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This bracket considers all games played through Sunday, February 23rd.
This is NOT an attempt to guess what the actual Selection Committee will do on Selection Sunday, nor it is a supposition of what they would do if today were Selection Sunday. This is entirely my own, and depicts the way I personally think the field should look like. For all the committee members that may see this, it is my pleasure to educate you on what you need to be doing!!
Below the bracket are some notes where I explain why I did some of the things I did. Below that are comments from some of the rest of the Hoops HD Staff. If they disagree with anything that I have done, then THEY ARE WRONG!!!
OTHERS CONSIDERED: Saint Mary’s, UNC Greensboro, Cincinnati, Rutgers, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Purdue, Memphis, Rhode Island, Alabama, Texas, Stanford, Notre Dame, Tulsa
NOTES FROM DAVID
-I’ll start on the #1 line with San Diego State being ahead of Gonzaga. I know Gonzaga lost at BYU, and San Diego State lost to a much worse UNLV team. But, you have to look at the whole season. San Diego State won at BYU, and to date is the only team that has. They also have a neutral floor win against a Creighton team that I think is fantastically good. The top of SDSU’s resume is better than the top of Gonzaga’s, and even though SDSU has a poorer loss, it’s also against a team that they managed to beat on the road earlier in the year. I’m not saying that you should not consider the loss, but what I am saying is that upon consideration, I personally like a San Diego State team with better wins who has redeemed their one and only loss over Gonzaga and their current resume.
-I know many people are putting Dayton on the #2 line. I know the actual committee put them on the #2 line a couple weeks ago, and will likely do so on Selection Sunday. If I were guessing the committee, I’d put them on the #2 line, but I’m not. I like this Dayton team a lot, but I just can’t get them that high on my seedlist when they have no wins against anyone in the top half of my bracket. So, while a #3 seed may seem too low based on where they are ranked in the polls, I don’t think I’m being unfair to them when you consider that they are the only team on my top SEVEN lines that has not beaten anyone in the top half of the bracket.
-I have three Big East teams on the #2 line. The Big East is the #1 overall conference in the NET, and while I know that isn’t a factor, Creighton played 5 out of conference games against teams that are either in this bracket or under consideration. Villanova and Seton Hall each played 4. So they’ve played killer schedules and done very well against them, which is why I think they deserve the seeds that I gave them. All of them have also beaten protected seeds in true road games (albeit in some cases those wins came against each other) and won multiple games against teams in the top half of the bracket away from home. While some of the teams on the #3 line have done that as well, I don’t think any of them top out quite as high.
-I do not have Auburn as a protected seed. While I think they’re good, the only team they’ve beaten away from home that I have in the field is Richmond. Beating Kentucky at home is a good home win, but I don’t think that in and of itself is as good as the other teams on the top 4 lines.
-Arizona’s NET is undeniably high, but nothing else about them is. They’ve beaten Colorado at home, which is good, but it’s not top ten good, or even top 25 good. Colorado is just 4-4 in true road games, and a couple of teams outside the top half of the bracket have also beaten them at home. They also have a win against Illinois and won at Stanford, and while that’s a good game to win, I still think it’s only #8 seed good, not #5 seed good. To me, the wins just aren’t there. Just about everyone I have ahead of them has won games that were harder to win.
-UCLA, Providence, and Georgetown are all in the field. I do not think the real committee would take any of those teams, and I realize that some of UCLA’s losses, and the overall number of losses for Providence and Georgetown are a hangup. But with UCLA’s road wins at Arizona and Colorado, Providence’s road wins against Butler and Marquette as well as three others against teams in the top half of the bracket, and Georgetown’s wins at Butler and Creighton (at home) and no bad losses to go along with it, I just think they’ve done WAY more than any of the teams that I didn’t take.
-Saint Mary’s is first team out, or last team out, or next in line, or however you want to phrase it. I know most people like them a lot more than that, but this is their profile: A home win against BYU who is 5-5 on the road with the only notable win coming at Houston, neutral floor wins against Wisconsin and Arizona State, which are decent, but also occurred at a time when neither team was playing as well as they are now, and a home win against Utah State who has an overall losing record on the road. When you consider that in addition to that they have losses to Pacific, Santa Clara, and Winthrop, that looks pretty bubblish to me.
-Lastly, Purdue was considered, but not selected. If you think they are ineligible because they are not above .500, you are wrong. That rule changed years ago (not that it matters), so don’t tweet at me telling me that I don’t know that rule, because if you do then it is you who does not know that rule!!
STAFF COMMENTS
COMMENTS FROM JOHN:
– Personally, I thought the loss by San Diego State was a blessing in disguise – they probably weren’t going to pass Gonzaga for #1 in the West, but would still likely be at worst #5 overall and thus would be in the catbird’s seat to go to the West Regional in nearby Los Angeles anyhow. Yet Gonzaga had their own slipup at BYU, so a case could be made that San Diego State should be #3 overall. Now if Gonzaga does win the WCC Tournament championship, they would likely beat either BYU or Saint Mary’s in the championship along the way. It’s a harder road for them than what SDSU will have left in Vegas in a couple of weeks.
– I think the Big East has been a tough conference this year, but I think it would take a perfect storm for 3 #2 seeds AND eight overall teams into the field. I’d actually agree with Providence in the field given that their good things are outweighing 4 real ugly losses, but I think Georgetown’s roster of paper clips and rubber bands (in the words of Teitel) is starting to catch up with them. They could not afford a DePaul loss, and they really need to beat Xavier at home next weekend along with stealing a win elsewhere before conference play wraps up.
– I know the season doesn’t end today, but has a team ever been seeded as high as #5 with either a losing record or .500 in conference play? We could be looking at a historical mark with Butler here. I did notice that West Virginia is much lower than what we’ve had them, although three of their conference losses can be excused as Baylor and Kansas. When K-State and TCU account for two of those losses, that’s harder to justify.
– I was set to put Colorado in as a protected seed myself, but losing to UCLA twice in the season is going to offset that for me for the time being. We really do live in a parallel universe where six Pac-12 teams are selected, yet Arizona State is the one that is currently leading the conference. To say that the road trip by the Arizona schools to the LA schools this week is huge would be an understatement.
– For teams under the radar, I think an 11 would be the ceiling for Northern Iowa. I would rank them above the First Four if they win out, although I honestly might not be able to make a case for an at-large if they take on one more loss the rest of the way. As the Puppet would say, losing to the Trees might have been their last strike. East Tennessee State has a little more leeway to take on one more loss as long as it were to come against either UNC-Greensboro or Furman in the SoCon championship game.
COMMENTS FROM CHAD:
– I read David’s comments in which he discussed how wins over Creighton, BYU, Utah State and Iowa are better than wins over Arizona, BYU, Oregon and St Mary’s. I read him claim that we should almost ignore San Diego State’s home loss to UNLV because they won in Vegas earlier, but should not ignore Gonzaga’s road loss at BYU despite the Zags having beaten BYU by 23 points at home earlier this year. I read them. They make ZERO sense, but I read them. The Zags are clearly #3 overall and should get the West Regional 1 seed. Case closed.
– Dayton is one of two teams undefeated in their conference (along with New Mexico State) and has won 16 games in a row. They have ROAD wins at Richmond VCU, Saint Louis and Duquesne, all very tough places to win on the road. Sure, they have not beaten a protected seed team this year, but both the Kansas and Colorado games came right down to the wire. Not only would I have them on my 2 line, I could now see a case for a #1 seed if San Diego State slips up again and the Flyers win out the rest of the season (which would include a road win at Rhode Island and an A-10 tourney title).
– I agree with Stalica about Colorado being over-seeded after suffering another home loss. I would probably have Oregon in that spot after their win at Arizona. I do see the case for Auburn as a 4 seed as well, but I can actually live with them on the 5 or 6 line for the reasons David spelled out (I really HATE agreeing with him sometimes). The same goes for Arizona, whom David has lower than I would, but I at least understand the argument.
– David did a good job putting an 18-9 team from the State of Michigan on the 4 line. He just put the wrong one there. The Michigan Wolverines have won 5 in a row, have SEVEN Tier 1 wins, four of which are away from home, and only one loss to a team not in the field (at Minnesota). The Spartans only have five Tier 1 wins, three of which are away from home. I think the bad on both profiles is almost dead even, and the good on Michigan’s side is way better. The two teams should be flipped in the bracket.
– Butler is a perplexing team to me. At one point, this team was playing like a protected seed. Recently, they seem to be playing more like an NIT team. The profile probably screams 5 or 6 seed at the moment, but my personal “eye test” from the last couple of weeks would knock the Bulldogs down to a 7 or 8. Their next two games are home to DePaul and St. John’s. If they cannot sweep this pair of games, the profile may start to catch up with my views.
– I know David has a massive Puppet-crush on Mick Cronin, and I think a case can be made for UCLA to be in this field,, but a 10 seed is ridiculous. I would have the Bruins among my top few teams out right now, and they are definitely trending in the right direction. I guess David likes to ignore winning streaks when they are massively long (see Dayton) but totally jump on a 5 game streak that includes wins at Arizona and Colorado — two places that have not been that hard to win at this season. You cannot ignore losses to Washington State, Notre Dame, Hofstra and Cal State-Fullerton. The Bruins, if in, should be in the First Four in Dayton.
– Saint Mary’s should be in. Oklahoma should be in. Rhode Island should probably be in. Rutgers should be in (albeit probably on their way to Dayton). I can live with Georgetown and/or UCLA in the field (they would in fact be my top two teams out) and I actually agree with Providence being in at the moment. Mississippi State and South Carolina should be in the NIT. Miss State won at Florida and has four losses to teams that would not even be considered for at-large bids. South Carolina did better with wins over Kentucky and Virginia, but also has four losses to teams not on the board, including homes losses to Boston U and Stetson. I think both teams have a path to an at-large bid, but have a lot of work to get there. Oklahoma, on the other hand, does not have any real head-scratching losses and has wins over West Virginia, Minnesota, and Mississippi State. The Sooners three game losing streak does not help, and their next two being against Texas tech and at West Virginia may push them out, but for today they should be in.
– I know David hates Saint Mary’s profile. That is because he is a #StupidPuppet. The Gaels beat BYU, Wisconsin, Arizona State and Utah State, with two of those four wins coming away from home. David has given at-large bids to mediocre power conference teams with 1-2 wins against the field rather than a 23 win WCC team with 4 wins against the field. Billy Packer would be proud of him. I, personally, am disgusted.