HoopsHD keeps celebrating the greatest time of the year with Part 3 of our 3-part preview of every single conference tourney in the nation. Jon Teitel continues our coverage with his predictions for the 16 conference tourneys getting underway this week. Tweet us if you have any comments, and if you missed his picks last week about the 15 other conference tourneys you can find them at:
https://hoopshd.com/2025/03/02/conference-tourney-previews-part-1-of-3
https://hoopshd.com/2025/03/06/conference-tourney-previews-part-2-of-3
AAC tourney predicted champ: North Texas (#2 seed)
Dates: March 12-16
Location: Fort Worth, TX
2024 tourney champ: UAB (#4 seed)
Fun fact: 4 different champs in past 5 tourneys
Seeding: 4 of past 5 champs were not #1 seed
Houston had owned this tourney for several years, and the tourney takes place in the state of Texas, so let’s go with the Mean Green. I know that Memphis will be heavily-favored, but Coach Ross Hodge only lost to the Tigers by 4 PTS on the road back in January, and since that loss he has won 13 of his past 16 games. The “meanest” side of North Texas is on the defensive end of the court: their 59.5 PPG allowed is #3 in the nation and their 30.5 3P% allowed is top-30 in the nation. If the game comes down to the wire then they should be fine because their 77.6 FT% is also top-30 in the nation thanks in large part to leading scorer Atin Wright’s 93.5 FT%.
A-10 tourney predicted champ: St. Joe’s (#6 seed)
Dates: March 12-16
Location: Washington, DC
2024 tourney champ: Duquesne (#6 seed)
Fun fact: 8 different champs in past 8 tourneys
Seeding: 3 of past 5 champs were #6 seed
VCU and GMU have been atop the standings for most of the past month, but for some weird reason this tourney loves the 6-seed so I am sending out my love to the Hawks. This tourney has had 8 different champs in the past 8 tourneys that were played, and since St. Joe’s started that trend back in 2016 it is time for them to keep the trend going by winning it again in 2025. Coach Billy Lange had losing seasons during each of his 1st 4 years in Philly but has finally gotten the hang of it with back-to-back 20+ win seasons. Thanks to their Twin Towers of 6’9” Rasheer Fleming/6’10” Justice Ajogbor their interior defense is intimidating opponents into 46.1 2P% (top-20 in the nation). Their 2 losses to VCU/GMU this year were by a total of 10 PTS so even if 1 of the top-2 seeds tries to end St. Joe’s season this week the 1 thing we know for sure is that “The Hawk Will Never Die”!
ACC tourney predicted champ: Louisville (#2 seed)
Dates: March 11-15
Location: Charlotte, NC
2024 tourney champ: NC State (#10 seed)
Fun fact: 4 different champs in past 5 tourneys
Seeding: each of past 4 champs were not top-3 seed
Coach Pat Kelsey might be new to the ACC but his performance in past conference tourneys already puts him among the best in the nation: he won 3 Big South tourneys in a 5-year span at Winthrop, then won a pair of CAA tourneys during the past 2 years at Charleston. After starting this season 6-5 and losing LOTS of guys to season-ending injuries, he somehow has pushed all the right buttons while winning 19 of his final 20 games. While they did lose to Duke by double-digits in their conference opener last December, the Cardinals were able to foul out Cooper Flagg and limit the Blue Devils to 8-30 3PM, so I think they have a legit shot of upsetting the #1 team in the nation if the rematch takes place in the title game. That being said: if G Reyne Smith’s injury keeps him out of the postseason, then please forget everything I just wrote!
Big 12 tourney predicted champ: Iowa State (#5 seed)
Dates: March 11-15
Location: Kansas City, MO
2024 tourney champ: Iowa State (#2 seed)
Fun fact: only 3 champs since 2013 are Iowa State/Kansas/Texas
Seeding: 4 of past 5 champs were not #1 seed
Last year Coach TJ Otzelberger lost 8 games total, including a single-digit road loss at Houston in February, had a top-10 defense, and was able to win 3 straight games in Kansas City. This year he has lost 8 games total, including a single-digit road loss at Houston in February, has a top-10 defense…and we shall see what happens this weekend. As great as the Cougars are this tourney simply does not like #1 seeds, and the Cyclones beat both #2 seed Texas Tech/#3 seed Arizona earlier this year. That being said: if G Keshon Gilbert’s injury keeps him out of the postseason, then please forget everything I just wrote!
Big East tourney predicted champ: St. John’s (#1 seed)
Dates: March 12-15
Location: New York, NY
2024 tourney champ: UConn (#1 seed)
Fun fact: 4 different champs in past 4 tourneys
Seeding: 6 of past 7 champs were top-2 seed
As always, if Georgetown wins this 1 then I might just have to hang up the old keyboard because it means I know absolutely nothing about this sport. I also know it is unwise to bet against Coach Dan Hurley in the postseason…but since Coach Rick Pitino was the only guy to sweep the 2-time-defending national champs this year he gets my vote. St. John’s has not won this tourney since 2000, but this tourney loves its top seeds and the crowd at Madison Square Garden will LOVE the Red Storm. I am almost more impressed by their losses: they were all away from home and by a total of 7 PTS, which means they are literally 4 possessions away from being undefeated. The secret to their success has been defense: 45.2 2P% allowed #9 in the nation. Then again, if they keep shooting 29.9% behind the arc and 68.6% from the FT line, perhaps it will bite them in the butt at just the wrong time.
Big 10 tourney predicted champ: Maryland (#2 seed)
Dates: March 12-16
Location: Indianapolis, IN
2024 tourney champ: Illinois (#2 seed)
Fun fact: 5 different champs in past 6 tourneys
Seeding: 4 of past 5 champs were top-2 seed
1 reason that Michigan State easily secured the #1 seed was their 3-PT win in College Park a couple of weeks ago thanks to Tre Hollman’s half-court buzzer-beater. Coach Kevin Willard’s team could have let that gut-punch ruin their entire season, but instead they went back to work and picked up a road win at Ann Arbor last Wednesday that helped them end up with the #2 seed. The Terps’ focus on the 3-PT line has helped them on both ends of the court: 37 3P% and 30.8 3P% allowed are both top-40 in the nation. The Brother Buildings of Derik Queen/Julian Reese (can we really call them “Twin” Towers if 1 is a freshman and 1 is a senior?!) have combined for 29 PPG/19 REB/3 BPG, and both are shooting better than 52 FG%/74 FT%. All 7 of their losses this year were by 6 PTS or less so they have proven that even if you can build a lead on them in the 1st half they will not go away.
Big West tourney predicted champ: UC-Irvine (#2 seed)
Dates: March 12-15
Location: Henderson, NV
2024 tourney champ: Long Beach State (#4 seed)
Fun fact: 4 different champs in past 5 tourneys
Seeding: each of past 3 champs were not #1 seed
I know that UCSD has only lost 4 games all season, but this tourney does not like #1 seeds, and since 1 of their losses was to UC-Irvine in January I will pick the Anteaters. Coach Russell Turner has racked up 13 straight winning seasons and enters this tourney on a 5-game winning streak. They have a 7’1’ center in Bent Leuchten, which is why their 42.9 2P% allowed is #3 in the nation, and they have an astounding SIX different guys shooting at least 80% from the FT line, which is why they are also top-5 in the nation in that category. It is important to have a veteran PG in March and they have a good 1 in Justin Hohn: for those of you who enjoy “high tea”, you have to like a guy who attended “Tea High”!
C-USA tourney predicted champ: Liberty (#1 seed)
Dates: March 11-15
Location: Huntsville, AL
2024 tourney champ: Western Kentucky (#3 seed)
Fun fact: 7 different champs in past 7 tourneys
Seeding: 3 of past 4 champs were not #1 seed
I know this tourney doe not like #1 seeds, but I kept finding reasons to not like anyone else so give me Liberty or give me…a good reason not to pick them. While the Flames are not exactly on fire(!), Coach Ritchie McKay did win 11 of his final 13 games. They also built up a lot of neutral-site confidence during non-conference play with back-to-back wins over Kansas State/McNeese in the Virgin Islands. Liberty owns the 3-PT line like few other teams in the nation: 38.5 3P% is #13 in D-1, while 27.3 3P% allowed is #1 with a bullet. My biggest concern is their 65.5 FT%, which is bottom-20 in the nation: 5 of their 6 losses were by 5 PTS or less, so if any of their games go down to the wire it might be difficult to watch. However, this tourney has had 7 different champs in a row so we shall see if 8 is indeed enough.
Ivy tourney predicted champ: Yale (#1 seed)
Dates: March 15-16
Location: Providence, RI
2024 tourney champ: Yale (#2 seed)
Fun fact: only 3 teams to ever win tourney are Penn/Princeton/Yale
Seeding: each of 6 all-time champs were top-2 seed
After Monday’s firing of Penn coach Steve Donahue I admit that I lost a lot of interest in this tourney. However, I will still give it a shot. The only 3 teams to ever win this tourney are Penn/Princeton/Yale, and every single winner of this tourney has been a top-2 seed, so it seems obvious to choose Yale. Over the past 12 weeks the Bulldogs have lost exactly 2 games by a combined 6 PTS so it will be hard for anyone else to match their momentum. Coach James Jones ensured that his team was battle-tested back in November with a pair of single-digits losses at Purdue/Minnesota, and as long as they keep making threes at a 38.2% clip (top-20 in the nation) they will be hard to beat. My favorite fun fact: the last team that Auburn lost to in postseason play was…Yale (a 78-76 loss in the 1st round of last year’s NCAA tourney)!
MAAC tourney predicted champ: Manhattan (#5 seed)
Dates: March 11-15
Location: Atlantic City, NJ
2024 tourney champ: St. Peter’s (#5 seed)
Fun fact: only 3 champs since 2013 are Iona/Manhattan/St. Peter’s
Seeding: 11 of past 13 champs were not #1 seed
Quinnipiac has had a great season but this tourney dislikes #1 seeds with a passion. Iona has owned this tourney for most of the past decade…but I am just not feeling it this year since they enter postseason play with a 15-16 record. 1 of the teams they lost to was Manhattan, so I will give them the nod instead. The Jaspers have certainly not come close to dominating, but they did win 7 of their final 9 games and their only double-digit loss all season was on opening night at Maryland. Coach John Gallagher won just 7 games last year during his 1st year in Riverdale, but has certainly pulled all the right strings this year thanks in large part to FR Will Sydnor, who is averaging 14 PPG/7 RPG/2 SPG/1 BPG/2 3PM.
MAC tourney predicted champ: Miami OH (#2 seed)
Dates: March 13-15
Location: Cleveland, OH
2024 tourney champ: Akron (#2 seed)
Fun fact: 4 different champs in past 5 tourneys
Seeding: each of past 4 champs were not #1 seed
I am dying to pick Akron, especially since this tourney is in their home state…but history says that #1 seeds do not win this tourney so I am going with the other top-2 seed from Ohio: some refer to them as “Mother Miami”. The RedHawks did get spanked by the Zips in January, and did lose 3 of their final 7 games, but their starting 5 is healthy and has been so all year long. Coach Travis Steele had losing seasons during each of his 1st 2 years in Oxford, but has been a revelation in year #3 with 23 regular season wins. He only has 1 SR on his roster so I thought he might be 1 more year away from contending…but if they can keep scoring 81 PPG while shooting 39.4 3P% they just be able to put enough points on the board in Cleveland to (as a mythical Cleveland sports figure once said) “win the whole f—ing thing”.
MEAC tourney predicted champ: Norfolk State (#1 seed)
Dates: March 12-15
Location: Norfolk, VA
2024 tourney champ: Howard (#4 seed)
Fun fact: only 3 champs since 2014 still in this conference are Howard/NC Central/Norfolk State
Seeding: 4 of past 6 champs were not #1 seed
I know this tourney does not love #1 seeds, but I do not think a 19-loss Howard squad can pull off the 3-peat. South Carolina State is certainly the hottest team in the league with 9 wins in a row, but I am skeptical that they can repeat their success against Norfolk State earlier this month when they made 30 FTs. Coach Robert Jones is wrapping up his 7th straight winning season and was coasting into March on an 8-game winning streak before stubbing his toe in back-to-back road games. He has 5 senior starters, his team’s 49.2 FG% is #11 in the nation, and he has already won this tourney twice in the past 5 years, so if you need to pick 2 winners in March the answer is clear: Mr. Jones and Me!
MWC tourney predicted champ: New Mexico (#1 seed)
Dates: March 12-15
Location: Las Vegas, NV
2024 tourney champ: New Mexico (#6 seed)
Fun fact: 4 different champs in past 5 years
Seeding: 5 of past 6 champs were top-2 seed
San Diego State has made this title game each of the past 7 years so if you are searching for a more dangerous #4-seed in the country then good luck. However, this tourney likes top-2 seeds, and Coach Richard Pitino proved last March that he could beat the Aztecs with a title on the line, so I think the Lobos will make it 2 in a row this year. They did drop back-to-back road games to finish February, but there is certainly no shame in losing at Boise State/San Diego State by 8 PTS. You would think that New Mexico’s ugly 68.8 FT% might cost them a game when it counts…but they have been very fortunate because their opponents’ 66 FT% is 2nd-worst in the nation. This squad proved it can compete with teams outside the MWC by beating UCLA/VCU in non-conference play, and there might not be a better inside/outside combo in the country than PG Donovan Dent (20 PPG/7 APG) and C Nelly Junior Joseph (14 PPG/11 RPG/56 FG%).
SEC predicted champ: Florida (#2 seed)
Dates: March 12-16
Location: Nashville, TN
2024 tourney champ: Auburn (#4 seed)
Fun fact: 3 different champs in past 3 tourneys
Seeding: 4 of past 6 champs were not #1 seed
Auburn has been the best team in the land for most of this season, but after seeing them drop each of their final 2 games and considering the fact that this tourney does not like #1 seeds, I think it is wide open. The best conference in the history of the sport has several strong contenders who are good enough to not just win this postseason tourney, but also the even bigger 1 that kicks off next week. Since the Gators have beaten Alabama/Auburn/Tennessee this year they seem like a smart choice. Coach Todd Golden’s biggest concern a few months ago was whether he was going to be arrested for some off-court incidents, but after the school’s 4-month-long Title IX investigation found no evidence to back up the serious allegations his team has been rolling with an offensive/defensive efficiency that are both top-10 in the nation. They have 3 senior starters in their backcourt (Walter Clayton Jr./Alijah Martin/Will Richard) who have combined for 45 PPG/13 RPG/8 APG/5 SPG/7 3PM, and after seeing PF Micah Handlogten go down with a horrific leg injury in last year’s SEC tourney I think the whole fanbase was reenergized by his return to the court last month.
SWAC predicted champ: Texas Southern (#4 seed)
Dates: March 11-15
Location: Atlanta, GA
2024 tourney champ: Grambling (#1 seed)
Fun fact: Texas Southern has won 5 of past 7 tourneys and finished 2nd each of the other 2 times
Seeding: 3 of past 4 champs were not #1 seed
That’s it: I am done picking anyone other than the Tigers to win this tourney…ever. I know that Coach Johnny Jones went 3-11 to start the season, then lost a game to an Arkansas-Pine Bluff team in February that is 1 of the worst in the nation. However, his team had a 7-game winning streak before the loss to the Golden Lions, and he had to finish that game without 3 of his regular starters (2 did not play at all and the 3rd fouled out). Texas Southern has made the title game each of the past 7 times it has been played (winning 5 of those 7), and even though they were swept by Southern this year they should take comfort in the fact that tourney does not like #1 seeds. They have plenty of veteran leadership thanks to not having a single freshman OR sophomore on the roster, and they only allow their opponents to shoot 40.5 FG%: death, taxes, and the Tigers in this tourney.
WAC predicted champ: GCU (#2 seed)
Dates: March 11-15
Location: St. George, UT, and Las Vegas, NV
2024 tourney champ: GCU (#1 seed)
Fun fact: only champ since 2012 still in this conference is GCU
Seeding: 8 of past 10 champs were top-2 seed
The Lopes have won this tourney in 3 of the past 4 years, and even though Utah Valley earned the #1 seed by losing exactly ONE game since Christmas, that loss was in Phoenix last month so I believe in GCU. Coach Bryce Drew has succeeded this year due to defense: his team is top-35 in the nation with 46.6 2P% allowed/30.8 3P% allowed. I would have thought that an ankle injury to his star player Tyon Grant-Foster would be a cause for concern, but the team has played 8 games without him and not lost a single 1 of them in regulation (they are 7-1 with just a 1-PT OT loss in the season finale at Abilene Christian). Defense travels in March, and since their 9.6 SPG/5.1 BPG are both top-20 in the nation I think it is time to Lopes up!
