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Below are my latest bracket projections, and below that are some comments from myself and from the rest of the staff. Some of the rest of the staff, especially that Stalica guy, are going to probably disagree with what I’ve done. HE IS WRONG!!
This is NOT a forecast of what I think the bracket WILL look like on Selection Sunday. I am making no attempt whatsoever to guess the actual committee two months before the Selection Show. Jon Teitel does that, and he is one of the best in the world at it, so if that is what you’re looking for then this isn’t for you.
This is what I think the bracket SHOULD look like if the season ENDED TODAY.
-The bracket reflects all games played through Sunday, Dec 22nd
OTHERS CONSIDERED: UNC Greensboro, Richmond, George Mason, Illinois, Oklahoma, Rutgers, Ole Miss, Houston, Florida, Miami FL, Xavier, VCU, Pittsburgh, SMU, USC, UConn, Saint Louis, Arizona State, New Mexico, Marquette, Akron, Arkansas
-Basically everyone on my top two lines has some sort of high caliber win away from home. Michigan’s resume is probably a little stronger than Memphis’s, but Michigan also doesn’t have a true road win yet. Having said that, the three wins down in the Bahamas were spectacular, so I can understand that there is a strong argument to have them on the #3 line. My other issue with them is…well…they just haven’t looked all that good since that tournament.
-Saint John’s resume looks really good, especially with the wins against West Virginia and Arizona. This is a team that has improved as the season has progressed. Mike Anderson has done an amazing job with the Johnnies, and they won’t be an easy team to beat in the Big East.
-When I look at the teams that were omitted, I can understand thinking that Florida, and Xavier, and a few others, they just haven’t done anything, nor have they looked all that good. Having said that, Xavier did get a nice road win against TCU yesterday, and looked good doing it, but TCU is hardly a consensus NCAA Tournament caliber team.
-Dayton is a case of a team being a lot better than their resume. They do have a dominant road win over a pretty solid Saint Mary’s team, but nothing against anyone that’s solidly in the top half of the bracket. Not only that their opportunities will be limited the rest of the way. I have them as a protected seed, and it’s very conceivable that they could end up there, but it is unusual for a team to get a protected seed with no wins against the top half of the bracket. They lost to Colorado in overtime this past weekend. Beating them would have made a world of difference.
-Lastly, we’ve got some UTR teams that are inside the bubble. I like this Northern Iowa team a ton and think they will end up ranked in the top 25 before the season is over. Liberty and SFA also have a real good shot at winning out or coming close to it. If they do that, then they’ll have resumes with bloated records, but very little in the way of top 200 wins. SFA does have that huge win at Duke, and I think that will help them out a ton when it comes to seeding, and perhaps make it so they don’t need to win the Southland Tournament. All three are interesting cases. They could all three have huge records, be ranked in the top 25, but have a very limited number of top 100 wins (and in the case of SFA and Liberty, a limited number of top 200 wins)
COMMENTS FROM STAFF
From Chad:
I only have one comment. Virginia is an 8 seed. Wow, Tony Bennett’s seat is definitely getting hot!!!!
From that Stalica guy:
-In honor of today’s Festivus celebrations, it is now time for the Airing of Grievances against the Puppet. We definitely need to start with his obsession with having Dayton as a protected seed. I know he’s still stuck on their performance in Maui against Georgia, Virginia Tech and their near win against Kansas. I still think they’re about 5 or 6-seedish, but I would say that a 3 is frankly their ceiling if they’re able to take care of business in the A-10.
-On the other hand, I do appreciate that David is starting to come around on Penn State this year. Their win at Georgetown continues to look better and better, and their only real strike at this point was losing to Ole Miss in come-from-ahead fashion back in November.
-I’ll agree that Northern Iowa has earned the right to be above the bubble, but I would again say that a seed like #6 is their ceiling, not their current checkpoint. I do not agree that Liberty gets the benefit of the doubt yet as to whether or not they should be above the First Four right now. At least not until they can pass their test at LSU after Christmas break.
-Kentucky. Honestly, I’m not sure I would even have them in my field right now, much less on my first ballot (aka top 8 seed caliber). They do have a season-opening win against Michigan State, but that has been watered down by the Spartans’ underwhelming start this season. Losses to Evansville and Utah negate that, and quite frankly if your best win besides that is Georgia Tech, we need to send them to the Feats of Strength. Until then, Festivus is not over.
-Texas is this year’s box of chocolates from Forrest Gump – we just never know what we’ll get. One minute they’re winning soundly at Purdue, the next minute they’re getting humiliated against a Providence team that is the only real disappointment in the Big East. And that’s not counting the food fight they had at home against McNeese before they cleaned up that mess and managed to get a W.
-Minnesota. If this were last week, I would have given this bracket an F and told the Puppet to redo his homework. This week, the Gophers have improved with wins at home against Ohio State and in a quasi-road environment against Oklahoma State. I still think they need a few more wins of note to get in, but their schedule is about as brutal as anyone has played so far this year.