NEWS AND NOTES:
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-Georgia Tech might be the worst team that’s ever managed to beat multiple (probable) protected seeds in the same season. They have a losing record overall and have lost to the likes of Notre Dame and UMass Lowell, but they’ve managed wins against Duke, at Clemson somehow, and now against North Carolina. They beat the Tarheels i74-73 n a game that came right down to the wire. I don’t think this game alone will knock the Tarheels off the #1 line, but it is a bit of a setback for a team that was as hot as anyone in the nation.
-A week ago I would have said South Carolina was good and that they’d probably end up inside the bubble. After a decisive win against Kentucky (albeit at home) and a road win at Tennessee this past week, I’m starting to think that South Carolina could end up as a protected seed. Of the teams that our Selection Committee Guessing Expert Jon Teitel has on his top two lines (SEEN HERE), I believe the are a combined 83-2 at home. One of those losses was Tennessee’s lost to South Carolina last night. It is categorically one of the single best wins that any team has managed all season or will manage all season. Teams that get protected seeds simply do not lose at home. Even if they are playing other protected seeds they still win the vast majority of them. That was a MONSTER 63-59 win for the Gamecocks last night.
-Marquette was blowing out Villanova, then Nova came back, then Nova got the lead in the second half, then Marquette came back, and then Marquette got control and won 85-80. Villanova has some very good wins on their resume, but at just 11-10 and with five straight losses the Wildcats may be in some trouble.
-TCU and Texas Tech battled in a match-up of top 25 teams with TCU getting the 85-78 win at home. Despite the loss, Texas Tech is playing great basketball right now and will likely be a dangerous team come March.
-Oklahoma, who I had been beating up on pretty bad for not doing anything away from home, did something away from home last night. They blew out Kansas State 73-53. K State was hovering around the bubble, and had been playing really well at home this season, so the Sooners deserve a lot of credit for this win.
-Colorado State got a battle from San Diego State. The Rams jumped out to a big lead early, then the Azetcs fought back and got the lead in the second half, but Colorado State pulled it out 79-71. It’s a nice win for Colorado State, and while it would have been a great road win for San Diego State, the loss shouldn’t set them back all that much.
-Mississippi State still does not have a road win this season. They fell at rival Ole Miss 86-82 last night in what was another exciting and emotional game. Mississippi State’s road record (or lack thereof) is becoming an issue. If they can’t get at least a few between now and the end the committee will almost assuredly not select them.
-Miami FL, who I picked to go to the Final Four before the year started, lost at NC State last ngith 74-68. If I were to pick my Final Four now, I would NOT be picking Miami FL!!
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HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:
NORTHWESTERN AT PURDUE (Big Ten). I think Northwestern is safely inside the bubble, but they could REALLY climb the seedlist if they’re able to pull off a win tonight. They already have a win over Purdue, who seems to be heading for a #1-seed, but that was at home. To beat them on the road is an entirely different beast.
-ALABAMA AT GEORGIA (SEC). Alabama is looking more and more like they could end up as a protected seed, and they’ve got another big test on the road tonight. Georgia is outside the bubble, but they’re 11-1 at home this year and aren’t going to be easy to beat.
-SAINT JOHN’S AT XAVIER (Big East). The Johnnies ended their three game losing streak last week, but will likely be tested on the road tonight against Xavier. X was absolutely atom-bombed in their last game against UConn, and it will be interesting to see how they look tonight. They’ll have to probably win 10 of their next 13 to have any shot at landing inside the bubble, but we’ve seen X go on late runs before.
-BAYLOR AT UCF (Big 12). Baylor is a good team with a good resume, but they’re also coming off a loss to TCU, and having to go on the road to bounce back is not the easiest thing in the world to do, especially against a UCF team that’s trying to reach the bubble themselves. Still, while it’s not an easy road game to win, ending up as a protected seed requires that teams win games that are not easy to win.
-FLORIDA AT KENTUCKY (SEC). Kentucky is a protected seed who is playing at home, whereas Florida is a team that’s outside the bubble playing on the road. A win like this for the Gators could springboard them forward, but despite a loss last week and a struggle over the weekend I still think this is a very solid Kentucky team.
-PROVIDENCE AT CONNECTICUT (Big East). I continue to be impressed with how Providence keeps winning games despite all they went through during the offseason and how they’ve dealt with injuries throughout this season. They’re coming off an emotional win over Georgetown, but to win at UConn tonight, who is playing the best basketball in the country right now, is a VERY tall order.
-BOISE STATE AT NEW MEXICO (Mountain West). This is one of the better games of the night, and it’s going to cause me to lose sleep. I think that resumes aside, New Mexico is the best team in the MWC on the court, and by the end of the year their profile will reflect that. Boise State has also been playing really well, but they’re coming off an overtime loss at home to Utah State, and this game on the road tonight is probably their toughest remaining game.
-SANTA CLARA AT SAINT MARY’S (West Coast). A bit of a bubblicious game tonight. SMC needs to hold serve and keep winning in the WCC in order to reach the bubble, but if Santa Clara can get this one on the road then you have to at least give them a little bit of a look as well.
OTHER NOTABLE GAMES:
–Notre Dame @ Virginia (ACC) – Virginia should be able to pick up their 5th straight win without too much trouble tonight
–Wake Forest @ Pittsburgh (ACC) – Wake is still outisde the bubble and needs to hold serve in games like this in order to…well…hold serve
–Cincinnati @ West Virginia (Big 12) – Cincinnati has been straddling our bubble for weeks now. They need this one on the road. Even though it’s a road game, WVU is not within 100 miles of the bubbble and it’s a game the Bearcats cannot afford to lose
–Richmond @ Fordham (Atlantic 10) – They’re not inside the bubble right now, but I think Richmond will get a serious look from the committee if they can win out, which they are good enough to do
–Rice @ Memphis (American) – after two straight losses Memphis must bounce back tonight against a Rice team that amounts to a home buy game
–Valparaiso @ Drake (Missouri Valley) – Drake has a shot at reaching the bubble if they can win out or come close to it
–Wofford @ Samford (SoCon) – Samford can get to an impressive 19-3 on the year if they can hold serve at home tonight
–Vanderbilt @ Auburn (SEC) – Auburn hast lost two straight, but should have very little problem getting this one tonight