It’s our last show before Christmas! We run through all of the major conferences and discuss Texas Tech’s big come from behind win against Duke and how strong the Big 12 is with as many as five teams in position to end up with protected seeds, The ACC has a lot of teams like Cal, and Stanford, and SMU, and several others who are outperforming their preseason rankings and is much stronger than it was a year ago. Purdue, Illinois, and Michigan State are still going strong in the Big Ten, and Vanderbilt is the biggest story in the SEC. We also discuss how much the Big East is struggling, and how the WCC, A10, American, and MWC might all be one big leagues.
And for all you radio lovers, below is an audio only version of the show…
-Vanderbilt didn’t just win at Wake Forest. They blew their doors off! The 98-67 win for Vandy on the road may be their most impressive showing of the season so far. They remain unbeaten and continue to look like one of the better teams in the SEC.
-Pittsburgh blew Penn State off of their own floor 80-46. Pitt had not looked good at all this season, and Penn State was showing possible signs of promise, so this was a bit of a surprising result. (Note from Stalica – the game was actually played at the Giant Center in Hershey PA – it will be a neutral-court victory for Pitt, silly Puppet)
-Oregon State had not looked all that good at any point this season either, but they went on the road and knocked off a pretty good Arizona State team 78-75. The loss is definitely a setback for Arizona State, but playing in the Big 12 will give them more than enough chances to make up for it if they really are a tournament caliber team.
-Notre Dame, who I was beginning to think wasn’t the worst team in all of the ACC, lost at home to Purdue Fort Wayne 72-69. PFW is a team we were kind of thinking would finish around the middle of the Horizon League, so this was not a result we saw coming.
-Cincinnati completely slept through their alarm against Clemson and fell behind by more than 20 early in the game. They came all the way back and had a chance to win on the final possession, but a 3pt shot that would have forced overtime did not go down at the buzzer. Clemson survived 68-65.
-Georgetown head coach Ed Cooley will serve a one-game suspension tonight for throwing a water bottle in the stands Saturday night after the Hoyas lost to Xavier – the water bottle inadvertently struck a young boy and his mother in the stands. Cooley did immediately apologize after the incident during the Saturday postgame press conference and on Sunday afterwards. Jeff Battle will be the interim head coach tonight when Georgetown hosts Coppin State at McDonough Arena.
HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:
-DAVIDSON AT KANSAS. Kansas should be able to hold serve in this one, but Davidson is off to a pretty good start and has an opportunity (albeit a tough one) to get a win that will slingshot them into the spotlight. This is a chance to see what they can do against a high caliber opponent.
-MISSOURI VS ILLINOIS (Saint Louis MO). It’s the Braggin’ Rights Game!!!! Illinois clearly looks to be the superior team. They are looking like a potential protected seed whereas Mizzou is going to have to start playing a lot better just to get anywhere near making the field, but we’ve seen some crazy things happen in this game before. If Missouri were to pull off the upset it may completely turn their season around.
-NORTHERN IOWA AT SAINT MARY’S. Northern Iowa is a solid UTR team that has played (for the most part) a really weak schedule and needs a win like this on their profile to get any sort of attention from the committee. Saint Mary’s is a probable NCAA Tournament team and a win in a game like this will likely end up looking good on their resume.
OTHER NOTABLE GAMES:
-Seattle U @ UTSA – Seattle can improve to an impressive 11-2 on the year and pick up their third true road win tonight
-Siena @ Indiana – It’s a buy game that Indiana should win, but Siena has a solid record (albeit against a weak schedule) and the Hoosiers don’t want to overlook them
ONE LAST STOP AT THE BAKERY FOR CUPCAKES BEFORE CHRISTMAS:
-Milligan (nonD1) @ Miami OH -West Georgia @ Georgia -NJIT @ Butler -Denver @ Tulsa -American @ Virginia -Coppin State @ Georgetown -Prairie View @ LSU -Mississippi Valley State @ West Virginia -Stonehill @ Syracuse -Rider @ VCU -East Carolina @ North Carolina -Central Michigan @ Wisconsin -UMES @ Texas -Utah Tech @ Creighton -Bethune Cookman @ Arizona -Eastern Washington @ BYU -Stetson @ Oklahoma -San Diego @ Washington
-The biggest story of the day was, hands down, Texas Tech’s 82-81 win at Duke. Duke led by as much as 17 in the second half. I don’t have the data on the number of times Duke has been ranked in the top five, had a 17 point second half lead, and not won the game, but I’m betting it isn’t often. Texas Tech battled back, kept it within reach, got the lead with less than 2 mins to go, and held on to win after Duke missed what would have been a game winning shot at the buzzer. The Red Raiders had no real big wins coming into yesterday. They now have one of the single most impressive wins that any team will manage this season.
-Purdue absolutely blew Auburn into the sun 88-60. It isn’t the first time Auburn has been absolutely blown out this year, and I’m starting to question just how high their ceiling actually is.
-Houston managed a solid 94-85 win over Arkansas out in New Jersey for one of their better wins of the season. I still think we will see both these teams improve as the season goes on and both will be dangerous come March.
-North Carolina got a major scare from Ohio State, but held on to win 71-70 in the CBS Sports Classic. The Buckeyes don’t have any really big wins yet, but they’ve played well and they showed yesterday that they are capable of winning big games. They will certainly have more chances to do that in Big Ten play so they’ll have the opportunities to land inside the bubble.
-In the first half of the CBS Sports Classic, Kentucky got what was easily their biggest win of the season both on and off paper as they knocked off Saint John’s 78-66. They had to come from behind to do it, but totally outplayed the Johnnies in the second half. It was sort of a surprising result, and as big of a win as it was for Kentucky it also raises questions about Saint John’s. They just haven’t looked that good this season and they haven’t managed any real notable wins yet.
-Dayton was a team that we liked, but knew had a small margin for error. It is now much much smaller. They’ll to Liberty 64-61 at home. Liberty is good, but they’re not so good that a tournament caliber team should not be expected to beat them at home.
-Utah State absolutely blew out Colorado State 100-58. Utah State has looked good all year, but they probably looked better yesterday than they’ve looked in the last several years. It was an impressive blowout win against a pretty solid Colorado State team.
-Virginia Tech needed overtime but held on to beat Elon 82-81. Elon is one of several CAA teams that can be dangerous and that should be fun to watch the rest of the year, and they nearly pulled off a rather notable upset yesterday.
-Wyoming, who I was really big on, lost at home to Grand Canyon 82-70 in a game that was sort of surprising. Wyoming had nearly beaten that same Texas Tech team that just beat Duke and really seemed to be on a roll, so to see them drop a home game to GCU was unexpected.
-Butler held off Northwestern for a 61-58 win and is now a solid 9-3 on the season and should be able to make some noise in the Big East.
-Santa Clara, who I had been touting as an at-large team, is no longer in that category. They suffered a punishing 80-78 loss to a very weak Loyola Chicago team and that his just going to anchor down their NCAA Tournament resume. It was essentially a home buy game. Or at least it should have been.
-Stanford picked up a real solid 77-68 win over Colorado in Phoenix to improve to 10-2 on the year. They are much better than expected, they beat a pretty good team yesterday, and it will be fun to see what they can do in the ACC.
-Boise State could have really used a road win at Nevada yesterday, and didn’t get it. They fell 81-66 in their conference opener.
-Xavier continues to be up and down this season. After being annihilated in their previous game, they bounced back and got a big 80-77 road win against a fairly decent Georgetown team. It looked like Georgetown may be good enough to land inside the bubble, but not being able to hold serve in games like this will make it tough for them to get there.
HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:
-VANDERBILT AT WAKE FOREST. Vandy looks to remain unbeaten on the year and Wake is still looking for a signature win. Wake lost to both Michigan and Texas Tech by a single point, so they are capable of playing at a high level, but have yet to pick up a high level win that makes their resume pop. This would easily be their biggest win of the year so far if they’re able to pull it off.
-OLE MISS AT NC STATE. Neither team has been quite as good as expected so far. Both need to build up their resumes and both could really use this win today.
OTHER NOTABLE GAMES:
-Pittsburgh @ Penn State – Penn State is having a solid season and should be able to hold serve in this one to improve to 9-3
-Quinnipiac @ Hofstra – neither team is likely to land anywhere near the bubble, but it’s two really solid UTR teams and it should be a fun matchup
-Oregon State @ Arizona State – Arizona State looks like they’re good enough to make a run at the bubble and should be able to hold serve at home in this one
-Cincinnati @ Clemson – Cincinnati has struggled this year and looks like a sub-level NIT team. Clemson looks like a solid tournament team and this is the kind of game they should be expected to hold serve in and win
-Connecticut @ DePaul (Big East) – This should be a very winnable conference road game for UConn
-Indiana State @ Illinois State (Missouri Valley) – Illinois State is looking a ton better after a somewhat sluggish start. They can improve to 10-3 overall with a win today
-Columbia @ California – this is a surprisingly fun one. Columbia is off to a great 9-2 start, but they haven’t won a game as big as this. Cal is one of the bigger surprises of the season so far and can improve to 12-1 if they can hold serve in this one
-Oregon @ Gonzaga – Oregon has struggled with injuries and don’t appear to be much of a match for a top ten level team like Gonzaga
BUY GAMES:
-Colgate @ Florida -Southern @ Baylor -Kennesaw State vs Alabama (Huntsville AL) – Kennesaw is good but is likely way overmatched -Loyola MD @ George Mason -Central Arkansas @ SMU -PFW @ Notre Dame -Cal State Fullerton @ Oklahoma State -Gardner Webb @ Tennessee -New Hampshire @ Saint Louis -La Salle @ Michigan -UC Santa Cruz (nonD1) @ USC -East Texas A&M @ Texas A&M -Florida A&M @ TCU -North Florida @ Miami FL -Long Beach State @ Iowa State -North Dakota @ Nebraska
-Seton Hall keeps winning. Last night they went on the road and took care of Providence 72-67 to win their Big East opener and improve to 11-1 on the year. I should be used to it by now, but I’m not. They’re probably the biggest surprise in all of college hoops.
-Tulsa v Western Kentucky was close all throughout with Tulsa coming from behind in the second half. There were several lead changes in the final minute before Tulsa hit an amazingly executed 3pt play to win the game right at the buzzer 82-81. This was a big road win for the Golden Hurricane and it came against a really good team that isn’t likely to lose too many at home, so it should age well on their resume.
-Belmont absolutely crushed UC Irvine on the Eaters’ own floor 84-58. Belmont is damn good!!
-UC San Diego, who we had been praising all season long, did absolutely nothing praiseworthy last night. They were upset at home by crosstown rival San Diego 82-80. I was thinking UCSD may be good enough to land inside the bubble, but this loss really hurts them.
-Seattle U got a big win over what looks to be a pretty good Washington team 70-66. I guess this means Seattle U is really good as well! They improve to 10-2 on the year and now have a nice win to go along with that record.
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HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:
-SAINT JOHN’S VS KENTUCKY (CBS Sports Classic, Atlanta GA) – Kentucky has struggled all season long, but they did pick up a win against Indiana which could help jumpstart their momentum. Saint John’s hasn’t been quite as good as we expected yet, but the key word there is ‘Yet.’ They will likely start to pick up momentum over the winter break.
-COLORADO STATE AT UTAH STATE (Mountain West). These are two of the better teams in the Mountain West. Both have solid records, both have the potential to make the NCAA Tournament, but both also have limited chances at quality wins. This is actually a really exciting and high stakes conference opener that could determine who ultimately ends up winning it.
-OHIO STATE VS NORTH CAROLINA (CBS Sports Classic, Atlanta GA). Ohio State has looked pretty good. A win today would be their biggest statement win of the year and it would say to the committee that they need to start paying attention to them. But winning today won’t be easy. UNC is a very solid 10-1 on the year with the only loss being to Michigan State.
-HOUSTON VS ARKANSAS (Newark NJ). It’s odd that these two old SWC rivals are meeting in New Jersey of all places. Both teams are good, both are potential/likely protected seeds, and both could really use this win to help build up their resume. As good as Houston is, they haven’t managed any wins of this caliber yet so this is a big opportunity for them. The same holds true for Arkansas. They have some notable wins, but none as good yet as this one would be.
-AUBURN VS PURDUE (Indy Classic, Indianapolis IN). Purdue is very solidly in the hunt for a #1 seed. Auburn, while they aren’t quite as good as they were a year ago, is still a strong opponent. If Auburn were to somehow pull this upset it would slingshot their resume into the spotlight.
-DUKE VS TEXAS TECH (New York, NY). This game is at MSG. Duke has looked like one of the top teams in the country, and while Texas Tech hasn’t quite gotten there yet they were my preseason pick to win it all and I still think they can improve as the year goes on. A win today would be a HUGE statement for the Red Raiders, but that’s much easier said than done.
-STANFORD VS COLORADO (Phoenix AZ). Not much was expected from either team coming into the year, but both have solid records, both have looked good for most of the season, and both have gone seemingly completely unnoticed by the media. Both could really use this win today as a resume booster, but it could also help get whoever wins into the spotlight a little more.
OTHER NOTABLE GAMES:
-Oakland vs Michigan State (Detroit MI) – it is the Ugly Sweater Game!! Oakland looks like the best team in the Horizon League, and they’ve played a brutal OOC schedule, but they are likely way overmatched in this one
-Liberty @ Dayton – We had high expectations for Liberty coming into the season, but they haven’t shown them yet. Dayton has looked solid and while Liberty is good, this is one where Dayton needs to hold serve at home
-Buffalo @ Western Michigan (MAC) – it’s the conference opener for a Buffalo team that’s had a surprisingly good season so far
-Elon @ Virginia Tech – Elon is coming off a really nice win against Richmond and appears to have a good team. VA Tech should be able to hold serve at home, but they better not overlook them
-Miami OH @ Ball State (MAC) – Miami OH is looking to remain unbeaten and pick up a road win as they begin conference play
-Kent State @ UMass (MAC) – it’s weird seeing UMass in the MAC. They’ve had a really good season so far and are hosting a pretty good Kent State team today at home. If nothing else this should be a fun game.
Marshall @ Troy (Sun Belt) – these are two of the better teams in the Sun Belt and Troy is perhaps the most entertaining team in the past decade or so
-Grand Canyon @ Wyoming – Wyoming is having a really good year, but their schedule so far has been weak so they need to hold serve
-Northwestern vs Butler (Indy Classic, Indianapolis IN) – Not much was expected from either team, but both have shown signs of life this season and this will be a good win for whoever manages to pull it off
-Maryland @ Virginia – Maryland has had a rough year and Virginia should be able to hold serve at home in this one.
-Xavier @ Georgetown (Big East) – Georgetown has had a pretty solid season so far and should be able to hold serve at home. Xavier has been up and down this year. They were way down in their last game, which was a blowout loss to Creighton
-San Jose State @ New Mexico (Mountain West) – New Mexico should be able to hold serve at home
-Boise State @ Nevada (Mountain West) – this is a tough road game for a Boise State team that has played pretty well since losing their season opener and who needs to keep that up
-San Diego State vs Arizona (Phoenix AZ) – San Diego State got off to a rough start this year and many have started to write them off. They have won three straight and while they are likely way overmatched in this one, this is a chance (albeit a long shot) to get the spotlight back on themselves. Arizona is the #1 team in the nation and they’ve certainly earned it
BUY GAMES:
-Montana @ Louisville -Chicago State @ Indiana -LeMoyne @ Saint Bonaventure -Denver @ Northern Colorado (Front Range) – a win for NOCO gets them to 10-2 -Northeastern @ Syracuse -Loyola Chicago vs Santa Clara – Game in Santa Cruz CA -The Citadel @ Richmond -Bucknell @ Iowa
-SETON HALL @ PROVIDENCE (Big East). Seton Hall has been one of the biggest surprises of the season. They have what should be a tough conference road test tonight against a Providence team that that’s just 7-5 overall, but that’s a perfect 6-0 at home and starting to play better.
-TULSA AT WESTERN KENTUCKY. This is a tough road test for a Tulsa team that’s played well this season and appears to be good enough to land inside the bubble, but who won’t have that many chances to get quality wins between now and the end of the season. WKU is also a really solid team who has limited chances at quality wins and who should be way up for this one.
-WISCONSIN AT VILLANOVA. Both teams had expectations coming into the year, but both have fallen a little bit short so far and both still have work to do. Both could really use this win tonight, especially Wisconsin who was beaten badly by Nebraska in their last game and who doesn’t have a true road win yet this season.
OTHER NOTABLE GAMES:
-Eastern Michigan @ Akron (MAC) – this should be a winnable conference home game for the Zips
-Belmont @ UC Irvine – this will be a tough road test for a Belmont team that’s 11-1 and may have an outside shot at making a run at the bubble. Like any Under the Radar team, they have a very thin margin for error and they need to hold serve on the road tonight
-Florida Atlantic @ Saint Mary’s – Saint Mary’s is a solid team, but they need to build up their profile. FAU is a solid opponent and the Gaels need to hold serve at home
-Washington @ Seattle U – Washington is off to a really good start and is showing signs of being good enough to make the NCAA Tournament. This is just a fun game because it’s on the road against a team from across town that’s also having a good year. Seattle U is 9-2, but they don’t have any wins as big as this one would be.
BUY GAMES:
-Alcorn State @ Baylor -SELA @ LSU -Abilene Christian @ BYU -San Diego @ UC San Diego – UCSD should be able to take care of business in this one -Cal Poly @ UCLA -Morgan State @ California
Before you go any further, I want to make sure you know what you are looking at. This bracket, like all my brackets, are CHECKPOINTS of CURRENT MERIT. This is not an attempt to guess what I think the real Selection Committee’s bracket will look like on Selection Sunday. I am not a Selection Committee guessing expert. We have a couple of those on this site, but I’m not one of them. This is also not an attempt to rank how good I think the teams actually are. I happen to think both Iowa and Georgia are very good, but they did not make this bracket because they don’t have the merit in terms of difficult wins yet. I’m really just asking myself one question when I select and see the teams, and that’s how hard was it to post the record they have against the schedule that they played?
OTHERS CONSIDERED: Iowa, Georgia, Ohio State, UCF, Richmond, Santa Clara, Colorado, Baylor, South Florida, Akron, Kentucky, Indiana, Wyoming, Wake Forest, Dayton
COMMENTS FROM DAVID:
-Michigan is probably playing the best basketball right now, but Arizona is my overall #1 seed because I think their profile is just a little bit better. Both profiles are outstanding. In fact all four #1 seeds have all managed high caliber wins away from home already, but Arizona’s profile is just phenomenal.
-Nebraska on the #2 line may seem like a bit of a shock, but here’s the deal…they are undefeated and they’ve beaten a protected seed in a true road game. No one seeded behind them can say that. I don’t think Nebraska will end up seeded as high as the 2-line come March, but I do think they are very good and have a shot at ending up as a protected seed.
-McNeese is inside the bubble. They do have an atrocious loss on their profile, but they also have multiple decent wins away from home and I think that overall their team is really good. They had one really bad night and that alone could sink them, but they are a very good team overall.
-Louisville on the 7-line is going to make people’s heads explode. This is another case where I think a team is better than their current profile, but I’m seeding teams based on profile and not how good I think they actually are. Louisville has played two road games and not only lost them both, but lost them both rather badly. Nearly everyone I have seeded in front of them has been better away from home.
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