The best week of the year is finally here! This is the time when we ponder the impact of McDonald’s All-Americans, the importance of having a veteran coach, and exactly how many different “Wildcats” can make the Final 4. For those of you who need some last-minute bracket advice grounded in historical facts/trends, please see below for our Sweetest 16 Suggestions. For the rest of you, enjoy the Madness!!
TIP #1: No team that lost its opening game in its conference tournament has ever gone on to win the NCAA title that same year.
STRATEGY: The extra few days of rest have not proven helpful in the past so take a long hard look at Baylor (lost to Iowa State in the Big 12 tourney quarterfinals)/Kansas State (lost to TCU in the Big 12 tourney quarterfinals) before penciling them in as your champ.
TIP #2: Since 1979 only 3 national champions did not have a McDonald’s All-American on their roster (2002 Maryland/2014 UConn/2021 Baylor).
STRATEGY: A coach who cannot recruit the best high school players usually fails to win it all so beware of picking Arizona/Purdue to go all the way.
TIP #3: The last coach to win a title in his very 1st year as coach at a school was Tubby Smith at Kentucky in 1998.
STRATEGY: History is not on the side of Kansas State coach Jerome Tang/Texas coach Rodney Terry.
TIP #4: Since UNLV from the Big West won it all in 1990, 30 of the past 31 champs have come from a power-conference (except for UConn from the AAC in 2014): ACC (11), SEC (6), Big East (7), Big 12 (3), Pac-12 (2), Big 10 (1).
STRATEGY: You might want to think twice before picking anyone from the MWC/WCC to win it all.
TIP #5: Only 3 coaches with 4 or fewer prior tournament appearances have won the title since 1985 (Steve Fisher/Tom Izzo/Kevin Ollie).
STRATEGY: Teams like Duke (Jon Scheyer has 0 prior tourney appearances)/San Diego State (Brian Dutcher has 3 prior tourney appearances) might need a little more seasoning before they can win it all.
TIP #6: Each champ since 2002 had a strength of schedule that was among the top-75 in the nation.
STRATEGY: You have to play the best to learn how to beat the best you might want to stay away from FAU (SOS: 106)/VCU (SOS: 99).
TIP #7: There are 5 active coaches who have won at least 2/3 of their NCAA tournament games (minimum 5 wins).
STRATEGY: Do not expect Bill Self of Kansas (72.4%)/Tom Izzo of Michigan State (69.7%) to be catching an early flight home.
TIP #8: There are 6 schools who have won at least 85% of their games in the round of 64 (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Auburn (10-1)/Kansas (36-2) are near-automatic in their opening games.
TIP #9: There are 8 schools who have won at least 75% of their games in the round of 32 (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Arizona (19-4) is looking good vs. the Missouri-Utah State winner if they can win their 1st round game, and if not then Kentucky (28-7) is not a bad alternative.
TIP #10: There are 6 schools who have won at least 75% of their Sweet 16 games (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Kentucky (34-11) has played great in their Sweet 16 games so Marquette should beware.
TIP #11: There are 10 schools who have won at least 70% of their Elite 8 games (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Keep an eye on some of the best seeds in case either Houston (6-1)/UCLA (19-4) can make it to the 2nd Sunday.
TIP #12: There are 9 schools who have won at least 60% of their Final 4 games (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Connecticut is 4-1 in the Final 4 so if you pick them to survive the West Region then you might want to pick them to get all the way to the title game.
TIP #13: There are 10 schools who have won at least 2/3 of their NCAA tournament games as an at-large team (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Do not sleep on Kansas because even though they did not win the Big 12 tourney they still have a terrific track record when they do not get an automatic bid (57-23).
TIP #14: Only 3 teams have won an NCAA title after not being in the tournament the previous year it was held (1986 Louisville/2003 Syracuse/2014 UConn).
STRATEGY: Xavier (2022 NIT)/Virginia (2022 NIT) are certainly ready for primetime…but might not be ready to go all the way.
TIP #15: There are 7 schools who have won at least 85% of their NCAA tournament games in their home state (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: How excited is UCLA (29-1 in the state of California) to be playing in Sacramento?!
TIP #16: There are 8 schools who have won at least 75% of their NCAA tournament games as an automatic bid team (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Do not sleep on Duke because when they win the ACC tourney and get an automatic bid they are near-unstoppable (67-19).