Hoops HD

NEWS AND NOTES:

-For the latest HOOPS HD REPORT Video Podcast – CLICK HERE

-For John Stalica’s UTR Game of the Day – CLICK HERE

-Bill Self decided to leave early (he got ejected) last night during Kansas’s game at Texas Tech, and I can’t say I blame him. It wasn’t a good game, and his team was getting blown into the sun. The final score was 79-50. It was yet another very unimpressive road performance by Kansas, who may be really good, but who doesn’t look like a #1 seed, and in my opinion shouldn’t be on either the 1 or the 2 line with just two true road wins and a lot of bad road showings. Having said that, Texas Tech played an outstanding game, so props to them!

-And…that’s really it! It was a quiet night.

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HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:

-MARQUETTE AT BUTLER (Big East). This is a massive game for the Bulldogs, who have been playing really well lately. They’ve won four out of their last five with a win at Creighton in that stretch and the only loss being on the road to UConn. They’re inside our bubble, but I think that we will all start to value them a lot more if they can add this win to an already pretty impressive profile. As for Marquette, they are looking like a solid protected seed and may even be in play for a #1 seed if they can finish the season strong.

-NORTH CAROLINA AT SYRACUSE (ACC). UNC really had to sweat out Miami FL in their last game, which was a bit of a surprise even though it was a road game, but they were still able to get the win and are still in play for a #1 seed . They’ve got another winnable conference road game tonight.

-MICHIGAN AT ILLINOIS (Big Ten). Illinois continues to play well and continues to climb the seedlist. They should be able to hold serve at home in this one without too much trouble.

-IOWA STATE AT CINCINNATI (Big 12). Iowa State is looking more and more like a solid protected seed as they continue to rack up impressive wins. They are 3-3 on the road, and it won’t be easy to get this one because Cincinnati is right on the bubble and has shown they can play well against strong opponents. Whereas Iowa State is trying to land a protected seed, Cincinnati is just trying to make the field, so this is a very big game for them.

-DUQUESNE AT DAYTON (Atlantic Ten). Dayton is coming off a rare loss to VCU and is looking to bounce back. It may be too late for them to earn a protected seed, but they’ll still be well positioned in the field if they win out, which they are good enough to do.

-PITTSBURGH AT VIRGINIA (ACC). Virginia is red hot right now, and while Pitt has shown that they do have a pulse, it’s still a game that Virginia should be able to win at home. Believe it or not the Hoos are just one game back of 1st place in the ACC standings right now.

-ILLINOIS STATE AT INDIANA STATE (Missouri Valley). Indiana State barely escaped over the weekend, but we still have them inside our bubble and we believe they will stay there so long as they keep holding serve.

-SAINT JOHN’S AT PROVIDENCE (Big East). This game is slightly bubblicious. It’s a game that both teams really need. The Johnnies have been on a bit of a tailspin, and Providence seems like they’ve been straddling the bubble for the entire season. This has a pivotal feel to it for both teams.

-TEXAS A&M AT VANDERBILT (SEC). TAMU is inside our bubble, but isn’t safe enough to where they can afford too many losses to teams that are nowhere near the bubble. Despite this being a road game, it’s one they really can’t afford to lose.

-DRAKE AT EVANSVILLE (Missouri Valley). It’s a long shot for Drake, but they should at least get a serious look from the committee if they’re able to win out.

-LSU AT FLORIDA (SEC). Florida is inside the bubble and should stay there so long as they hold serve. This is a home game against a non-tournament team, so it’s one they need to win.

-GEORGETOWN AT CREIGHTON (Big East). This isn’t a buy game for the Bluejays, but it might as well be. They need to hold serve in this one.

-OHIO STATE AT WISCONSIN (Big Ten). The Badgers are in a huge tailspin right now with four striaght losses. They are falling down the seedlist and need to pull themselves out of it. This is a winnable home game, and while it won’t do much for their profile if they win it, it will at least stop it from continuing to digress.

-OKLAHOMA AT BAYLOR (Big 12). Baylor is solidly in the field and is still in play for a protected seed. Oklahoma is coming off a feel-good win against rival Oklahoma State, but while they got the win it was a struggle at home against a non-tournament caliber team. They’ve got a really tough test tonight. A win could REALLY boost the Sooners’ resume, but it won’t be easy.

-OLE MISS AT KENTUCKY (SEC). Kentucky is has lost three straight at home and the grumblings are starting to get louder and louder. They need this win for their mental health as much as anything else. Ole Miss is right on the bubble, and this is a huge opportunity for them to help them land on the right side of it.

-UCF AT BYU (Big 12). BYU is in the rankings, and relatively safely in the field right now barring a complete plane crash between now and the end. They should be able to hold serve in this one against a UCF team that’s on the outside looking in, but that has shown us at times they can play at a high level, and who we’ll need to look at more closely if they can pull of a few wins like this.

-COLORADO STATE AT SAN DIEGO STATE (Mountain West). Every game in the Mountain West seems to be a showcase this year (regardless of what our colleague Joby Fortson thinks!), and this is yet another big game between two teams that are looking to build up their resumes and climb the seedlist. The standings are logjammed and every game has a pivotal feel to it. Colorado State has won four straight, and San Diego State is trying to bounce back after an overtime loss to Nevada.

-NEW MEXICO AT NEVADA (Mountain West). These two teams are going in opposite directions. Nevada has won three in a row, and the last two of those were HUGE. New Mexico has gone from looking like the best team in the league to one that will now struggle just to get inside the field, and they will likely struggle on the road tonight.

It was Chad’s turn to do the Staff Bracket this week, and below is his current field through all game of Sunday, February 11. This is how he believes the field currently should stand as of this date. Below the bracket are Chad’s notes on the field and comments and reactions to it from other members of the HoopsHD Staff.

CHAD’S NOTES:

• The top three teams in the field seem to be almost locked in at this point; however, the fourth one seed is a battle between five or six teams. I am going with Arizona, a team with seven Quad 1 wins, 6 of which were away from home. I understand that there are a couple of head-scratching losses, but the profile is just looking stronger right now than the other top contenders.
• Two weeks ago, Wisconsin was in play for a 1 seed. Today, the Badgers are barely a top 4 seed and have, in my opinion, dropped below conference-mate Illinois in the bracket. Four straight losses, two of which were to teams not anywhere near the bracket (Michigan and Rutgers) will do that. Plus, the 22-point losing margin against the Scarlet Knights was . . . well . . . flat out BAD.
• Clemson is flying back up my seed list and barely missed the 4 line. That’s what winning at North Carolina and following it up with a solid road win at Syracuse will do.
• Utah fell a ton this week after back-to-back home losses. The Utes played great in their home loss to Arizona, but didn’t bother showing up against a pretty weak Arizona State team. Utah is not a lock to make the field by any means after this week.
• Ole Miss also fell following a pair of losses this week. Losing to Auburn and at South Carolina is no crime, but the Rebels only have three wins against my field, and none against a team in the top half of it Their non-conference Strength of Schedule in the 300’s doesn’t help either.
• Gonzaga is back in the field as an at-large team. That is what winning at Kentucky can do for a team without much in terms of bad losses. However, the Zags have no margin for error and probably cannot afford another loss until the WCC finals if they want an at-large bid. This includes having to win at St. Mary’s to end the regular season, because I think it will be very hard for this team to get in if they end up going 0-3 against the Gaels.
• My top four teams out, in order, were Memphis, Providence, Cincinnati and Nevada. Memphis may finally have things back on track after their dominant win Sunday over Tulane and could quickly move right back into the bracket. Also considered were the following: Kansas State, Colorado, Villanova, Wake Forest, UCF, Pittsburgh, Drake, Oregon, Miami, Richmond, Minnesota, James Madison, Princeton and Caitlin Clark.
• As a final note, I don’t actually look at the matchups until after the bracket is built, and a few great first round matchups were totally coincidence. Kentucky vs Michigan State would be a monster 7-10 game. Maybe just as fun, there are a pair of matchups of coaches against their former schools — Akron’s John Groce getting Illinois and Virginia’s Tony Bennett getting Washington State.

STAFF COMMENTS

COMMENTS FROM STALICA:

– I would listen to arguments that teams like Duke and Clemson are slightly ahead of Alabama and Auburn at this stage. Clemson was in a slump in a weaker ACC, but as Chad noted a win at North Carolina really got them back on track. Also keep in mind that Clemson won at Alabama back in November should those teams get closer together on the seed list.

– Kentucky is plummeting fast on this list. The last time they lost 3 straight home games, Adolph Rupp was still coaching and Rupp Arena hadn’t been built yet. They’ll probably win their next two games (at home against Ole Miss and at Auburn) just to annoy me.

– Joby has to be loving the fact that the Mountain West is starting to cannibalize itself. Yet I couldn’t help but notice that the team benefitting the most from quality wins against the MW is – Saint Mary’s. The Gaels are dominating the WCC and are also benefitting from Gonzaga’s wakeup call at Kentucky.

– I think Seton Hall is safer than St. John’s when it comes to teams near the cut line, but the Pirates didn’t help their cause with a blowout loss at Villanova this weekend. If they lose at home against Xavier, then we can start the discussion about whether or not they should be in. St. John’s is running out of chances for quality wins, and they could very well torpedo their chances if they stumble against their remaining 3 buy game wins against Georgetown/DePaul.

– As far as UTR teams go, Morehead State is likely the first team that will clinch their regular season crown in conference play. Also keep in mind that they will be looking to avenge an early exit in the OVC Tournament last year; don’t expect the Eagles to hit the snooze button should they clinch the #1 seed early on. (Now if only they remember to leave their lights on the rest of the way…)

COMMENTS FROM DAVID GRIGGS:

-Blind resume, 19-5 on the year, 10-3 in a Power Conference, just one loss outside of quads 1 and 2, winners of 8 straight, including 4 on the road, and a big win at Clemson in that stretch. Does this sound like a #9 seed to you?? Well, Chad seems to think so. To be fair, Virginia has kind of snuck up on everyone, but HOLY CRAP are they on fire right now!! I think EVERYONE is undervaluing them.

-I do like Wazzu, and am happy Chad has them inside his bubble, but I’m not sure I like them so much that I think they belong in the top half of the bracket, and I sure as hell don’t think they’re better than Virginia!

-Mississippi State has finally gotten a road win, and when you look at some of their strong neutral floor wins I am now to a point to where I can stomach them being in the field. An 11 seed actually sounds about right. Now, they still need some more road wins in order to stay there, but for now that seems about right.

-I also really like how Butler is playing. They are another team that a lot of people seem like they’ve been slow to warm up to. They have a big week this week and we’ll see where they land next week.

For today’s HOOPS HD DAILY RUNDOWN – CLICK HERE

We are only 5 weeks away from Selection Sunday as we continue to make our NCAA tourney predictions. HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel correctly picked 67 of the 68 teams that made the 2023 tourney with 65 of his 67 within 1 spot of their actual seed, including 53 right on the money. He will spend the upcoming months predicting which 68 teams will hear their names called on March 17th. See below for his list of who would make the cut if they picked the field today and if you agree or disagree then feel free to tweet us. To see how he stacks up with other websites (ranked 11th out of 174 entries over the past 5 years), check out: www.bracketmatrix.com

SEED: TEAM (CONFERENCE)
1: Purdue (Big 10)
1: Connecticut (Big East)
1: Houston (Big 12)
1: Arizona (Pac-12)

2: North Carolina (ACC)
2: Kansas (Big 12)
2: Marquette (Big East)
2: Tennessee (SEC)

3: Iowa State (Big 12)
3: Alabama (SEC)
3: Baylor (Big 12)
3: Duke (ACC)

4: Wisconsin (Big 10)
4: Auburn (SEC)
4: Illinois (Big 10)
4: Creighton (Big East)

5: Dayton (A-10)
5: South Carolina (SEC)
5: BYU (Big 12)
5: San Diego State (MWC)

6: Oklahoma (Big 12)
6: Clemson (ACC)
6: Kentucky (SEC)
6: Colorado State (MWC)

7: Utah State (MWC)
7: FAU (AAC)
7: Texas Tech (Big 12)
7: St. Mary’s (WCC)

8: New Mexico (MWC)
8: TCU (Big 12)
8: Michigan State (Big 10)
8: Texas (Big 12)

9: Utah (Pac-12)
9: Boise State (MWC)
9: Virginia (ACC)
9: Northwestern (Big 10)

10: Texas A&M (SEC)
10: Indiana State (MVC)
10: Nebraska (Big 10)
10: Butler (Big East)

11: Florida (SEC)
11: Mississippi (SEC)
11: Washington State (Pac-12)
11: Mississippi State (SEC)
11: St. John’s (Big East)
11: Gonzaga (WCC)

12: Seton Hall (Big East)
12: Grand Canyon (WAC)
12: McNeese State (Southland)
12: Appalachian State (Sun Belt)

13: UC-Irvine (Big West)
13: Samford (SoCon)
13: Yale (Ivy)
13: Akron (MAC)

14: Louisiana Tech (C-USA)
14: UNC-Wilmington (CAA)
14: Vermont (America East)
14: Morehead State (OVC)

15: High Point (Big South)
15: Eastern Washington (Big Sky)
15: Colgate (Patriot)
15: Quinnipiac (MAAC)

16: Green Bay (Horizon)
16: South Dakota State (Summit)
16: Eastern Kentucky (Atlantic Sun)
16: Norfolk State (MEAC)
16: Southern (SWAC)
16: Merrimack (NEC)

1ST 4 OUT
Cincinnati (Big 12)
Colorado (Pac-12)
Nevada (MWC)
Providence (Big East)