NEWS AND NOTES:
-In a 24 hour period we saw four top 12 teams (Purdue, Marquette, Duke, and Kentucky) all lose to unranked teams. People say they love March because of the upsets. There are actually FEWER upsets in March than there are throughout November and December, and if you think about it, it makes sense. The rankings aren’t quite as precise yet, and teams are having to play on the road. The thing is, each season these upsets are kind of quickly forgotten, and as the season plays out we sort of find out that some of them really weren’t upsets at all. We see this every year. Maybe not four top-12s losing to unranked teams in a 24hr period, but we see upsets like this every year.
We’ve certainly seen it from Kentucky before. Kentucky is a team that ends up going 100mph by the end of the year (albeit not last year), but usually only starts off going 40mph-50mph. They can also be wildly inconsistent throughout November and December. Remember when Gardner Webb beat them? Remember when VMI beat them? Remember when Miami OH almost beat them and Charlie Coles gave the greatest postgame press conference of all time? Remember when Richmond beat them? Remember when Evansville beat them? Actually…you probably DON’T remember that! And, that’s my point! We’ve seen this before!!! You just don’t remember!
-Now, having said that, I WAS surpirsed yesterday. I liked UNC Wilmington coming into the year and thought they had a chance to win the CAA. But, after seeing them get clobbered by Appalachian State and then not beat East Carolina on the road, I kind of wrote them off their chances of becoming a potential bubble team. But yesterday they played out of their minds and beat Kentucky 80-73 at Rupp Arena. They had a 16pt lead in the second half at one point, and Kentucky did come back. The thing is every time Kentucky seemed to have all the momentum and it felt like they had finally gotten control of the game, UNCW had an answer. This was a HUGE win for them, and if they can hold serve the rest of the way, there may be a spot for them inside the bubble after all.
-We don’t see Duke lose true road games before January all that often, but the reason for that is because Duke almost never plays any true road games before January. If you go back and look at Duke’s record in true road games over the years, it isn’t bad at all, but it’s probably not nearly as good as you may guess it to be either. This year, they’re 0-2 in true road games. They lost at Arkansas, which was to be expected, and then followed that up with a 72-68 loss at Georgia Tech yesterday, which wasn’t really expected, but isn’t a jaw dropping surprise either. GA Tech probably isn’t a tournament team, but they are still very tough to beat at home and they now have back-to-back road wins against top 25 teams. To get the attention of the committee, though, teams have to win away from home, and that is something Georgia Tech has yet to do.
-I think Marquette’s loss at Wisconsin will end up not even being considered an upset. That’s not to say that I think Wisconsin is a better team at Marquette, but I do think they’re really good and are certainly capable of beating highly ranked teams on their home court.
-Villanova is almost comical. They are 6-3 on the year and have looked fantastic in their six wins. All three of their losses came in the Big 5 Classic. Yesterday, they lost 57-55 to Drexel. I still think Villanova is a good team and will end up having a big year. I hope they do! I like that they play the other Big 5 schools, and a good way to squash the narrative that so many other schools cling to of “having nothing to gain and everything to lose” from playing the local teams can be proven to be hogwash if Nova can go on and have a big year after losing all three of their games. Villanova has not lost everything. They really haven’t lost much of anything. They can still have a big year, and likely will.
-Illinois went into Rutgers and just blew them off the floor 76-58. It was a VERY impressive road win for the Illini.
-Indiana State won a big game at Bradley 85-77, and actually had a much bigger lead than that throughout most of the game. We were all really impressed with how good Bradley looked out of conference, but the Braves have now lost their first two MVC games, and Indiana State now has our attention as they improve to 2-0 in the league and have a really impressive road win to go along with their 7-1 overall record. FEAR THE TREES!!!
-Also in the Missouri Valley, Drake improved to 7-1 and picked up their second conference win with a pretty impressive 74-57 showing over Missouri State.
-Princeton escaped!! They needed a shot at the buzzer to hold off Furman 70-69 and remain unbeaten on the year.
-Memphis and Ole Miss seesawed back and forth, but in the end Ole Miss got the 80-77 win and remains unbeaten on the year. Ole Miss hasn’t done much away from home, and they’ll eventually need to if they want to show they belong in the NCAAs, but the win at home against a pretty good Memphis team will count for something.
-Utah State continues to look very impressive as they improve to 7-1 on the year. They beat a pretty good UC Irvine team last night 79-69 and if they can keep this up they’re looking like a team that will make quite a bit of noise in the Mountain West and end up back in the NCAA Tournament.
-Western Carolina suffered their first loss of the year in a somewhat surprising 82-77 defeat at Gardner Webb.
-Santa Clara suffered a very surprising road loss at California 84-69. Cal didn’t just win, but won handily and were in control of the entire game. I was expecting the complete inverse to happen.
UMass-Lowell also went down on the road as they fell at Merrimack 74-68. As you may recall, Merrimack nearly pulled off the upset at Georgetown earlier this week, but came up just short. There was an utterly ridiculous technical foul called against Merrimack Head Coach Joe Gallo at a crucial moment late in the game, which played a factor in Georgetown barely escaping. Well, then yesterday, THIS happened to Georgetown….
-TCU improved to 7-0 after a crazy ending on the road at Georgetown. Replay showed that the game winning shot should have never counted because the player had stepped out of bounds. The problem is that officials cannot review an out of bounds play if there was never a whistle to call him out of bounds, so the shot was allowed to count. TCU is now 7-0, but six of those wins were home buy games against the weakest teams you could imagine, and another was on a controversial ending against a Georgetown team that also isn’t all that good, so I’m still not sold on the Horned Frogs.
There was an even crazier ending than that!! It really was the craziest ending to a basketball game I have ever seen, and I’ve seen A LOT of basketball games!!! You know what?? You gotta see it to believe it! Just CLICK HERE AND WATCH. Yale falls to 5-4 on the year, and their chances of being able to land inside the bubble are slipping away. They are still potentially an incredibly dangerous team, but they’ve missed several early season opportunities to build up their resume.
-Two more quick notes from the Atlantic 10: Saint Joseph’s won the Big 5 Classic with their 74-65 win over Temple, and George Mason is now 7-1 on the year after picking up their first road win of the season at Toledo.
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HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:
-AUBURN AT APPALACHIAN STATE. This isn’t the easiest road game for the Tigers, and if they win it they’ll probably end up getting a little more credit than what most people will realize. This is also the first true road game for Auburn. I like this Tigers team, but they need to show up ready to play today.
-CLEMSON AT PITTSBURGH (ACC). I like both these teams, particularly Clemson who is still unbeaten and has some pretty good wins on their resume. Winning at Pitt won’t be easy, though. They are coming off a home loss to Missouri and will be looking to rebound today.
-SAN FRANCISCO AT ARIZONA STATE. If I’m guessing, I don’t think either team ends up inside the bubble, but both are off to decent starts and both certainly have a path to it if they can string together some wins.
-WICHITA STATE AT MISSOURI. Wichita State is kind of below the sight-line right now, but they’re 7-1 and have shown some potential. Today is by far their biggest test of the year. Missouri is a solid team that we will likely see back in the top 25, and it would be a huge statement win for the Shockers if they’re able to pull this off. It’s definitely the kind of win that would get the attention of the committee.
-CREIGHTON AT NEBRASKA. Creighton looks like a legit top 20 team, and Nebraska looks like a team that can win home buy games. Even though the Huskers are unbeaten, outside of perhaps a win against Duquesne they are also untested. They are at home, and they should be way up for this one, but chances are they’re way overmatched.
-MINNESOTA AT OHIO STATE (Big Ten). I haven’t been all that big on the Gophers this year, and despite their 5-2 record I’m still really not, but Ohio State is a team I’m pretty big on and if Minney can go on the road and get this win then they’ll definitely have my attention.
OTHER NOTABLE GAMES/BUY GAMES:
-Keystone (nond1) @ James Madison
-FGCU @ Cincinnati – Cincinnati can remain unbeaten
-Tulane @ Fordham – Tulane with a chance to get to 6-1 and pick up their first true road win
-TAMU Commerce @ SMU
-Southern @ Mississippi State
-Louisville @ Virginia Tech (ACC) – Louisville looks to be a better team, but they’ve still got a ways to go. This should be a winnable ACC game for the Hokies
-Air Force @ Portland – I’m not all in on AFA yet, but a win in this one gets them to 7-2 on the year, as well as their third true road win
-Pepperdine @ Colorado
-Central Arkansas @ Hawaii – Hawaii can get to 6-1 on the year
Bracketology – Staff Bracket (Monday, December 4th)
This week it is our colleague John Stalica’s turn to do his initial Staff Bracket for the 2023-24 season. This is not a prediction of who the Selection Committee would pick (as Jon Teitel will begin making those predictions in January), but rather who John feels would be selected as of this checkpoint. Below is the bracket:
First Four Out: Nevada, Auburn, Iowa State, New Mexico
Worth a Look: Michigan State, George Mason, Pittsburgh, Duquesne, Georgia Tech
COMMENTS FROM JOHN:
After many programs took on their first loss of the season, Arizona moves up to the #1 overall seed through games played through Sunday. Purdue remains a #1 seed despite a loss at Northwestern, but still gets credit for wins in the Maui Invitational (i.e. Marquette, Gonzaga and Tennessee).
Colorado State and BYU are looking like they’ll compete for not only protected seeds, but protected seeds where they’ll be competing for a seed in the West Region. Keep in mind that BYU can only be placed in either the West or the East Regionals because of the inability of BYU to play on Sunday.
The big UTR winners that are above the cut line right now are Indiana State (at-large) and Appalachian State as the last team above the First Four. Drake would be considered the auto-bid winner of the Missouri Valley for purposes of this exercise.
I have teams like Nevada and Michigan State out for the time being simply because they don’t have any Tier 1 or Tier 2 wins yet on their profiles (at least according to the daily JNG rating). Apparently, being undefeated doesn’t matter anymore. Right, Florida State football team?