The HoopsHD panel gets together again to reveal their current consensus NCAA Tournament bracket heading into the day on February 16, 2023, as well as discussing how the upsets tonight would change the results. The final bracket is below, but don’t look at it until you have watched the podcast!
Here is the bracket:
And here is an audio only version:
NEWS AND NOTES:
-For our latest UNDER THE RADAR Video Podcast, where we discuss and assess all of the non-major D1 conferences – CLICK HERE
-For John Stalica’s UTR Game of the Day, which has major first place implications in the Atlantic Sun – CLICK HERE
-The bad taste of losing back to back games on last second buzzer beaters was probably washed out of Tennessee’s mouths last night as they got a huge win at home against top ranked Alabama 68-59. Defensively they just controlled the game, especially in the second half. I know it was a home game, but it was still an impressive performance and it will help move them back up the seedlist after the last two losses.
-Louisville almost pulled off what may have been the most improbable upset in the history of American Sports. Virginia just barely escaped with a 61-58 win. To put this into perspective, the two teams are further apart in the NET Rankings than any other upset we could ever come up with in the history of either the NET or the RPI. Some will say “Well, it wasn’t as big as the time Chaminade beat Virginia.” I disagree! That Chaminade team was a highly ranked D2 team. Louisville lost an exhibition game to a D2 team with a losing record, and nearly lost another one. This Louisville team probably wouldn’t even qualify for the D2 NCAA Tournament if they were to transition down for a year, so for them to nearly beat Virginia, that may have not just been the biggest upset of the year, or of the decade, or in the history of college basketball, but it may have been the biggest upset in the history of EVERYTHING!!
-Xavier went into Marquette, and after multiple lead changes in the final minute of play Marquette escaped with a 69-68 win. It seems as though the Big East has given us more thrilling games this year than most of the rest of the conferences, and Xavier has been in a fair number of them. As for Marquette, they once again look to be the Big East frontrunners.
-Northwestern sprinted out to a big first half lead and lead by 19 at the half, but Indiana put together a very impressive second half and came all the way back against a really good team, and did it on their floor. Unfortunately for the Hoosiers Northwestern managed to escape and pick up yet another big win after hitting a shot at the buzzer.
-Iowa State and TCU were both in a bit of a tailspin, so it was kind of a big game for both teams when they faced each other last night, and Iowa State got the 70-59 win. After looking as strong as any team in the country for a while, TCU has been plagued with injuries.
-San Diego State really had to sweat on the road at Fresno State, but barely held on in a rock fight 45-43.
-Remember when people were saying Virginia Tech could make the Tournament?? Well…they can’t! They lost at Georgia Tech last night 77-70. They’ve been absolutely pitiful on the road, and this should pretty much cement their place outside the bubble minus a complete turnaround and run to the ACC Championship game.
-Kentucky needed a big win in the most desperate way, and got it at Mississippi State 71-68. Mississippi State had been playing really well, especially at home, so it’s a win that Kentucky should get a fair amount of credit for, and I think it puts them back on the right side of the bubble for now.
-Texas A&M held off Arkansas 62-56, and TAMU continues to win games and continues to look impressive. They are now 11-2 in SEC play, and by now should be inside most people’s bubbles. As for Arkansas, they continue to hover around the bubble and are right on the cut line. Both teams still have work to do between now and the end, but at least TAMU appears to be doing said work.
-Oregon, who is a team that we thought had been playing well and were starting to keep an eye on, gave us a reason to take their eyes back off of them. They fell on the road to Washington 72-71 in a game they really could not afford to lose.
HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:
-PURDUE AT MARYLAND (Big Ten). This will be a tough road test for Purdue, but if they feel they belong on the #1 line then this is the kind of road game they should be able to win. Maryland is probably safely inside the bubble, but I personally think their resume is a little flimsy and that a win like this could really help them out. They are 13-1 at home, but none of their wins have been as good as this one would end up being.
-HOUSTON AT SMU (American). Should be yet another routine road win for the Cougars, who have a pretty wide path to a #1 seed.
-FLORIDA ATLANTIC AT MIDDLE TENNESSEE (Conference USA). This could be a bit of a trap game for FAU, but they’ve managed to get it done on in most of their road tests so far. If they win out through the regular season, which they are good enough to do, they should go into the NCAA Tournament field on the first ballot.
-CHARLESTON AT ELON (Colonial). If Charleston wins out, they will get a serious look from the selection committee if they don’t win their conference tournament. The problem is that Hofstra will own the tiebreaker, so CofC will not be an outright first place team.
-UCF AT MEMPHIS (American). Memphis is squarely on the bubble and absolutely needs to hold serve in all their remaining games when they’re not playing Houston. UCF can play at a high level, so Memphis needs to be on upset alert tonight.
-COLORADO AT ARIZONA STATE (Pac 12). Arizona State needs to string together a lot of wins down the stretch just to make it into the field. Right now we have them on the outside looking in.
-SAINT MARY’S AT SAN DIEGO (West Coast). SMC is very far inside the bubble and should end up on no worse than the #5 line if they hold serve the rest of the way and don’t lose to anyone other than Gonzaga (whom they have already beaten once).
-OHIO STATE AT IOWA (Big Ten). Iowa appears to be in good shape as far as a bid goes and will remain that way so long as they don’t tank out down the stretch. For now, the rest of the regular season is just about maintaining and improving their spot on the seedlist.
-UTAH AT ARIZONA (Pac 12). Utah has some decent stuff on their resume, but they’ll need a win like this in order to really get the committee’s attention. They did win the first meeting between these two, but that was at home. Winning on the road is a completely different deal.
-CALIFORNIA AT USC (Pac 12). USC is squarely on the bubble. If they lose at home to a Cal team that is worse than most of the opponents teams typically face in home buy games, they will likely get knocked way off the bubble.
-STANFORD AT UCLA (Pac 12). I think UCLA is looking like the best team in the Pac 12 right now, and they perhaps even have a shot at ending up as a #1 seed if they’re able to win out. They should hold serve at home tonight against a Stanford team that did beat Arizona in their last game, but has done pretty much nothing else all season long.
-GONZAGA AT LMU (West Coast). This one could be a tough one since it’s on the road, and since LMU has managed wins against both Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s already this year. They will be way up for this one, but I have a feeling the Zags will as well. Gonzaga still has a really good chance at ending up as a protected seed if they can win out, which they are good enough to do.
UNDER THE RADAR/SURVIVAL BOARD WATCH…
-To see the SURVIVAL BOARD, which was just recently updated last night – CLICK HERE
-FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON AT SACRED HEART (Northeast Conference). FDU is tied with Stonehill and Merrimack in the NEC standings, but neither of those two teams are eligible for the NCAA Tournament (although they can play in the NEC Conference Tourney). With just four games to go, FDU has a two game lead over Sacred Heart, SFPA, and Wagner. They can widen that lead today.
-UNC ASHEVILLE AT RADFORD (Big South). UNCA has a one game lead on Radford with four games to go, so this one is extremely pivotal. If UNCA wins they can clinch at least a share of first place this weekend. If Radford wins it’s deadlocked heading into the final week.
-MILWAUKEE AT YOUNGSTOWN STATE (Horizon League). Both teams are tied for 1st place with just four games to go, so this one is hugely pivotal
-SOUTHERN MISS AT SOUTH ALABAMA (Sun Belt). Southern Miss has a two game lead with just four games to go, and can come within a game of clinching at least a share of 1st place with a win tonight. They should also get a serious look from the committee if they win out, but fail to win the SBC Tournament.
-SOUTHERN INDIANA AT LITTLE ROCK (Ohio Valley). Little Rock is one game out of 8th place with just four remaining. A loss tonight and a loss to Eastern Illinois on Saturday would eliminate them.
-SELA AT NORTHWESTERN STATE (Southland). Northwestern State is tied with TAMUCC for first place with five games remaining
-TENNESSEE STATE AT MOREHEAD STATE (Ohio Valley). Morehead State has a two game lead with just four games to go, and Tennessee State is among five teams that are tied for second behind Morehead. If Morehead wins tonight and wins Saturday they clinch at least a share. If they lose tonight then it is potentially a complete logjam heading into the final week.
We have not even reached the end of the college basketball regular season but can already start wondering about the stars of tomorrow as the best high school players in the country prepare to receive some national exposure. The McDonald’s All-American Game will take place in Houston on March 28th in Houston, TX, and the Nike Hoop Summit will tip off on April 8th in Portland, OR. Several of this year’s college basketball super-freshmen played in last year’s Nike Hoop Summit including Amari Bailey (UCLA)/Gradey Dick (Kansas)/Jarace Walker (Houston). Yesterday HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel got to chat with Blake Buchanan about trying to go undefeated this season and choosing the Cavaliers.
You were born/raised in Idaho: what is the basketball scene like in the great Northwest? It is not as competitive as other states that have a ton of D-1 players but it has gotten a lot better recently. We can still accomplish what we want to get done and have done well on the AAU circuit.
You left Moscow High School after your freshman season: why did you decide to transfer, and what made you choose Lake City High School? The main factor was COVID: Moscow shut down all of its sports but I still wanted to play so we moved 90 minutes away to Coeur d’Alene.
Last year you earned 1st-Team All-State honors and were the North Idaho POY after leading your team to a 23-3 record, then were named Defensive MVP at the 2022 Idaho state tournament: what did it mean to you to receive such outstanding honors? It was great…but at the end of the day we did not reach our goal, which was to win the state tourney. At least I got to showcase all of my hard work.
You received offers from several great schools including Gonzaga/Iowa but signed with Virginia last July: what was the biggest factor in your decision, and how far do you think the Cavaliers will go this March? The biggest factor was the coaching staff: they put a lot of time into me and when I showed up for my visit it just had a family feel. The facilities are great and the academics are also a huge part: it just felt right. Gonzaga is only 30 minutes from my house so that was the main thing keeping me here. I think Virginia can go far next month if they are hitting their shots.
1 of the other highly-ranked recruits heading to Charlottesville this fall is Elijah Gertrude from New Jersey: I know you guys live on opposite ends of the country but how well do you know each other? We took our official visits to Virginia at the same time and we still call/text each other occasionally. We got to play together a little while we were on campus and he is a super-good athlete so I am happy to be in the same class as him.
You are 6’10”: what position do you play now, and what position will you feel most comfortable at in college? Right now I play the 5 because I am the tallest person in Idaho! Once I get to Virginia I think that I will have to become a stretch-4 so I am working on my perimeter game.
Your high school team is currently 21-0: is it too early to start thinking about an undefeated state title? That is the goal! We finished our regular season and just need to keep doing the same thing on defense because the offense will come for us.
Earlier this week you were named to the Nike Hoop Summit roster for Team USA: where does that rank among the highlights of your career so far, and what will it mean to you to represent your country? I think this is the highest honor of my career so far. Just having the chance to wear the USA jersey with my name on the back as 1 of only 12 guys on the team is super-cool.
Many of the other guys on the roster are also McDonald’s All-Americans: do you know any of them or is there any 1 that you are most excited to play with? I have played with a few of them at different camps but do not know any of them too well. We all have the same goals to be playing at a high level so it will be fun to be out there on the court together.
Your mother Debbie earned a volleyball scholarship to USC before a knee injury ended her career, your father Buck played tight end at Idaho, and your brother Austin won an NCAA volleyball title at Hawaii last year: who is the best athlete in the family? That is a tricky 1: my dad had speed and my mom could jump. We are all good athletes but we all do different things. Personally, I think I am better than Austin…but that is what all little brothers would say!
Liberty (21-6, 12-2) at Kennesaw State (20-7, 12-2) – 7:00 PM ET (ESPN+)
A lot of leagues have potential Top 2 matchups tonight (Big South, Horizon and the OVC come to mind), but our UTR Game of the Day goes down south for a matchup in the Atlantic Sun between the Liberty Flames and the host Kennesaw State Owls. Liberty came into conference play with faint NCAA Tournament at-large hopes; they beat Bradley and Bryant as some of their notable at-large victories, and their only nonconference losses came against Alabama, Northwestern, Southern Miss and Oral Roberts. Darius McGhee continues to be a handful to defend; he averages 21.1 points a game for the Flames.
Both Kennesaw State and Liberty had losses in the regular season against Eastern Kentucky, but both teams are 2 games ahead of the Colonels at this point. More recently, the Owls had a pair of heart-stopping wins against their travel partner Jacksonville State by a grand total of 5 points. Chris Youngblood leads the Owls with 14.5 points a game.
Tonight’s feature conference is the SoCon, which has three teams fighting for first place in the latter part of the season. Samford, who hasn’t finished in first place of any league since 1999, has a chance to win the SoCon this year, but will have to hold off Furman and UNC Greensboro in order to do it.
From there we run through the other 22 UTR leagues and take a look at who is on the verge of clinching 1st place, and who all could be eliminated from qualifying for their conference tournaments this week. Youngstown State continues to be a great story in the Horizon League. Hofstra actually holds the tiebreaker over Charleston in the Colonial and will lock up the #1 seed in the CAA Tourney if they win out. The MAC and Ivy League races are exciting as some of the top teams are slated to face each other this week. Southern Miss is looking better and better and could be a very dangerous team if they can get to the Round of 64, and Drake is continuing to play at a high level as they’re in a race to win the Missouri Valley. We discuss all that, and much more. And, as we do every week, we close the show with this week’s UTR Top Ten.
And for all you radio lovers, below is an audio only version of the show…
NEWS AND NOTES:
-For John Stalica’s UTR Game of the Day, which is a FANTASTIC one out of the Big West tonight – CLICK HERE
Almost nothing went as expected yesterday…
-Kansas State was on the road at Oklahoma, and while road games are tough, K State was a solid protected seed and Oklahoma was, at best, an NIT team. Oklahoma won 79-65. When Oklahoma is playing highly ranked teams at home, they look amazing!! They’ve now managed wins against both Alabama and K State at home. The problem for them is all the other games they’ve played.
-Oklahoma State has been on a rampage, and is good as Kansas is, they had struggled on the road against teams who were playing at a top 25 caliber level (well, who doesn’t?). Last night, in front of a loud and lunatic level crowd, and against a good Oklahoma State team, Kansas controlled the second half and picked up a VERY impressive 87-76 win.
-NC State had been playing extremely well and was even looking like the best team behind Virginia in the ACC, especially in recent weeks. Syracuse looked like a team that should make the NIT, but perhaps still had some work to do just to get that far. NC State lost at Syracuse 75-72 last night.
-Illinois had been on an absolute tear and appeared to be climbing the seedlist, whereas Penn State was in such a freefall that it looked like they’d land somewhere in the middle of the NIT. Penn State knocked off Illinois 93-81 and was in control for pretty much the entire game.
-Missouri was soaring! They just picked up a HUGE road win at Tennessee and appeared to be playing like a top 25 caliber team! Auburn, who had played well against some tough teams recently, but still came up short in all of them, was looking like a bubble team. Auburn absolutely blew Mizzou’s doors off 89-56. By the first media timeout, the game was basically over.
-Rutgers is having to deal with injuries, but is still having a fantastic season and had what appeared to be a night off last night at home against Nebraska. they were behind pretty much the entire way and lost 82-72 to a Nebraska team that basically needs to win out just to get onto the NIT bubble.
-New Mexico, who has some solid wins on their resume that are keeping them inside the bubble, but was also just 6-6 in Mountain West play coming in to last night’s game. The good news (or so we all thought) was that they were at home against a pitiful Wyoming team, and it was essentially a buy game. So of course New Mexico trailed the entire game, and lost handily 70-56. This should have been a predictable way to end the evening considering how the rest of the day had gone. Now you start to wonder if New Mexico even belongs in the field at all.
-Duke won at home against Notre Dame, and keeps their perfect home record in tact, but they BARELY won. It was 68-64 and came down to about the final minute of play.
HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:
-ALABAMA AT TENNESSEE (SEC). Tennessee has lost two straight games on buzzer beaters, and had those games gone their way they’d almost assuredly be in the hunt for a #1 seed. Right now it looks like Alabama could end up with the top overall #1 seed, and a win tonight would certainly be a huge step toward earning that. As strong as Alabama’s profile is, a win tonight would probably be one of their single most impressive wins of the season considering that it’s on the road against a Tennessee team that’s likely to end up as a protected seed.
-XAVIER AT MARQUETTE (Big East). These are the top two teams in the Big East, and the first game was a classic. Xavier is now dealing with injuries, and that is a big concern, and Marquette is an extremely impressive 13-1 at home. Xavier has just three conference losses, but two of those are complete headscratchers at DePaul and at Butler, so on top of not being completely healthy Xavier isn’t always the best team away from home.
-KENTUCKY AT MISSISSIPPI STATE (SEC). This is a massively important bubbilicous game for both teams. Mississippi State has suddenly come to life with five straight wins, but they need to keep piling them up in order to finish inside the bubble, and they need this one at home against a Kentucky team that’s also on the bubble, and who hasn’t been overly impressive in true road games. If Kentucky were to win it would actually be one of their more impressive wins on the season, and a huge (and much needed) boost to their profile.
-INDIANA AT NORTHWESTERN (Big Ten). Both teams are red hot. Both (at least I believe) are top 25 caliber teams, and Indiana can even make a run at a protected seed if they can continue to rack up wins. A road win today would go a long way for the Hoosiers.
-TCU AT IOWA STATE (Big 12). Since conference play began we’ve said we thought as many as six Big 12 teams could end up as protected seeds. While that could still happen, for the last couple of weeks these two have been slipping. TCU has been dealing with injuries, and Iowa State has just hit a skid. Still, both are solid top 25 teams, and both still have paths to protected seeds if they can get back to winning at a strong clip. Tonight’s game is as important from a momentum perspective as it is from a paper perspective. Both teams could just really use a big win right now.
-ARKANSAS AT TEXAS A&M (SEC). Arkansas has probably moved up the seedlist and is relatively safely inside the bubble, but they could really help themselves out with a win tonight over their old SWC rivals. TAMU got off to a slow start this season, and while they’ve played really well for the last several weeks or so and are definitely headed in the right direction, they still aren’t quite to their destination yet. A win tonight would be yet another big step forward.
OTHER NOTABLE GAMES:
-Virginia @ Louisville (ACC) – these two have had some classic battles in recent years, but it shouldn’t be that way this year. This is about as close to a buy game as a road game can seem
-Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech (ACC) – if VA Tech is going to reach the bubble they pretty much need to win out. They definitely can’t afford to lose a game like this
-Florida State @ Clemson (ACC) – Clemson is right on the bubble, and like all bubble teams every game is critical. They cannot afford in a game like this at home
-Boise State @ Colorado State (Mountain West) – Boise State is on the bubble and can’t afford to lose games to teams that are nowhere near the bubble, even if it is on the road
-San Diego State @ Fresno State (Mountain West) – San Diego State is starting to separate themselves from the rest of the MWC. They need to hold serve on the road tonight.
-Oregon @ Washington (Pac 12) – this is a rivalry with more heat to it than what most may realize. It’s also a big game for an Oregon team that needs a strong finish the regular season in order to reach the bubble
