davidson has done the same in the Southern.

3:00 PM – Northwestern State at Niagara, espn3 — Northwestern State has one of the highest scoring offenses in the country and is tied for the Southland lead with Stephen F Austin.  Niagara is among the group fighting for the top spot in the MAAC.

4:00 PM – Detroit at Wichita State, ESPN2 — Detroit has a solid team that may in fact be the eventual Horizon League representative in the NCAA tournament.  They will give Wichita State all the can handle today in a game Wichita State really needs to solidify a suddenly shaky resume.

6:00 PM – Creighton at St. Mary’s, ESPN — This is perhaps the feature game of this year’s BracketBusters, as both teams are solidly in the at-large discussion, though St. Mary’s really needs a top 50 win such as this one.

8:00PM – South Dakota State at Murray State, ESPN2 — South Dakota St features one of the most exciting players in the country in Nate Wolters.  They lead the Summit League and go up against OVC Western Division leader Murray State.

8:00 PM – Denver at Northern Iowa, espn3 — Denver has had a solid season in their first and only year in the WAC, though Louisiana Tech remains atop the league standings.  Northern Iowa has been coming on strong lately and a win here today may help push them closer to the bubble.

10:00 PM – Ohio at Belmont, ESPN2 — If Creighton and St. Mary’s is the best game, this one is clearly the second best.  Belmont has been one of the top small conference teams in the nation all season, while Ohio U has been second only to Akron in the MAC.

In addition to the ESPN games, there is one more honorable mention:

8:30 PM – Weber State at Oral Roberts, Fox College Sports — Weber State is the second best team in the Big Sky and the only team in the conference to beat Montana this year.  Oral Roberts is only one game out of the lead in the Southland and will be a very tough out in the league tournament.

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Small Conference Game of the Day – February 22

In 2003, ESPN came up with the novel idea of having 18 teams leave a weekend in February open in their schedules and letting the network choose the 9 games that would be played between those teams that weekend — an event the network called BracketBusters.  Over the years, the event expanded to include over 100 teams per season, with the top dozen or so games picked for television coverage.  The games proved exciting, and in 2006, the George Mason-Wichita State game actually proved to be a preview of a Sweet 16 matchup between the same two teams.

Unfortunately for the event, the changing landscape of college sports began to take its toll.  Teams such as Butler and Virginia Commonwealth have moved out of conferences that participate in BracketBusters.  Other conferences that annually participated decided they would rather not be involved, most notably the CAA.  As a result, ESPN has announced that the 2013 edition of BracketBusters will be the final one.  (Technically, BracketBusters will still affect next season’s schedule as all participants are required to play a “return game” rematch against their same opponent next season at the road team’s home court).

This year’s BracketBusters event begins tonight with a pair of games.  North Dakota State travels to Akron at 7:00 PM Eastern on ESPN2, and Stephen F Austin travels to Long Beach State at 9:00 PM Eastern on ESPNU.  It is the later of these two games, between a pair of conference leaders, that we are focusing on for today’s SCGD.

Stephen F Austin enters tonight’s game 22-3 overall and tied for first in the Southland at 13-2.  Their RPI is 78 and their KenPom is 58, but a SOS well into the 300s means they will probably need to win the automatic bid to make the NCAA tournament.  They do have a great road win over Oklahoma on their resume, but that is their only top 100 win.  In fact they only have two other top 150 wins, both over Oral Roberts.  Their overall record is also bolstered by four wins over non-Division I competition.

Long Beach State enters the game at 17-9 overall and 13-2 in the Big West.  They need only one more conference win, or one conference loss by Pacific, to clinch the outright regular season Big West title.  They have an RPI of 110 and a KenPom of 131.  While they did challenge themselves in the non-conference season, playing Arizona, North Carolina, UCLA, Ohio State and Syracuse, they lost all of those games, most of them in convincing fashion.  However, the 49ers have rolled through the Big West so far this season and should enter their conference tournament as the heavy favorite to win.

 

 

 

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Small Conference Game of the Day – February 21

Tonight we head out west again to sunny California as the Saint Mary’s Gaels play host to the BYU Cougars at 11:00 PM Eastern on ESPN2.  While Gonzaga has dominated the WCC so far this season, the Gaels have a profile that is setting up to be one of the more controversial ones come Selection Sunday.  Heading into tonight’s game, St. Mary’s is 22-5 with an RPI of 52 and a SOS of 155.  If they win out until the WCC finals, they would theoretically be 27-6, a record that will draw a ton of attention.

The Gaels main problem is their lack of marquee wins.  Their three best wins at the moment are at BYU, at Santa Clara and a home win over Harvard.  Only Harvard is a probable tournament team from that group, and that is only because they are favored to win the Ivy League automatic bid.  St. Mary’s also has two questionable losses, neutral court defeats at the hands of Pacific and Georgia Tech, though both of those came way back in November.

This week is a huge one for St. Mary’s.  While BYU does not appear to be an at-large caliber team, beating them tonight would give the Gaels a season sweep of a top 100 team.  Then, on Saturday, they host RPI 47 Creighton in the BracketBusters.  A win over the BlueJays would be St. Mary’s first over a solid at-large caliber team all season, and is probably critical to their at-large chances.  After this week, the Gaels have a trip to Pepperdine and a home game against Santa Clara left on their schedule, followed by the WCC tournament where they should receive the #2 seed and a bye into the semifinals.  Any slip-up could be fatal at this point, especially given that their only chance for a true high-level victory would be a potential West Coast Conference title game against the zags…and obviously if they were to win that they would be in with the automatic bid.

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Small Conference Game of the Day – February 20

Today we return to the Colonial Athletic Association for a 7:00 PM Eastern tip-off featuring Northeastern at James Madison.  The Northeastern Huskies have rolled through conference play so far this season, posting a 12-3 conference record.  James Madison currently sits tied for second with Towson at 10-5, though Towson in ineligible for the conference tournament and postseason play due to an APR ban.  Delaware is tied with both teams in the loss column as well, with a conference mark of 9-5.

A win for the Huskies tonight will clinch at least a tie for the CAA regular season title.  They can clinch the #1 seed in the conference tournament as well with a win tonight and a Delaware loss tomorrow to Drexel.  The top seed in the CAA tournament has extra meaning this year as only 7 teams are eligible, meaning the top seed will receive a bye into the semifinals.  Northeastern is looking for its first NCAA tournament bid since 1991, and at this point it appears they are going to have the easiest path through the CAA tournament available.  If they are unable to get it done in their league tournament, though, it will only be the NIT as their resume is not close to being at-large caliber.

 

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Small Conference Game of the Day – February 19

For today’s game, we turn back to the Big South conference.  While most of the focus in this conference so far this season has been on the battle between Charleston Southern and UNC-Asheville in the South Division, the High Point Panthers have very slowly put together a solid 10-3 conference mark to lead the North Division and be on pace for a top seed in the conference tournament.

Tonight, High Point travels to VMI for at 7:00 PM Eastern tipoff.  High Point is 15-10m on the season and 10-3 in league play.  They are presently on a six game winning streak.  VMI is 11-13 on the season and 6-6 in conference, good enough for second place behind High Point in the North Division.  A win in tonight’s game by High Point will in fact clinch the North Division title for the Panthers.  This would be the Panthers first ever regular season title since joining the Big South 13 years ago.

High Point is led by Allan Chaney who posted his fifth career double-double last time out, and freshman John Brown who had 17 points in his last game.  VMI is led by D.J. Covington who put up 31 points and 15 boards in a losing effort this past weekend.  A win tonight for the Keydets who let head coach Duggar Baucom tie the school record for most career wins at 116.  It would also continue VMI’s recent success against High Point at the Keydets have won 7 of their last 8 matchups, with only the earlier meeting this season in High Point, NC going the Panthers way.

 

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