David Griggs’ Seed List/S Curve Rankings for Monday, Feb 11th

Posted on February 11, 2013 by David Griggs

The teams in ALL CAPS are the projected conference champions. They are either currently the first place team, or in a tie for first place via the loss column.

-The locations of where the teams on the top four lines will be sent are in (parenthesis).

-I didn’t bother bracketing the teams. Honestly, it is normally a timing issue, but it is also an issue of tedium. I know that it is fun to look at this in bracketed format, but I don’t think it tells you anything that simply listing the rankings doesn’t tell you. If anything, it is less precise because you have to move teams up and down seed lines to meet the bracketing rules.

-I am not necessarily trying to guess the committee, but merely evaluate teams the way I think they should be evaluated based on the criteria the committee looks at.

For more Analysis, listen to our podcast linked below…

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/crimsoncast/2013/02/11/the-real-bracket-racket-2102013

 

-NOTES ON THE SEED LIST ARE LOCATED BELOW

1. MIAMI, FL (Austin TX) (Arlington, TX)
2. INDIANA (Dayton, OH) (Indianapolis, IN)
3. Michigan (Auburn Hills, MI) (Washington DC)
4. Michigan State (Auburn Hills, MI) (Los Angeles, CA)
5. SYRACUSE (Philadelphia)
6. Duke (Philadelphia)
7. FLORIDA (Austin)
8. ARIZONA (Salt Lake City)
9. GONZAGA (San Jose)
10. KANSAS STATE (Kansas City)
11. Kansas (Kansas City)
12. Pittsburgh (Dayton)
13. Wisconsin (Salt Lake City)
14. BUTLER (Lexington)
15. Louisville (Lexington)
16. NEW MEXICO (San Jose)
17. Minnesota
18. Marquette
19. Georgetown
20. Oklahoma State
21. Notre Dame
22. Ohio State
23. Cincinnati
24. San Diego State
25. Illinois
26. Colorado State
27. Vcu
28. Oregon
29. Oklahoma
30. Saint Louis
31. NC State
32. WICHITA STATE
33. Unlv
34. Ucla
35. Creighton
36. Colorado
37. La Salle
38. Boise State
39. North Carolina
40. Indiana State
41. BELMONT
42. Temple
43. MIDDLE TENNESSEE
44. MEMPHIS
45. UMass
46. Saint John’s (First Four)
47. Iowa State (First Four)
48. Missouri
49. Kentucky (First Four)
50. Ole Miss (First Four)
51. AKRON
52. STEPHEN F AUSTIN
53. BUCKNELL
54. LOUISIANA TECH
55. DAVIDSON
56. VALPARAISO
57. MERCER
58. WESTERN ILLINOIS
59. HARVARD
60. NORTHEASTERN
61. MONTANA
62. BRYANT
63. UNC ASHEVILLE
64. STONY BROOK
65. NIAGARA (First Four)
66. LONG BEACH STATE (First Four)
67. NORFOLK STATE (First Four)
68. SOUTHERN (First Four)

 

NOTES:

NEXT IN LINE:
-Baylor, Saint Mary’s, Villanova, Wyoming, South Dakota State, Virginia, Charlotte, Stanford, Texas A&M, Maryland, Arizona State, Murray State, Air Force, Southern Miss, Lehigh, Ohio U, Florida State, BYU, Alabama

-I broke protocol by sending Louisville and Butler to Lexington even though Wisconsin was higher on the S Curve. The reason is that I think the committee tries to keep as many teams as close to home as possible, and they will sometimes break the seed list ranking if they can keep more than one team closer to home by doing it.

-My last three at-large teams are SEC teams, which would create an SEC match-up in the First Four. Therefore, Missouri was moved up and Saint John’s was moved down.

-I’m still not sure what to do with Ohio State. I have them at #22, which is a #6 seed. On paper, their best win away from home is Washington on a neutral floor, and their best true road win is probably Purdue. All the teams around them have done more than that, so I could make a case for having them much lower. Having said that, they lost on the road to Michigan State, Duke and Michigan by a combined total of 10pts, so they can definitely play on the road. It is a shame that their season opener against Marquette was cancelled. It could have given them a notable win away from home and made a world of difference. They still have several chances remaining, but until they get at least one strong road win I’m hesitant to move them up.

-Louisville has had leads late in the game in all of their losses with the exception of Villanova. In their five game epic overtime game against Notre Dame, they led at the end of regulation, and in the final minute of the first four overtimes. They’re having trouble closing out opponents and until they get that figured out it’s going to be hard for me to consider them national title contenders.

-The actual committee probably won’t like Belmont, Middle Tennessee, Akron and Stephen F Austin as much as I do. I think Belmont is the best team out of those four, but on paper they’re hurting. They have a decisive win against Middle Tennessee, a win at Stanford (who has just one other home loss), and a win at Eastern Kentucky (who has no other home losses), so there is some indication there that they are a solid team, but it doesn’t jump out at you right away. Hopefully the committee sees what I see if Belmont ends up stubbing their toes in the OVC Tournament.

-With the exception of their one loss to Northwestern State, SFA has been blowing through Southland play. Their only other loss on the season was to Texas A&M. They have a good win against Oklahoma, and a bunch of decisive wins against sub-100 teams. Again, hopefully they win the Southland Tourney and it’s not an issue.

-There are three Big Ten teams with #1 seeds. Not only is this within the rules, there is precedence for this. We saw three Big East teams earn #1 seeds in 2009.

-I’m really holding my nose with the inclusion of Saint John’s, but I think they stink less than the teams I left out.

Griggs

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Small Conference Game of the Day – February 11

Posted on February 11, 2013 by Chad

Canisius picked up a huge road win yesterday at Niagara to tighten things up at the top of the MAAC.  For tonight’s SCGD, we could have taken a return trip down to Louisiana to once again check in on the Grambling State Tigers as they host Mike Davis’ Texas Southern squad.  However, instead we are actually going to take a look at a pair of games out of the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference: Bethune-Cookman at North Carolina Central (7:30 PM Eastern) and Maryland-Eastern Shore at Norfolk State (8:00 PM Eastern).

Entering tonight’s action, we are down to only eight teams in the entire country that are undefeated in their conferences.  Miami, Montana, Memphis, Akron, Gonzaga and Louisiana Tech are six of those.  The final two are both in the MEAC — North Carolina Central and Norfolk State.  Further, due to one of the scheduling quirks that you get when you have conferences with more than 12 teams (the MEAC has 13), these two teams will not be playing each other during the regular season.  While there is still a ways to go, we could have a very rare situation in the MEAC that actually sees two teams go undefeated in their regular seasons.

As for tonight’s games, neither Bethune-Cookman nor UMES appear to be significant challenges for the MEAC leaders.  Norfolk State’s next big challenge will more likely come a week from tonight at Hampton, while NC Central has a trip to Savannah State coming this Saturday.

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Field of 68 – February 10

Posted on February 10, 2013 by Chad

Here is my Field of 68, through games of February 10, broken down by conference.  Note that the winner of the conference is the team that I feel is the best team in the conference, which may at times not be the first place team.

America East (1): Vermont
ACC (5): Miami, North Carolina State, Duke, North Carolina, Virginia
Atlantic Sun (1): Florida Gulf Coast
Atlantic Ten (5): Butler, Virginia Commonwealth, La Salle, Saint Louis, Temple
Big East (7): Syracuse, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Cincinnati, Georgetown, Notre Dame
Big Sky (1): Montana
Big South (1): UNC-Asheville
Big Ten (7): Michigan, Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois
Big Twelve (5): Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Iowa State
Big West (1): Long Beach State
Colonial (1): Northeastern
Conference USA (1): Memphis
Horizon (1): Valparaiso
Ivy (1): Harvard
Metro Atlantic (1): Loyola
MAC (1): Akron
MEAC (1): North Carolina Central
Missouri Valley (3): Creighton, Wichita State, Indiana State
Mountain West (5): New Mexico, UNLV, Colorado State, San Diego State, Boise State
Northeast (1): Robert Morris
Ohio Valley (1): Belmont
Pac 12 (4): Oregon, Arizona, UCLA, Colorado
Patriot (1): Bucknell
SEC (4): Florida, Ole Miss, Missouri, Kentucky
Southern (1): Davidson
Southland (1): Stephen F Austin
SWAC (1): Southern
Summit (1): South Dakota State
Sun Belt (1): Middle Tennessee
West Coast (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary’s
WAC (1): Louisiana Tech

Last four in: North Carolina, North Carolina St, St Mary’s, Temple
First four out: Iowa, Baylor, Villanova, Arizona State
Others considered: Maryland, UMass, Charlotte, Xavier, Air Force, Wyoming, Stanford, California, North Dakota State

A few notes about this week’s field:

This week’s field was surprisingly easier than last week.  That being said, one of the biggest moves I saw was in the ACC, where Virginia now looks like the third best team in the conference, and both UNC and NC State are moving squarely onto the bubble.  The A-10 also saw the schizophrenic Temple team slide back into the field — but I just don’t trust this team to keep winning games.

In the Big Ten, Illinois made a huge move with their two marquee wins over Indiana and Minnesota, while Iowa slid back out of the field.  The Missouri Valley saw both Creighton and Wichita State losing games, with the Shockers suddenly looking more like a bubble team than a protected seed.

The Pac 12 continues to exceed my expectations for the league.  Colorado had another road win Sunday night to squarely put them in the field.  Cal is also suddenly on my radar after a huge win at Arizona — though it remains to be seen if they can stay there.

Also out west, Air Force went 0-2 on the week to drop almost off the board entirely.  BYU did the same and in fact is completely off my board at the moment.  On the other hand, I am starting to take a closer look at North Dakota State and South Dakota State.  If one of these two wins out to the Summit championship and loses to the other there, I definitely think the committee will give the loser a serious look.

Finally, here is my S-Curve of these 68 teams:

1. Indiana
2. Duke
3. Michigan
4. Miami
5. Florida
6. Gonzaga
7. Syracuse
8. Michigan State
9. Arizona
10. Kansas State
11. Ohio State
12. Kansas
13. Louisville
14. Butler
15. Notre Dame
16. Wisconsin
17. Oklahoma State
18. New Mexico
19. Pittsburgh
20. Colorado State
21. VCU
22. Georgetown
23. Marquette
24. Creighton
25. Oklahoma
26. Oregon
27. Memphis
28. Cincinnati
29. San Diego State
30. Missouri
31. Belmont
32. Minnesota
33. Akron
34. St. Louis
35. Illinois
36. Virginia
37. Wichita State
38. UNLV
39. UCLA
40. Kentucky
41. Boise State
42. La Salle
43. Ole Miss
44. Colorado
45. Indiana State
46. Iowa State
47. North Carolina
48. N C State
49. St. Mary’s
50. South Dakota St
51. Temple
52. Middle Tennessee
53. Stephen F Austin
54. Louisiana Tech
55. Valparaiso
56. Bucknell
57. Montana
58. Harvard
59. Northeastern
60. Davidson
61. Florida Gulf Coast
62. Long Beach State
63. Loyola
64. Robert Morris
65. Vermont
66. UNC-Asheville
67. North Carolina Central
68. Southern

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Small Conference Game of the Day – February 10

Posted on February 10, 2013 by Chad

For today’s SCGD, we head back east, into the shadow of Niagara Falls, for an important battle at the top of the Metro Atlantic between Canisius and Niagara (2:00 PM Eastern).  The Golden Griffins of Canisius enter the game at 8-5 in conference, two games behind league leader Niagara’s 10-3.  However, they can trim that lead to one game and create a logjam (with both Loyola and Iona also in the mix) at the top of the standings with a win today.

In terms of RPI numbers, this game is pretty even.  Canisius enters ranked 124 while Niagara is at 128.  Their KenPom ratings are close as well, with Canisius at 125 and Niagara at 138.  Canisius’ numbers are boosted by a good road win at Temple.  Niagara, on the other hand, did not do much out of conference.  They did start MAAC play at 10-1 though before dropping their last two games.  That makes today’s contest even more important for the Purple Eagles to play well.

Due to their proximity, this is one of the top rivalries in the MAAC.  However, it has been dominated by the Purple Eagles in recent years.  Niagara has won 18 of the last 21 meetings between the two teams, including a win at Canisius earlier this season.  However, Canisius head coach Jim Baron is 13-2 all time in his career against Niagara.  Niagara is led by Antoine Mason who is averaging 18.9 points per game, good for 30th in the nation.  Canisius is led in part by Isaac Sosa who shoots over 42% from three point land.

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Highlighted Games for Saturday, Feb 9th

Posted on February 9, 2013 by David Griggs

-WYOMING AT BOISE STATE (Mountain West). This is a very pivotal game for both teams, and it earns today’s top billing. Both are on the bubble. Both have a lot to gain with a win. Both would be damaged with a loss. Both have played very well at times this year, but haven’t always come out with the wins to show for it.

-NEW MEXICO AT UNLV (Mountain West). Both teams appear to be solidly in, and both could possibly end up as a protected seed, but in order to get there they need to win games like this.

-TEMPLE AT DAYTON (Atlantic Ten). Temple’s resume is all over the map. They’re on the bubble and this game has a pivotal feel to it.

-GEORGETOWN AT RUTGERS (Big East). Georgetown appears to have a solid resume and can build on that with a road win today.

-MICHIGAN AT WISCONSIN (Big Ten). Michigan is still a #1 seed caliber team, but needs to keep winning away from home. Wiscy is a good, and it’s not easy to win there, but it’s the kind of game that a #1 seed should be able to win.

-AKRON AT MIAMI, OH (MAC). Akron’s record is good, but they’re lacking good wins away from home. Their margin for error is almost zero, and there are some that will tell you that winning out won’t even be enough.

-OLE MISS AT MISSOURI (SEC). Ole Miss has a good record, but doesn’t have any rock solid wins on the road. This would be one of their better road wins. Mizzou looks more like a bubble team than a top 25 team to me, but they are unbeaten at home.

-SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AT INDIANA STATE (Missouri Valley). Indiana State is coming off a big win against Creighton and if they can finish strong they should get in.

-OKLAHOMA STATE AT TEXAS (Big Twelve). Okie State’s profile has shot through the roof, but they still need some road wins to be a first ballot team.

-SAINT JOSEPH’S AT UMASS (Atlantic Ten). Not many people are talking about UMass, but they have a semi-respectable profile with some chances at good wins between now and the end.

-FORDHAM AT LA SALLE (Atlantic Ten). A win for La Salle will keep them inside the bubble, at least for now.

-DEPAUL AT MARQUETTE (Big East). Marquette has the looks of a protected seed and should be able to take care of business at home in this one.

-NORTH CAROLINA AT MIAMI, FL (ACC). Miami has the looks of a possible #1 seed, especially with so many teams at the top undergoing losses. They may win this one handily.

-BUTLER AT GEORGE WASHINGTON (Atlantic Ten). Butler has a very solid resume and should end up as a protected seed if they hold serve.

-SOUTH FLORIDA AT VILLANOVA (Big East). Nova remains on the bubble, and every game continues to have a pivotal feel to it. This would not be a good win, but it would be a somewhat damaging loss.

-TEXAS TECH AT BAYLOR. Baylor is a bubble team and cannot afford a damaging home loss like this one.

-AUBURN AT KENTUCKY (SEC). Kentucky still has work to do, but they have looked better these past few weeks and shouldn’t have too much trouble in this one at home.

-BUCKNELL AT ARMY (Patriot League). Bucknell will be on the bubble if they win out.

-KANSAS AT OKLAHOMA (Big Twelve). Kansas is coming off a very bad loss to TCU. No #1 or #2 seed that I can recall has ever lost to such a low caliber opponent. That doesn’t mean Kansas can’t still get a #1, but it’s still a huge setback. Kansas is still a high quality opponent and it would still be a big win for Oklahoma if they’re able to pull it off.

-MEMPHIS AT SOUTHERN MISS (Conference USA). Neither team has any real solid wins on their resume, but Memphis appears to be in slightly better shape because they at least have a few quality wins. Both teams really need this one. I’d go so far to say that without it, Southern Miss has no chance.

-NORTHWESTERN AT IOWA (Big Ten). Iowa needs to hold serve in games like this, and pick up some big wins in their other conference games.

-SOUTH DAKOTA STATE AT OAKLAND (Summit League). I still like this South Dakota State team, and despite some of their bad losses I still think they will get a serious look for a bid if they win out.

-TEXAS A&M AT GEORGIA (SEC). Texas A&M is outside the bubble and will get knocked very far away from it if they don’t win this one.

-MISSISSIPPI STATE AT FLORIDA (SEC). Florida shouldn’t have much trouble at all in this one.

-SAINT LOUIS AT RICHMOND (Atlantic Ten). SLU has been playing as well as anyone in the conference, and if they can continue to play at that level as a road team, they will run away with first place.

-PITTSBURGH AT CINCINNATI (Big East). Both teams are in the rankings with solid resumes, and this would be another solid win for whoever pulls it off.

-FRESNO STATE AT SAN DIEGO STATE (Mountain West). San Diego State needs to hold serve.

-TROY AT MIDDLE TENNESSEE (Sun Belt). Same story with Middle. If they win out, they’ll be on the bubble.

-IOWA STATE AT KANSAS STATE (Big Twelve). Iowa State has won three of their last four against quality competition and appears to be safely inside the bubble. A win today against a Kansas State team that looks to be along the lines of a protected seed would boost their resume even more.

-MICHIGAN STATE AT PURDUE (Big Ten). In a time with a lot of inconsistency, Michigan State appears to be among the teams that can beat anyone in the country. They’re winners of eight of their last nine, and have gotten better as the season has progressed.

-VCU AT CHARLOTTE (Atlantic Ten). VCU has a solid profile, but they need road wins if they want it to improve. Charlotte is right on the bubble and needs some wins of note. This is a game where both teams have a lot to gain by winning it.

-ORAL ROBERTS AT STEPHEN F AUSTIN (Southland). SFA is probably out of the running for an at-large, but considering how bloated their record is they may get a look of they win out.

-STANFORD AT ARIZONA STATE (Pac Twelve). Arizona State needs a strong finish to even be considered.

-NORTH DAKOTA STATE AT IPFW (Summit League). NDSU is probably too far away from the bubble and has too few opportunities to reach it, but if they win out and things shake up right it isn’t entirely out of the realm of possibility.

-MISSOURI STATE AT WICHITA STATE (Missouri Valley). Wichita is in a bit of a tailspin and needs to pull out of it. They’re at home against a non-tournament caliber team and they really can’t afford a loss in this one.

-UTAH AT OREGON (Pac Twelve). Oregon has suffered injuries, but should be able to get it turned around. They really don’t want to drop this one at home.

-LMU AT GONZAGA (West Coast). In a year where there are about ten teams that can beat anyone in the country, I believe Gonzaga to be among those ten.

-TEXAS STATE AT LOUISIANA TECH (WAC). LA Tech has cracked the RPI top fifty, and can end up on the bubble if they win out. Anything short of that and they’ll need the automatic bid, though.

-BELMONT AT AUSTIN PEAY (Ohio Valley). Belmont is coming off a disappointing and somewhat damaging loss to Murray State. Their team is good, their profile is okay, but it still had a very small margin for error. Any loss between now and the end will all but assure they need the automatic bid.

-LOUISVILLE AT NOTRE DAME (Big East). Louisville hadn’t looked good recently, but they did in their last game against Marquette. It will be interesting to see if they can pull it together on the road and win in a hostile environment against a tournament caliber team.

-SAN FRANCISCO AT BYU (West Coast). I’m not a huge fan of BYU, but their profile is still bubble-worthy if they win out. Whether or not they wind up inside of it or not is anyone’s guess.

-ILLINOIS STATE AT CREIGHTON (Missouri Valley). Illinois State has been very disappointing this year, and that disappointment was magnified when they lost their first six conference games. Since then, though, they have won five of their last six, and are capable of an upset if they play up to their ceiling.

-WASHINGTON STATE AT UCLA (Pac Twelve). UCLA appears to be solidly in the field if they hold serve in games like this.

-SAINT MARY’S AT SAN DIEGO (West Coast). SMC has a spotty profile, and has looked questionable in many of their games this year, but their last game against Santa Clara was not one of them. I think they’re outside the bubble, but they do have the opportunities they need to land inside of it if they continue to play like they did earlier in the week.

Griggs

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Small Conference Game of the Day – February 9

Posted on February 9, 2013 by Chad

As the Northeast begins to dig out of the effects of Nemo, the SCGD is going to remain out west, though no longer on the Hawaiin Islands or in California.  Instead, tonight we head to Missoula, Montana for a Big Sky matchup between the University of North Dakota and the Montana Grizzlies (9:00 PM Eastern).

Montana is one of only a handful of teams that remain undefeated in conference play, sitting at 13-0 in the Big Sky and 16-4 overall.  Their RPI is 116 and their KenPom is 148, making an at-large bid unlikely, even if they win out to the Big sky championship game.  They did pick up a game against a solid Davidson team in the BracketBusters, but even a win there won’t be enough to make up for their very weak strength of schedule (307).  However, if Montana does find itself needing an at-large bid, it is noteworthy to consider the fact that their star player, Will Cherry, missed all four losses due to injury.  On top of that, center Eric Hutchinson was also out for the losses to BYU and San Francisco.

Montana enters tonight’s game looking for their 25th consecutive Big Sky conference victory, an almost amazing feat.  In fact, a win tonight will set the all time record for consecutive league wins, which Montana currently shares with the 1968 through 1970 Weber State teams that won 24 in a row.  Montana also has a 13 game winning streak at the moment, second in the nation to Akron’s 14.

As for the University of North Dakota, they enter the game at 7-6 in conference and 10-12 overall.  It has been a rough season so far for UND, but they seem positioned at least to finish in the top 7 in the conference, which will get them a bid into the Big Sky tournament (the bottom 4 teams in the league standings will not qualify).  Of note about North Dakota is the fact that they are the only team in Division I without a nickname.  The school had a protracted battle with the NCAA in an attempt to keep their Fighting Sioux name.  This included the North Dakota state legislature stepping in and passing a law requiring the university to keep the moniker.  However, it was then put to a statewide vote which overwhelmingly supported changing the name.  As part of the final deal, the school is not allowed to choose a new nickname until 2015.  Therefore, for the time being at least, they are simply known as the “University of North Dakota”.

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