NEWS AND NOTES
-For Jon Teitel’s latest bracket projections – CLICK HERE
-For Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day – CLICK HERE
-The last day of 2016 was a busy day on the hardwood. Duke and North Carolina both lost their conference openers. Duke went down at Virginia Tech, who’s good, but it was still somewhat surprising that VA Tech was able to run away from them the way that they did. North Carolina’s loss was a bit more shocking at Georgia Tech. The same Georgia Tech team who had to sweat out North Carolina A&T earlier in the week. Yes, NC A&T played a better game against Georgia Tech than the Tarheels did.
Now, while this wasn’t what everyone was expecting, it wasn’t COMPLETELY out of left field. The number of true road games Duke had played before going to Virginia Tech was at a grand total of zero. So, it’s not shocking that they’d lose on the road to a good team in a hostile environment. North Carolina had played on the road, but their only true road wins are Tulane and Hawaii. They had lost their game at Indiana. Teams that play a limited number (or in Duke’s case, zero) of true OOC road games in hostile environments tend to struggle in road games once conference play begins. So, while it’s surprising, it’s not alarming, and it probably isn’t an indicator of where these teams will end up once they get used to playing away from home.
-Villanova IS used to playing on the road, and they picked up another very impressive win at Creighton. Nova now has two true road wins against protected seeded caliber teams. Yeah, that’s a #1 seed caliber profile in case you’re wondering.
-Louisville rebounded from their loss against Virginia. Indiana did not rebound from their loss against Nebraska. The two met in Indianapolis yesterday with Louisville keeping Indiana at arms length for most of the game.
-Virginia, after looking so good against Louisville, lost at home to Florida State in a game that surprised me just as much as the Duke and UNC losses. It’s a terrific win for the Seminoles and solidifies them not just as a tournament team, but as a potential protected seed if they can keep that up.
-Notre Dame picked up what I feel is their biggest win of the year so far with a road win at Pitt.
-UCF’s game against Temple was over before it even started. They blasted the Owls. Temple, who we deemed schizophrenic but still good enough to play their way into the discussion, is now 0-2 in conference play.
-I think we can stop talking about Wyoming now. The team that I felt was the best in the Mountain West and one of just two that could play their way inside the bubble lost at UNLV yesterday. As for Nevada, who was the other team we liked, they lost as well. To Fresno State. The Mountain West is now looking like the #12 line is their ceiling, if it’s even that high.
-And everyone’s favorite Little Engine that Could, the Monmouth Hawks!! They LOST at home in overtime to Rider. We can all slap our foreheads now. I know many feel that it isn’t fair that a team like Monmouth doesn’t get the same opportunities that a power conference team does at notable wins, and they’re right. But last year it wasn’t the lack of notable wins that ultimately sunk Monmouth. It was losing to teams that essentially amount to losing a buy game. If Rider were to play at Notre Dame, we’d list it as a buy game and that would be our only mention of it. A true tournament team wins that game each and every time. We only mention it if they do not. So, when Monmouth loses a game like that it hurts their profile. They need to run the table until the conference tournament if they want to be able to get an at-large bid. Period. And, if they truly are a tournament caliber team, they should be able to run the table and beat a bunch of teams that are nowhere near making the field.
HIGHLIGHTED GAMES
-NEBRASKA AT MARYLAND (Big Ten). Nebraska won their conference opener at Indiana, and look to remain in first place if they can take out Maryland today! In all seriousness, Maryland is one of those teams that has a bloated record, but that we still have questions about. This is a winnable conference home game for them today.
-SYRACUSE AT BOSTON COLLEGE (ACC). If Syracuse is going to play their way back into the discussion then they cannot afford to lose to BC today.
-BRADLEY AT WICHITA STATE (Missouri Valley). Wichita State should be fine so long as they hold serve, which means beating all the sub-NIT teams in the league, which means winning games like the on they’re playing today.
-MICHIGAN AT IOWA (Big Ten). Michigan’s profile still appears to be solid, but they don’t have a true road win yet, so although Iowa isn’t anything special a win today would add something to their profile that they need.
-PENN STATE AT RUTGERS (Big Ten). Rutgers is much improved, but still has a ways to go before we can call them a tournament caliber team. Still, they should be able to win at home today and keep themselves in the discussion.
-PROVIDENCE AT BUTLER (Big East). Hopefully Butler has gotten over what was a genuine scare as their plane lost cabin pressure on their way home from Saint John’s. They face a good but not great Providence team at home today in a game they should win.
-MINNESOTA AT PURDUE (Big Ten). Minnesota’s record is still bloated, but I’m still selling them rather than buying them. Now, if they pick up a win at Purdue today, my entire opinion of them will change.
-MARQUETTE AT SETON HALL (Big East). Seton Hall isn’t as good as the top of the Big East, but they seem a lot better to me than what they’ve gotten credit for. Marquette has had a decent season as well, but they need a big road win like this in order to get their profile to the point to where it will jump out at the committee.
-UAB AT MIDDLE TENNESSEE (Conference USA). We still like this Middle Tennessee team despite a somewhat surprising loss in their last game. They are good enough to run the table in CUSA, and if they do they should be safe for a bid regardless of what happens in the conference tournament.
-COLORADO AT UTAH (Pac Twelve). Both teams have work to do, and both need to be able to win games like this.
-OHIO STATE AT ILLINOIS (BIG TEN). I’ve liked most of what I’ve seen out of Ohio State this year, but certainly not all of it. Still, with Illinois being 7-1 at home this year this would be a nice conference road win that their resume seems to need at the moment.
-TULANE AT CINCINNATI (American). It’s not a buy game, but it should end up looking like one.
-ARIZONA AT STANFORD (Pac Twelve). Arizona had an exciting come from behind win against Cal in their last game, and they should be favored against a Stanford team that’s coming off a home loss to Arizona State.
-ARIZONA STATE AT CALIFORNIA (Pac Twelve). Cal’s team should be good enough to land in the NCAA, but right now Cal’s profile is far from it. They cannot afford a home loss to what appears to be a sub-NIT team.