CONFERENCE PREVIEW: HORIZON LEAGUE

Posted on October 29, 2014 by Chad

Green Bay won the Horizon League regular season title last year by two games, earning themselves a bye into the conference tournament semifinals and a right to host that game on their home court.  Normally, that is a recipe for a berth in the tournament finals and a shot at an NCAA bid.  Unfortunately for the Phoenix, the Milwaukee Panthers had other plans, turning a 7-9 conference regular season into four straight wins, including at Green Bay in the semifinals and at Wright State in the championship before eventually losing to #2 seed Villanova in the Round of 64.  Green Bay did earn a spot in the NIT, which was a fairly weak consolation prize for a team that had all the tools to win one or more games in the NCAAs.  The Horizon also placed three teams into the CIT: Wright State, Cleveland State and Valparaiso.

This season, Green Bay has a chance at redemption as the Phoenix will once again be the favorites to win the league.  They also will not have to worry about Milwaukee knocking them out of the conference tournament, as the Panthers are banned from postseason play due to low APR scores (and the Panthers lost their top two scorers from last season as well).  While Green Bay did lose Alec Brown to graduation and the NBA draft, virtually everyone else is back including Keifer Sykes who may be the best player in the Horizon.  Green Bay will be challenged this season by a Cleveland State team that features four returning starters and a Detroit team that is led by Juwan Howard, Jr.  Also, keep an eye out for Valparaiso which returns four starters, three of them being only sophomores.

Predicted Order of Finish:
1.  Green Bay: Three other returning starters join Sykes, plus 6-11 Henry Uwadiae from Nigeria (assuming he can learn to play the game) should help make up for the loss of Brown.  If the Phoenix can score a few non-conference wins of note, they may not even need the automatic bid to dance this season.
2.  Detroit: Howard is joined by a pair of transfers, Chris Jenkins (Colorado) and Patrick Ackerman (Penn State) plus four other returning players that averaged 7 or more points per game to give this team enough depth to challenge for the league crown.
3.  Cleveland State: Trey Lewis and Anton Grady lead a balanced team that should still compete despite Bryn Forbes’ decision to transfer to Michigan State.
4.  Valparaiso: Rarely do you see a team with four returning starters and three of them only sophomores, but that is exactly what we have here.  Alec Peters is one of the top forwards in the conference in only his second year and could become a real star for the Crusaders this season.
5.  Milwaukee*: A couple of transfers (Akeem Springs and Brett Prahl) will look to make up for the loss of their top two scorers.  Also, keep an eye on Justin Jordan, nephew of another Jordan of some note (hint: he played college ball for North Carolina and his first name starts with M).
6.  Wright State: Reggie Arceneaux is the only returning starter from last season’s conference tournament runner-up, but he is joined by three other seniors to give this team enough experience to win games.
7.  Oakland: With two of the top three scorers gone from a 20 loss team, this could be a long season.  Corey Petros will need to step up his game and hopefully Max Hooper (who is at his third different school already in his career) can contribute.
8.  Illinois-Chicago: It will hard to be worse than the Flames 6-25 record last season, but a battle to avoid the league basement is probably in store.  JC transfer Kaylen Shane could be a force for them down low.
9.  Youngstown State: After three straight years above or near the .500 mark, the Penguins look like they will fall back to the bottom of the league this season with the loss of their top three players from last year’s 15-17 squad.

*Milwaukee is ineligible for the Horizon League and NCAA tournaments due to low APR scores.

Posted in Conference Preview, News and Notes | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on CONFERENCE PREVIEW: HORIZON LEAGUE

CONFERENCE PREVIEW: CONFERENCE USA

Posted on October 28, 2014 by Chad

Conference USA was a 16 team monstrosity last season that saw four teams tie for first place at 13-3.  Tulsa ended up taking the automatic bid, losing in the Round of 64 to Michigan State.  That loss was followed by Danny Manning’s departure for Wake Forest and the school’s departure for the American Athletic Conference.  Louisiana Tech and UTEP both made postseason appearances (La Tech in the NIT and UTEP in the CBI) last season and look to be the top two teams heading into this year.  The two other teams that tied for first with Tulsa and La Tech, Southern Miss (NIT) and Middle Tennessee (no postseason), look like they may fall off this season.  Conference USA did place three additional teams into postseason play last year as Old Dominion, Tulane and East Carolina all received berths in the CBI.  Of course, Tulane and East Carolina are both gone now, having followed Tulsa to the American.  Western Kentucky does join the conference, however, bringing the total number of teams to a more manageable 14.

Louisiana Tech, led by a solid core group of Alex Hamilton, Raheem Appleby, and Michale Kyser, is our pick to win the conference this season.  Erik McCree is a transfer form Murray State that could help push this team over the top.  UTEP is, however, right on their heels with Tim Floyd adding a solid group of recruits to returning starters Julian Washburn, Vince Hunter and C.J. Cooper.  A third team that could be right in the mix here is UAB, which scored one of the best recruiting surprises in the country by stealing William Lee away from the SEC schools.  Lee may be the best recruit ever to choose to head to Birmingham, and with his talent, the Blazers have a chance to be very good.  The biggest question at UAB is who will hold down the point guard spot after Chad Frazier’s departure.

Charlotte and Old Dominion are also bringing solid teams in this season, while North Texas has a chance to be a surprise contender, especially if Texas A&M transfer J’Mychael Reese proves to be eligible and can live up to his potential after a pair of disappointing seasons in College Station.  In all, Conference USA should have a fair number of strong programs this season as its membership looks like it has (hopefully) stabilized.  Two NCAA tournament bids is not out of the question in CUSA this year, though more than that would probably be a longshot.

Predicted Order of Finish:
1.  Louisiana Tech: Hamilton, Appleby and Kyser plus a strong batch of newcomers should have the Bulldogs dancing this year.
2.  UTEP: Washburn, Hunter and Cooper will lead the way for Tim Floyd’s team that may be good enough for an at-large bid should they need one.
3.  UAB: C.J. Washington was second on the team in scoring behind Frazier and his success, together with that of the team’s chosen point guard, could be enough to help Lee and company be on top of the standings.
4.  Charlotte: With most of their key players back from last season, the 49ers could have what it takes to succeed.
5.  Old Dominion: Aaron Bacote leads a group of deep, talented guards.  If the frontcourt develops, the Monarchs will be dangerous.
6.  North Texas: A dark horse candidate in the league, this team has young talent plus senior leader Jordan Williams who can light up the scoreboard.
7.  Western Kentucky: T.J. Price and George Fant lead an experienced core, but the Hilltoppers will be facing tougher competition than the Sun Belt offered and may lack the depth to contend.
8.  Middle Tennessee: D.J. Jones could be one of the top newcomers in the conference, and should be fun to watch.  However, the Blue Raiders lost too many pieces from last year’s co-champions.
9.  Southern Miss: Doc Sadler has come in to begin a rebuild project with their top four scorers gone.
10.  Florida Atlantic: C.J. Turman is a key recruit and sophomore Marquan Botley is solid at the point as the post-Mike Jarvis era begins for the Owls.
11.  Texas-San Antonio: Jeromie Hill sat out last season with a knee injury but is back this year.  The rest of the pieces surrounding him may be too young though.
12.  Florida International: Adrian Diaz transferred from Kansas State and should be the best player for the Golden Panthers . . . but a long season likely awaits.
13.  Rice: Mike Rhoades has come in to coach from his role as an assistant at VCU and brings the “havoc” system with him.  He just does not have the pieces for success yet.
14.  Marshall: The Thundering Herd targeted Mike D’Antoni for their head coach job, but ended up with his brother, Dan.  Dan does inherit Ryan Taylor who is a double-double threat on a nightly basis, but the rest of the cupboard looks pretty bare.

Posted in Conference Preview, News and Notes | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on CONFERENCE PREVIEW: CONFERENCE USA

CONFERENCE PREVIEW: COLONIAL

Posted on October 28, 2014 by Chad

Last season, the CAA was all about Delaware.  The Fighting Blue Hens went 14-2 during the conference regular season and followed it up with the conference tournament title, before falling by 15 points to Michigan State in the Round of 64.  Delaware’s accomplishments practically overshadowed the continued progress of Pat Skerry’s amazing rebuild at Towson, where he led the Tigers to 25 wins and the conference’s only other postseason berth, a spot in the CIT.  This season should see some major shifts in power at the top, as both Delaware and Towson will need to retool following offseason losses.

The CAA welcomes one new member this season as Elon moves over from the Southern Conference.  The Phoenix probably chose the wrong year for their move, as four of five starters left the program and they will struggle to avoid the CAA basement.  Our preseason pick to actually finish at the top of the conference this year is a program that went just 11-21 last season, the Northeastern Huskies.  The Huskies return their top eight players, and were a lot better than their record indicated last year with nine of 21 losses coming by five points or less.  The Huskies top challenger this year figures to be William & Mary, with potential conference player of the year William Thornton leading the Tribe.  Hofstra and James Madison could also figure in the mix of what appears to be a wide open conference race.

Predicted Order of Finish:
1.  Northeastern: Scott Eatherton, David Walker and Reggie Spencer lead the way for this deep, veteran team.
2.  William & Mary: Omar Prewitt and Terry Tarpey should be big contributors along with Thornton.
3.  Hofstra: Juan’ya Green and Ameen Tanksley both averaged double digit scoring at Niagara two years ago and should help the Pride rise in the standings.
4.  James Madison: Andre Nation and Ron Curry return to lead a solid backcourt, but the Dukes need answers up front.
5.  Drexel: Damion Lee is back after losing last season to an injury, but they may have too many holes to fill after the loss of their top two scorers.
6.  Towson: Four McGlynn is Pat Skerry’s top returnee, but he continues to recruit well.  Keep an eye on Eddie Keith.
7.  Delaware: Kyle Anderson is the only starter back after the surprise transfer of Jarvis Threatt.  This looks like a rebuilding year.
8.  UNC-Wlmington: Cedrick Williams leads three returning senior starters, but not much else here for ex-Pitino assistant Kevin Keatts in his first year.
9.  College of Charleston: The offseason turmoil that led to Doug Wojick’s dismissal as head coach could mean a long first season for Earl Grant.
10.  Elon: Losing their top four players from last season will make this a long first trip through the CAA for the Phoenix.

Posted in Conference Preview, News and Notes | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on CONFERENCE PREVIEW: COLONIAL

CONFERENCE PREVIEW: BIG WEST

Posted on October 27, 2014 by Chad

If things played out the way they are supposed to in conference tournaments, this is where we would be discussing how last season was a battle between UC-Irvine and UC-Santa Barbara all year long until they met in the Big West championship game for the right to play in the NCAA tournament.  But of course, it would not be called March Madness if things went the way they were supposed to on paper, and we probably wouldn’t love watching this sport as much as we do either.  Instead of UCI and UCSB battling for the bid, Cal Poly, 10-19 on the season heading into the conference tournament, knocked off both teams on its way to the NCAA tournament, then added a First Four win over Texas Southern before finally falling to Wichita State.

The regular season is starting, and we can expect much the same as last year in the Big West this season.  UC-Irvine, who did capture last year’s regular season title and played in the NIT, and UC-Santa Barbara, who chose not to play in any postseason tournament last season, should be battling it out again this year.  Cal Poly is expected to be right back down near the bottom of the conference, battling to finish in the top 8 (out of 9 teams) in order to qualify for the Big West tournament . . . and a chance to pull off another magical Cinderella run.

Predicted Order of Finish:
1.  UC-Santa Barbara: Bob Williams just keeps putting solid teams out there.  Alan Williams averaged a double-double last year and is the best player in the league.  Three additional returning starters could not only place this team in the NCAAs, but make them a very dangerous out.
2.  UC-Irvine: Luke Nelson was Freshman of the Year in the Big West last season.  And you can never count out a team with 7-6, 290 pound Mamadou Ndiaye in the middle.
3.  UC-Davis: Corey Hawkins led the team last season, which now sees the returns from injury of Josh Ritchart and J.T. Adenrele.  The depth and experience here could make them a surprise contender.
4.  Cal State-Northridge: Stephen Hicks, Stephen Maxwell and Seton Hall transfer Kevin Johnson give the Matadors one of the conference’s top frontcourts, but they have holes in the backcourt to fill.
5.  Long Beach State: Almost the opposite problem of Northridge, as Michael Caffey, Tyler Lamb and A.J. Spencer lead a deep backcourt, but the loss of Dan Jennings has left big holes down low.
6.  Cal State-Fullerton: Team needs its newcomers and transfers to step up and help senior guard Alex Harris if they want any chance to improve from last season’s 20 losses.
7.  Cal Poly: Despite the postseason run, this was still a 20 loss team last season . . . and three of the starters from that team are gone now.
8.  UC-Riverside: Taylor Johns is a double-double threat down low, and the Highlanders return four starters, but it will still be a challenge to just qualify for the Big West tournament.
9.  Hawai’i: The loss of three starters will be difficult to make up for, though returnees Isaac Fotu and Garret Nevels will help keep them in games.  UPDATE: To make matters worse, head coach Gib Arnold was relieved of duties on October 28 as the program faces an NCAA investigation.  UPDATE #2: As part of the investigation Fotu is now ineligible as well.  With this turmoil, we have dropped our prediction for the Rainbow Warriors down to a last place finish.

 

Posted in Conference Preview, News and Notes | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on CONFERENCE PREVIEW: BIG WEST

CONFERENCE PREVIEW: BIG SOUTH

Posted on October 27, 2014 by Chad

In terms of competitive balance, the Big South, at least on paper, could be one of the most exciting conferences to watch this season.  With VMI (who made a run all the way to the CIT semifinals last year) off to join the Southern Conference this season, the Big South will drop its divisional format as it now has 11 members.  Returning this season, and among the league favorites, are defending regular season champion High Point (NIT last season) and defending conference tournament champion Coastal Carolina (Round of 64 loss to Virginia last season).  The preseason pick to win the league, however, is the lone additional returning postseason participant, Radford.  The Highlanders played in the CBI last year, and even picked up a road win there over Oregon State.

Radford returns virtually everyone off of a team that won 22 games last season.  They are led by Javonte Green who figures to again be among the leading scorers in the Big South.  Coastal Carolina also brings most of its NCAA tournament team back, and again gets the added benefit of being the predetermined host of the conference tournament.  High Point is led by John Brown, a player capable of starring at almost any program in the country.  Every other significant contributor is back as well this season for the Panthers.  UNC-Asheville, Winthrop and Gardner-Webb also return deep teams with proven leaders.  While an at-large bid would be a complete shock in this conference, these teams could be very dangerous both in the non-conference part of the season as well as in postseason play this year.

Predicted Order of Finish:
1.  Radford: With everyone returning, and pieces such as R.J. Price and Ya Ya Anderson to complement Green, this could be a very strong season for the Highlanders
2.  Coastal Carolina: Elijah Wilson, Warren Gillis and Josh Cameron are all returning double digit scorers.  Badou Diagne could step up and become a big time contributor as well
3.  High Point:  Five returning starters, including Devante Wallace and Adam Weary in addition to Brown, should have the Panthers right in contention for another league title
4.  UNC-Asheville: Andrew Rooney averaged over 20 points per game, and Will Weeks returns from a knee injury down low.  The combination of these two alone could make this a surprise team
5.  Winthrop: The Eagles will be fun to watch with four returning starters on a team that loves to play a fast tempo, high scoring style
6.  Gardner-Webb: Jerome Hill and Tyler Strange should both post good numbers, but the Runnin’ Bulldogs will need to find other players to help them
7.  Presbyterian: Another team with all five starters back including Jordan Downing who averaged over 20 points per game, but the Blue Hose need to play much better defense to improve after a 26 loss season
8.  Campbell: A few good pieces with the likes of Reco McCarter and D.J. Mason, but does not appear strong enough to contend with the top teams
9.  Charleston Southern: A solid backcourt with Arlon Harper and Saah Nimley, but team does not appear to have much up front at all
10.  Liberty: Three best players are gone from a 21 loss team, could be another long season
11.  Longwood: A mass exodus by way of transfer crushed the Lancers in the offseason, and they will now be lucky to avoid the conference basement

Posted in Conference Preview, News and Notes | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on CONFERENCE PREVIEW: BIG SOUTH

CONFERENCE PREVIEW: BIG SKY

Posted on October 26, 2014 by Chad

The Big Sky Conference welcomes back Idaho this season, expanding to 12 members.  It also says goodbye — to Montana head coach Wayne Tinkle who took the job at Oregon State.  The Grizzlies also lost two of their top three scorers from last season’s team and look to be taking a step back in the conference standings after battling Weber State for the top spot in the conference the last few seasons.  Weber State, who won the conference regular season and tournament titles last season before losing to Arizona in the Round of 64, looks to be among the favorites this season again.  The Big Sky’s three other postseason participants from last season, North Dakota, Northern Colorado and Portland State (all in the CIT) may slide back this season as well while a few other schools look to take a step up in the standings.

Our preseason pick to win the Big Sky is the Eastern Washington Eagles.  The Eagles are led by one of the conference’s best players in Tyler Harvey, who averaged over 21 points per game last season.  They also have a ton of pieces around him, including three other returning double digit scorers and a deep bench.  In addition to being challenged by defending champion Weber State, Northern Arizona and Sacramento State may both also contend for the conference’s top spot.

While Idaho does not appear to be a team that will factor into the conference’s title race, the expansion of the Big Sky to 12 teams has led to a change in the conference tournament.  The Big Sky has expanded its conference tournament field, starting this year, from 7 teams to 8.  The regular season champion will continue to host the tournament, though the conference will no longer re-seed in the semifinal round.  In other words, the only advantage left to the regular season champion is the ability to host the tournament games (still a huge advantage).  They will, however, no longer get a bye into the semifinals and get the right to face the lowest seeded quarterfinal winner.

Predicted Order of Finish:
1.  Eastern Washington: Harvey is going to score a ton, but will be helped by Venky Jois, Parker Kelly, Drew Brandon, Ognjen Milijokiv and more.
2.  Weber State: Joel Bolomboy is a big time talent, and may be the best frontcourt player in the conference.  There are enough other pieces here to have a chance at a repeat.
3.  Northern Arizona: Quinton Upshur and Kris Yanku lead a deep team.  Keep an eye on 7-1 Geoffrey Frid down low too.
4.  Sacramento State: Everyone returns from a team that was fun and exciting to watch last season.  This could be one of the Hornets’ best seasons ever.
5.  Portland State: Iziahiah Sweeney is a freshmen with huge potential.  If he is ready to play, when added to the likes of Gary Winston and DaShaun Wiggins, this team could be dangerous.
6.  North Dakota: Their best players from last season are all gone, but the addition of transfer Estan Tyler (UMKC’s top scorer two years ago) will help the rebuild process.
7.  Montana: Jordan Gregory is the only significant returnee as the post-Wayne Tinkle era begins.
8.  Northern Colorado: Tevin Svihovec and Tim Huskisson will need to lead the way for this team to compete.
9.  Idaho State: Chris Hansen and Jeffrey Solarin will score points, but the Bengals will have to rely on a freshman point guard this year.
10.  Idaho: With Stephen Madison gone, this could be a long first season back in the Big Sky for the Vandals.
11.  Montana State: Brian Fish takes over as the new head coach, but he needs to rebuild this program from the ground up.
12.  Southern Utah: The good news is that the entire starting lineup is back.  The bad news is this starting lineup only led them to two wins last season and does not appear to be ready to win many more than that this year.

Posted in Conference Preview, News and Notes | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on CONFERENCE PREVIEW: BIG SKY