Bracket Projections (and Highlighted Games): Monday, November 16th

NEWS AND NOTES

-We will be recording our Hoops HD Report Podcast tonight and posting it tomorrow.  We’ll review all of the action from the opening weekend, and looking at the upcoming exempt tournaments

-Grand Canyon won their opener against Portland State.  They are our favorites to finish first in the WAC, and we would be projecting them into the field if they were eligible, but because they are a transitional team, they are not.  Grand Canyon is our adopted team!!  They are the Team of the People!!  LET’S FIGHT FOR THE LOPES!!  Tweet at the NCAA!!  #LopesWaiver

BRACKET NOTES

-You don’t need to tell me that doing brackets this early is pointless, or that the bracket below looks completely insane.  I know that.  So, why do a bracket when most teams have only played one game??  In truth, it’s not very practical to build a bracket that forecasts anything at this point because all 351 teams are separated by just two games.  Going through this process is more about beginning to monitor the teams than it is evaluating their tournament resumes (which only have one game on them at this point), so you have to look at this in that context.

-There are basically three categories of teams right now; Teams that we think are good but haven’t challenged themselves, teams that we think are good but who lost to weak teams, and teams who we feel aren’t quite so good but who won a big game and therefore earned a good seed.  In other words….

North Carolina, Duke, Kentucky, Virginia, Maryland, Kansas, Arizona, Indiana, and several others haven’t beaten anyone that was all that hard to beat, but they haven’t done anything to show that they aren’t deserving of being highly ranked.

North Florida, Belmont, Radford, William & Mary, James Madison, Western Illinois, Sacramento State, and Chattanooga are all teams that for the most part aren’t likely to end up inside the bubble (although I do think Valpo, Belmont, and perhaps William & Mary might), but they all went on the road and won a game against a good team.  So, they’re all inside the bubble now.

Wisconsin, UCLA, Xavier, and Utah are teams that we think will likely end up very safely in the field, but who either lost a game to a weak team or really struggled against a weak team at home, so they’re seeded poorly or not in the field at all.

-One more thing that you are not likely to see in March is the bubble being at the #14 line, but with so many teams from what are normally one-bid leagues winning big games over the weekend it pushes them up the seed list ahead of the teams on the bubble.  For now.  I don’t anticipate it staying that way.

-There were 97 teams that we considered for the field, and all are listed below in the “Seed List Notes.”

-And, like I said earlier, I know it looks crazy.  You don’t need to tell me that.  The reason it looks crazy is because of what was stated above.

SEED LIST NOTES

1. NORTH CAROLINA – 2-0 with a neutral win vs Temple
2. Duke – 2-0
3. KENTUCKY – 2-0
4. GONZAGA – game against Pitt was cancelled
5. Virginia – 1-0
6. MARYLAND – 1-0
7. KANSAS – 1-0
8. Oklahoma
9. ARIZONA – 1-0
10. Indiana – 1-0. Won easily against Eastern Illinois
11. Iowa State – 1-0 with a win over Colorado
12. VILLANOVA – 1-0. Big win against Fairleigh Dickinson
13. CINCINNATI – 2-0. Impressive showing in both wins
14. Baylor – 1-0. Blasted a good SFA team
15. WICHITA STATE – 1-0
16. Purdue – 2-0. Dominated NC A&T and Vermont
17. Connecticut – 1-0
18. California – 1-0
19. Butler – 1-0. Destroyed the Citadel
20. Vanderbilt – 1-0.
21. Lsu – 1-0. Struggled to beat McNeese State
22. Providence – 1-0. Beat a pretty good Harvard team
23. Michigan. 1-0. Has not yet played a div1 team
24. Notre Dame – 1-0
25. Miami FL – 1-0
26. Michigan State 1-0. Dominated Florida Atlantic
27. WILLIAM & MARY. 1-0. Decisive road win at NC State
28. NORTH FLORIDA – 1-0. Decisive road win at Illinois
29. SAN DIEGO STATE – 1-0. Beat a decent Illinois State team
30. DAYTON – 1-0. Decisive win against SEMO
31. West Virginia – 1-0
32. James Madison – 1-0. Impressive road win at Richmond
33. Rhode Island – 1-0. Beat American, but lost a E. C. Matthews to injury
34. Florida State – 1-0
35. VALPARAISO – 2-0. Decisive win against a good Iona team
36. WESTERN ILLINOIS – 1-0. Won at Wisconsin
37. RADFORD – 1-0. Won at Georgetown
38. MONMOUTH – 1-0. Won at UCLA
39. CHATTANOOGA – won at Georgia
40. Vcu – 1-0
41. BELMONT – 1-0. Won at Marquette
42. Oregon – 1-0
43. Utah – 1-0. Struggled against a very weak Southern Utah team
44. Ohio State – 1-0. Dominated a fairly decent Mount Saint Mary’s team
45. Xavier – 1-0. Struggled against what appears to be a weak Miami OH team
46. Louisville – 1-0
47. Wake Forest – Nice road win at Bucknell
48. SACRAMENTO STATE – 1-0. Won @ Arizona State
49. Auburn – 1-0. Has several injured players, but still beat UAB
50. OLD DOMINION – 1-0
51. Tulsa – 1-0
52. Utah State – 1-0. David Collette has left the team, which will hurt
53. Byu – 1-0
54. Texas A&M. 1-0
55. Davidson – 1-0. Struggled against UCF
56. Florida – 1-0
57. Washington – 1-0. Win against Texas in China
58. Northeastern – 1-0. Road win at Boston U.
59. Iowa – 1-0. Win over Gardner Webb
60. Oregon State – has yet to play a div1 game
61. Evansville – 1-0. Win against SEMO
62. CENTRAL MICHIGAN – 1-0. Struggled to beat Jacksonville St.
63. Loyola Chicago – 2-0. Just one div1 win against UTSA
64. UC IRVINE – 1-0
65. LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE – has yet to play a div1 team
66. Saint Joe’s – 1-0. Win against a decent Drexel team
67. George Washington – 1-0.
68. COLUMBIA – Has not yet played a div1 team
69. ALBANY – Good showing against Kentucky
70. Oklahoma State – 1-0
71. Northwestern – 1-0. Beat a weak UMass Lowell team
72. South Dakota State – has not yet played a div1 team
73. NORTH DAKOTA STATE – 1-1
74. Wisconsin – 1-1. Lost to Western Illinois
75. Minnesota – 2-0. Beat a fairly decent ULM team
76. Colorado State – 1-0. Won at Northern Iowa
77. DePaul – 1-0. Nice win against a fairly decent Western Michigan team
78. Seton Hall – 2-0, but wins came against low caliber teams
79. Texas – 0-1. Lost to Washington
80. South Carolina – 1-0. Win against Norfolk St.
81. STEPHEN F AUSTIN – 0-1. Blown out by Baylor
82. Nebraska – 1-0
83. Creighton – 1-0. Dominated Texas Southern
84. Georgetown – 0-1. Lost to Radford.
85. New Mexico – 2-0. Won at New Mexico State
86. Boise State – 0-1. lost at Montana
87. Ole Miss – 1-0
88. Stanford – 2-0. Struggled against Green Bay
89. Nevada – 2-0. Decisive win against Coastal Carolina
90. Fresno State – 1-0. Struggled to beat Pepperdine
91. Unlv – 1-0. Barely beat Cal Poly
92. Georgia – 0-1. Lost at home to Chattanooga
93. Ucla – 1-1. Lost to Radford. Struggled with Cal Poly
94. BUCKNELL – 0-1. Lost at home to a good Wake Forest team
95. NEW MEXICO STATE – 1-1
96. ALABAMA A&M – 1-0. Won against Tulane
97. HAMPTON – 0-1
98. SACRED HEART – 1-0. Only NEC team to win a div1 game so far

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES FOR MONDAY, NOVEMBER 16TH

-VIRGINIA AT GEORGE WASHINGTON.  Virginia loves to play an early road game against a regional team every year.  It’s a chance for them to pick up a notable road win if they win, and it’s not overly damaging for them if they don’t win.  It’s a huge chance for GW to take on a highly ranked team on their home floor.

-JAMES MADISON AT WEST VIRGINIA.  This is a big game for a James Madison.  They’re a good team, and this is the kind of win that would impress the committee and land them inside the bubble.

-LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE AT MIAMI FL.  Louisiana Lafayette is one of the favorites to win the Sun Belt.  This is a big test for them as they take on what looks to be a good Miami team that won their first game.

-SAN DIEGO STATE AT UTAH.  Both teams won their first game and appear to be solid NCAA Tournament teams, so it’ll be a quality win for whoever pulls it off.

-UTRGV AT NORTH FLORIDA.  North Florida had a big win in their first game and shouldn’t have too much trouble improving to 2-0 in their home opener.

-BELMONT AT ARIZONA STATE.  Belmont already has one notable road win at Marquette, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they picked up another one tonight against an Arizona State team who lost their home opener.

-BAYLOR AT OREGON.  Both teams are 1-0 and are likely tournament teams.  Baylor looked very impressive in their opener as they blasted a pretty good SFA team.

-BUFFALO AT OLD DOMINION.  ODU won their opener and can improve to 2-0 as they take on a Buffalo team that’s rebuilding.

-TENNESSEE AT GEORGIA TECH.  I’m not expecting too much from either team this year, but as for now both are 1-0.

-ORAL ROBERTS AT SOUTH CAROLINA.  Both teams are 1-0.

-COLUMBIA AT KANSAS STATE.  Columbia is one of the favorites to win the Ivy League.  K State, who won their opener, is their first div1 opponent and it wouldn’t shock me at all if the Lions pulled it out.

-NORTHERN ARIZONA AT BOISE STATE.  Boise doesn’t have a huge margin for error if they want to make the NCAAs, so they need to rebound after losing their opener.

-BYU AT LONG BEACH STATE.  BYU won their opener and will try to add a road win to their resume.

-ELON AT MICHIGAN.  Buy game, but Elon did win their opener.

-AUSTIN PEAY AT INDIANA.  Buy game.

-NC A&T AT FLORIDA.  Buy game.

-CHICAGO STATE AT IOWA STATE. Buy game.

-SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AT TEXAS A&M. Buy game

-ARKANSAS PINE BLUFF AT OKLAHOMA STATE.  Buy game.  Both teams are 1-0.

-GARDNER WEBB AT VANDERBILT.  Buy game

-KENNESAW STATE AT LSU.  Buy game

-UC SANTA BARBARA AT CALIFORNIA.  Buy game.  Both teams 1-0.