Conference Tourney Previews, Part 1 of 2

HoopsHD kicks off the greatest time of the year with a 2-part preview of every single conference tourney in the nation. Jon Teitel commences our coverage with his predictions for the 15 conference tourneys that will be getting underway before March 12th. Tweet us if you have any comments, and check back next weekend for his picks concerning the 17 other conference tourneys.

America East tourney predicted champ: Vermont (#1 seed)
Dates: March 9-16
Location: Campus sites
2023 tourney champ: Vermont (#1 seed)
Fun fact: Vermont has won this tourney 4 times in past 6 years that it was played
Seeding: 6 of past 8 champs were #1-seed
The Catamounts struggled out of the non-conference gate by losing 3 of their final 4 games in December but have been rolling since then with only 1 loss since Christmas. Coach John Becker has made the title game 6 of the past 7 years that this tourney has been played so nobody will be able to out-coach him in March. Since the higher seed will host each tourney game in which they play, Vermont cannot wait to welcome teams to Patrick Gymnasium where they have lost exactly 1 home game all season. Defense allegedly wins championships and a team that is 9th in the nation with 62.8 PPG allowed knows the importance of guarding their own basket, as well as holding onto the ball: their 9.1 TO/game is also among the best in the nation.

Atlantic Sun tourney predicted champ: Stetson (#2 seed)
Dates: March 4-10
Location: Campus sites
2023 tourney champ: Kennesaw State (#1 seed)
Fun fact: Liberty has made title game 4 times in past 5 years
Seeding: Each of past 4 champs were #1 seed
I am accustomed to automatically writing in Liberty to win this tourney but not this year…since the Flames joined Conference USA last summer. While this is 1 of those tourneys where it usually pays to pick the #1 seed, Eastern Kentucky only played the Hatters once this year and lost by 8 PTS in DeLand on February 10th so the choice is Stetson. Coach Donnie Jones had a losing record during each of his 1st 3 years in DeLand but has now won 17+ games for the 2nd straight year and will enjoy hosting as many games as possible since he only has 2 home losses all year (both by single digits). Each of his top-5 scorers are juniors or seniors so they should have enough veteran leadership to prevail in a game that goes down to the wire, especially with a 76.4 FT% that is top-35 in the nation.

Big Sky tourney predicted champ: Eastern Washington (#1 seed)
Dates: March 9-13
Location: Boise, ID
2023 tourney champ: Montana State (#2 seed)
Fun fact: Montana State has made title game each of past 3 years
Seeding: Each of past 12 champs were top-2 seed
This tourney likes the best seeds and Eastern Washington went 5-1 this year vs. Montana/Northern Colorado/Weber State so I guess we have to go with the Eagles. While they looked shaky in November after starting 1-6 with only a win over mighty Walla Walla, they have been flying high since then by winning 19 of their past 23 games. Coach David Riley had never even been a head coach as of 3 years ago, but since replacing Shantay Legans in 2021 he has proven that a 34-year old guy can come in and win games right from the start. 1 of the “biggest” factors in his success is the size of his roster, with each of his top-7 scorers standing 6’5” or taller. That is also the reason why they are so good around the basket: their 57.9 2P% is top-10 in the nation.

Big South tourney predicted champ: UNC-Asheville (#2 seed)
Dates: March 6-10
Location: High Point, NC
2023 tourney champ: UNC-Asheville (#1 seed)
Fun fact: 5 different champs in past 6 years
Seeding: 6 of past 7 champs were top-2 seed
High Point appeared to be running away with this league by winning 17 of 18 after Thanksgiving, but then stubbed their toe twice in a 3-game stretch with a pair of losses to UNC-Asheville and USC Upstate…by the exact same score of 86-81! That opened the door for the Bulldogs, who will be feeling rather confident as the defending tourney champ even though the Panthers are hosting the tourney this year. Since a 5-PT loss at High Point on January 10th, Coach Mike Morrell has bounced back by winning 10 of his final 13 games. UNC-Asheville has been living by the 3 all season: their 37.4 3P% is top-30 in the nation. Unlike a lot of other teams that have a well-balanced lineup, the star of their show is SR PF Drew Pember. The Tennessee transfer and defending conference POY/DPOY has remained an all-around threat with 20.4 PPG/7.9 RPG/3.4 APG/1.9 BPG/36.5 3P%/84.7 FT%.

CAA tourney predicted champ: UNC-Wilmington (#4 seed)
Dates: March 8-12
Location: Washington, DC
2023 tourney champ: Charleston (#2 seed)
Fun fact: 5 different champs in past 5 years
Seeding: 4 of past 5 champs were not #1 seed
The sentimental pick (as always) is the Tribe because they are 1 of only 3 original D-1 schools (along with Army/Citadel) who have never made the NCAA tourney. That makes this 1 of those fun leagues where I get to pick someone way under the radar because that is who often wins it all. Charleston has only lost 3 games since early-December, but 2 of those losses were by single-digits to the Seahawks. After only winning 7 games in his debut season Coach Takayo Siddle has now won 21+ games for the 3rd year in a row. There is a bit of a red flag as he lost 3 of his final 5 games but 1 was by 1-PT and the other was in double-OT so there is no reason to panic. JR Trazarien White is 1 of the best scorers in the league and the next 5 scorers on his team are all seniors so this club does not lack experience. They also rely on their ball security, as their opponents’ 4 SPG is the fewest in the nation.

Horizon tourney predicted champ: Youngstown State (#2 seed)
Dates: March 5-12
Location: Campus sites and Indianapolis, IN
2023 tourney champ: Northern Kentucky (#4 seed)
Fun fact: only 3 champs in past 7 years are Cleveland State/Northern Kentucky/Wright State
Seeding: 7 of past 8 champs were not #1 seed
Oakland has been the class of the league this season…but the Grizzlies have never won this title game so perhaps they are not ready to ascend to the summit just yet. The Penguins have never hoisted this trophy since joining the league in 2001 but after sweeping Oakland they seem poised for a breakthrough. Coach Jerrod Calhoun has demonstrated the exact kind of progress an administration wishes for: 20-loss seasons during his 1st 2 years as he implements his identity, followed by 5 straight winning seasons including back-to-back 22-win campaigns. His team has been inconsistent this year but it is encouraging to see that YSU has had a whopping 5 separate winning streaks of at least 3 games so they know what it takes to get hot/stay hot. Each of their top-5 scorers are seniors and the offense is outstanding: their 81.5 PPG/77.2 FT% are both top-25 in the nation.

MVC tourney predicted champ: Drake (#2 seed)
Dates: March 7-10
Location: St. Louis, MO
2023 tourney champ: Drake (#2 seed)
Fun fact: Drake has made title game each of past 3 years
Seeding: 7 of past 9 champs were not #1 seed
Indiana State has 1 of the best offenses in the nation and seemed to be cruising to the finish line with a 22-3 record in early-February…then lost back-to-back games to a pair of teams from Illinois and allowed Drake to get right back in the picture. The Bulldogs lost the title game in both 2021 and 2022 before finally winning it in 2023, and with reigning conference POY Tucker DeVries playing even better than last year they have a great chance of defending their championship. His father is not too shabby either, as Coach Darian DeVries has now won 20+ games during each of his 6 years in charge: Love the Drake!

NEC predicted champ: Merrimack (#2 seed)
Dates: March 6-12
Location: Campus sites
2023 tourney champ: Merrimack (#1 seed)
Fun fact: 6 different champs in past 6 years
Seeding: 4 of past 6 champs were not #1 seed
Merrimack won this tourney last year but was ineligible for the NCAA tourney so they finished the year on an 11-game winning streak. This year the Warriors are finally eligible for the big-time so even though this tourney has not been kind to defending champs or #1 seeds they won 9 in a row down the stretch before losing the regular season finale by 4 PTS at Sacred Heart. Coach Joe Gallo’s offense leaves a lot to be desired but his defense is top-notch: their 10 SPG is top-10 in the nation. Unlike many teams who rely on senior leadership Merrimack has exactly 1 senior among its top-5 scorers. Their top-100 non-conference strength of schedule should also pay great dividends in the postseason because they know what it is like to face good teams.

OVC predicted champ: Little Rock (#1 seed)
Dates: March 6-9
Location: Evansville, IN
2023 tourney champ: Southeast Missouri State (#5 seed)
Fun fact: 4 different champs in past 4 years
Seeding: 5 of past 6 champs were top-2 seed
Morehead State seemed to be coasting to the finish line after starting 11-1 in league play before losing 3 in a row in mid-February so the door is ajar. In contrast, the Trojans started 2-3 before flipping the switch and winning 12 of their final 13 games with just a 2-PT loss at SIUE on February 1st. Coach Darrell Walker had finished with a losing record each of the previous 3 years but has a group of veterans who turned things around this year as each of his top-3 scorers are seniors. They beat each of the other top-4 seeds back-to-back-to-back in February so they have already proved that they can take care of business.

Patriot predicted champ: Colgate (#1 seed)
Dates: March 5-13
Location: Campus sites
2023 tourney champ: Colgate (#1 seed)
Fun fact: Colgate has made title game in each of past 6 years
Seeding: each of past 7 champs were top-3 seed
Army is the sentimental favorite: it would be quite a sight to see the Black Knights make the NCAA tourney for the 1st time in their 122-year basketball history. However, my own sentiment lies with my fellow Penn alum Matt Langel, who has appeared in the title game during each of the past 6 years and won it 3 years in a row. The play “Hamilton” was a smash hit on Broadway and the home-cooking that the Raiders will get while playing each of their postseason games in the city of Hamilton as the higher seed should receive rave reviews: they only lost 3 home games all year by a combined 13 PTS. While they have succeeded in the past due to their incredible 3-PT shooting, this year they are getting it done with defense as their 63.4 PPG allowed is top-15 in the nation. If you like Purdue’s 6’/180-pound SO PG who is averaging 12+ PPG/5+ RPG/5+ APG named Braden Smith then you are going to love Colgate’s 6’/180-pound SO PG who is averaging 12+ PPG/5+ RPG/5+ APG named…Braeden Smith!

SoCon predicted champ: Samford (#1 seed)
Dates: March 8-11
Location: Asheville, NC
2023 tourney champ: Furman (#1 seed)
Fun fact: 5 different champs in past 5 years
Seeding: 8 of past 9 champs were #1-seed
This tourney likes #1 seeds almost as much as the Puppet likes “BuckyBall” so the pick is Samford. Coach Bucky McMillan only won 6 games in his debut season in 2021 but has now won 21+ games for the 3rd year in a row. He even took it up a notch this year by setting a school record with 26 wins (and counting). The Bulldogs lost their 1st 2 games of the season at Purdue/VCU but have been near-unstoppable since then with only 3 losses during their final 29 games. Samford has been living rather well by the 3 as their 39.8 3P% is top-5 in the nation. Each of the top-7 scorers on this veteran crew are juniors or seniors led by Australian F Achor Achor so my level of confidence is high high!

Southland predicted champ: McNeese (#1 seed)
Dates: March 10-14
Location: Lake Charles, LA
2023 tourney champ: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (#1 seed)
Fun fact: only champs since 2018 still in this conference is Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
Seeding: 4 of past 5 champs were not #1 seed
As much as I would like to predict a 3-peat for the Islanders, they were swept by McNeese this year so let’s Cowboy up instead. Coach Will Wade was suspended for the first 10 games of this season and given a 2-year show-cause penalty due to recruiting/bribery allegations but the main thing his team has shown is resilience while winning a school-record 28 games (and counting). They are deadly from behind the arc as their 38.8 3P% is top-10 in the nation but they can also guard the paint as their 45.2 2P% allowed is top-15 in the nation. Their average scoring margin this season has been almost 19 PPG but each of their 3 losses were by single-digits so the only question is how they will respond to a game that goes down to the wire.

Summit predicted champ: South Dakota State (#1 seed)
Dates: March 8-12
Location: Sioux Falls, SD
2023 tourney champ: Oral Roberts (#1 seed)
Fun fact: North Dakota State has made title game each of past 5 years
Seeding: 4 of past 6 champs were #1 seed
Usually the “Dakota State” team who wins this tourney is North Dakota State, but it is their neighbor to the south who is getting hot at the right time. The Jackrabbits started 7-4 in conference play but finished strong with 5 straight wins including 3 on the road. Coach Eric Henderson may never again repeat his ridiculous 30-win season of 2022 but being able to match last year’s 19-win season seems like a nice consolation prize. South Dakota State has been powerful in the paint as their 56 2P% is top-20 in the nation. I still do not know if mayo is a condiment or a sauce…but what I do know is that JR PG Zeke Mayo is 1 of the best all-around players in this league: 19.3 PPG/5.9 RPG/3.6 APG/1.2 SPG/37.7 3P%/83.2 FT%.

Sun Belt predicted champ: James Madison (#2 seed)
Dates: March 5-11
Location: Pensacola, FL
2023 tourney champ: Louisiana (#2 seed)
Fun fact: 3 different champs in past 3 years
Seeding: 5 of past 6 champs were not #1 seed
Appalachian State swept the Dukes in January and must be considered the favorite so we will have to depend on that old reliable “it is hard to beat a team 3 times in 1 season” adage. It also helps that this tournament has not been kinds to #1 seeds, but how often do you see a #2 seed with 28 wins?! Coach Mark Byington has increased his win total during each of his 4 years in Harrisonburg and already set a school record this year. The key has been perimeter defense, as their 28.5 3P% allowed is #3 in the nation…but not even #1 in their own conference because Louisiana is at 27.8 3P% allowed. If you want to beat JMU then you better bring your A-game on defense because it will be hard to outscore a team whose 84.6 PPG is top-10 in the nation.

WCC predicted champ: St. Mary’s (#1 seed)
Dates: March 7-12
Location: Las Vegas, NV
2023 tourney champ: Gonzaga (#2 seed)
Fun fact: Gonzaga has won 20 titles in past 25 years and finished 2nd each of the other 5 times
Seeding: 23 of past 25 champs were top-2 seed
Gonzaga coach Mark Few’s dominance of this conference since taking over in Spokane in 1999 remains almost incomprehensible: 23 straight NCAA tourney appearances (not counting the COVID cancellation), 22 regular season titles, 19 conference tourney titles, while being named conference COY a tremendous 14 times. However, it is St. Mary’s who has been doing their best Bulldog impersonation this season by winning 21 of 22 games from early-December through late-February. Granted, losing to Gonzaga at home by double-digits last Saturday is not exactly the momentum you want to finish the regular season with, but the Gaels can still take comfort in their dominant defense: their 58.5 PPG allowed is #2 in the nation. JR PG Augustas Marciulionis was underwhelming during his 1st 2 years but has made the leap in year #3 and appears to be the best basketball import from Lithuania since…his Hall of Fame father Sarunas!