Joby’s Nitty Gritty Rankings: Dec 21st

Posted on December 21, 2015 by David Griggs

Last updated on Monday, December 21st at 9:30am, est

Joby’s Nitty Gritty Rankings Explained

Joby’s Nitty Gritty rankings were created as an attempt to quantify the characteristics the selection committee has always stated and shown to be important as key factors in their analysis.  I actually draw from what is known as the “nitty gritty sheet” that the Committee uses in taking the inputs for the statistics that make up these ratings.  Thus, why it is known as my Nitty Gritty Ratings.

The baseline for strength is on the RPI.  The Committee, rightfully or wrongfully, has repeatedly used the RPI as the baseline to determine what a “good win” (typically top 50) or a “bad loss” (typically anything above 100) is.  Other factors such as high level wins away from home, conference leaders, overall records, SOS, and “playing hot” are all components that comprise my ratings.

The ratings in their first year showed some strength.  When nobody thought UCLA should even get close to a bid, the ratings revealed that they actually were in the thick of the discussion (further proof the ratings are meant to mimic the Committee, NOT evaluate merit in a manner that I feel should be adopted).  I know of few other “formulas” that have the ability to accomplish this task.

Latest Rankings and Notes

Everyone is asleep so was able to compile rings through Saturday (waiting on Jerry’s nitty gritty sheets to pop on CBS of yesterdays games as that makes it a LOT easier to do than realtimerpi)  Only Pitt will be affected dramatically by my quick look at the Sunday results as they will move all the way up to around 12th from 24th.
Feel free if nobody wants to bracket to pick apart the seedings set from these.  Once again zero eye test.  It is just how I think the committee would mathematically look at these teams if there was a blind resume test.  To answer the first question, Dayton is the last 1 seed because they have 3 top 50 wins 5 top 100 wins.  Not many teams can match that and of those 5, 2 of those were neutral and one on the road.  Their losses are both to top 25 teams including the overall #1 seed.
Top 4 seed lines:
1: Xavier, Michigan St, Oklahoma & Dayton
2: UNC, Iowa St, Purdue & Miami
3: Virginia, Butler, Angry Frank, & George Washington
4: USC-West, Texas Tech, Utah & Arizona
(ok this line will need some explanation – yes Texas Tech’s resume is fraudulent but until Sam Houston, South Dakota St & Hawaii drop they are all quality wins and their only loss is to fellow 4 seed Utah; The Trojans have a nice top 25 split with Monmouth and some decent away from home performances with the only loss to the overall #1 seed – you can now see how Xavier earned that overall #1 by transitive property)
Last 4 in
Iowa, Curtain of Distraction!!!, Michigan & Marquette
(Marquette better get their RPI up as at some point soon, the formula will begin to automatically eliminate them from consideration if they are still 150)
First 4 out
Wake, Florida St, Vandy & Baylor
(one could make an argument for all 4 out to be better than all four in)
Other notable “ins” that are outliers for people: Alabama, Kansas St, Cal, UT-Arlington, Oregon St (wow the Pac-12 is getting a lot of love from the nitty gritty sheet early on – I predict this will really help them come selection time – UCLA part deux), S. Joe’s, St Mary’s & a NORTHWESTERN!!!!!!! (who is basically undefeated in the eyes of the computer.)  I would also add the entire first 4 to this list of debatables.
People left out but in on many other people’s fields: both Indiana & Notre Dame, Georgia, Gonzaga and Northern Iowa.  I have to be honest.  Don’t know really why UNI is not getting more love.  They have two great wins as a % of their resume, which the sheet usually loves.  The loss to Colorado St at home is just KILLING them. (they would be safely in the field had that game never happened but it drops them 25 spots on the s-curve).  Most of the time going into conference play for non-major conferences will hurt teams (e.g. UT-Arlington will almost surely face this) but as Northern Iowa piles up wins in the MVC, they should be helped. (same with conference brethren Wichita St who is ineligible at present given their .500 record)
RANK
1 Xavier 2
2 Michigan St 1.958333333
3 Oklahoma 1.90625
4 Dayton 1.725
5 UNC 1.545454545
6 Iowa St 1.525
7 Purdue 1.520833333
8 Miami (fl) 1.45
9 Virginia 1.375
10 Butler 1.275
11 S. Carolina 1.225
12 GW 1.181818182
13 Southern Cal 1.136363636
14 Texas Tech 1.111111111
15 Utah 1.068181818
16 Arizona 1.041666667
17 Texas A&M 1.022727273
18 UALR 1
18 Kansas 1
20 Villanova 0.95
21 Providence 0.916666667
22 Texas 0.909090909
23 Monmouth 0.9
24 Pitt 0.888888889
25 Chattanooga 0.886363636
26 Colorado 0.863636364
27 Alabama 0.861111111
28 Oregon 0.840909091
29 Cincinnati 0.833333333
30 West Virginia 0.8
30 Kansas St 0.8
32 Valpo 0.791666667
33 Seton Hall 0.727272727
34 Louisville 0.725
35 Kentucky 0.704545455
35 Maryland 0.704545455
37 California 0.681818182
38 UTA 0.675
38 Oregon St 0.675
40 Duke 0.659090909
41 UCLA 0.604166667
42 Florida 0.575
42 St. Joe’s 0.575
44 Nwestern 0.568181818
45 St. Mary’s 0.527777778
46 Iowa 0.522727273
47 Arizona St 0.5
48 Michigan 0.479166667
49 Marquette 0.475
50 Wake Forest 0.45
51 Florida St 0.4
52 Vanderbilt 0.35
52 Baylor 0.35
54 Ole Miss 0.340909091
55 Indiana 0.333333333
56 Fordham 0.325
57 S. Dakota St 0.3125
58 New Mexico 0.3
59 Evansville 0.295454545
60 S. Illinois 0.25
61 Notre Dame 0.225
62 Georgia 0.21875
63 Duquesne 0.208333333
64 La Tech 0.204545455
65 Davidson 0.1875
66 Mercer 0.181818182
67 N. Iowa 0.175
68 Hawaii 0.15625
69 Army 0.15
70 Houston 0.138888889
71 Auburn 0.125
72 Gonzaga 0.113636364
73 Tulsa 0.090909091
73 NC State 0.090909091
75 St. Bonnie 0.083333333
76 Memphis 0.025
77 Syracuse 0.022727273
78 Georgia Tech 0
79 JMU -0.022727273
80 Washington -0.025
81 Richmond -0.05
82 Penn St -0.068181818
83 BYU -0.075
84 MTSU -0.083333333
85 Coll of Charlstn -0.1
86 Kent St -0.111111111
87 Oakland -0.15
88 IPFW -0.192307692
89 UConn -0.222222222
90 UNLV -0.270833333
91 UAB -0.272727273
92 Fresno St -0.295454545
93 Rhode Island -0.409090909
93 Creighton -0.409090909
95 Illinois -0.416666667
96 Northeastern -0.431818182
97 Georgia St -0.46875
98 Hofstra -0.472222222
99 UC-Irvine -0.520833333
100 Tx A&M-CC -0.55
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