It’s the day before March Madness!!!!! No need to continue the season, though! My bracket below is absolutely perfect, and that’s what we should just go with.
I want to make sure everyone knows what they are looking at. This IS NOT a prediction of what the actual selection committee will do on Selection Sunday, nor is it a supposition of what the actual committee would do if today were Selection Sunday. Most ‘bracketologists’ are trying to guess the committee as accurately as possible. We have one of the best people in the world at it on our staff. His name is Jon Teitel, and his picks can be seen by CLICKING HERE if that’s what you’re interested in.
These are MY picks. If college basketball were a monarch, and I were the head of it, and the season ended today, this is what my bracket would look like. I have some comments below, and we may have additional comments from the rest of the staff as well.
OTHERS CONSIDERED: Xavier, Boise State, Oklahoma, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, George Mason, VCU
COMMENTS FROM THE PUPPET:
-I’ll start with the bubble. If I were trying to guess the committee, I would not have picked UC Irvine. They just don’t have quite enough at the top of their profile to be the kind of team that typically gets selected. The reason I selected them is simply because of how many games they’ve won away from home. It’s astounding. No one else on the bubble has won nearly that many, and I think winning that many games away from home, even if it’s against teams that aren’t inside, on, or near the bubble, is harder to do than winning home games against teams that are good overall, but poor on the road.
-UC San Diego and Drake are not just inside the bubble, but a full line above the First Four. Again, I’m asking myself how hard is it to win the games that this team won?? I think winning at Northern Iowa, and at Bradley, and beating Vanderbilt on a neutral floor is harder to do than beating teams that are good overall, and in the field, but that are bad on the road. Kansas is good, but they’re not good in true road games. I believe winning all those road games is harder to do than winning one home game against a team like Kansas, or Kentucky or Vanderbilt.
-The same is true with UC San Diego. Winning at Cal State Northridge (especially as well as they’ve been playing), and Utah State, and UC Irvine, is MUCH harder to do than winning home games against teams that are in the field, but bad on the road.
-Houston on the #1 line is probably something else the actual committee would not do. They are perfect in true road games, and they’ve only lost one game that didn’t go to overtime, and that was a close game to Auburn. I know overtime losses are not really looked at any differently, but I still think this Houston team would beat everyone I have seeded behind them more often than not.
-I have Memphis really high. No one else has Memphis that high. I just can’t ignore how many good wins they had out of conference. I know they’ve stubbed their toes in conference a couple of times, but they’ve also dominated that conference as a whole, so I think they’ve shown themselves to be objectively better than the one or two teams that have managed to beat them in that league. And no, I’m not simply ignoring those losses. Had they won those games I would be arguing they deserve a protected seed.
-Ohio State was my last team in. I do not like that they are there, but I just can’t seem to put anyone I left out in ahead of them given that they at least have lifted some heavy weight and have some really good wins at the top of their resume
OTHER STAFF COMENTS:
FROM CHAD:
– I hate agreeing with the Puppet. There is a lot here I do not agree with. But his call on Houston is correct. I think this Cougars are now a 1 seed, having replaced Florida from my last projection.
– I like this Texas Tech team a lot. I think they can be dangerous in the Big Dance. But they are not a 2 seed. They have a home loss to UCF that just drags the profile down a line, and need to probably win out (including at Kansas tomorrow) if they want a shot at the 2 line.
– Once again, the Puppet is on something not legal in all 50 states when evaluating Mississippi State. This team is probably a 6 seed, but is not even close to the 4 line. They have a losing conference record! Team that cannot play .500 min their conference, even this year’s SEC, do not get protected seeds. EVER.
– Oregon is a tough team to figure out, but 4 straight wins has me believing in the Ducks again. I would have this team 1-2 seed lines higher than Griggs does. They have a ton of Quad 1 wins, including road and neutral court ones over teams ahead of them on the seed list (Alabama neutral, at Wisconsin, Texas A&M neutral).
– Drake as a 10 seed? Are you serious??? I would have them as a 9….
– Vanderbilt’s profile had a huge hole in it. They had no quality road wins. Then they won at Texas A&M. This profile is very very good now. I would have them as a 7 or 8 seed, not barely in on the 11 line.
– I would love to see UC-Irvine make the field, but they lost a game they could not afford to lose at home to Northridge, and do not belong. Ohio State is 10-13 against the top 3 quadrants and only 16-13 overall. Wake Forest had a weak profile before they suffered three bad losses recently (at NC State, home to Virginia and Florida State). None of the three belong. I would have Xavier, Oklahoma and North Carolina in, with Boise State knocking at the door. Three of Griggs First Four teams simply do not belong in the field.
– All in all, Griggs did a GREAT JOB on the 1 line. The other 15 were about what I expected from him. I guess that’s what happens when you let a Puppet pick the field.
FROM JOHN:
– I think an interesting debate that should take place is Texas Tech versus Texas A&M for the final 2 seed and the top 3 seed. Griggs doesn’t have his Top 16 listed, so I can’t even verify if he has Tech #8 and A&M #9 for example. I probably would have swapped them personally since Uncle Buzz’s team won head to head against the Red Raiders.
– I know Chad and other bracketologists are not going to like reading this, but conference records are becoming less relevant in an era of unbalanced schedules. Mississippi State is only a game under water in the SEC, but very few teams can boast of wins on the road against Memphis, Vanderbilt (who plays like a protected seed at home) and a sweep of Ole Miss. They only have one loss against a non-tournament team, but I could see them being either a 5 or a 6.
– Another potential seed swap would be to put Creighton on the #6 line and Kansas on the #7 line. The Puppet has not been high on Kansas and for good reason – the Jayhawks had a solid November against a pair of protected seeds, but have done virtually nothing since the Thanksgiving decorations were put away. Creighton (even without Pop Isaacs) was able to recalibrate and have been a solid 2nd place team in a deceptively competitive Big East.
– With Georgia plugging a huge hole and finally getting a quality win in the SEC, they’re closer to the cut line than Griggs will give them credit for. Do the right thing and put the legendary Xavier/Georgia rivalry in the First Four instead of Wake Forest and Ohio State. Do First Four teams like Wake typically lose multiple games to teams nowhere near our Selection Board?
– From someone who values road wins a little too much at times, I can’t help but notice the absence of SMU from even being considered. Granted they had bedwettings every time they played NCAA Tournament-caliber opponents, but they are a remarkable 10-2 away from home (both road and neutral games considered). Why is he high on UC-San Diego when they do it but not when the Ponies do it? They’re certainly above Wake in the ACC pecking order right now, but the head-to-head loss against North Carolina definitely puts them behind the Tar Heels. At least they have the master lobbyist Bubba Cunningham in their back pock – oh wait, that’s UNC’s ace in the hole, not SMU.
– I will give credit to Griggs on one count – at least he found a way to ensure that the Wolverines advance to the second round of the NCAA Tournament. As an Ohio guy, that means the obvious choice is the Utah Valley Wolverines; the Michigan squad has been living dangerously for a month and may well be ripe for an early upset.
