Hoops HD Daily Rundown – Wednesday, Jan 25th

Posted on January 25, 2023 by David Griggs

NEWS AND NOTES:

-For John Stalica’s UTR Game of the Day – CLICK HERE

-Iowa State knocked off Kansas State 80-76 in last night’s edition of ‘Big 12 Protected Seeds.’  K State hit a field goal drought in the second half and Iowa State appeared to be in control, but K State fought back, but just couldn’t come all the way back.

-Kent State, who was unbeaten in the MAC and who we figured could get inside the bubble if they ran the table or came close to it, suffered a HUGE setback last night when they lost at Northern Illinois 86-76.  It’s tough to win on the road in the MAC, but Northern Illinois is not the toughest place in the MAC to win at, so this was a bit of a disappointing loss.  I don’t know if it completely eliminates them, but even for someone like me who has been championing Kent State all year long, I’ve got to admit  that it at least MOSTLY eliminates them, and that one of the games Kent State needs to win is that last MAC Conference Tournament game if they want to make the field.

-North Carolina picked up a road win at Syracuse 72-68 and while the game was close the Tarheels held the lead for most of it.  This is a bigger deal than what most may realize because up until last night North Carolina’s only road win was at Louisville, and I’m not sure that even counts as a road win this year.

-Other than that, it was a mostly chalky night last night with no surprises or cataclysmic results.

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:

-XAVIER AT UCONN (Big East).  Both teams are still in the hunt for a protected seed.  UConn just recently ended a stretch where they had lost five out of six, and the start of that skid was a loss at Xavier back on New Years Eve, so it’s a chance for the Huskies to add to their resume, climb the seedlist, and climb the rankings.  As for Xavier, this would probably be their best win of the season to date if they’re able to pull it off.

-HOUSTON AT UCF (American).  I would have thought this would be Houston’s toughest remaining game, and it still might be, but UCF has gone into the tank a little bit with two straight losses to teams that are nowhere near the field.  In fact the only way UCF can probably play their way back inside the bubble is if they can get this win today.  Houston is coming off a somewhat surprising loss and probably won’t be caught sleepwalking, though.

-GEORGIA AT TENNESSEE (SEC).  Georgia has been playing a lot better, but if they want to get all the way inside the bubble they’ll need to win a game like this.  Tennessee is still within reach of a #1 seed, especially with opportunities against Texas, Auburn, and Alabama still on their schedule, but they’ll need to hold serve today.

-WAKE FOREST AT PITTSBURGH (ACC).  This is a hugely important bubblicious type of game where both teams have played well, but both still have some work to do if they want to land safely inside the bubble.  A win tonight would certainly help.

-WISCONSIN AT MARYLAND (Big Ten).  Wisconsin has dropped two straight games, but we still believe to be very safely inside the bubble even though they are currently going in the wrong direction.  Maryland is coming off a game where they nearly won at Purdue, which would have been huge, but as it is they still need to do some work if they want to land safely inside the bubble and a win today at home would certainly help.

-TEXAS A&M AT AUBURN (SEC).  TAMU is 5-1 in SEC play after a rather unspectacular start to the season.  The thing is they haven’t exactly faced the top teams in the conference, and while they played well at a loss at Kentucky their last time out, they didn’t get the win.  If they want to get the committee’s attention, they need to win a game like this.

-UTAH STATE AT SAN DIEGO STATE (Mountain West).  A lot of people like Utah State, but we at Hoops HD have pretty much had them outside the bubble for the entire season.  In order for that to change they need to win a game like this one.  San Diego State is solidly in our field and will remain there if they keep holding serve in what is turning out to be a rather competitive Mountain West Conference.

OTHER NOTABLE GAMES:

-West Virginia @ Texas Tech (Big 12) – This isn’t an easy game for WVU to win, but it’s probably less hard than most of the games remaining on their schedule, so they need to find a way to do it if they want any shot at all of making the field
-Northwestern @ Nebraska (Big Ten) – this is a winnable road game for a Northwestern team that’s been playing really well
-South Carolina @ Florida (SEC) – the Gators have been playing better and some believe they still have a chance to make a run at the bubble.  They can’t afford to drop this one tonight
-George Mason @ VCU (Atlantic Ten) – if anyone from the A10 has any shot at all at landing inside the bubble it’s VCU, and they basically need to win out to do it
-Butler @ Providence (Big East) – Providence is solidly in the top half of our bracket right now
-Mississippi State @ Alabama (SEC) – Bama is solidly on the #1 line and will stay there so long as they hold serve and don’t drop any losses at home to teams that are outside the bubble
-Saint John’s @ Creighton (Big East) – Creighton is on the bubble and I would advise them not to lose this one
-Indiana @ Minnesota (Big Ten) – this is a very winnable road game for an Indiana team that is suddenly playing very well

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Under The Radar Game of the Day – Wednesday, January 25th

Posted on January 25, 2023 by John Stalica

Samford (14-7, 8-0) at Furman (15-6, 6-2) – 7:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

Two of the top teams in the SoCon tip off tonight as the Samford Bulldogs travel east to face the Furman Paladins tonight. Samford has gone streaking all season – for better or worse. They started the season 6-0 (with three non-D1 wins) and immediately followed that with a 7-game losing streak in nonconference play. Since SoCon play started, they have won eight straight games that included wins at UNC-Greensboro and at East Tennessee State. Ques Glover averages 14.4 points a game for the Bulldogs.

Furman had a bit of a choppy start with a 7th place finish in the Charleston Classic, but around that they also picked up nonconference wins against Belmont, Winthrop and Stephen F. Austin. Unlike Samford, they haven’t done as well against the top of the SoCon; they already have losses against UNC-Greensboro and Western Carolina which has relegated Furman to 3rd place in the conference. Mike Bothwell averages 19.4 points a game and 3.6 assists a game for the Paladins.

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Hoops HD Daily Rundown – Tuesday, Jan 24th

Posted on January 24, 2023 by David Griggs

NEWS AND NOTES:

-For our latest HOOPS HD REPORT Video Podcast – CLICK HERE

For John Stalica’s UTR Game of the Day – CLICK HERE

Kansas has now lost three straight, and Baylor picked up another huge win 75-69.  Baylor had also lost three straight games before going on the five game winning streak that they’re on now.  A three game losing streak may seem like a death knell for a team that’s hoping to get a #1 seed, but two of those three losses were on the road to likely protected seeds, so I still think Kansas is very much in the hunt for the #1 line.

-New Mexico was in another thrilling high stakes game, and this time they came up a little short.  They fell in overtime 97-94 on the road at a Nevada team who is right on the bubble and who could really use the win.  While this was a missed opportunity at a big road win for New Mexico, I wouldn’t call it much of a setback.  They’re still very solidly in the field, and perhaps even in on the first ballot.

-Northwestern was back in action after a pause due to temporary health issues within the program, and they got a big win over Wisconsin 67-64.  Even though the win was at home, I think they’re solidifying themselves more and more as a team that belongs in The Dance.

-Duke lost on the road.  Again.  Some will say this was a big win for Virginia Tech.  I say beating Duke on your own home floor isn’t a big win at all.  All but one of the teams they’ve played on the road have done it, and the only one that failed to do it was Boston College.  That’s because BC blew an opportunity to win the game in the final seconds.  If the season ends with that being Duke’s only road win I will personally strongly feel they don’t belong in the field.

-A shoutout to Chicago State who won their first D1 road game yesterday and their 5th overall game of the year.  I do not mean this as back-handed praise.  I like what this program has done this year under Gerald Gillion.  They are not in a conference and one could say they have absolutely nothing to play for, yet they still play hard and are actually noticeably better than they have been in years past.  I’d like to see them land in the Horizon League, or the Ohio Valley, or some place in their geographic region.

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:

-PENN STATE AT RUTGERS (Big Ten).  Rutgers is solidly inside the bubble and while they’ll be tested today, they should be able to hold serve.  Penn State is squarely on our bubble and could really use a win in a game like this in order to help them land on the right side of it.

-MIAMI FL AT FLORIDA STATE (ACC).  Miami has lost their last three road games, including a very close road loss at Duke over the weekend, and could use a win tonight simply because it is likely their most winnable remaining road game.  It won’t be a cakewalk, though, given how much better Florida State has been playing in recent weeks.

-NOTRE DAME AT NC STATE (ACC).  NC State shouldn’t have too much trouble bouncing back from their loss at UNC over the weekend and picking up a win tonight.

-OHIO STATE AT ILLINOIS (Big Ten).  Ohio State ended a five game losing streak with a somewhat impressive win over Iowa this past weekend, but they’ve still got some work to do if they want to end up inside the bubble.  Having said that, winning at Illinois would constitute doing quite a bit of work, so…

-LSU AT ARKANSAS (SEC).  Arkansas ended a four game losing streak this past weekend with a win over Ole Miss, and this should be another winnable home game over an LSU team that isn’t bad, but also isn’t inside the bubble right now.

-OKLAHOMA AT TCU (Big 12).  TCU is coming off their hugely impressive blowout win at Kansas where it was perhaps the best single game that any team has played this season.  They’re at home tonight against an Oklahoma team that’s floating around the bubble and who needs to string together some wins, but doing that in a conference like the Big 12 isn’t easy given how good the entire top half of the league is.

-KENT STATE AT NORTHERN ILLINOIS (MAC).  Kent State is inching closer and closer to the top 25 and should be able to land inside the bubble if they can continue to dominate MAC play.

-KANSAS STATE AT IOWA STATE (Big 12).  Both teams are protected seeds in our projections right now, and K State may actually have a shot at a #1 seed if they keep winning like they have been.  They have some very impressive road wins on their resume already and will certainly be tested again tonight by an Iowa State team that’s been playing very well at home.

-OKLAHOMA STATE AT TEXAS (Big 12).  Oklahoma State is starting to string together wins and has played their way very close to our bubble, and while they’ll certainly have the opportunities they need to get inside of it, winning the games they need to win won’t be easy given how strong the conference is.  They have a chance tonight against a Texas team that’s one of the many Big 12 teams that’s in contention for a protected seed.

-GEORGIA TECH AT CLEMSON (ACC).  This should be another winnable home game for a Clemson team that is inside the bubble and should stay there so long as they hold serve the rest of the way.

-NORTH CAROLINA AT SYRACUSE (ACC).  This game is a bigger deal than most may realize because to date they have just one true road win, and that was at Louisville which may arguably not even count.  Syracuse is on a stretch where they’re 10-3 in their last 13, which is a lot better than they were when they started the season, but they’ve still got a long way to go to reach the bubble.

-KENTUCKY AT VANDERBILT (SEC).  Kentucky has now won three straight and has looked noticeably better in that three game stretch than they have at any previous point in the season.  This is a road game against a Vandy team that isn’t anywhere near the bubble, but that also isn’t an SEC doormat either.

-FRESNO STATE AT BOISE STATE (Mountain West).  Boise State is having a really good year and should be able to bounce back tonight from a close and hard fought overtime loss to New Mexico over the weekend.

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Under The Radar Game of the Day – Tuesday, January 24th

Posted on January 24, 2023 by John Stalica

Murray State (11-9, 6-4) at Southern Illinois (16-5, 8-2) – 8:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

Tonight’s UTR Game of the Day takes us to the Missouri Valley where Murray State crosses the Ohio River to take on the Southern Illinois Salukis. The Racers have won two out of their last three games; their last game was an 82-73 home win against Indiana State. Brian Moore Jr. had 19 points for Murray State; with the win they jumped into a 5-way tie for fourth place.

The Salukis are on fire right now with wins in 11 out of their last 12 games; they won the first matchup against Murray State 63-57 on the road. In their last game, they won the Barry Hinson Classic against Missouri State 61-57. Four players for the Salukis scored in double figures at MSU; Lance Jones led the way with 11 points.

And speaking of Barry Hinson, this classic video came after an SIU-Murray State matchup about a decade ago:

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The Hoops HD Report – Monday, Jan 23rd

Posted on January 23, 2023 by David Griggs

We’ve got a stacked panel tonight to review a busy week in college basketball and look ahead to yet another busy week.  We spend a little time debating whether Alabama or Purdue should be the top ranked team, we look at the Big 12 and how as many as six teams could end up as protected seeds, we discuss TCU’s huge blowout win at Kansas, we look at two other shocking losses with Houston losing at home to Temple and Gonzaga losing at home to LMU. We preview a big week for the SEC as they go into the Big 12/SEC Challenge.  The Mountain West has several teams hovering around the bubble, and we debate what the actual strength of the league is with some of us thinking it’s a mirage and others thinking it’s strong.  All that, and more!!

And for all you radio lovers, below is an audio only version of the show….

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Hoops HD Bracket Projections (From David Dorman) – Monday, Jan 23rd

Posted on January 23, 2023 by David Griggs

David Dorman’s comments on the bracket are posted below…

NOTES ON THE BRACKET (From David Dorman):

We are under 50 days until Selection Sunday and there are a ton of games this week that will shape this year’s bracket.

I had a really hard time placing the teams right on the cut line. The resumes look similar. Some good wins at home, not much on the road. With teams right on the cut line I like to look for road wins that are tough to get. I like to see a team win in buildings where most visitors walk out losers. Show me something on your resume no one or few others have. Northwestern went to Bloomington and beat Indiana and went to East Lansing and beat Michigan State. Only Northwestern and Purdue have gone into Michigan State this year and left victorious.Northwestern is the only team in the country this year to win at Indiana this year. To me this shows Northwestern can win big tough games. I gave the Wildcats one of my last at large berths because of these road wins.

The last 4 schools to make my bracket today were:

Maryland
West Virginia
Arizona State
Northwestern

Just missed my bracket:

Penn State
Pitt
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State

 

There are 3 Big Ten teams and 3 Big 12 teams on those 2 lists. These teams can’t afford to lose at home and pulling off a stunner on the road is highly advised.

I had Houston on the 1 line until last night’s home stunning loss to Temple. The Tennessee Volunteers moved up to 1 line with Houston’s loss.

LOOK OUT 5 seeds, the best under the radar teams are coming after you. Oral Roberts, Charleston, Kent State all currently sit on the 12 line and are very capable of winning multiple games in the NCAA Tournament. If any of these 3 team’s stumble in their conference tournaments there will be long and difficult decisions in the committee room. Should they receive an at large bid? What seed line do they deserve? They all have resumes worthy of at large bids.

Maybe the best under the radar team is Dusty May’s Owl’s from Florida Atlantic.  They are 19-1 and running away with Conference USA’s regular season title. I have them as a 7 seed today and I could see them receiving a 5 or 6 seed if they win out. 1 loss will not change my thoughts on this team, they are at large worthy today and a loss or two won’t change that.

Teams that have risen in my bracket lately:

Kansas State
Marquette
TCU
St. Mary’s
Indiana
Rutgers
Iowa State

Teams in my bracket but cold lately:

Illinois
Gonzaga
Wisconsin
Arkansas

 

Huge games for the bracket this week:

Wisconsin @ Northwestern 1/23

Ohio State @ Illinois 1/24

Kansas State @ Iowa State 1/24

Xavier @ UConn 1/25

Iowa @ Michigan State 1/26

UCLA @ USC 1/26

 

Enjoy the games, Selection Sunday is coming fast.

COMMENTS FROM CHAD:

– I have said it before and I will say it again — I just don’t get all the love for Tennessee’s profile.  The Vols have only one win over a team solidly in the field (Kansas — so it is a very good win).  They have a loss to a team that is near the bottom of the at-large field (Kentucky) and a team nowhere near the field (Colorado).  That’s a solid profile, and a top 4 seed, but nowhere near the 1 line in my opinion.

– I like TCU better than the 5 line, maybe as high as a 3 seed.  Yes, they have a very bad home loss to Northwestern State, but they won AT Kansas, AT Baylor, and beat Kansas State as well.  That is three wins over protected seeds, to go along with wins over Iowa and Providence.  Quite frankly, that is way more than Tennessee has done.

– I think Boise State belongs in the field, but not as an 8 seed.  The Broncos have three losses to teams that are not in the field (one is a horrible one at home to South Dakota State).  They do not have a single win over a team that actually made the field.  Yes, their 7 Tier 2A wins is impressive, but that gets you in as an 11 or 12 seed at best, and probably going to Dayton for the First Four.

– Illinois has not lost to anyone that missed David’s field other than his top team out, Penn State.  They have neutral court wins over UCLA and Texas.  That is deserving of several seed lines higher than a 9.  I could see them as high as a 5  or 6 seed right now.

– I also feel Wisconsin is undervalued.  The Badgers don’t have any really bad losses (most of them were to teams that made the field).  They won at Iowa and at Marquette as well.  I think they deserve to be 3-4 seed lines higher than a 10.

– I really cannot argue too much with the choices of teams.  I probably would not have Ohio State in right now, but it is hard to pick someone to replace them.  I like that Dorman left Pitt out — the Panthers are fading fast.  All in all, I think this was a good bracket — way better than the nonsense that Griggs posted last week.

COMMENTS FROM JOHN:

-Dorman was right in that Houston was not going to be a #1 seed after a bedwetting at home against Temple. I also agree with Chad in that it should not have been Tennessee getting the last #1 right now. I would actually have made the case for Kansas State given that they now have 2 road wins against protected seeds Texas and Baylor.

-Saint Mary’s is one of those teams that probably looks like a 5 seed when you see them play in person, but when I look at their resume they scream 7 or 8 seed to me. Their win against San Diego State is the only team that I feel confident putting in the field, and they also have losses against Colorado State and Washington that are eye-gougingly bad this year. Maybe split the difference and make them a 6?

-Arizona State picked a bad week to go winless; they are now 0-3 against 3 of the top teams in the Pac-12 at home (losses against USC, UCLA and Arizona). Now they almost have to get a road win against at least one of those teams just to feel safely in the field; I’m getting a lot more bearish against the Sun Devils. But not as much as Teitel probably is.

-We talk about 12 seeds being giant killers; #13 Marshall and #14 Seattle would also be good upset picks in a field like this. #14 Princeton would be pushing your luck.

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