If things played out the way they are supposed to in conference tournaments, this is where we would be discussing how last season was a battle between UC-Irvine and UC-Santa Barbara all year long until they met in the Big West championship game for the right to play in the NCAA tournament. But of course, it would not be called March Madness if things went the way they were supposed to on paper, and we probably wouldn’t love watching this sport as much as we do either. Instead of UCI and UCSB battling for the bid, Cal Poly, 10-19 on the season heading into the conference tournament, knocked off both teams on its way to the NCAA tournament, then added a First Four win over Texas Southern before finally falling to Wichita State.
The regular season is starting, and we can expect much the same as last year in the Big West this season. UC-Irvine, who did capture last year’s regular season title and played in the NIT, and UC-Santa Barbara, who chose not to play in any postseason tournament last season, should be battling it out again this year. Cal Poly is expected to be right back down near the bottom of the conference, battling to finish in the top 8 (out of 9 teams) in order to qualify for the Big West tournament . . . and a chance to pull off another magical Cinderella run.
Predicted Order of Finish:
1. UC-Santa Barbara: Bob Williams just keeps putting solid teams out there. Alan Williams averaged a double-double last year and is the best player in the league. Three additional returning starters could not only place this team in the NCAAs, but make them a very dangerous out.
2. UC-Irvine: Luke Nelson was Freshman of the Year in the Big West last season. And you can never count out a team with 7-6, 290 pound Mamadou Ndiaye in the middle.
3. UC-Davis: Corey Hawkins led the team last season, which now sees the returns from injury of Josh Ritchart and J.T. Adenrele. The depth and experience here could make them a surprise contender.
4. Cal State-Northridge: Stephen Hicks, Stephen Maxwell and Seton Hall transfer Kevin Johnson give the Matadors one of the conference’s top frontcourts, but they have holes in the backcourt to fill.
5. Long Beach State: Almost the opposite problem of Northridge, as Michael Caffey, Tyler Lamb and A.J. Spencer lead a deep backcourt, but the loss of Dan Jennings has left big holes down low.
6. Cal State-Fullerton: Team needs its newcomers and transfers to step up and help senior guard Alex Harris if they want any chance to improve from last season’s 20 losses.
7. Cal Poly: Despite the postseason run, this was still a 20 loss team last season . . . and three of the starters from that team are gone now.
8. UC-Riverside: Taylor Johns is a double-double threat down low, and the Highlanders return four starters, but it will still be a challenge to just qualify for the Big West tournament.
9. Hawai’i: The loss of three starters will be difficult to make up for, though returnees Isaac Fotu and Garret Nevels will help keep them in games. UPDATE: To make matters worse, head coach Gib Arnold was relieved of duties on October 28 as the program faces an NCAA investigation. UPDATE #2: As part of the investigation Fotu is now ineligible as well. With this turmoil, we have dropped our prediction for the Rainbow Warriors down to a last place finish.