Field of 68 – February 3

Here is my Field of 68, through games of February 3, broken down by conference.  Note that the winner of the conference is the team that I feel is the best team in the conference, which may at times not be the first place team.

America East (1): Stony Brook
ACC (4): Miami, North Carolina State, Duke, North Carolina
Atlantic Sun (1): Florida Gulf Coast
Atlantic Ten (4): Butler, Virginia Commonwealth, La Salle, Saint Louis
Big East (7): Syracuse, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Cincinnati, Georgetown, Notre Dame
Big Sky (1): Montana
Big South (1): Charleston Southern
Big Ten (7): Michigan, Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa
Big Twelve (5): Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Iowa State
Big West (1): Long Beach State
Colonial (1): Northeastern
Conference USA (2): Memphis, Southern Miss
Horizon (1): Valparaiso
Ivy (1): Harvard
Metro Atlantic (1): Niagara
MAC (1): Akron
MEAC (1): North Carolina Central
Missouri Valley (3): Creighton, Wichita State, Indiana State
Mountain West (6): New Mexico, UNLV, Colorado State, San Diego State, Air Force, Boise State
Northeast (1): Robert Morris
Ohio Valley (1): Belmont
Pac 12 (4): Oregon, Arizona, UCLA, Colorado
Patriot (1): Bucknell
SEC (3): Florida, Ole Miss, Missouri
Southern (1): Davidson
Southland (1): Stephen F Austin
SWAC (1): Southern
Summit (1): North Dakota State
Sun Belt (1): Middle Tennessee
West Coast (3): Gonzaga, BYU, St. Mary’s
WAC (1): Louisiana Tech

Last four in: Indiana State, Air Force, Boise State, BYU
First four out: Illinois, Baylor, Arizona State, Kentucky
Others considered: Virginia, Florida State, Maryland, Charlotte, UMass, St Joe’s, Richmond, Temple, St. John’s, Villanova, Northwestern, Wyoming, Washington, Stanford

A few notes about this week’s field:

The bubble just keeps getting bigger and bigger.  In the ACC, bubble teams Virginia, Florida State and Maryland continue to stumble, as did Villanova in the Big East.  The A-10 was also a complete mess this week with 9 times under consideration but only four making it into the field.

The Pac Twelve continues to look better and better this year as four teams made it into the field fairly easily and Arizona State almost made it five.  Washington and Stanford have both moved onto my radar as well and could play their way in.

In the SEC, Kentucky’s profile is starting to look better and I finally have them not only on my radar, but in fact as one of my first four teams out of the field.  However, Calipari’s team must continue winning if they want to make up for the lack of big wins as well as the overall weakness of the SEC.

Finally, the Mountain West had 7 of its 9 members on the board, with 6 of them finding a way in.  The big mover this week was Air Force, a team that just finds a way to keep winning games.  It wouldnt shock me to see the Falcons fall apart quickly, but if I had to pick a field right now, I would put them in.

Finally, here is my S-Curve of these 68 teams:

1. Indiana
2. Florida
3. Michigan
4. Duke
5. Kansas
6. Arizona
7. Ohio State
8. Gonzaga
9. Syracuse
10. Miami
11. Louisville
12. Michigan State
13. Kansas State
14. Butler
15. New Mexico
16. Oregon
17. Pittsburgh
18. Creighton
19. Colorado State
20. Wichita State
21. Cincinnati
22. Marquette
23. VCU
24. North Carolina State
25. Wisconsin
26. Belmont
27. Oklahoma State
28. Georgetown
29. Minnesota
30. San Diego State
31. Missouri
32. Notre Dame
33. Oklahoma
34. UNLV
35. Colorado
36. Ole Miss
37. Akron
38. North Carolina
39. Memphis
40. UCLA
41. Middle Tennessee
42. Saint Louis
43. Iowa
44. Southern Miss
45. Saint Mary’s
46. Louisiana Tech
47. Iowa State
48. La Salle
49. BYU
50. Boise State
51. Indiana State
52. Air Force
53. Stephen F. Austin
54. Valparaiso
55. Bucknell
56. Davidson
57. North Dakota State
58. Montana
59. Long Beach State
60. Northeastern
61. Harvard
62. Niagara
63. Stony Brook
64. Florida Gulf Coast
65. Charleston Southern
66. Robert Morris
67. North Carolina Central
68. Southern

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Small Conference Game of the Day – February 3

Following Akron’s win over Ohio yesterday, we have finally reached Super Sunday.  After today, football will begin to take a back seat in American sports and the next major event (other than pitchers and catchers reporting for Spring Training) will be March Madness.

For today’s game, there are only a few limited choices.  However, we are going to go with one of the strangest scheduled games that I can recall.  If there is one thing every major sports program knows, it is that you do not schedule any event to take place at the same time as the Super Bowl.  Yet, with a 6:30 PM Eastern kickoff for the big game, for some reason Northwestern State and McNeese State chose to tipoff a game today at 5:30 PM Eastern (regional coverage on Comcast Sports).

Northwestern State travels to McNeese today coming off of a blowout of Lamar and a prior SCGD victory over Southland co-leader Stephen F. Austin.  They are one of the most dangerous offensive teams in the county, led by DeQuan Hicks, Shamir Davis, Jalan West and James Hulbin.  The Demons can pull to within one game of first place with a win here.  McNeese State, on the other hand, is only 2-7 in conference play so far this year and, but for Texas A&M-Corpus Christi being ineligible and Lamar just being flat out awful, would be in danger is failing to qualify into the Southland tournament (top 8 teams only participate).  Their KenPom rating is well over 300, though they do have a notable win on the year of WAC leader Louisiana Tech.

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Highlighted Games for Saturday, February 2nd

MICHIGAN AT INDIANA (Big Ten). Great showcase game today between two top three teams, and two potential #1 seeds. It’s a test to see what Michigan will do in what will be one of their toughest tests of the year. If they win, it goes a long way in making them the top #1 seed. A loss for either team won’t necessarily mean they won’t get a #1 seed, though. The last time IU played the #1 ranked team at home, it was a good game.

-MIAMI, FL AT NC STATE (ACC). NC State is unbeaten at home and has taken down some heavyweights, but Miami has been better on the road than perhaps anyone they’ve been able to beat. Both teams are playing for protected seeds. Miami could even end up as high as the #2 line, especially if they get a road win like this. You don’t often think of Miami basketball when you think of showcase games, but that’s what we have today.

-OLE MISS AT FLORIDA (SEC). Ole Miss lost earlier in the week to Kentucky, and they’ve got another tough assignment today against a team that is playing as well as anyone in the country. A win would catapult their resume, but a loss certainly won’t hurt them.

-CINCINNATI AT SETON HALL (Big East). Seton Hall has been strong at home, so it won’t be a complete cakewalk for the Bearcats.

-VIRGINIA TECH AT NORTH CAROLINA (ACC). Virginia Tech has not just fallen off the bubble; they’ve fallen off the planet. North Carolina is still on the bubble and can’t afford to lose at home.

-SYRACUSE AT PITTSBURGH (Big East). Syracuse is looking for a #1 seed, and Pitt is looking to boost their profile.

-AUBURN AT MISSOURI (SEC). A win against Auburn at home will do nothing to help Mizzou, but a loss would crush them.

-NOTRE DAME AT DEPAUL (Big East). The Irish have a good profile, but this will be just their fourth true road game. Since half the fans will probably be for them, can you really even call this a “true” road game??

-DUKE AT FLORIDA STATE (ACC). Profile wise, these two teams are worlds apart. Duke could still get a #1 and FSU is so far outside the bubble that they can’t even see it from where they’re at. Duke has just one true road win, and Florida State is on an upswing, so it could be a good game. Having said that, if Duke wants a #1 seed, they need wins on the road.

-TULSA AT MEMPHIS (Conference USA). Memphis has an impressive record with no impressive wins, and they can build on that today.

-DAYTON AT SAINT LOUIS (Atlantic Ten). These two teams are going in different directions. Dayton appears to be out of the picture, and SLU seems to be playing their way inside the bubble, especially with their decisive win over Butler the other night.

-UMASS AT CHARLOTTE (Atlantic Ten). These are two teams with big records that lack quality wins, so it’s a pivotal game for both.

-WAKE FOREST AT MARYLAND (ACC). Maryland has a lot of work to do if they want to make the field. Their weak OOC schedule is doing them no favors and it has put a lot of pressure on them to perform in conference.

-LA SALLE AT GEORGE WASHINGTON (Atlantic Ten). La Salle’s profile still appears to be solid, but they are coming off a loss and could use a road win. If they’re a solid NCAA Team, then they need to be able to win road games like this one.

-COLORADO AT UTAH (PacTwelve). Colorado needs road wins. They’re just 2-5 in true road games. As bad as Utah is, this game is rather pivotal. Winning helps their road record and losing kills their profile.

-SAN DIEGO STATE AT AIR FORCE (Mountain West). SDSU is solid and will likely end up as a protected seed, but they need to be on upset alert today. Air Force has lost just once at home.

-BRADLEY AT CREIGHTON (Missouri Valley). Creighton doesn’t have a real high quality win, and they won’t get one today, but if they can hold serve it’s possible they’ll end up as a protected seed.

-WICHITA STATE AT NORTHERN IOWA (Missouri Valley). If the Shockers want a protected seed they need to be able to win games like this.

-RHODE ISLAND AT BUTLER (Atlantic Ten). If you need to bounce back after a loss, there is no better team to be playing than Rhode Island.

-SAINT JOHN’S AT GEORGETOWN (Big East). Georgetown is in better shape, but both teams have work to do. Fortunately, both have also been playing well lately. This game is a good opportunity for both teams.

-OKLAHOMA STATE AT KANSAS (Big Twelve). Kansas looks like a #1 seed, and perhaps the best team in the country. Okie State looks good, but not on Kansas’s level. A loss will do absolutely nothing to hurt them, though.

-ALABAMA AT VANDERBILT (SEC). In order for Alabama to have any chance at all they need to go on a rampage between now and the end.

-OREGON AT CALIFORNIA (Pac Twelve). Oregon lost to Stanford earlier in the week, and looked really bad for most of the game. They won’t earn a good seed with too many more showings like that.

-OHIO AT AKRON (MAC). These are the two best teams in the conference, and both are potentially dangerous NCAA Tournament teams in the round of 64. If one of these teams wins out they could be in range of an at-large.

-KANSAS STATE AT OKLAHOMA (Big Twelve). Oklahoma is looking more and more like a tournament team. They can really help their cause with a win over Kansas State today.

-TEMPLE AT SAINT JOSEPH’S (Atlantic Ten, Big Five). Temple’s profile is all over the place. They could use a win on the road to help settle their resume. That, and beating rival is always nice. Saint Joe’s can be good, and may be up for this game, but they’ve been disappointing on the year so far.

-KENTUCKY AT TEXAS A&M (SEC). Kentucky scored a big win earlier in the week at Ole Miss. If they can add another road win to that, it will likely land them inside the bubble this week.

-FORDHAM AT VCU (Atlantic Ten). VCU has struggled in their last several games, but they should be able to beat Fordham while sleepwalking.

-OHIO STATE AT NEBRASKA (Big Ten). Ohio State could stand to improve their road record. They should have no trouble doing that tonight.

-NAVY AT BUCKNELL (Patriot League). A win gets Bucknell to 19-4. If they win out they may get a look.

-MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE AT FLORIDA ATLANTIC (Sun Belt). MTSU may reach the bubble if they win out. Anything short of that and they’ll need the automatic bid.

-WYOMING AT COLORADO STATE (Mountain West, Front Range). Wyoming has been in a tailspin, and if it continues they could end up outside the bubble. Colorado State has been in the opposite of a tailspin. They’ve looked as good as anyone in the league, especially at home.

-PORTLAND AT SAINT MARY’S (West Coast). Same story as always with SMC. Good record. No quality wins. Their margin for error is small.

-INDIANA STATE AT DRAKE (Missouri Valley). Indiana State is coming off a huge win from earlier in the week, and if they can get this one today they’ll likely be inside the bubble tomorrow.

-NEVADA AT NEW MEXICO (Mountain West). This is one of the more winnable games New Mexico has remaining.

-TENNESSEE TECH AT BELMONT (Ohio Valley). If Belmont wins out, they should get a look from the committee.

-TEXAS ARLINGTON AT LOUISIANA TECH (WAC). Same with Belmont, if LA Tech wins out they should get a look.

-BAYLOR AT IOWA STATE (Big Twelve). This is about as bubble-licious as a game can get. Both teams need this win.

-UAB AT SOUTHERN MISS (Conference USA). Southern Miss seems to have caught a lot of people’s eyes, but their next top 100 win will be their first, and it won’t come today.

-UNLV AT BOISE STATE (Mountain West). I like Boise’s team, but they are in a tailspin and will crash if they don’t get things turned around. They really need to win this one.

-ARIZONA STATE AT WASHINGTON (Pac Twelve). Arizona State needs road wins. Their weak out of conference schedule has put a ton of pressure on them to perform in conference.

-BYU AT SANTA CLARA (West Coast). Both teams are outside the bubble, but it should still be a good game between two teams that need a very strong finish to play their way into the picture.

-ARIZONA AT WASHINGTON STATE (Pac Twelve). Arizona held on to beat Washington earlier in the week and is playing like a solid protected seed.

-GONZAGA AT SAN DIEGO (West Coast). Gonzaga has been cruising through conference play and that isn’t likely to change tonight.

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Small Conference Game of the Day – February 2

Today’s game is Ohio at Akron, 5:00 PM Eastern, ESPNU.  The write-up on the game got lost in cyberspace somewhere and yours truly does not have the patience to redo it….but it was a true masterpiece.  Enjoy the game!

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Small Conference Game of the Day – February 1

Today we turn the calendars to February, the month where teams either prove their tournament worth or start getting ready for the NIT.  January went out with another great SCGD last night as Niagara knocked off Iona in overtime to take control (for now) of the MAAC.  Tonight we turn our focus over to the Horizon League, where the upstart Penguins of Youngstown State travel on the road to Dickie V Court in Detroit to battle preseason co-favorite Detroit (9:00 PM Eastern, ESPNU).

Valparaiso continues to lead the Horizon at 6-2.  However, Detroit (6-3) and Youngstown (5-3) are both only one game behind in the loss column.  Youngstown State blew Valpo away their last game out, scoring an easy 80-68 win over the conference leader.  The Penguins have now won 4 straight games, though they need to now proved themselves on the road, and no better place to begin to do so than in Detroit.

As for Detroit, they enter the game with a KenPom rating of 63, the best in the Horizon League.  Their RPI of 72 is also tops in the league.  Their best win on the season came back on December 15 when they knocked off MAC co-leader Akron.  However, a few bad losses, including Bowling Green and Cleveland State, will make it next to impossible for this team to contend for an at-large berth, even if they win out to the conference tournament championship game.

Speaking of the Horizon League tournament, the conference uses a double-bye system, advancing the top two teams directly to the semifinals.  The third seed gets a single bye into the quarterfinals and seeds 4-9 must win 4 games to take the bid.  The highest remaining seed also gets to host the championship game.  For these reasons, more than in other leagues, the regular season has a lot of extra meaning.  That makes tonight’s game even more important as the winner has the inside track on one of those top two spots as we head into the second half of the conference season.

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Small Conference Game of the Day – January 31

The final score from last night’s SCGD between Auburn and Georgia was 57-49.  As noone cares who won, I won’t even bother saying.

For tonight’s game, we turn our focus back to the true small conferences and head over to the MAAC (7:00PM Eastern, espn3).  First place is on the line as Iona (14-7, 8-2) heads to Niagara (13-8, 9-1).  This is the second meeting of the season between the two teams.  Iona won the first, all the way back on November 28, to hand the Purple Eagles their only conference loss of the season.  Despite Niagara’s great conference record, they did not play well in the non-conference season, including bad losses to Buffalo, Brown and Central Michigan.

Iona has also suffered some ugly losses on the season so far.  The Gaels have losses to Quinnipiac, Illinois-Chicago and St. Peter’s already.  However, they also picked up a handful of decent wins, including games against Denver, St. Bonaventure, Wake Forest and Georgia (ok, those last couple are not exactly great teams, but hey, Georgia did play in the SCGD last night).

Needless to say, the MAAC is not in a position this season to put an at-large team into the NCAA tournament.  However, between Niagara, Iona, and some solid teams in Loyola, Canisius and Fairfield, this should be a fun conference to watch the rest of the way and could be one of the more exicting conference tournaments come March.

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