It was Chad’s turn to do the Staff Bracket this week, and below is his current field through all game of Sunday, February 11. This is how he believes the field currently should stand as of this date. Below the bracket are Chad’s notes on the field and comments and reactions to it from other members of the HoopsHD Staff.
CHAD’S NOTES:
- The top three teams in the field seem to be almost locked in at this point; however, the fourth one seed is a battle between five or six teams. I am going with Arizona, a team with seven Quad 1 wins, 6 of which were away from home. I understand that there are a couple of head-scratching losses, but the profile is just looking stronger right now than the other top contenders.
- Two weeks ago, Wisconsin was in play for a 1 seed. Today, the Badgers are barely a top 4 seed and have, in my opinion, dropped below conference-mate Illinois in the bracket. Four straight losses, two of which were to teams not anywhere near the bracket (Michigan and Rutgers) will do that. Plus, the 22-point losing margin against the Scarlet Knights was . . . well . . . flat out BAD.
- Clemson is flying back up my seed list and barely missed the 4 line. That’s what winning at North Carolina and following it up with a solid road win at Syracuse will do.
- Utah fell a ton this week after back-to-back home losses. The Utes played great in their home loss to Arizona, but didn’t bother showing up against a pretty weak Arizona State team. Utah is not a lock to make the field by any means after this week.
- Ole Miss also fell following a pair of losses this week. Losing to Auburn and at South Carolina is no crime, but the Rebels only have three wins against my field, and none against a team in the top half of it Their non-conference Strength of Schedule in the 300’s doesn’t help either.
- Gonzaga is back in the field as an at-large team. That is what winning at Kentucky can do for a team without much in terms of bad losses. However, the Zags have no margin for error and probably cannot afford another loss until the WCC finals if they want an at-large bid. This includes having to win at St. Mary’s to end the regular season, because I think it will be very hard for this team to get in if they end up going 0-3 against the Gaels.
- My top four teams out, in order, were Memphis, Providence, Cincinnati and Nevada. Memphis may finally have things back on track after their dominant win Sunday over Tulane and could quickly move right back into the bracket. Also considered were the following: Kansas State, Colorado, Villanova, Wake Forest, UCF, Pittsburgh, Drake, Oregon, Miami, Richmond, Minnesota, James Madison, Princeton and Caitlin Clark.
- As a final note, I don’t actually look at the matchups until after the bracket is built, and a few great first round matchups were totally coincidence. Kentucky vs Michigan State would be a monster 7-10 game. Maybe just as fun, there are a pair of matchups of coaches against their former schools — Akron’s John Groce getting Illinois and Virginia’s Tony Bennett getting Washington State.
STAFF COMMENTS
COMMENTS FROM STALICA:
– I would listen to arguments that teams like Duke and Clemson are slightly ahead of Alabama and Auburn at this stage. Clemson was in a slump in a weaker ACC, but as Chad noted a win at North Carolina really got them back on track. Also keep in mind that Clemson won at Alabama back in November should those teams get closer together on the seed list.
– Kentucky is plummeting fast on this list. The last time they lost 3 straight home games, Adolph Rupp was still coaching and Rupp Arena hadn’t been built yet. They’ll probably win their next two games (at home against Ole Miss and at Auburn) just to annoy me.
– Joby has to be loving the fact that the Mountain West is starting to cannibalize itself. Yet I couldn’t help but notice that the team benefitting the most from quality wins against the MW is – Saint Mary’s. The Gaels are dominating the WCC and are also benefitting from Gonzaga’s wakeup call at Kentucky.
– I think Seton Hall is safer than St. John’s when it comes to teams near the cut line, but the Pirates didn’t help their cause with a blowout loss at Villanova this weekend. If they lose at home against Xavier, then we can start the discussion about whether or not they should be in. St. John’s is running out of chances for quality wins, and they could very well torpedo their chances if they stumble against their remaining 3 buy game wins against Georgetown/DePaul.
– As far as UTR teams go, Morehead State is likely the first team that will clinch their regular season crown in conference play. Also keep in mind that they will be looking to avenge an early exit in the OVC Tournament last year; don’t expect the Eagles to hit the snooze button should they clinch the #1 seed early on. (Now if only they remember to leave their lights on the rest of the way…)
COMMENTS FROM DAVID GRIGGS:
-Blind resume, 19-5 on the year, 10-3 in a Power Conference, just one loss outside of quads 1 and 2, winners of 8 straight, including 4 on the road, and a big win at Clemson in that stretch. Does this sound like a #9 seed to you?? Well, Chad seems to think so. To be fair, Virginia has kind of snuck up on everyone, but HOLY CRAP are they on fire right now!! I think EVERYONE is undervaluing them.
-I do like Wazzu, and am happy Chad has them inside his bubble, but I’m not sure I like them so much that I think they belong in the top half of the bracket, and I sure as hell don’t think they’re better than Virginia!
-Mississippi State has finally gotten a road win, and when you look at some of their strong neutral floor wins I am now to a point to where I can stomach them being in the field. An 11 seed actually sounds about right. Now, they still need some more road wins in order to stay there, but for now that seems about right.
-I also really like how Butler is playing. They are another team that a lot of people seem like they’ve been slow to warm up to. They have a big week this week and we’ll see where they land next week.