This is not a prediction of what I think the actual selection committee will do on Selection Sunday, but rather what I personally think the tournament SHOULD look like if the season ended today. Therefore, some of the things may look a little strange. My comments are below the bracket. Other Hoops HD Staffers have also commented on this. If they disagree with anything I’ve done, then they are wrong!!
DAVID’S NOTES
-Gonzaga’s resume isn’t as good as Florida State’s in terms of quality wins, but they are unbeaten and have been absolutely blowing through their schedule. Considering that the Zags are undefeated and have a decisive neutral floor win against Arizona I think that they are legitimately the fourth best team in the country and are deserving of the #1 line. I think the real committee will give the Zags the #1 line if they do manage to win out.
-Creighton on the #5 line may seem low considering their profile, but they lost their best player for the season and lost at home to Marquette in their first game without him. I think they will struggle down the stretch and maybe fall even lower than that before it’s over.
-TCU on the #9 line is the highest I’ve ever had them. Their resume isn’t great, but it isn’t bad either. You also have to consider that a lot of the teams that are hovering around the bubble have gaping holes in their resume.
-The real committee isn’t likely to put Middle Tennessee or UNC Wilmington this far inside the bubble, but when I look at their road wins, and how they’ve held serve and not really done anything to indicate that don’t belong this high, and that I think that on equal terms they’d beat the power conference teams that I have seeded below them, then that’s how I justify putting them where they are.
-Clemson has lost six straight, but there are three things keeping them in. None of those losses were bad losses, they still have some good wins, and everyone else’s profile who I didn’t take pretty much stinks.
-Memphis is my last team in. Perhaps the real committee wouldn’t even look at them. But they have semi-decent wins at Oklahoma and at Houston, and another decent win against UCF. That’s far from great, but I feel it’s better than what the teams behind them have done, and, I think they’re a better team than the teams that I didn’t take.
-New Mexico State is inside the bubble, as are Akron and Illinois State. They’re all kind of sandwiched between the teams in the First Four on my seed list. I don’t think the real committee would have these teams this high, but I think they’re better than all the teams I’ve left out.
OTHERS CONSIDERED: Michigan, Illinois, VCU, La Salle, Rhode Island, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Wake Forest, Providence. (EDIT: I always like to give my critics the last word, but I’ve taken a rare liberty and opted to bold Arkansas, and their top wins against Tennessee, Houston, and UTA to answer Chad’s question of where Arkansas is – Puppet)
COMMENTS FROM JOHN
– I still think it’s a little too early to put Gonzaga on the 1-line. Not just because the quality wins aren’t going to be there, but because Baylor is still being punished for one bad outing in Morgantown. Their wins at TCU and Kansas State are starting to look more significant, scary as that sounds.
– Arizona had quietly put together a nice quantity of wins this season, but now have quality after sweeping the most difficult roadie that the Pac-12 offers this year with the sweep at USC and UCLA. I’d even argue that UCLA and Notre Dame should trade places for the time being – the quality of Notre Dame’s wins are better than what UCLA has at this checkpoint.
– Creighton is an interesting case here – they did lose at home to Marquette, but they also played a good portion of the game AT Xavier without Maurice Watson Jr. They had a slight lead when he left the game for good, and still managed to get their best win of the year without him. I don’t think one loss takes them out of protected seed territory yet. Frankly, I wouldn’t have been shocked had Marquette won at Creighton WITH Watson given how the Golden Eagles themselves have played of late. They could just as easily have won at Seton Hall and at Butler, but they finally learned how to close out a game on the road.
– I think the Puppet knows this will cause me pain, but he has Cincinnati too low here. If you’re going to make the argument that Gonzaga is tearing through their schedule, the Bearcats are also making the American look like the Rookie Level in Madden. They get one more opportunity for a signature non-conference win at home against Xavier. The Muskies will also come into this game with their annual sense of urgency, but this will be a harder one to win this year. They have never beaten UC in 4 straight games.
– Kansas State, Memphis and Utah are all interesting selections. Those are profiles that don’t stand out much among other bubble teams, but they are at least winning SOME games right now as opposed to teams like Clemson and Pitt that have gone ice-cold of late. Utah had better be well inside the bubble at the end of the year; their OOC schedule was atrocious and may end up keeping them out much like South Carolina last year. I would still choose Arkansas and Michigan over teams like Clemson and Pitt right now.
– The Puppet is still leaning towards Chattanooga instead of UNC-Greensboro. Am I the only UTR guy that still loves puppies?
COMMENTS FROM CHAD
– I agree with John on it still being too early to have the Zags on the top line. I would have Florida State and Baylor both up here with Kentucky and the Zags on the 2 line. Did we all just forget about Baylor after they lost that game to WVU?
– I fully support Arizona on the 2 line. I couldn’t disagree more about UCLA there. All they did was pull off one upset. Their metrics say they should be a 4 seed. Their resume says they should be a 4 seed. They should be a 4 seed, at best. And below Oregon. David is a lot like a Top 25 pollster, once he places a team high on his personal rankings, they have to commit multiple sins to fall back down, even if they were overrated from the start.
– I agree with David about Creighton. Until they can prove they can win without Mo Watson, they cannot be a protected seed.
– I would have Cincinnati one line higher, but I don’t have a problem with them as a 6 like John does.
– Minnesota had a rough loss to Wisconsin, but I still like their overall profile enough to be a couple lines higher than David has them.
– I love Wilmington and Middle Tennessee’s profiles compared to the Bubble garbage, but 9 seed is probably a line too high.
– Iowa State and TCU are good enough to be in this field — but barely. Neither belongs on the 9 line, ahead of teams like Marquette. TCU would be my last team in right now. You don’t move up for losing close games, David.
– Those that know me would think this is where I would rip Kansas State as a team that does not belong in. But unlike David with his inability to rid himself of preconceived notions about teams like UCLA, I can admit when I am wrong. I think David has them right where they belong.
– David thinks I am going to blast his Memphis selection, but I can live with it. I do not understand Utah and Cal at this point though as neither team has beaten anyone other than a USC team that is fading fast. I would have Michigan in the field and probably above the First Four. I would have taken Rhode Island or even Wichita State before those two also.
– David — WHERE IS ARKANSAS??? yes, they lack the Top 50 wins, but so do a ton of the at-large teams you took. Unlike teams you took, they have multiple Top 100 wins and only one sub-Top 20 loss. You want to seriously argue that New Mexico State ranks higher than them on your seed list? I will take them over Iowa State, Clemson, Pitt, Memphis, Georgia, Cal, Utah, TCU, Akron, Illinois State and probably a few others. How about looking at their profile before you leave them out?!?!?
– Finally to John — Get over it with UNC-Greensboro. Hell, the NCAA relocated the first and second round games from Greensboro to Greenville, SC because even they knew that the Spartans were not the best team in the SoCon. I don’t even think they are the second best. If you wanted to make an argument like this on the single-bid conferences, I would at least have listened to Georgia Southern instead of Texas-Arlington from the Sun Belt. You would have still been wrong, but I would have listened.