Bracket Projections: December 21st

Below are the most recent Hoops HD Bracket Projections, as well as comments and critique from some of the staff…

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Bracket Posted by John Stalica on Monday, December 21st at 9:30am, est

This represents the pre-Christmas checkpoint (not the one that David Griggs tries to avoid at NCAA headquarters) of all the NCAA teams in the bracket.

One of the big movers over the past 2 weeks is Xavier. We expected both Michigan and Cincinnati to be signature wins, but Alabama, USC and Dayton have also proven to be significant wins as well. They are about to embark on a tough 3-game stretch that includes games at Wake Forest, at Villanova and at home against Butler. They have earned a #1 seed for now, but their region would rival that of Wichita State’s Group of Death from 2 seasons earlier.

It seems a little odd to see Kentucky and Duke as low as they are, but Duke’s only wins against teams currently projected in the field are Indiana (which barely made the cut this week) and Yale. And at the rate the Ivy League is playing right now, they could conceivably be playing in a First Four matchup this seaon. Kentucky is a little better with wins over Duke and Arizona State (and I suppose Albany counts), but they picked the wrong season to lose to Ohio State.

I also believe that Monmouth, Arkansas-Little Rock and Texas-Arlington are at-large caliber teams based on their current merits. I would also not recommend losing to teams like Canisius going forward.

I do think that UNLV is at-large worthy for now, if only because they have played a brutal schedule and even managed a few noteworthy wins over Oregon and Indiana. Unfortunately, the Mountain West is not going to offer many opportunities for signature wins this season.

A plethora of teams normally from one-bid leagues have at-large credentials at the moment, which is also forcing play-in games down to the 13-seed line. It is very unlikely that the Selection Committee would send a team to either Spokane or Denver, but that was my only option this week. Even bumping a couple of teams down to the 14-line does not work since it causes bracketing principles to be broken in 1st-round matchups involving conference foes.

EDIT (Bracket updated at 2:15 PM, est) – The real chairman of the committee, Chad Sherwood, has informed me that Duke and Virginia cannot be in the same region (nor, for that matter, can Purdue and Maryland), so Duke and Purdue will be trading places.

COMMENTS FROM DAVID

-Xavier may seem overseeded at #1, but at this point in time I can’t say I disagree with it.  They have five notable wins, and four came away from home.  I don’t know if they’re good enough to end up on the top line come March, but if they can continue winning away from home they’ll have a strong case.

-It appears as though Chattanooga, Little Rock, Valpo, and Monmouth are all inside his bubble, but barely.  I would actually make a case that they belong several lines higher than that.  Monmouth has played just one home game, and posted an 8-3 record with wins against USC, Notre Dame, UCLA, and Georgetown all away from home.  They do have one loss to Canisius that has us holding our noses, but I think they’ve done more than enough to offset that.

-Louisville is interesting.  They’ve looked good enough to be a protected seed, but if you look at their paper all they’ve done is blow out weak teams in buy games and almost beat Michigan State.  If you’re using the eye test, you could have them on the #4 line or higher.  If you’re just going off the paper, you could almost make a case that they don’t belong at all.  John has them on the #7 line.  Perhaps he compromised.

COMMENTS FROM CHAD

– I don’t have too much more to add than what David said other than a few comments on the lower lines.  I do not understand Hofstra on the 12 line, inside the bubble.  They have four losses, including to Indiana State and Siena, with only the Florida State win being of note.

– I also wonder why Texas Tech is not in this field — they have not beaten anyone, but only have one loss.  That merits consideration at least.  On the same token, where are Pitt, Seton Hall and Florida?  I will take what they have done so far over the likes or Oregon State, Marquette, Florida State and Indiana.

– Finally, I guess the elephant in the room is that Wichita State is not in the field.  They have looked like an NCAA team, and I am not sure you can punish them too much for the 8th place finish at the Advocare Invitational given that VanVleet was out.  I would probably have sent them to the First Four, more based on eye test since his return (despite the Seton Hall loss) than based on their paper.

– EDIT (2:30 PM): Regarding the 2:15 PM Edit – John claims it was just  mistake, but we all know that in reality he thought Maryland was an ACC team.  We forgive him as, after all, David still thinks Colorado is in the Big 8 and Texas A&M is in the Southwest Conference.