SURVIVAL BOARD UPDATE (Shout out to Chad Sherwood for Tracking):
up to 4 teams could be knocked out Wednesday night:
-ASUN: Loser of Jacksonville State @ Central Arkansas is out no matter what. If either FGCU (home vs Lipscomb) OR Jacksonville (home vs Bellarmine) win, both Jax State and UCA are out. If FGCU wins AND Jacksonville loses, the field will be set and Jacksonville will be out as well (swept by FGCU this season)
-AMERICA EAST: Albany is out if NJIT wins (home vs Bryant)
NEWS AND NOTES:
-For John Stalica’s UTR Game of the Day – CLICK HERE
-Xavier continues to baffle me. They recently lost on the road at Butler, which was surprising, but easy to dismiss as a fluke loss. Or…was it a fluke?? Because they also lost at DePaul. Then they went into Marquette, who I thought was the best team in the Big East, and despite being short handed took Marquette to the wall. They didn’t win, but it was a very impressive showing on the road against a really good team. So, of course, Xavier was hosting Villanova last night in a game that appeared to be a layup win for them…and they lost 64-63, and seemingly appropriately missed a layup in the final seconds that would have won them the game. This Xavier team might go to the Final Four! Or, they may lose in the Round of 64.
-Texas blew Iowa State off the court 72-54. Texas is looking like they may belong on the #1 line, and while Iowa State is in no danger of missing the field they are looking less and less like a protected seed. It’s not that they failed to win at Texas, but that they failed to compete for even the first half.
-Marquette got a HUGE road win at Creighton 73-71. Creighton had been playing really well and was in the rankings, and Marquette getting this one on the road is probably one of their best singular wins of the season in terms of how impressive it was.
-We knew Texas A&M had rattled off a lot of SEC wins, but that their schedule was extremely backloaded. We basically thought “Well, let’s see what they can do when they start playing the tough games.” Well…they’ve shown us. They followed up their win at Missouri last night with a home win against Tennessee. Not only is TAMU solidly in the field, they should be wearing white in the Round of 64.
-Miami FL got a nice 76-70 win at Virginia Tech. On the surface that may not seem like much, but VA Tech has been very tough at home this year so the Canes deserve some credit for that win.
-Michigan State picked up a nice win over Indiana 80-65, which is important both on and off paper. You certainly feel for what the Michigan State community has been through, and while winning a basketball game in and of itself isn’t that big of a deal, it is at the very least a positive community experience for a community that needed it. Indiana is still in good shape and still has a path to a protected seed despite the loss.
-Missouri held off Mississippi State 66-64 in a close, and intense, and exciting game that both teams really needed. Mississippi State probably needed it more than Missouri because they are just squarely on the bubble and a game like this could make the difference as to whether they get in or not. Every game the rest of the way will have a pivotal feel to it for the Bulldogs.
-Texas Tech, a team I had pretty much written off, has now won four straight, and now has a very visible path to the bubble. They won at Oklahoma last night 74-63, which in and of itself isn’t jaw dropping, but it’s still a road win, it’s still their fourth straight win, and the previous teams they had beaten in that stretch are either protected seeds or also fighting for a spot inside the bubble. So….I’m about to say something I didn’t think I’d be saying a week ago. Texas Tech can make the field. They have three games left prior to the conference tournament. If they win two of them, they’ll be right there in the discussion.
HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:
-PROVIDENCE AT UCONN (Big East). Both teams are ranked, UConn is within reach of a protected seed, and Providence is looking to add what would probably be their best win of the season to their resume. Road wins against ranked teams tend to make resumes look better! It’s a Big East game, and there have been very few Big East games that haven’t been awesome this year.
-WAKE FOREST AT NC STATE (ACC). NC State appears to be rather safely inside the bubble, and it would take one hell of a collapse for them to miss the field, so they are largely just playing for seeding the rest of the way. Wake is outside the bubble, and I suppose it’s possible for them to get inside of it, but they’d need to win tonight. And they’d need to win their next one too. And the one after that. And…so on.
-NORTH CAROLINA AT NOTRE DAME (ACC). I’ve had UNC outside the bubble since Christmas, but as rough as I have been on them, they can still reach the bubble. Or, if they fail to win tonight, they may be so far away from it that nothing short of a run to the ACC Championship Game could get them there.
-IOWA AT WISCONSIN (Big Ten). Iowa seems to be safely in the field, but a road win in a game like this would still look good on their profile. Wisconsin has sort of crashed into a mountain and needs to string together wins just to get back inside the bubble. It is still within reach, but they probably need to win three of their last four regular season games.
-NEW MEXICO AT BOISE STATE (Mountain West). This is a super bubblicous game. Both teams really need this one. New Mexico State has some good things on their resume, but they’ve lost four of their last five and have slid down both the seedlist and the MWC standings. Boise has been playing much better than New Mexico recently, but you still get the sense that they have some work to do, and a win tonight would certainly help.
OTHER NOTABLE GAMES:
-Virginia @ Boston College (ACC) – this should be a winnable road game for the Hoos, who should end up with a protected seed so long as they hold serve the rest of the way
-Syracuse @ Clemson (ACC) – Clemson is now outside the bubble, and in order to get back into it they basically need to…well…win out and stop losing games to teams that are nowhere near the bubble
-Minnesota @ Maryland (Big Ten) – Maryland’s biggest problem is that they are a terrible road team, and winning at home against Minnesota isn’t going to help that at all, but they still need to hold serve
-Vanderbilt @ LSU (SEC) – Some say that Vandy can make a run at the bubble, and while I’m not predicting that to happen….I do think that it is at least possible! They need to win tonight, though
-Kentucky @ Florida (SEC) – Kentucky is inside the bubble right now and will stay there so long as they don’t fall apart down the stretch. This is a chance at another winnable road game
-Tulane @ Houston (American) – Houston has a very wide path to a #1 seed, and will get there so long as they hold serve. Tulane is improving as a program and has had a good year, but is way overmatched tonight.
-Alabama @ South Carolina (SEC) – Alabama is the #1 overall seed and will likely stay there so long as they hold serve.
-Ole Miss @ Auburn (SEC) – Auburn is squarely on our bubble, and can’t afford to lose a home game to a team that’s nowhere near the NIT tonight
UTR WATCH:
-CHARLESTON SOUTHERN AT UNC ASHEVILLE (Big South). UNCA has already clinched first place and their last two regular season games are just warm ups for the Big South Tournament.
-BINGHAMTON AT VERMONT (America East). Vermont can clinch first place, and home court advantage in the America East Tournament, with a win tonight.
-SAMFORD AT CHATTANOOGA (SoCon). I’m about to say something that I never expected to say. Samford can clinch at least a share of first place in the SoCon tonight with a win! An INCREDIBLE season for the Bulldogs this year!
-SOUTHERN MISS AT OLD DOMINION (Sun Belt). Southern Miss had a bit of a surprising blowout loss last Thursday at South Alabama, but all and all it has been an amazing season for the Golden Eagles that certainly exceeded any expectations I had for them coming into this year. They can clinch at least a share of first place in the Sun Belt with a win tonight.
-MARSHALL AT JAMES MADISON (Sun Belt). I highlight this because both are still technically mathematically alive, and while they’ve been inconsistent this year, both are capable of playing really well and both are fun to watch.
-LIBERTY AT QUEENS (Atlantic Sun). Liberty is tied with Kennesaw State with two games to go, and while most would say they feel Liberty is the best overall team in the conference, Kennesaw State actually has the tiebreaker. Still, they are guaranteed at least a tie for first if they can win their last two games, which strangely enough are back to back games against Queens.
-KENNESAW STATE AT NORTH ALABAMA (Atlantic Sun). As mentioned above, Kennesaw State is in a tie for first place with Liberty, and has the tiebreaker due to a head to head win. If they win their last two games they will earn the #1 seed and have home court advantage throughout the ASun Tournament.
-ILLINOIS STATE AT DRAKE (Missouri Valley). Drake is tied with Bradley with just two games to go, and the two will face each other on the final game of the regular season this Sunday. I like how this Drake team is now playing and feel if they had been playing at this level all along they wouldn’t need to win the MVC Tournament to make the NCAA Tournament.
-MOREHEAD STATE AT EASTERN ILLINOIS (Ohio Valley). Morehead State can clinch an out right first place finish with a win tonight, and earn a bye into the semifinals of the OVC Tournament.
