Small Conference Game of the Day – February 21

Tonight we head out west again to sunny California as the Saint Mary’s Gaels play host to the BYU Cougars at 11:00 PM Eastern on ESPN2.  While Gonzaga has dominated the WCC so far this season, the Gaels have a profile that is setting up to be one of the more controversial ones come Selection Sunday.  Heading into tonight’s game, St. Mary’s is 22-5 with an RPI of 52 and a SOS of 155.  If they win out until the WCC finals, they would theoretically be 27-6, a record that will draw a ton of attention.

The Gaels main problem is their lack of marquee wins.  Their three best wins at the moment are at BYU, at Santa Clara and a home win over Harvard.  Only Harvard is a probable tournament team from that group, and that is only because they are favored to win the Ivy League automatic bid.  St. Mary’s also has two questionable losses, neutral court defeats at the hands of Pacific and Georgia Tech, though both of those came way back in November.

This week is a huge one for St. Mary’s.  While BYU does not appear to be an at-large caliber team, beating them tonight would give the Gaels a season sweep of a top 100 team.  Then, on Saturday, they host RPI 47 Creighton in the BracketBusters.  A win over the BlueJays would be St. Mary’s first over a solid at-large caliber team all season, and is probably critical to their at-large chances.  After this week, the Gaels have a trip to Pepperdine and a home game against Santa Clara left on their schedule, followed by the WCC tournament where they should receive the #2 seed and a bye into the semifinals.  Any slip-up could be fatal at this point, especially given that their only chance for a true high-level victory would be a potential West Coast Conference title game against the zags…and obviously if they were to win that they would be in with the automatic bid.

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Small Conference Game of the Day – February 20

Today we return to the Colonial Athletic Association for a 7:00 PM Eastern tip-off featuring Northeastern at James Madison.  The Northeastern Huskies have rolled through conference play so far this season, posting a 12-3 conference record.  James Madison currently sits tied for second with Towson at 10-5, though Towson in ineligible for the conference tournament and postseason play due to an APR ban.  Delaware is tied with both teams in the loss column as well, with a conference mark of 9-5.

A win for the Huskies tonight will clinch at least a tie for the CAA regular season title.  They can clinch the #1 seed in the conference tournament as well with a win tonight and a Delaware loss tomorrow to Drexel.  The top seed in the CAA tournament has extra meaning this year as only 7 teams are eligible, meaning the top seed will receive a bye into the semifinals.  Northeastern is looking for its first NCAA tournament bid since 1991, and at this point it appears they are going to have the easiest path through the CAA tournament available.  If they are unable to get it done in their league tournament, though, it will only be the NIT as their resume is not close to being at-large caliber.

 

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Small Conference Game of the Day – February 19

For today’s game, we turn back to the Big South conference.  While most of the focus in this conference so far this season has been on the battle between Charleston Southern and UNC-Asheville in the South Division, the High Point Panthers have very slowly put together a solid 10-3 conference mark to lead the North Division and be on pace for a top seed in the conference tournament.

Tonight, High Point travels to VMI for at 7:00 PM Eastern tipoff.  High Point is 15-10m on the season and 10-3 in league play.  They are presently on a six game winning streak.  VMI is 11-13 on the season and 6-6 in conference, good enough for second place behind High Point in the North Division.  A win in tonight’s game by High Point will in fact clinch the North Division title for the Panthers.  This would be the Panthers first ever regular season title since joining the Big South 13 years ago.

High Point is led by Allan Chaney who posted his fifth career double-double last time out, and freshman John Brown who had 17 points in his last game.  VMI is led by D.J. Covington who put up 31 points and 15 boards in a losing effort this past weekend.  A win tonight for the Keydets who let head coach Duggar Baucom tie the school record for most career wins at 116.  It would also continue VMI’s recent success against High Point at the Keydets have won 7 of their last 8 matchups, with only the earlier meeting this season in High Point, NC going the Panthers way.

 

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David Grigg’s S Curve/Seed List for Monday, Feb 18th

-The projected conference champions are teams that are either currently in first place, or tied for it via the loss column. They are in ALL CAPS.

-I’m not necessarily trying to guess the committee, but I’m using the criteria the committee uses to select and seed the teams as if I were a committee member.

-The teams are not bracketed. I know it is fun to see them in the bracketed format, but I don’t think it is any more revealing than simply seeing their ranking on the seed list. If anything, it is less precise since a good number of teams are moved up or down a seed line in order to meet the bracketing rules and/or to keep them close to home.

-The locations of the teams seeded #4 or better are in parenthesis, as are the regional locations for the #1 seeds.

There are more notes below the seed list…..

1. MIAMI, FL (Austin, Arlington)
2. MICHIGAN STATE (Auburn Hills, Indianapolis)
3. Indiana (Dayton, Washington DC)
4. GONZAGA (San Jose, Los Angeles)
5. FLORIDA (Austin)
6. SYRACUSE (Philadelphia)
7. Duke (Philadelphia)
8. Michigan (Auburn Hills)
9. KANSAS (Kansas City)
10. Arizona (Salt Lake)
11. Wisconsin (Dayton)
12. Butler (Lexington)
13. Louisville (Lexington)
14. Georgetown (San Jose)
15. Oklahoma State (Kansas City)
16. NEW MEXICO (Salt Lake)
17. Kansas State
18. Marquette
19. Colorado State
20. OREGON
21. San Diego State
22. Pittsburgh
23. Minnesota
24. VCU
25. Ohio State
26. Illinois
27. Oklahoma
28. WICHITA STATE
29. Cincinnati
30. Ucla
31. Saint Louis
32. Unlv
33. Notre Dame
34. Colorado
35. NC State
36. MEMPHIS
37. North Carolina
38. La Salle
39. Creighton
40. Charlotte
41. Boise State
42. Missouri
43. BELMONT
44. BUCKNELL
45. MIDDLE TENNESSEE
46. Temple
47. Villanova
48. Ole Miss
49. AKRON
50. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
51. Arizona State
52. Virginia
53. Saint Mary’s
54. LOUISIANA TECH
55. MONTANA
56. STEPHEN F AUSTIN.
57. DAVIDSON
58. MERCER
59. VALPARAISO
60. NORTHEASTERN
61. HARVARD
62. LONG BEACH
63. NIAGARA
64. STONY BROOK
65. BRYANT
66. CHARLESTON SOUTHERN
67. NORFOLK STATE
68. SOUTHERN

 

NOTES

NEXT IN LINE: Iowa, Wyoming, Maryland, California, Baylor, Saint John’s, Southern Miss, Indiana State, UMass, Stanford, Air Force, Kentucky, Iowa State, Eastern Kentucky

-Kentucky is way out of my bracket. I barely had them in it before, and without Noel, they appear to have gone from being a bubble team to being a team that’s way outside the field. They are currently out (IMHO, they’re way out) and must play their way back in.

-I have Duke much lower than I think the real committee will. The reason is they have no true road wins against anyone that is solidly in the field. Of the road wins they do have, they struggled to beat weak teams such as Wake Forest and Boston College. I know that it is hard to win on the road, especially against tournament teams, but every single team I have ahead of them has managed to do it. Even their neutral floor wins against Louisville, Minnesota and VCU are good, but they don’t necessarily scream #1 seed to me.

-I really like how Saint Louis and Colorado State are playing, and expect them to be higher on Selection Sunday than where I currently have them. They deserve more recognition than what they’re getting.

-I think Indiana State has played their way out. Five sub 100 losses is a lot to overcome. I think they’ll need to win the Missouri Valley Tournament.

-Memphis doesn’t have a lot of big wins, but they do have a few decent ones.

-Temple is still impossible to place. Their last five games have been decided by just one point.

-I don’t know if the committee will like Belmont or Bucknell as much as I do, especially with Belmont losing earlier in the week, but I can’t seem to get them any lower in my rankings. I just feel they’re better than all the teams I have behind them.

 

For more, listen to our podcast on Crimson Cast Linked below…

http://www.crimsoncast.com/2013/02/bracket-racket-02-17-13/

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Small Conference Game of the Day – February 18

First, apologies for not posting an SCGD yesterday.  However, we are back in the swing of things tonight with a few good games.  The rematch between Bucknell and Lehigh in the Patriot League (7:00 PM Eastern, CBS-Sports Network) is clearly the top game on the calendar tonight for small conference teams.  However, as we had the first matchup of these two teams as the SCGD earlier this season, I am going to instead go with a battle in the MEAC as today’s pick.

At 7:00 PM Eastern tonight (ESPNU coverage), Norfolk State is on the road to take on Hampton.  The Spartans are one of six remaining teams that are undefeated in their conference (joining Miami, Memphis, Akron, Gonzaga and Louisiana Tech).  The Spartans were picked seventh in the conference pre-season, making their 11-0 record in league play to date even more impressive.  They hold a one game lead over North Carolina Central, who lost their first game over the weekend.  Due to a scheduling quirk in the 13 team MEAC, Norfolk and NCCU do not meet during the regular season.

As for their opponent tonight, the Hampton Pirates sit at 7-3 in the MEAC, solidly in fourth place.  Hampton features the defending MEAC player of the week in Du’Vaughn Maxwell, who scored 29 points and 10 rebounds against Delaware State last week.  Tonight may be the best chance for anyone to hand Norfolk State a regular season loss.  The Spartans only have one road game left after tonight, this weekend’s contest at fifth place Delaware State.  They will then end the regular season with three straight home games against the bottom of the league.

One final note about tonight’s game:  Hampton is having a Blue-Out…so if you don’t want to see all that blue in the stands, you may be better off watching Bucknell-Lehigh after all.

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Field of 68 – February 17

Here is my Field of 68, through games of February 17, broken down by conference.  Note that the winner of the conference is the team that I feel is the best team in the conference, which may at times not be the first place team.

America East (1): Stony Brook
ACC (6): Miami, North Carolina State, Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland
Atlantic Sun (1): Mercer
Atlantic Ten (4): Butler, Virginia Commonwealth, La Salle, Saint Louis
Big East (8): Syracuse, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Cincinnati, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Villanova
Big Sky (1): Montana
Big South (1): Charleston Southern
Big Ten (8): Michigan, Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois, Iowa
Big Twelve (5): Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Iowa State
Big West (1): Long Beach State
Colonial (1): Northeastern
Conference USA (1): Memphis
Horizon (1): Detroit
Ivy (1): Harvard
Metro Atlantic (1): Loyola
MAC (1): Akron
MEAC (1): Norfolk State
Missouri Valley (2): Creighton, Wichita State
Mountain West (4): New Mexico, UNLV, Colorado State, San Diego State
Northeast (1): Robert Morris
Ohio Valley (1): Belmont
Pac 12 (5): Oregon, Arizona, UCLA, Colorado, California
Patriot (1): Bucknell
SEC (3): Florida, Ole Miss, Missouri
Southern (1): Davidson
Southland (1): Northwestern State
SWAC (1): Southern
Summit (1): South Dakota State
Sun Belt (1): Middle Tennessee
West Coast (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary’s
WAC (1): Louisiana Tech

Last four in: Maryland, Iowa State, Ole Miss, St Mary’s
First four out: Boise State, Arizona State, Arkansas, Northern Iowa
Others considered: Baylor, Southern Miss, Ohio U, Indiana State, Wyoming, Alabama, Kentucky, Tennessee, Texas A&M

A few notes about this week’s field:

This week saw more than the usual number of changes for my predictions for one bid conferences.  As the season gets later and team’s schedules begin to balance out more, this is not too much of a shock.  Some of the changes this week include Stony Brook moving back on top in the America East, Mercer (who will host the A-Sun tourney) moving on top of its league, Detroit overtaking Valpo in the Horizon, and Northwestern State (a very fun team to watch play) now being my pick in the Southland despite Stephen F Austin’s gaudy record — a record built on an excessive number of games against weak competition and non-Division I foes.  Finally, while I think Norfolk State is the third best team in the MEAC (behind Savannah State and NC Central), I had to give them the nod as one of a very small group of teams left undefeated in their leagues.

As for the major conferences, the Big East and Big Ten both expanded out to 8 teams this week as Villanova and Iowa both snuck into the field.  I also slipped Maryland in from the ACC, but I am not a fan of their profile, even with the win over Duke.  If they don’t keep winning, I do not expect them to stay.

The SEC only had one team that made it inn on my initial attempt to fill the field, and I am not very happy about having to put Ole Miss in.  On the other hand, both Arkansas and even Tennessee have caught my attention.  The Razorbacks are slowly making a late season run — if it continues they may find a way into the field.

In the Missouri Valley, Indiana State had a disastrous week that almost knocked them off the board entirely (they barely clung on to make the Others Considered list).  However, Northern Iowa, much like Arkansas, is starting to get my attention for a possible bid.  As with everyone else on the bubble, what these teams do down the stretch will clear things up.

Finally, here is my S-Curve of the 68 teams:

1. Indiana
2. Miami
3. Florida
4. Gonzaga
5. Duke
6. Michigan State
7. Michigan
8. Syracuse
9. Louisville
10. Kansas
11. Arizona
12. Georgetown
13. Kansas State
14. Wisconsin
15. New Mexico
16. Oklahoma State
17. Marquette
18. Pittsburgh
19. VCU
20. Colorado State
21. Oregon
22. Saint Louis
23. Ohio State
24. Butler
25. Memphis
26. Notre Dame
27. Minnesota
28. Illinois
29. UCLA
30. San Diego State
31. Wichita State
32. La Salle
33. Virginia
34. North Carolina State
35. UNLV
36. Cincinnati
37. Belmont
38. Colorado
39. North Carolina
40. Missouri
41. Oklahoma
42. Akron
43. Creighton
44. Villanova
45. California
46. Iowa
47. Iowa State
48. St. Mary’s
49. South Dakota State
50. Middle Tennessee
51. Maryland
52. Ole Miss
53. Louisiana Tech
54. Montana
55. Detroit
56. Harvard
57. Bucknell
58. Davidson
59. Northeastern
60. Long Beach State
61. Loyola
62. Northwestern State
63. Stony Brook
64. Mercer
65. Charleston Southern
66. Robert Morris
67. Southern
68. Norfolk State

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