News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Saturday, Feb 12

NEWS AND NOTES:

-Xavier snapped a two game losing streak with a big home win over UConn 74-68.  They pretty much maintained a lead all throughout, but UConn kept it within reach the whole way.

-Utah State looked to be getting closer to the bubble, but we won’t be saying that anymore.  They lost at home to Nevada 85-72, and that one is going to sting.

-Iona lost their second straight game as they fell at Siena 70-64, and this one is going to sting a whole lot worse.  I don’t want to say that Iona has not shot at an at-large if they lose in the conference tournament, but I’d say their chances are less than 50/50.

-Saint Louis, who appeared to be building a resume and making a case for themselves, also suffered a home loss to Saint Bonaventure 68-61.  That one is going to hurt too.

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:

-TEXAS A&M AT AUBURN (SEC).  Auburn is looking to bounce back from their loss at Arkansas earlier this week.  This is a winnable home game against a TAMU team that’s outside the bubble, and will need a big win like this (as unlikely as that is) just to get into the discussion.

-TEXAS AT BAYLOR (Big 12).  Texas seems to be getting better as the year goes on and is climbing the seedlist, while Baylor has shown themselves to be human after all at times.  There is some heat to this series, but Baylor still appears to be the better team and they’re at home.  If Texas somehow pulls the upset, they won’t just climb the seedlist, they’ll shoot up it.

-CREIGHTON AT GEORGETOWN (Big East).  Creighton has been in a bit of a slump recently and has fallen down the seedlist.  They’ll really be drowning in quicksand if they can’t pick this one up on the road.

-ARKANSAS AT ALABAMA (SEC).  When you look at their resume, Alabama’s good is really good, but their bad also makes you scratch your head.  They have been consistently tough at home, though.  Arkansas is looking a lot better and is coming off their biggest (and most feelgood) win in a long time.  Following it up with a road win today would REALLY boost their profile, but that’s much easier said than done.

-OKLAHOMA AT KANSAS (Big 12).  Oklahoma had a big win earlier this week, but that was at home against Texas Tech.  Winning at Kansas is an entirely different task.  The Sooners still appear to be hovering around the bubble, so if they were to win it goes without saying that it would help their cause.

-SETON HALL AT VILLANOVA (Big East).  Seton Hall has been playing well, and is coming off a nice win against Xavier.  Winning on the road against a probable protected seed is going to require a different level of play, though.

-RUTGERS AT WISCONSIN (Big Ten).  So Rutgers has managed some really big wins this year, but they’ve all been at home.  They’re still outside the bubble, but they are at least in a position to where they can reach the bubble.  A win in a game like this completely changes the complexion of their resume.  But, having said that, winning a game like this is damn near impossible.  Wisconsin is arguably the best team in the Big Ten, and arguably could end up as high as the #2 line.

-FLORIDA STATE AT NORTH CAROLINA (ACC).  North Carolina looks like they are straddling the bubble.  They’ve avoided bad losses, and they need to continue to do that, but that’s all they’ve done.  That being said, they need to avoid a loss in this one today.

-WEST VIRGINIA AT OKLAHOMA STATE (Big 12).  WVU just ended a seven game losing streak, but they did so in impressive fashion and if you look at some of the games they lost during that streak they actually played well.  A win today gets them one step closer to being solidly back in the discussion for a bid.

-DAVIDSON AT RHODE ISLAND (Atlantic Ten).  Davidson has a respectable resume and has looked solid on the court most of the time.  This isn’t the easiest road game to win, but it’s the kind of win that a tournament caliber team should be able to get.

-MIAMI FL AT WAKE FOREST (ACC).  Wake is in the rankings and appears to be climbing the seedlist and on the committee’s radar, but their resume still looks flimsy (at best) and they still have a lot of work to do.  Miami FL has work to do as well, so both are coming into this one inside the bubble, but very close to it, and they should both have a sense of urgency.

-MEMPHIS AT HOUSTON (American).  Houston suffered their first loss in a long time earlier this week, but it won’t really even qualify as much of a setback so long as they keep blowing through the league.  They should be able to rebound and pick up this one at home.

-INDIANA AT MICHIGAN STATE (Big Ten).  I’ve been critical of how Indiana’s resume needs more road wins and more quality wins.  Well, if they win this one, my criticism will stop.  That’s easier said than done, though.  Michigan State has fallen somewhat, but they are still very much in the running for a protected seed and should hold serve at home.

-FLORIDA AT KENTUCKY (SEC).  I think Florida is squarely on the bubble, and that Kentucky is good enough to end up with a #1 seed (and arguably should be there already).

-TCU AT TEXAS TECH (Big 12).  TCU has been improving and climbing the seedlist as the season has gone on, but they’ve got a huge chore today.  Texas Tech has proven to be good enough at home to beat anyone, so this would be massive upset and resume boost if TCU were to pull it off.

-MURRAY STATE AT MOREHEAD STATE (Ohio Valley).  Murray has cracked the rankings and will be safely inside the bubble so long as they continue to blow through the OVC.  They may be tested today as Morehead State is unbeaten at home, but it’s still the kind of game that an at-large caliber team should be able to win.

-CALIFORNIA AT OREGON (Pac 12).  Oregon is inside the bubble and should stay there so long as they hold serve.  That would certainly mean not losing at home to Cal.

-NEW MEXICO STATE AT UTAH VALLEY (WAC).  New Mexico State has an outside shot (at best) for an at-large bid, but they do have a shot.  This would be a tough road win for them as well.

-KANSAS STATE AT IOWA STATE (Big 12).  Iowa State has a solid resume aside from being just 3-8 in Big 12 play.  Having said that, their schedule was extremely front-loaded.  I won’t go so far to say it’s easy the rest of the way, but it’s nowhere near as tough as what it’s been.  This is a winnable game, and they need to win it.

-VCU AT GEORGE MASON (Atlantic Ten).  VCU can get onto the bubble, and perhaps even inside of it, with a strong finish.

-MARQUETTE AT BUTLER (Big East).  I like this Marquette team, I think they can end up as a protected seed, and this is a winnable road game that they should pick up.

-DUKE AT BOSTON COLLEGE (ACC).  Duke could arguably end up as a #1 seed, but right now they’ve fallen off our #1 line.  They’re still a solid protected seed and should be able to win this one on the road today.

-ARIZONA AT WASHINGTON (Pac 12).  Arizona is in the hunt for a #1 seed, and our committee actually gave them one last night.  They probably need to win out in order to get it, though.  They certainly can’t lose this one.

-OHIO STATE AT MICHIGAN (Big Ten).  Michigan is coming off a blowout win against Purdue, which is a level they have seldom played at this season.  Ohio State is coming off a loss at Rutgers and is looking to rebound.  Even if Michigan pulls this off and caps off a huge week, I still think they’ll have work to do as far as making the field.  As for Ohio State, a few more road wins would make their resume look better, and getting one against their rivals would probably feel pretty good.

-VANDERBILT AT TENNESSEE (SEC).  Tennessee shouldn’t have too much trouble holding serve in this one.  Vanderbilt is noticeably better this year, but they’ve still got a ways to go.

-SMU AT EAST CAROLINA (American).  SMU just had a huge win against Houston, but if they want any shot at making the field they can’t follow that up with a letdown against ECU.  They pretty much need to blow through the rest of their schedule.

-SAN FRANCISCO AT SANTA CLARA (West Coast).  This is a hugely important game for both teams.  Santa Clara hasn’t been inside the bubble all year, but given how they’ve been playing lately I think they’ve actually got a shot to get there if they can finish strong.  That would mean winning today against a San Francisco team that is inside the bubble, but who needs a few more big wins in order to stay there.

-DEPAUL AT PROVIDENCE (Big East).  Providence continues to build up one of the most impressive resumes in the country, at least as far as the quality of their wins.  They shouldn’t have too much trouble holding serve in this one.

-NOTRE DAME AT CLEMSON (ACC).  The Irish are inside our bubble, but barely.  This wouldn’t be a super high caliber road win as Clemson is nowhere near making the field, but it would at least be a decent caliber road win.  A loss would actually set the Irish back a bit.

-MISSISSIPPI STATE AT LSU (SEC).  Mississippi State has no road wins, and if they could just pick up a few they’d probably be in the discussion for a bid.  LSU is coming out of a tailspin and this is a winnable game for them to help them get back on track.

-AIR FORCE AT SAN DIEGO STATE (Mountain West).  San Diego State is squarely on our bubble and cannot afford to lose this one.

-WYOMING AT SAN JOSE STATE (Mountain West).  Wyoming has been on a rampage lately, and I expect that to continue tonight as they take on the superbly coached, but under-talented, San Jose State team.

-SAINT MARY’S AT GONZAGA (West Coast).  Gonzaga is set to move up to the #1 ranking if they can win this game, and remain on pace to earn a #1 seed.  Saint Mary’s has been playing really well lately, but beating a team that is about to go to #1 on the road would take an effort unlike any we’ve seen from them (or perhaps anyone else in the country) so far this season.

-UCLA AT USC (Pac 12).  It’s a rivalry game between a UCLA team that is on pace to get a protected seed and a USC team that is severely lacking in quality wins.  Something is at stake both on and off paper for both these teams.

-BYU AT PEPPERDINE (West Coast).  BYU ended a four game losing streak the other night where they had really looked pathetic as they finally got a win against LMU.  In overtime.  Who, quite frankly, isn’t good at all.  This is a game that BYU cannot lose, but given how they’ve been playing lately it wouldn’t shock me at all if they did, and if they do, it could knock them all the way outside the bubble.

 

UNDER THE RADAR:

-LAFAYETTE AT LEHIGH (Patriot League).  These two teams are just 17 miles apart, and they’ve never met in the NCAA Tournament!

-NAVY AT ARMY (Patriot League).  Navy got off to a great start this season, but has hit a skid since PL play started.  A road win against their big rivals should give them some momentum.

-CHATTANOOGA AT FURMAN (SoCon).  Two of the better teams in the SoCon, and Chattanooga will be potentially dangerous in the Round of 64 if they can get that far.  This is a tough road game for them.

-THE CITADEL AT VMI (SoCon).  This is just a fun rivalry, and I wanted to highlight it.

-GRAMBLING AT TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC).  There is a logjam atop the SWAC standings, and these are two of the teams that are in it.

-BELMONT AT SEMO (Ohio Valley).  Belmont can play their way onto the bubble, and most likely play their way inside of it, if they win out, but anything short of that and they’ll most likely need to win the conference tournament.