Here is my Field of 68, through games of February 17, broken down by conference. Note that the winner of the conference is the team that I feel is the best team in the conference, which may at times not be the first place team.
America East (1): Stony Brook
ACC (6): Miami, North Carolina State, Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland
Atlantic Sun (1): Mercer
Atlantic Ten (4): Butler, Virginia Commonwealth, La Salle, Saint Louis
Big East (8): Syracuse, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Cincinnati, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Villanova
Big Sky (1): Montana
Big South (1): Charleston Southern
Big Ten (8): Michigan, Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois, Iowa
Big Twelve (5): Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Iowa State
Big West (1): Long Beach State
Colonial (1): Northeastern
Conference USA (1): Memphis
Horizon (1): Detroit
Ivy (1): Harvard
Metro Atlantic (1): Loyola
MAC (1): Akron
MEAC (1): Norfolk State
Missouri Valley (2): Creighton, Wichita State
Mountain West (4): New Mexico, UNLV, Colorado State, San Diego State
Northeast (1): Robert Morris
Ohio Valley (1): Belmont
Pac 12 (5): Oregon, Arizona, UCLA, Colorado, California
Patriot (1): Bucknell
SEC (3): Florida, Ole Miss, Missouri
Southern (1): Davidson
Southland (1): Northwestern State
SWAC (1): Southern
Summit (1): South Dakota State
Sun Belt (1): Middle Tennessee
West Coast (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary’s
WAC (1): Louisiana Tech
Last four in: Maryland, Iowa State, Ole Miss, St Mary’s
First four out: Boise State, Arizona State, Arkansas, Northern Iowa
Others considered: Baylor, Southern Miss, Ohio U, Indiana State, Wyoming, Alabama, Kentucky, Tennessee, Texas A&M
A few notes about this week’s field:
This week saw more than the usual number of changes for my predictions for one bid conferences. As the season gets later and team’s schedules begin to balance out more, this is not too much of a shock. Some of the changes this week include Stony Brook moving back on top in the America East, Mercer (who will host the A-Sun tourney) moving on top of its league, Detroit overtaking Valpo in the Horizon, and Northwestern State (a very fun team to watch play) now being my pick in the Southland despite Stephen F Austin’s gaudy record — a record built on an excessive number of games against weak competition and non-Division I foes. Finally, while I think Norfolk State is the third best team in the MEAC (behind Savannah State and NC Central), I had to give them the nod as one of a very small group of teams left undefeated in their leagues.
As for the major conferences, the Big East and Big Ten both expanded out to 8 teams this week as Villanova and Iowa both snuck into the field. I also slipped Maryland in from the ACC, but I am not a fan of their profile, even with the win over Duke. If they don’t keep winning, I do not expect them to stay.
The SEC only had one team that made it inn on my initial attempt to fill the field, and I am not very happy about having to put Ole Miss in. On the other hand, both Arkansas and even Tennessee have caught my attention. The Razorbacks are slowly making a late season run — if it continues they may find a way into the field.
In the Missouri Valley, Indiana State had a disastrous week that almost knocked them off the board entirely (they barely clung on to make the Others Considered list). However, Northern Iowa, much like Arkansas, is starting to get my attention for a possible bid. As with everyone else on the bubble, what these teams do down the stretch will clear things up.
Finally, here is my S-Curve of the 68 teams:
1. Indiana
2. Miami
3. Florida
4. Gonzaga
5. Duke
6. Michigan State
7. Michigan
8. Syracuse
9. Louisville
10. Kansas
11. Arizona
12. Georgetown
13. Kansas State
14. Wisconsin
15. New Mexico
16. Oklahoma State
17. Marquette
18. Pittsburgh
19. VCU
20. Colorado State
21. Oregon
22. Saint Louis
23. Ohio State
24. Butler
25. Memphis
26. Notre Dame
27. Minnesota
28. Illinois
29. UCLA
30. San Diego State
31. Wichita State
32. La Salle
33. Virginia
34. North Carolina State
35. UNLV
36. Cincinnati
37. Belmont
38. Colorado
39. North Carolina
40. Missouri
41. Oklahoma
42. Akron
43. Creighton
44. Villanova
45. California
46. Iowa
47. Iowa State
48. St. Mary’s
49. South Dakota State
50. Middle Tennessee
51. Maryland
52. Ole Miss
53. Louisiana Tech
54. Montana
55. Detroit
56. Harvard
57. Bucknell
58. Davidson
59. Northeastern
60. Long Beach State
61. Loyola
62. Northwestern State
63. Stony Brook
64. Mercer
65. Charleston Southern
66. Robert Morris
67. Southern
68. Norfolk State