Every week one of the Staff Members here at HoopsHD takes a shot at putting together a Bracket Projection (in addition to the weekly projections — in the Bracketology tab above — from Jon Teitel, who is one of the best at guessing the committee out there!). This week it is Chad’s turn, and below are his current predictions through all games of Sunday, February 20. After the field are his notes, followed by comments from others on the staff here. To the extent that any of those comments are not utter and complete praise for the perfection of this week’s bracket, Chad asks that you kindly ignore them and delete their author from all your social media accounts.
CHAD’S NOTES
— Auburn’s loss at Florida has made Gonzaga the clear #1 overall team on my seed list. In addition, Arizona has jumped up to #2 overall — the Wildcats’ only two losses were to protected seeds (teams on the top 4 seed lines). All three of Auburn’s losses were to teams below that level.
— In the Bracket Reveal/Preview show on Saturday, the actual NCAA Tournament Selection Committee placed Providence on the 4-seed line and I have followed suit. Their top quadrant wins are great, but you have to remember that they won at Wisconsin and at Connecticut in games where both their opponents were missing their top player. Plus, they looked horrible on Sunday at Butler and needed a near-miracle comeback to find a way to win in overtime. This was against a Butler team that was coming off a 37 point loss to St. John’s!
— I have Iowa State on my 7 line despite a 5-9 conference record. I honestly don’t care that they are 5-9 in the best conference inn the country. What I do care about is an amazing 8 Tier 1 wins, 5 of which are away from home, and no losses outside of the top two quadrants. A team with that type of resume has to be in the top half of the bracket!
— Sticking in the state of Iowa, I finally have the Hawkeyes in a position where they are no longer squarely “on the bubble” It is amazing what one really good road win (at Ohio State) can do for a team that had nothing good and nothing bad on its resume. Iowa landed on my 9 line this week.
— My 10 line is filled with teams I was not sure what else to do with. Davidson is the best team in the A-10 still, but has some puzzling losses. Boise State, Florida and Rutgers all have Quad 4 home losses, yet all have very good tops to their profiles. The Gators still have work to do, but beating Auburn, even if at home, has changed the entire complexion of their resume.
— The first of my two First Four games landed on the 11 line and the second on the 12 line, resulting in the strange but permissible result of both First Four game playing into the South Region (in fact with one of the 16 vs 16 games there as well, that is three First Four games heading to the South). SMU, off of their season sweep of Memphis, was my second to last team in. Michigan barely hung on to the final spot — though with suspensions likely after yesterday’s ugly post-game brawl, it may be difficult for the Wolverines to stay there.
— North Texas was ranked #47 on my seed list, in between SMU and Michigan. I love this UNT resume with their win at UAB this past weekend, and as long as they don’t suffer a bad loss the rest of the way, there is definitely a path to serious consideration for an at-large bid, should the Mean Green need one.
— #49 on my seed list (meaning below the First Four teams) was Loyola-Chicago. The Ramblers could still get an at-large bid, but the way they are playing right now, I am not convinced they will hear their names called on Selection Sunday if they do not win the MVC’s auto bid.
— My TOP FOUR TEAMS OUT were, in order: Belmont, Memphis, St Bonaventure and BYU. I also considered Kansas State, North Carolina, VCU, Virginia, Dayton, Oregon, Oklahoma, Colorado and Mississippi State. I really wanted to find a way to put Belmont in, but the Bruins will get their chance to prove themselves on Thursday when they go to Murray State. Keep an eye on the Bonnies as well — their NET may only be in the 80s, but they have won 5 in a row and do have neutral court wins against Boise State and Marquette. A path to an at-large bid still exists for them.
STAFF COMMENTS
FROM DAVID: Chad did a lot of things right here, but he got some things so disastrously wrong that it makes me question how much lead Chad has in his house.
-The omission of Kansas State is blatantly wrong. Everyone is quick to point out that they are just two games above .500 and that the committee typically doesn’t take teams with records that poor. Well, for this exercise, we aren’t trying to guess the committee anyway, but even if we were just a few years back the committee took a Vanderbilt team that was just three games above .500 and put them on the #9 line. THE #9 LINE!!!! That’s THREE LINES inside the bubble!!! Even with that record, they weren’t even on the bubble!! At 14-12 with wins at Texas, at Iowa State, at TCU, and a home win against Texas Tech, that is a much better top of the resume than pretty much everyone from the 7 line down other than Rutgers. Of their losses, only two happened against teams that were outside the bubble. Also very good. K State belongs in!!
-I don’t like saying Rutgers should be higher. It makes Chad feel too good about himself. In fact, the only reason I think Chad has Rutgers on his #10 line is to force me to say that Rutgers should be higher. Well…RUTGERS SHOULD BE HIGHER!! You know who would very much not like where Chad has Rutgers in his bracket?? USC AND KENTUCKY!!!!
-I don’t understand the Murray State love. I want to say that I absolutely feel they belong inside the bubble, but I don’t see how they should be in the top half of the bracket. What they’ve done is impressive, but not top half of the bracket impressive. Their last two games have been against teams that are nowhere near any sort of a postseason tournament, and they had to sweat out both of them. Winning at Belmont is a legit good win, but I don’t think it’s ‘top-half-of-the-bracket good.’ It’s DEFINITELY in-the-bracket-good, but not 8 seed good.
-I think I like North Texas better than Chad’s entire #11 line other than Miami FL, and would argue that they not only belong inside the bubble, but belong above the First Four. 8-0 in true road games is VERY impressive. UAB is 13-2 at home. It is hard to win there. North Texas did it. It’s not all that easy to win at Louisiana Tech either, and North Texas did it. In looking at their four losses, one was at Kansas (which you wouldn’t ding a protected seed for, so why ding a bubble team?), and the other was neutral against Miami FL who is (rightfully) inside the bubble. The only stinker is a home loss to Buffalo, and while that does smell kind of bad, the odor of that loss isn’t overpoweringly bad. I certainly think North Texas would beat Wake Forest and San Diego State if they were to play both those teams on equal terms.
-Notre Dame does not feel like a #9 seed. Chad has Notre Dame on his #9 line. The thing is…so do I. It doesn’t feel like that’s where they should be, but when I build a seedlist, that’s where they are. So…good job? I think?
FROM JOHN:
– Providence, while seeded where they ought to be, should NOT be discredited for winning at Wisconsin/UConn while they were shorthanded. As Jerry Palm has said on a prior podcast, that argument becomes invalid when they’re losing games at full strength to teams like Rutgers (i.e. Wisconsin) and Creighton (i.e. UConn). Falling behind at Butler by 19 is concerning, but at least they found a way to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. Give all the credit in the world to the Friars.
– About the only way a team like Marquette is getting a protected seed now is if they make it to the Big East title game and not lose any more regular season games (especially now that they get the easier portion with Butler, DePaul and St. John’s remaining).
– Wake Forest deserves better than a First Four slot. They checked off a much-needed box on Saturday with a win against a likely NCAA Tournament team in Notre Dame. Their resume is meh like Iowa, but they at least have the Virginia Tech road win which is still Quad 1 right now. Two Q1 wins plus no bad losses (i.e. Tiers 3 and 4) deserves more of a 10 seed, if not a 9 like Iowa. But at least the Hawkeyes doubled down with a much-needed road win at OSU. (I’m looking at you, Indiana – you can improve likewise)
– Regardless of Michigan losing their tempers over Juwan Howard apparently not liking Culver’s, I would not have had them in the field (especially with K-State on the outside looking in) just yet. They’ve got 5 games remaining – 4 of them are at home along with a road finale at Ohio State. 3 would be the bare minimum for them to win to feel like they have a shot, and one of those wins better be at OSU.
– While a case could be made for Florida’s inclusion, they better win both of their remaining road games (at Vandy and at Georgia) and at least one home game against either Arkansas or Kentucky. An early loss in the SEC Tournament is not advisable. (Oh, and since we haven’t mentioned them much of late, we need to remind our readers just how atrocious their home loss to Texas Southern was).
– Xavier is dropping like a stone and might be a textbook example of how the Committee will treat the current injury to Nate Johnson. He missed the last two games where Xavier lost at home to St. John’s and at UConn last Saturday. If he comes back and Xavier resumes their winning ways, they might get a little break from the Committee assuming they don’t wet themselves a third time. If he doesn’t come back, then the Musketeers at a minimum need to beat Seton Hall, St. John’s, Georgetown and their first-round opponent in the Big East Tournament to feel safe. Winning at Providence on Wednesday can also absolve a lot of sins.