-I believe 10 teams have separated themselves from the pack. My 1 and 2 seeds plus Houston and Nebraska. These teams are playing at a very high level but it’s early January so it will be interesting if I feel this way when we enter March.
Under the radar teams I strongly believe in at this time:
St. Louis UNC-Wilmington Murray State Oakland Yale Miami (OH)
-A team I believe most are still sleeping on this year and I feel is for real is the Miami Hurricanes. Coach Lucas has completed turned this roster over and has the ‘Canes playing smart basketball on offense and tough defense. Look for this squad to spend the next two months working on their seed.
-A team I see in others brackets that is not close in my mind, the LSU Tiger. A soft non conference schedule led to a sweet win/loss record but I’m thinking the tough conference games will show us that these Tigers do not belong in the bracket.
-It’s conference time in college hoops, where we separate the contenders from the pretenders.
STAFF COMMENTS:
From Chad:
I don’t have Dorman’s notes yet so I am not sure how he is going to explain a few things, but I have pretty much no complaints at all about the entire top half of his bracket. After the 8 line, I see a few teams that I feel do not deserve to be in the field right now.
Texas A&M: This team has only beaten two teams that I even believe belong in the discussion — a road win at Auburn (see below) and a home win over an LSU team that is right on the bubble. I can’t say choosing them was a mistake, but having them all the way up on the 8 line does not cut it for me.
Auburn: The Tigers are only 9-6 and have no true road wins yet. A neutral court win over a St John’s team that is barely in the field right now is their only notable win away from home — and they don’t have much on their home resume either. I can see putting a 9-6 team in with the right resume, but this team is 3-6 against the top three tiers — that is a non-starter for me.
UCLA: Even worse than A&M and Auburn, the Bruins have not beaten anyone in the at-large discussion. I just do not see it at all.
VCU: I have to assume this is a typo and he meant Saint Louis. The Billikens slot in perfectly on the 9 line as the A-10 auto bid winner.
I am not saying that there are many great choices to replace his picks — but teams like LSU, Oklahoma State, Missouri and even Stanford have, in my opinion, better resumes at the moment.
From Stalica:
I think Dorman got a team like Villanova correct; the win at Seton Hall is now a little offset with the home loss to Creighton. I wish I could have seen Dorman’s top 4 out to see how close Creighton is to his field.
I’m starting to join the Griggs camp on Kentucky. Losing at Alabama was forgivable (especially if you’re a fan of the ELO Chess concept). Losing at home to Missouri is not forgivable. I don’t think the Tigers are quite in the field yet, but they took a giant leap forward.
Would the Miami Redhawks be above or below his First Four? After a double-digit win at Toledo, there’s a great chance they’ll be a Top 25 team sooner or later. While their strength of schedule is atrocious, I also think it’s a byproduct of teams ducking Miami given the number of true road games scheduled in the noncon part of the schedule.
The exclusion of USC, LSU and Saint Louis is eye opening here. While winning last night at Minnesota isn’t a quality win in and of itself, it’s more than teams like Indiana and Iowa managed.
But upon further review, I do see one wrinkle that Dorman threw in the bracket – he has Dayton winning the A-10 as the autobid winner (seeing as how they’re in the First Four). Under this scenario, I can only assume that he had a Freudian slip and meant to put in Saint Louis instead of VCU. The Rams aren’t anywhere close to being safely in the field yet.
Posted inBracketology, News and Notes|Comments Off on Hoops HD Staff Bracket Projection (David Dorman) – Jan 9th
After a couple of days that were absolutely slammed with big games, very little happened yesterday in terms of games that will likely impact the bubble and board.
-Santa Clara hung with Gonzaga for about 25 minutes before the Zags got control and went on to win 89-77.
-Hofstra remains unbeaten in CAA play and has two nice ACC road wins on top of that. They took down Towson on the road yesterday 78-67
-Lipscomb, who we thought was the top team in the ASun, fell on the road at Stetson 91-83 in a game that was a bit of a surprise.
-Vermont was much more fortunate to escape an upset bid at home against Binghamton. The Catamounts trailed by as much as 6 late in the second half before denying Binghamton a pair of shots in the closing seconds and ended up winning by a single point.
-UT Martin came from behind to beat Morehead State on the road, and is once again looking like one of the top teams in the OVC.
-Seattle U, after playing both Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s very tough in back to back games on the road, did not look tough yesterday. They fell 68-55 to Oregon State.
-UC Irvine won the first leg of the Black and Blue Rivalry as they knocked off Long Beach State 74-64 to remain unbeaten in Big West play.
-MIAMI OH AT TOLEDO (MAC). This will be a tough road test for Miami. It’s a game they should win, but it’s also one of the tougher games they’ve had to play up to this point. Can they stay unbeaten?
-USC @ Minnesota (Big Ten) – USC has hit a bit of a skid and could really use this road win to help get things turned back around.
-Connecticut got a much bigger battle than expected from Providence and was actually behind for most of the game. In the final minutes of regulation Providence appeared to be in control, but through a sequence of big and crazy plays UConn got it to overtime and escaped with a 103-98 OT win.
-Alabama stayed within arms reach of Vanderbilt, but Vandy still felt like they were in control and picked up a tough 96-90 win against a Bama team that is not easy to beat. Vandy remains unbeaten and has a case for being the best team in the SEC.
-Saint Louis picked up their biggest and most impresssive win of the year as they went into VCU and won 71-62. It was a road game in a tough environment against a good team, and every time VCU appeared to be building momentum SLU had an answer. They are getting close to the top 25, and they deserve it.
-Clemson survived a late from from SMU to hold on for a 74-70 win at home. The Tigers are now 13-3 on the year and are still perfect in the ACC.
-Belmont bounced back from two tough 1pt losses and got a big win at Northern Iowa 78-65. Northern Iowa is a very tough place to play and if Belmont can play like that the rest of the way they can win the league and be a very tough team in the NCAA Tournament.
-Miami FL is now 13-2 on the year and a perfect 2-0 in the ACC after getting a nice road win against a Wake Forest team that at one time looked to be getting better, but who has now lost three of their last four.
-Stanford went across the country and got a huge road win at Virginia Tech. This follows up a big home win against Louisville, which improves them to 13-3 on the year and makes their resume look a lot better.
-Virginia was less than hospitable against California. The Hoos beat the Golden Bears by 24 on the heels of a win at NC State.
-Missouri won their second straight game as they knocked off Kentucky on the road 73-68. The Tigers are now an impressive 12-3 on the year with back to back wins against Florida and Kentucky. They are looking a lot better than they did just a week ago. The Cats, meanwhile, are running out of lives and need to begin cracking the win column, injuries or no injuries.
-Villanova, who seemed to be cruising, hit a major pothole yesterday with a somewhat surprising 76-72 loss at home to Creighton. Creighton is coming off a loss to Seton Hall where they seemed to have the game wrapped up, but just collapsed down the stretch. The Bluejays still have work to do, but they are also getting better and this win certainly helps.
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HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:
-SANTA CLARA AT GONZAGA (West Coast). I like this Santa Clara team and think they can play their way inside the bubble. An upset win tonight will have everyone else saying the same thing. Having said that, Gonzaga is one of the hardest places to win in the entire country. The Zags are a solid protected seed, they are good enough to win out, and if they do they may have a shot at earning a #1 seed. Still, tonight should be fun and worth staying up for.
-Northwetern @ Michigan State – Michigan State is a solid protected seed level team and should be able to hold serve at home in this one
-Liberty @ Louisiana Tech (Conference USA) – Liberty has looked really good in conference play so far and while this can be a tough road trip it’s still one they should be able to win
-Rutgers @ Illinois (Big Ten) – the Illini should hold serve at home without too much trouble
-Western Kentucky @ New Mexico State (Conference USA) – Western Kentucky has a talented team, but this will be a really tough road game. I’m highlighting this simply because I feel it will be one of the more entertaining games of the day
-Seattle U @ Oregon State (West Coast) – Seattle has had two straight tough losses, but this should be a winnable road game for them
This week’s feature conference is the MEAC, which is entirely upside down with UMES, Coppin State, and South Carolina State all getting wins in their conference openers, and Norfolk State and Howard both struggling in their openers.
From there we run through the other 21 conferences and discuss Miami OH’s undefeated season and debate how good they really are. McNeese had a big come from behind win against Stephen F Austin, but they were definitely challenged and some of the other teams in the Southland are starting to catch up to them. The Big West is off to a wild start with UC Irvine as the only remaining unbeaten team in league play. The Missouri Valley continues to look really strong with as many as five teams that can still win it. We discuss all that and more. And, as we do every week, we close with this week’s UTR Top Ten.
And for all you radio lovers, below is an audio only version of the show…
-Top ranked Michigan got a big scare at Penn State. In fact Penn State had a chance to tie or win on their last possession (which was a little disappointing on the part of Penn State given how well Penn State played up until the last possession), but Michigan escaped. This was the first game for Michigan that wasn’t a complete blowout since mid-November.
-Houston and Texas Tech was once again a battle. The entire game seemed to be played within an 8pt window with neither team building up more than a two possession lead. Houston made some big plays in the final minute and held on for a massive 69-65 win. As for Texas Tech, they battled in one of the toughest places to play in the country and had a chance to win. I think they’re fine.
-TCU had a double digit lead on the road at Kansas in the second half, and had a 9pt lead with just over a minute to go, but fell apart at the end of regulation after having played such a great game up to that point. Kansas somehow got it to overtime and then once they did they took control and escaped with a 104-100 win.
-The game that won the award for most controversial last night was Auburn v Texas A&M. Auburn hit what appeared to be a game winning shot right at the buzzer after having just 0.6 seconds to even get a shot up. The shot initially counted. After they reviewed it, they waived it off and TAMU escaped. Auburn’s fans were understandably not thrilled. It was about as close as it could have been, but I think the referees got it right and here is why. The only real official clock is the one that is at the scorer’s table. Any timekeeper will tell you that the other clocks in the arenas, and by that I mean EVERY arena, will always be a few milliseconds off. They’re never all absolutely precisely synced down to the thousandth (0.001) of a second because they can’t be. The game officially ends when the light comes on behind the backboard. Sometimes this happens while some of the arena clocks still show a tenth of a second remaining. And, that’s what happened. Now, this is normally not that big of an issue because the human eye can’t even tell they’re not in perfect sync down to the thousandth of a second. You can watch ten thousand games and never see an ending where it is that close, but last night’s was.
-Louisville jumped on Duke in the first half, but then went ice cold in the second half. Duke ended up pulling away and got a big 84-73 win on the road.
-Florida, who lost on the road to Missouri over the weekend, bounced back with a big home win over Georgia. This game probably does as much for their confidence and momentum as it does for their profile.
-UCF, after getting a big win against Kansas over the weekend, could not get it done at Oklahoma State and fell on the road 87-76. Oklahoma State is now 13-2 on the year and starting to show some signs of life themselves.
-Saint John’s went on the road and got a win they really needed at Butler 84-70. The Johnnies struggled in the first half but got control of the game in the second half. Butler is in serious trouble and may be neutered for all intents and purposes since the Big East won’t offer many opportunities for the Dawgs to catch up.
-Iowa fell to Minnesota 70-67 after being behind for most of the game in what looked to be a winnable road game for the Hawkeyes. Iowa has a ton of potential, but right now their profile is kind of meh.
-LSU stubbed their toes at home and lost 78-68 to South Carolina. The Tigers actually trailed by 25 at the half.
-New Mexico picked up a nice road win at Colorado State to improve to 12-3 overall and a solid 3-1 in Mountain West play.
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HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:
-SAINT LOUIS AT VCU (Atlantic 10). This is perhaps the toughest test of the year so far for SLU. VCU has dropped four games, but three were close ones against solid opponents. They’ve been looking better and will not be easy to beat at home. SLU actually needs a win like this in order to strengthen their profile, so it’s both a tough test and a big opportunity.
-MIAMI FL AT WAKE FOREST (ACC). I highlight this because right now it just feels like a bubblicious type of game between two teams that have shown they can play well, but who need to strengthen their resumes and who could both really use this win tonight.
-STANFORD AT VIRGINIA TECH (ACC). This is another game between two teams that have shown a lot of promise and who have picked up some notable wins, but who also still have a lot of work to do and who could really use this win tonight. Stanford is starting a rough stretch of their schedule, so picking up this win and a few more will really make their profile look a lot better.
-MISSOURI AT KENTUCKY (SEC). Neither team has a strong profile and while Mizzou did pick up a nice win against Florida in their last game they still need to add a lot to their resume in order to be seriously considered. Kentucky’s resume is really weak as well. This game seems to feel like it’s more about avoiding a loss than it is picking up a big win.
-CREIGHTON AT VILLANOVA (Big East). Nova is having a fantastic season. While Creighton is starting to play a little better and is off to a solid 3-1 start in conference play, they still have a lot of work to do. A road win tonight would be huge, but it’s also not going to be easy.
-IOWA STATE AT BAYLOR (Big 12). This is a road test for the Cyclones, but they’ve passed some tough road tests already and should be able to get this one. Baylor needs to build up their profile some, and a big win like this would certainly do the trick.
-ALABAMA AT VANDERBILT (SEC). Both teams are protected-seed caliber teams and Vandy is still unbeaten on the season. They’ll be tested tonight at home, but they are at home. Sometimes when a team relies as much on the 3 as Alabama does, it’s hard for them to go on the road and win against a good defensive team. It will be fun to see what happens tonight.
-CALIFORNIA AT VIRGINIA (ACC). Cal has some decent wins on their profile and making the NCAA Tournament is definitely within reach. They can really boost up their profile if they’re somehow able to get this one on the road.
-SMU AT CLEMSON. SMU is coming off a big home win against North Carolina, but they’re just 1-1 in true road games and will likely face an even tougher test tonight. Clemson may not be as good as the Tarheels, but winning at Clemson is probably harder to do than it is to beat North Carolina at home, so it’s a big test for the Ponies.
OTHER NOTABLE GAMES:
-Indiana @ Maryland (Big Ten) – Indiana is starting to string together wins and they need to keep it up. This is a road game, but it’s one they should get and kind of need to get
-Connecticut @ Providence (Big East) – UConn is in the hunt for a 1-seed and while Providence is coming off a nice win against Saint John’s and should have some momentum built up for this one at home, it’s one UConn should still win
-Belmont @ Northern Iowa (Missouri Valley) – these are two of the better teams in the MVC and both could potentially be dangerous in the Round of 64. Belmont’s last two losses have been by a single point, so a win like this on the road would be big
-Richmond @ Saint Bonaventure (Atlantic 10) – both teams have respectable records, but both need to build up their profiles and have a razor thin margin for error when it comes to landing inside the bubble
-George Mason @ Fordham (Atlantic 10) – this should be a winnable road game for Mason and improve them to 15-1 on the season
-Oklahoma @ Mississippi State (SEC) – The Sooners have won five straight, but only have one true road win so far. They should be able to pick up their second one tonight
-Washington @ Purdue (Big Ten) – Purdue should be able to hold serve at home. Washington can boost their profile up into orbit if they’re somehow able to win this, but it isn’t likely
-Kansas State @ Arizona (Big 12) – Arizona shouldn’t have too much trouble holding serve at home
-Arizona State @ BYU (Big 12) – BYU is having an amazing year and while Arizona State looked good at times during the OOC portion of the season, they have fallen back to Earth and may end up getting buried under it tonight
-Arkansas @ Ole Miss (SEC) – it’s never easy to win on the road, but this is one that Arkansas should be able to get
-Utah @ Colorado (Big 12) – the Buffs have work to do and they need to hold serve at home tonight
PILLOW FIGHT OF THE NIGHT
-Xavier @ Marquette (Big East) – 3 years ago, this was the Big East championship game. Now it’s looking more and more like a battle for 10th place.
-Nebraska is still unbeaten and is now (deservedly) ranked in the top ten. They got a battle from Ohio State last night, but held them off 72-69.
-Michigan State did not get a battle from USC. They really didn’t even get a pillow fight. They absolutely blew out the Trojans 80-51. This was the second game in a row where USC was completely blown out of the state of Michigan.
-McNeese had to come from behind to beat Stephen F Austin at home, but they escaped with a 66-64 win. SFA is a good team, but if McNeese is a top 40 caliber team they shouldn’t have had to sweat that much at home against them.
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HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:
-TEXAS TECH AT HOUSTON (Big 12) (***Spotlight Game***). Both teams have had good seasons so far, but you also get the sense that both have improved as the season has gone on and that the games they lost prior to now they’d likely win if they were to replay them now. Texas Tech knocked off Duke in NYC while Houston’s only loss was a close one to Tennessee back over Thanksgiving. This one should be a fun one tonight. Both are capable of making the Final Four.
-DUKE AT LOUISVILLE (ACC). Louisville has been kind of meh on the road this year, but they’ve been fantastic at home. Duke comes in with just one loss on the entire season, but this would still be one of their biggest overall wins if they can pull it off. Both teams are in the rankings, Louisville is competing for a protected seed and Duke is competing for a 1-seed.
-GEORGIA AT FLORIDA (SEC). Both teams could use this win for different reasons. Georgia has only played one true road game so adding a conference road win to their profile will make it look a lot better. Florida is just 9-5, but all of their losses have been close games and most have been against really good teams, so they need a win just to get things kickstarted and to try and build up some momentum.
-SAINT JOHN’S AT BUTLER (Big East). Both these teams have work to do and both should have a sense of urgency coming into this one. The Johnnies are just 9-5 and if they don’t start stringing wins together soon they won’t make the field at all. Butler has been solid and still has a chance of making The Dance, but they have more work to do and a win today would help.
-UCF AT OKLAHOMA STATE (Big 12). UCF just picked up the huge win against Kansas, but they need to get their feet back on the ground because they’re going on the road to Oklahoma State who is 12-2 overall, a perfect 10-0 at home, and who could really use this win themselves. There is something at stake for each team in this one
-TCU @ KANSAS (Big 12). Kansas is looking to bounce back from a tough road loss at UCF and get themselves right again. TCU is a good team that’s looking for a signature win. While TCU is good, and while they appear to be getting better, I don’t know if they’re quite good enough to pull this one off, but we shall see.
-NEW MEXICO AT COLORADO STATE (Mountain West). I’m highlighting this only because New Mexico is right on the bubble and they need to win games that are hard to win in order to land inside of it. This game, being on the road against a pretty good team, qualifies as a hard game to win.
-UCLA AT WISCONSIN (Big Ten). Both teams should have a huge sense of urgency coming into this one because both have a ton of work to do and both could really use this one tonight.
-TEXAS A&M AT AUBURN (SEC). Auburn has a lot of work to do and they’re coming off a really tough multi-overtime loss to rival Georgia. I do think the Tigers are getting better, but they need to start winning. Texas A&M has a bloated record, but they don’t have any wins that are nearly as good as this one would be, so they also have a lot to play for.
OTHER NOTABLE GAMES:
-Michigan @ Penn State (Big Ten) – Michigan has just been bulldozing everyone and I expect for that to continue tonight
-Western Michigan @ Miami OH (MAC) – Miami should be able to hold serve at home and remain unbeaten on the year
-South Carolina @ LSU (SEC) – LSU is having a big year and should hold serve at home
-Iowa @ Minnesota (Big Ten) – Iowa is an impressive 12-2 and is climbing the rankings. They don’t have much on their resume yet because the schedule is backloaded, but they should be able to add a conference road win to it tonight
-George Washington @ Dayton (Atlantic 10) – neither team is inside our bubble, or for that matter even on our board, but these were two of our favorites in the preseason to win the A10 and both still have a path (albeit a very steep one) to get there if they can blow through the league
-Texas @ Tennessee (SEC) – Texas has struggled this year and needs a win like this in order to get things turned back around. Having said that, games like this are incredibly difficult to win. Tennessee is having a solid year and should hold serve at home
-NC State @ Boston College (ACC) – it’s a road game, but it’s one that NC State should easily win. They need to hold serve in this one
-Utah State @ Air Force (Mountain West) – Utah State can get to 13-1 on the year with a win
-San Diego State @ Nevada (Mountain West) – if either team is going to make a run at the bubble then they need to start stringing together wins
