HoopsHD continues the greatest month of the year with Part 2 of its preview of every single conference tourney in the nation. See below for Jon Teitel’s predictions for the 18 conference tourneys getting underway this week, and if you want to check his picks for the 14 other conference tourneys that started last week you can find them at: https://hoopshd.com/2020/03/02/conference-tourney-previews-part-1-of-2-5
AAC tourney predicted champ: Houston (#2 seed)
Dates: March 12-15
Location: Fort Worth, TX
2019 tourney champ: Cincinnati (#2 seed)
Fun fact: 4 different champs in 6 years that tourney has existed
Seeding: 5 of past 6 champs were top-2 seed
Tulsa deserves a lot of credit, including its 2-PT win over Houston on January 11th, but after getting destroyed by 33 PTS in the rematch on the road on February 19th I am not yet a believer. The bad news for the Cougars is that they lost 5 games in conference play, but the good news is that all 5 were on the road and the only 1 in the state of Texas was by a single PT in OT at SMU. Coach Kelvin Sampson led his team to the Sweet 16 last year and is just as balanced this year with an offensive and defensive efficiency that are each top-25 in the nation. They only start 1 senior but have 1 of the best 6th men in the country in FR SG Caleb Mills. If their fans are willing to drive 4 hours north to Fort Worth and Dejon Jarreau stops biting opponents they should be okay.
A-10 tourney predicted champ: Dayton (#1 seed)
Dates: March 11-15
Location: Brooklyn, NY
2019 tourney champ: St. Louis (#6 seed)
Fun fact: 8 different champs in past 10 years
Seeding: each of past 6 champs were #3-6 seed
This tourney has not been kind to #1 seeds but in this instance Dayton is so far above the rest of the pack that it should be able to rewrite history. The Flyers got a good taste for the postseason with 5 of their 1st 11 games at neutral sites, then have not taken their foot off the pedal ever since then by winning 20 in a row to finish the regular season. Coach Anthony Grant’s squad did not even win a single conference tourney game last March but thanks to SO PF Obi Toppin playing like an All-American they are unstoppable in the paint (62.3 2P% is #1 in the nation). Their only 2 losses were in OT by a combined 8 PTS at neutral sites before Christmas against a pair of NCAA tourney teams in Kansas/Colorado so this team barely even remembers what it feels like to lose a game.
ACC tourney predicted champ: Virginia (#2 seed)
Dates: March 10-14
Location: Greensboro, NC
2019 tourney champ: Duke (#3 seed)
Fun fact: 6 different champs in past 8 years (after only Duke/North Carolina for previous 7 years)
Seeding: 14 of past 15 champs were top-3 seed
Ancient history says that a top-3 seed will win this tourney, and recent history shows that Florida State/Louisville are each stumbling toward the finish line. Duke might get some home cooking in Greensboro but the defending tourney champ showed their home-court heroism by losing 3 straight road games in February. In contrast, the Cavaliers started 9-1, then struggled in the middle of the season before winning 11 of their final 12. Hiring Coach Tony Bennett in 2009 was probably the best thing that ever happened to this program, but the historic upset at the hands of UMBC 2 Marches ago might be a close 2nd, as the team rebounded to win 32 of its 40 games vs. ACC opponents since then thanks to the #1 defensive efficiency in the nation.
Big 12 tourney predicted champ: Kansas (#1 seed)
Dates: March 11-14
Location: Kansas City, MO
2019 tourney champ: Iowa State (#5 seed)
Fun fact: only 5 champs ever are Iowa State/Kansas/Missouri/Oklahoma/Oklahoma State
Seeding: 20 of 23 all-time champs were top-3 seed
Baylor appeared ready to finally win this tournament when they were 24-1 in mid-February but backed into March by losing 3 of their final 5. I assumed that Kansas would receive some bad karma after their ugly fight with Kansas State on January 21st but the Jayhawks won each of their final 13 to assume their usual place atop the Big 12 standings. This tourney remains in Kansas City for the 11th straight March, which gives Coach Bill Self’s team a semi-home-court advantage just 45 miles east of the Phog. As long as Udoka Azubuike is healthy and does not have to take any clutch-time FTs (he is shooting 44.1 FT%), Kansas should be able to avenge their title game loss to Iowa State last March and become the #1 overall seed for the NCAA tourney.
Big East tourney predicted champ: Providence (#4 seed)
Dates: March 11-14
Location: New York, NY
2019 tourney champ: Villanova (#1 seed)
Fun fact: Villanova has been in title game each of past 5 years (4 wins and 2-PT loss to Seton Hall)
Seeding: 8 of past 10 champs were not #1 seed
Villanova coach Jay Wright has won 14 of his past 15 games in this tourney so it is probably unwise to pick against him. However, after watching the Wildcats defeat an injury-depleted Georgetown team by a single point last Saturday in person I must admit that a little doubt has crept in. In contrast, a Providence team that lost to my Quakers AT HOME in November has turned its entire season around by winning each of its final 6 games including vs. Seton Hall at home and on the road at Villanova. Coach Ed Cooley only has 1 freshman in his rotation so expect his experienced crew to keep frying everyone at MSG.
Big Sky tourney predicted champ: Eastern Washington (#1 seed)
Dates: March 9-14
Location: Boise, ID
2019 tourney champ: Montana (#1 seed)
Fun fact: Montana has been in title game 8 times in past 10 years (5 wins and 3 losses by combined 12 PTS)
Seeding: 8 of past 9 champs were #1 seed
Montana has owned this tourney for the past decade, but since they got swept by Northern Colorado and since Northern Colorado got swept by Eastern Washington I think the Eagles will finally soar. It also helps that #1 seeds usually win this tourney. Coach Shantay Legans has to be feeling confident after winning 14 of his final 16 games. 6’8” Aussie import Mason Peatling is shooting 64.7 FG% and is #2 on the team in APG so even if you guard him down under he can still pass the ball out back.
Big 10 tourney predicted champ: Michigan State (#2 seed)
Dates: March 11-15
Location: Indianapolis, IN
2019 tourney champ: Michigan State (#1 seed)
Fun fact: Michigan State has been in title game 5 times in past 8 years (4 wins and an OT loss)
Seeding: 5 of past 7 champs were not #1 seed
Welcome back to the Tom Izzo Invitational, as the Spartans have won this tourney 4 times in the past 8 years. Michigan State had a rough start to February by losing 4 of 5 (including 2 at home) but got back on track with 5 straight wins to finish the regular season. Cassius Winston is the best SR PG in the country, and now that FR SG Rocket Watts is averaging 17 PPG in his last 3 games he can take a little pressure of his backcourt mate. Wisconsin would also be a smart pick due to their 8-game winning streak but the fact that they lost each of their 4 games before that streak looks like a big red flag.
Big West tourney predicted champ: UC-Irvine (#1 seed)
Dates: March 12-14
Location: Anaheim, CA
2019 tourney champ: UC-Irvine (#1 seed)
Fun fact: 8 different champs in past 9 years
Seeding: 5 of past 7 champs were not #1 seed
You cannot just pick #1 seeds across the board, but when the regular season champ finishes 3 games clear of everyone else in the league then do not fix what is not broken. The Anteaters were actually much better last year while going 31-6 yet again have 1 of the best interior defenses in the nation (40.8 2P% allowed is #2 in D-1). Coach Russell Turner should have plenty of fans in attendance if they join him for the easy 15-mile drive north to the tourney in Anaheim, but if not then his team will still feel confident away from home due to their experience with a starting 5 that features 4 seniors/1 junior. If they need toughness then they can turn to FR G Jeron Artest, whose father Ron (aka Metta World Peace) remains 1 of the toughest players in the history of the sport.
C-USA tourney predicted champ: Western Kentucky (#2 seed)
Dates: March 11-14
Location: Frisco, TX
2019 tourney champ: Old Dominion (#1 seed)
Fun fact: 6 different champs in past 7 years
Seeding: 6 of past 8 champs were top-2 seed
The bad news for WKU coach Rick Stansbury is that his best player (Charles Bassey) has not played in 3 months due to a season-ending injury. The good news is that not only was his team able to go 13-5 in conference play, but they swept Louisiana Tech and were an OT road loss away from also sweeping North Texas. High seeds do very well in this tourney, and if the Hilltoppers go down to the wire then they will probably come out on top because their 78.7 FT% is #7 in the country. I am a little nervous for any team with a FR PG (Jordan Rawls) but he has a bunch of junior/senior starters around him who will lead by example.
Ivy tourney predicted champ: Harvard (#2 seed)
Dates: March 14-15
Location: Cambridge, MA
2019 tourney champ: Yale (#2 seed)
Fun fact: 3 different champs in past 3 years
Seeding: each of 3 all-time champs were top-2 seed
I would like Penn’s chances better if they were still playing this tourney in the Palestra, but now that it rotates through 8 different cities I think Harvard will use its home-court advantage, well, to its advantage. Even though the Quakers SHOULD have swept Yale last month before an all-time choke job on February 28th, Yale is good enough as the defending champ to make it back to the title game. The Harvard-Princeton 2 vs. 3 game could be the best of the entire tourney, as each team had a 1-PT home win vs. the other team last month. Harvard lost 3 of 4 starting in late-January but bounced back to win 7 of their final 8. They also swept Yale this year and should see their home fans storming their home court next Sunday. If 2018 Ivy POY Seth Towns had not missed the past TWO years due to a knee injury (and then entered the transfer portal in January), this team would have a legitimate shot of winning not just the Ivy tourney but also an NCAA tourney game.
MAAC tourney predicted champ: Siena (#1 seed)
Dates: March 10-14
Location: Atlantic City, NJ
2019 tourney champ: Iona (#1 seed)
Fun fact: Iona has been in title game each of past 7 years (5 wins and 2 losses to Manhattan by combined 13 PTS)
Seeding: 8 of past 9 champs were 2-4 seed
For the 1st time in a while you should NOT go ahead and advance Iona to the title game, especially after finishing with their worst record since former coach Jeff Ruland went 2-28 in 2007. This tourney has not been kind to #1 seeds but since stumbling out of the conference blocks with a 3-4 record they have righted the ship by winning 12 of their last 13. I usually do not like 1st year coaches but Carm Maciariello has got the job done with a bunch of interchangeable pieces in a starting lineup where everyone stands 6’4”-6’8”. Unless Chad puts the jinx on them in Atlantic City, I would gamble that there is a good chance that the Saints will go marching in…to the NCAA tourney.
MAC tourney predicted champ: Akron (#1 seed)
Dates: March 9-14
Location: Campus sites and Cleveland, OH
2019 tourney champ: Buffalo (#1 seed)
Fun fact: Buffalo has won tourney in 4 of past 5 years
Seeding: 7 of past 8 champs were top-3 seed
For the 1st time in a while you should NOT go ahead and pick Buffalo to win it all, as another 27+ win season is not in the cards now that Nate Oats is not on their sideline. As impressive as Bowling Green’s 18-PT victory over Akron was on February 25th, their unimpressive 3-game losing streak to end the season simply cannot be avoided. Coach John Groce toughened up his team in non-conference play with losses at West Virginia and Louisville by 10 PTS or less, and they are zipping right along having won 8 of their last 9. 5’8” JR PG Loren Cristian Jackson had a poor 9-PT/2-9 FG effort in a 1-PT home win over Eastern Michigan to start February, then had an offensive explosion by scoring 28+ PTS in 4 of his next 6 games. This team is hungry to win, which is to be expected when your 2nd-best player is named Tyler CHEESE!
MEAC tourney predicted champ: NC Central (#1 seed)
Dates: March 10-14
Location: Norfolk, VA
2019 tourney champ: NC Central (#3 seed)
Fun fact: only 2 champs in past 6 years are Hampton/NC Central
Seeding: 6 of past 9 champs were not #1 seed
The Eagles are the only team in the past 6 years who have won this tourney and are still in this conference (Hampton left in 2018) so they make the most sense. Coach LeVelle Moton has only had 1 losing season during his 9 years in the MEAC so if there is anyone who knows how to beat other teams in this tourney it is him. The Eagles were terrible in non-conference play with only 1 win vs. a D-1 team (a 9-PT home win over a USC Upstate team that went on to lose 20 games), but turned things around in conference play by winning 10 of their final 11. They are bottom-20 in the nation in FT shooting at 64.4% but as long as they can avoid a close game they should emerge victorious. If not then they will have the entire offseason to wonder what could have been had Randy Miller not been sidelined since early-December.
Pac-12 predicted champ: Oregon (#1 seed)
Dates: March 11-14
Location: Las Vegas, NV
2019 tourney champ: Oregon (#6 seed)
Fun fact: only 2 champs in past 5 years are Arizona/Oregon
Seeding: 5 of past 6 champs were top-2 seed
If you think I am picking Arizona you are crazy, which means Oregon is the pick. The Ducks lost 3 of 5 to start February but then won 4 in a row to clinch the #1 seed. SR PG Payton Pritchard is playing like an All-American: I watched him score 38 PTS in 45 minutes in an OT win in Tucson on February 22nd and he was simply unstoppable. Oregon has lived and died by the 3 this year, but it has mostly been living because their 39.6 3P% is #2 in the nation. Coach Dana Altman won this tourney last year as the #6 seed so just imagine what he will do now that he has the best team in the conference!
SEC predicted champ: Kentucky (#1 seed)
Dates: March 11-15
Location: Nashville, TN
2019 tourney champ: Auburn (#5 seed)
Fun fact: Kentucky has been in 8 of past 10 title games (6 wins and 2 losses by combined 8 PTS)
Seeding: 6 of past 9 champs were not #1 seed
Kentucky hopes to avoid Tennessee because the Vols just upset them in Lexington last Tuesday and could feel very confident if there is a rematch in Nashville this week. I am so used to seeing a bunch of young Kentucky 1-and-done players who cannot make FTs that it is incomprehensible that their 79.7 FT% is #2 in the country. The X-factor is obviously PG Ashton Hagans, who missed the season finale at Florida due to personal reasons, but since the Wildcats won that game on the road without him I guess it is not as much of a dagger as some thought. If you do not think that Big Blue Nation will win it all then at least put them in the title game because they are there WAY more often than not.
Southland predicted champ: Stephen F. Austin (#1 seed)
Dates: March 11-15
Location: Katy, TX
2019 tourney champ: Abilene Christian (#2 seed)
Fun fact: Stephen F. Austin has won tourney in 4 of past 6 years
Seeding: each of past 8 champs were top-3 seed
When the Lumberjacks had a 2-PT OT win at Cameron Indoor Stadium on November 26th it seemed like 1 of the biggest upsets in college basketball history. Since that game Duke has gone 19-5…and SFA has gone 23-2! Coach Kyle Keller’s team is top-25 in the nation with 37.4 3P% and have won 21 of 22 with the only loss coming by a single PT to Texas A&M Corpus-Christi (which is the REAL upset of the season!). SR F Kevon Harris has been a great veteran leader but if he duplicates his 8-PT/2-9 FG performance vs. Sam Houston State last Saturday then this team could be vulnerable.
SWAC predicted champ: Southern (#2 seed)
Dates: March 10-14
Location: Campus sites and Birmingham, AL
2019 tourney champ: Prairie View (#1 seed)
Fun fact: only 3 champs in past 7 years are Prairie View/Southern/Texas Southern
Seeding: 5 of past 8 champs were #1 seed
This is why you wait until the end of the season to make your pick: Prairie View was sitting at 14-2 in conference play just a few days ago before a pair of 9-PT road losses put quite a damper on their expectations. On the other hand, you might have given up on Southern after they started the season 3-13 but after winning 13 of their final 15 they have all the momentum in the world (including an OT win over the Panthers in the regular season finale last Saturday). Coach Sean Woods lost 25 games last year but thanks to a veteran starting 5 of 3 juniors/2 seniors it looks like they learned a lot from last year’s mistakes.
WAC predicted champ: New Mexico State (#1 seed)
Dates: March 11-14
Location: Las Vegas, NV
2019 tourney champ: New Mexico State (#1 seed)
Fun fact: New Mexico State has been in 11 of past 13 title games (9 wins and 2 losses by combined 8 PTS)
Seeding: each of past 6 champs were top-2 seed
You should spend your time/energy focusing on the difficult conference tourney picks: this is not 1 of them. New Mexico State gets to the title game almost every single year and then wins it a majority of the time: look it up. In his 3 years as head coach in Las Cruces, Coach Chris Jans has won 83 of his 100 games including a ridiculous 49 of 52 vs. conference foes. He had 8 different players start at least 12 games this year so even if 1-2 of his guys has an off-night he still has plenty of other experienced players to rely upon.