This week, Chad was in charge of preparing the Staff Bracket. The bracket below are his picks as to how the NCAA Tournament field should look if today was Selection Sunday. It factors in all results through Sunday, January 14. Below the Bracket are Chad’s Notes and comments on the field from other members of the HoopsHD Staff.
CHAD’S NOTES
- I was not ready to drop Houston off the 1 line based on a single loss. That all changed this weekend with their second straight loss (at TCU) and the Cougars are now a 2 seed. North Carolina jumps onto the 1 line, and UConn jumps up into the #2 overall spot.
- One of the few teams to find a way to win this week, Creighton has almost quietly snuck back into protected seed territory and may just keep climbing as the season goes on.
- When compared to the other profiles of the top teams, and when their 10 game winning streak is also factored in, I am just loving this Dayton profile. In fact, they were my #17 team overall, barely missing out on a protected seed spot.
- TCU was the biggest riser of all this past week, going from not even in most people’s fields all the way to the 8 line. I guess that’s what happens when you beat two top 10 teams back-to-back.
- BYU is on the 8 line but would have actually been on my 7 line. The Cougars cannot play in any region or subregion that has games on a Sunday, and so they had to slide down to an 8. St. John’s was the beneficiary of their move, going from the top of the 8 line onto the 7.
- Colorado and Oregon were my top two “First Four” teams but had to be split into separate games to avoid a conference matchup. Oregon continues to trend up, even if Cal gave them a scare this weekend. Colorado (and Utah) are both trending down, which is not a good sign for the Pac-12.
- St. Mary’s is actually very close to being at-large worthy (although they are my projected auto-bid winner out of the WCC anyhow). The Gaels have a huge game this week at San Francisco and then 3 straight home games before their trip to Spokane to take on the Zags. The next few weeks will make or break their profile.
- James Madison suffered their second loss this week and is now below the at-large field. However, I still feel they are the best team in the Sun Belt (rated by overall profile, not who beat them head-to-head) and so they are still my projected auto-bid winner.
- My top 4 teams out were, in order, Cincinnati, Mississippi State, Virginia Tech and Kansas State. My next 4 teams out were New Mexico, Washington State, Boise State and Wake Forest. Also considered were Texas, Gonzaga, Florida, Georgia, Virginia, Iowa, NC State, Syracuse, Arizona State, Washington and Indiana. All of these teams have a ton of work to do to get into At-Large Consideration.
STAFF COMMENTS
From John:
- It does seem like North Carolina has had a ton of momentum in the ACC this year and could easily be 10-0 in conference play going into the first game against Duke. Best of all, they don’t host Pitt this year! (but they did thrash them on the road)
- While Creighton finally seems to be trending upward, Marquette is starting to trend downward after back-to-back losses against Seton Hall and Butler. They don’t have the aura of invincibility in the league that they had last season. And now one of their players is out for the year with an ACL injury.
- Northwestern and Miami have similar profiles, especially with each team taking on a real baffling loss. Losing at home against Louisville might require a waiver from our Committee, though.
- I’d rather see a team like Mississippi State get one of the last four bids as opposed to Providence. The Friars are really struggling without Bryce Hopkins and while they nearly won at St. John’s, Xavier shredded them on their home court. While the Musketeers likely aren’t dancing without an auto bid this year, playing them this year may well be like getting a root canal without the anasthetic.
From David:
-I hate to say this, but Chad and I aren’t all that much different. I agree with not having Houston on the 1-line. I like the Cougars, but to date their best win is at Iowa State, which is good, but they don’t top out anywhere close to where the other #1 seeds top out.
-Dayton is interesting. Having them on the 5-line seems generous. I’m not saying they’re overseeded. I’m just saying that’s a generous seed. Now, having to play Princeton in the Round of 64…I’d rather be a 6 seed and someone from the 11 line.