HoopsHD starts off the greatest month of the year with a 2-part preview of every single conference tourney in the nation. Jon Teitel kicks it off with his predictions for the 14 conference tourneys getting underway this week and you can check back next weekend for his picks concerning the 18 other conference tourneys.
America East tourney predicted champ: Vermont (#1 seed)
Dates: March 7-14
Location: Campus sites
2019 tourney champ: Vermont (#1 seed)
Fun fact: only 4 schools to make title game in past 8 years are Albany/Stony Brook/UMBC/Vermont
Seeding: each of past 5 champs were top-2 seed
The Seawolves certainly have a chance as 1 of only 2 teams to beat the Catamounts since Christmas…but Vermont is 13-1 since that loss so you have to like their momentum. SR F Anthony Lamb is a 2-time conference tourney MVP and almost led his team to a 1st round upset of Florida State in last year’s NCAA tourney before eventually losing by 7 PTS. Since the higher-seeded school gets to host each tourney game in which they play, Vermont cannot wait to welcome teams to Patrick Gymnasium where they have lost exactly 3 home games this season, Coach John Becker knows how to win games in March: he has made a postseason tourney during each of his 1st 8 years as the head man in Burlington and is well-positioned to make it 9-for-9. Even tall teams will not have much luck inside as the Catamounts are #3 in the nation with 42.1 2P% allowed.
Atlantic Sun tourney predicted champ: Liberty (#1 seed)
Dates: March 3-8
Location: Campus sites
2019 tourney champ: Liberty (#2 seed)
Fun fact: 5 different champs in past 6 years
Seeding: 8 of past 9 champs were top-2 seed
If this game was at a neutral site I would strongly lean toward North Florida, who won 10 of their final 12 including a 1-PT win over Liberty on January 23rd. However, since every game is on campus sites and the Flames have not lost a home game since January 29th…of LAST year, they are the pick when in Lynchburg. Coach Ritchie McKay won the conference tourney last year and then upset Mississippi State in the NCAA tourney before a single-digit loss to Virginia Tech. They are not a big team with 5 starters standing 6’8” or under but they can still do damage inside as their 55.9 2P% is #6 in the country. Give me Liberty or give me…no, I am fine just sticking with Liberty against the field!
Big South tourney predicted champ: Radford (#1 seed)
Dates: March 3-8
Location: Campus sites
2019 tourney champ: Gardner-Webb (#4 seed)
Fun fact: 6 different champs in past 7 years
Seeding: only 3 of past 7 champs were top-2 seed
Winthrop was looking great last month when they were 12-0 in conference play…but 3 losses and a pair of single-digits road wins at Presbyterian/USC Upstate have raised several red flags. On the other hand, Radford has won 17 of 20 since mid-December including a 4-PT win at Winthrop on February 10th. Coach Mike Jones will hardly be comfortable in a game that goes down to the wire as his team’s 63.6 FT% is bottom-20 in the nation. On the plus side, JR PG Carlik Jones is shooting 81.4 FT% and has turned from a bad 3-PT shooter (25.9% last year) into 1 of the best in the entire conference (40.6% this year).
CAA tourney predicted champ: William & Mary (#2 seed)
Dates: March 7-10
Location: Washington, DC
2019 tourney champ: Northeastern (#2 seed)
Fun fact: 7 different champs in past 9 years
Seeding: each of past 19 champs were top-3 seed
The sentimental pick (as always) is the Tribe because they are 1 of only 4 original D-1 schools (along with Army/Citadel/St. Francis NY) who have never made the NCAA tourney. Speaking of postseason droughts, the last time Hofstra made the NCAA tourney was in 2001 when they lost to a UCLA team led by the legendary Dan Gadzuric (14 PTS/13 REB). They might have the best player in school history…on their bench in the form of assistant coach Craig “Speedy” Claxton (1998 & 2000 conference POY). These 2 teams could not have LESS of a home-court advantage: William & Mary destroyed Hofstra in Hempstead by 27 PTS on January 2nd, then lost the rematch in Williamsburg by 23 PTS on February 1st. The Pride appeared to be cruising into March with 8 straight wins before a shocking 11-PT home loss to Towson on February 27th. DC is only 2½ hours north of Williamsburg so 1st year coach Dane Fischer will hope to have a lot of fans making the drive north on I-95. In a historic city of towering monuments he will try to make some history of his own via his twin towers of 6’10” Nathan Knight and 7’ Andy Van Vliet.
Horizon tourney predicted champ: Northern Kentucky (#2 seed)
Dates: March 3-10
Location: Indianapolis, IN
2019 tourney champ: Northern Kentucky (#2 seed)
Fun fact: 5 different champs in past 6 years
Seeding: 7 of past 9 champs were not #1 seed
I like to pick a lot of #1 seeds but not in this conference where the only “chalk” you will see are the pieces left in ruins next to the blackboard in the locker room of the regular season champ. Wright State swept Northern Kentucky this year so we shall go with the theory that it is hard to beat a team 3 times in 1 season. Coach Darrin Horn has come in and had an amazing 1st season with 21 regular season wins yet somehow had a pair of conference losses that were each by 30+ PTS. The Norse were 1 of the only teams in the nation who had 2 of its best players (Jalen Tate/Dantez Walton) each miss 10+ games this year but now that both are healthy they should be prepared for the postseason.
MVC tourney predicted champ: Indiana State (#3 seed)
Dates: March 5-8
Location: St. Louis, MO
2019 tourney champ: Bradley (#5 seed)
Fun fact: 4 different champs in past 4 years
Seeding: 4 of past 5 champs were not #1 seed
Northern Iowa started 22-3 overall and looked like an at-large team before a late-season stumble that included back-to-back losses in mid-February. 1 of those was to the Sycamores, who then won 3 more in a row to finish the regular season with as much momentum as anyone else in this conference. Coach Greg Lansing has not had a winning season since 2014 so you can bet that his players are hungry for some postseason success. Indiana State is top-15 in the nation with 38.1 3P% so they better make a few more if they hope to keep living by the 3. They were battle-tested early with road trips to Dayton/Louisville and have a veteran backcourt in Jordan Barnes/Tyreke Key who can hang with anyone.
MWC tourney predicted champ: San Diego State (#1 seed)
Dates: March 4-7
Location: Las Vegas, NV
2019 tourney champ: Utah State (#2 seed)
Fun fact: 6 different champs in past 6 years
Seeding: 7 of past 9 champs were top-2 seed
The Aztecs won each of their 1st 26 games before an inexplicable 3-PT loss to UNLV on February 22nd. The only good thing that came out of that loss was the removal of any pressure to have an undefeated season, so now they can get back to the business of trying to secure a #1 seed in the NCAA tourney. There is no doubt that Utah State needs to win this tourney a LOT more than San Diego State does, but in only his 3rd year as head coach Brian Dutcher has turned into a savant on both ends of the court, as his team is top-10 in the nation in both offensive AND defensive efficiency. JR PG Malachi Flynn did not win a single conference tourney game during his 1st 2 years at Washington State before transferring down the West Coast (including a scoreless 0-6 FG performance as a freshman vs. Colorado in 2017) so you just know that he has been waiting for his chance to prove that he can succeed in March.
NEC predicted champ: St. Francis PA (#2 seed)
Dates: March 4-10
Location: Campus sites
2019 tourney champ: Fairleigh Dickinson (#2 seed)
Fun fact: only 4 champs in past 12 years are Fairleigh Dickinson/Long Island/Mount St. Mary’s/Robert Morris
Seeding: each of past 20 champs were top-4 seed
Newcomer Merrimack would be a fun pick but they are (sadly) ineligible to participate. History tells us to pick a top-4 seed who has been 1 of the only 4 champs during the past 12 years, which leaves us with Long Island or Robert Morris. However, the Colonials lost to Fairleigh Dickinson TWICE in 9 days during February and the Sharks have lost 8 of 13 to remain clinging to the #4 seed by a thread. As much as I want to pick my fellow Penn alum Andy Toole (who is finishing his 10th year as head coach of the Colonials) I will take the easy way out and pick the hottest team. St. Francis PA lost 3 in a row in late-January but then won 8 in a row before losing the regular season finale in Moon Township. Coach Rob Krimmel has spent 8 years as head coach in Loretto and it has taken him that long to finally put together a 20-win season. SR SG Isaiah Blackmon missed the 1st game of the aforementioned 3-game losing streak after being suspended due to a post-game fight but has shown his maturity ever since with 22 PPG/38-87 3PM. It sounds like a berth in the NCAA tourney would make a nice birthday gift for a guy like Blackmon who turns 24 the day after the semifinals!
OVC predicted champ: Belmont (#1 seed)
Dates: March 4-7
Location: Evansville, IN
2019 tourney champ: Murray State (#2 seed)
Fun fact: 5 different champs in past 6 years
Seeding: only 2 of past 6 champs were top-2 seed
Remember when this conference had a quartet of 22+ win teams last year? Me either! Murray State won this tourney last year and has been good this year…but Ja Morant is only walking through that door if there is a ceremony to retire his jersey. Austin Peay started conference play 10-0 and has the league’s best player in Terry Taylor but dropped 4 road games in February to demonstrate that they are a home-court hero. The Bruins started January with an inexplicable 10-PT home loss to SIU-Edwardsville and dropped back-to-back road games in Murray and Clarksville in late-January but have been a perfect 10-0 since that rocky start. Rick Byrd is also not walking through that door but his replacement Casey Alexander has followed up a 29-win season at Lipscomb with a 24-wins-and counting season in Nashville. Belmont is great in the paint (57.2 2P% is #4 in the nation) and 6’11” C Nick Muszynski has bounced back from a scoreless 0-3 FG outing at Eastern Kentucky on February 22nd with 42 PTS in 47 minutes during his final 2 regular season games.
Patriot predicted champ: Army (#4 seed)
Dates: March 3-11
Location: Campus sites
2019 tourney champ: Colgate (#1 seed)
Fun fact: Bucknell has been in title game in 6 of past 9 years (4 wins)
Seeding: each of past 3 champs were #1 seed
This is 1 of the few tourneys where you ARE supposed to pick the top seed to go all the way, and it would be easy for me to pick my fellow Penn alum Matt Langel (who is finishing his 9th year as head coach of the Raiders). Unfortunately, even though the only thing better than the play “Hamilton” is the home cooking that Colgate will get while playing each of its postseason games in the city of Hamilton as the higher seed, the defending tourney champs got swept by Lafayette during January. While it appears that Coach Fran O’Hanlon has figured out how to solve a problem like the Raiders, there is no WAY he is doing it a 3rd time after losing Justin Jaworski to a torn ACL in February. Coach Jimmy Allen won exactly 13 games during each of his 1st 3 years at West Point but perhaps finally having a winning record of 15-14 will turn his luck around. If that does not work, he can always bring in the Funk (SR PG Tommy Funk) and order 6’9” big man Matt Wilson to bring in some Noise.
SoCon predicted champ: East Tennessee State (#1 seed)
Dates: March 4-9
Location: Asheville, NC
2019 tourney champ: Wofford (#1 seed)
Fun fact: only 4 champs over past 23 years who are still in this conference are Chattanooga/East Tennessee State/UNC Greensboro/Wofford
Seeding: each of past 30 champs were top-3 seed
History says that the winner will be 1 of the 4 champs from the past 23 years who are a top-3 seed, leaving us with either East Tennessee State or UNC Greensboro. Since the Spartans were swept by the Buccaneers earlier this year the smart money is on ETSU. It also helps that they are 27-4 and have a long memory after a single-digit loss to eventual tourney champ Wofford in the semifinals last March. I thought that this team might fall apart after losing SR big man Jeromy Rodriguez to a foot injury in early-January. Not only did they go 12-1 without him, he finally made his triumphant return to the court last Wednesday an helped his team eke out a pair of single-digit wins to finish the regular season. Coach Steve Forbes decided to insert SR Tray Boyd into the starting lineup after a loss to Mercer to finish January, and it has worked to perfection as the team has gone 9-0 since then.
Summit predicted champ: South Dakota State (#2 seed)
Dates: March 7-10
Location: Sioux Falls, SD
2019 tourney champ: North Dakota State (#4 seed)
Fun fact: South Dakota State has been in title game in 6 of past 8 years (5 wins and a 1-PT loss to North Dakota State)
Seeding: 2 of past 3 champs were #4 seed
North Dakota State won it last year and had a 5-PT OT win in Fargo last Thursday…but the fact remains that South Dakota State has owned this tourney for most of the past decade and will have plenty of fans in attendance in Sioux Falls. The Jackrabbits kick butt in the paint: their 57.4 2P% is #2 in the nation. The X-factor is 2019 NJCAA national POY Douglas Wilson, who missed the regular season finale with a lower leg injury: if he remains in a lot of pain, then a spot in the NCAA tourney his team will not regain. If not, 1st year coach Eric Henderson only has 1 SR in the rotation so he will probably just win it next year instead.
Sun Belt predicted champ: Texas State (#2 seed…probably)
Dates: March 7-15
Location: Campus sites and New Orleans, LA
2019 tourney champ: Georgia State (#1 seed)
Fun fact: Georgia State has won 3 titles in past 5 years
Seeding: 8 of past 10 champs were not #1 seed
Little Rock started conference play 12-2 and looked like the far-and-away favorite…until they lost back-to-back road games in San Marcos and Arlington in mid-February for a flag that looks as red as a bouquet of Valentine’s Day roses. In contrast, the Bobcats started conference play 1-4 but have won 12 of 14 since then. Coach Danny Kaspar had losing seasons during 4 of his 1st 5 years at Texas State but thanks to a 2-PT 3-OT win at Texas-Arlington last Friday he has now won 20+ games in consecutive seasons. SR SG Nijal Pearson missed a game at Appalachian State last month (a 3-PT road loss) due to the birth of his child but in the 5 games since then the proud papa has averaged 21 PPG/2 SPG. With a pair of single-digit road losses at Baylor/Houston on their non-conference resume, it is not a stretch to say this this is 1 of the better teams in the Lone Star State.
WCC predicted champ: Gonzaga (#1 seed)
Dates: March 7-12
Location: Las Vegas, NV
2019 tourney champ: St. Mary’s (#2 seed)
Fun fact: Gonzaga has won 16 titles in past 22 years and finished 2nd each of the other 6 times
Seeding: each of past 11 champs were top-2 seed
Last March St. Mary’s showed that the Zags were mortal and last month BYU showed that there is more than 1 tourney-caliber team in this conference. That is fine and dandy, but Coach Mark Few’s dominance of this conference since taking over in Spokane 2 decades ago remains almost incomprehensible: 20 straight NCAA tourney appearances, 18 regular season titles, 15 conference tourney titles, and a 13-time conference COY. The Bulldogs have lost exactly 4 regular season/postseason conference games during the past 4 YEARS so the smart money in Vegas is not on the rest of the field. SR PF Killian Tillie missed 9 games this season but has been scoring in bunches during February with 17 PPG in 5 games.