News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Wednesday, Feb 23

NEWS AND NOTES:

-UConn picked up a big 71-69 win over Villanova in a game that was an absolute thriller.  UConn Coach Danny Hurley was not around for the end of it.  He was ejected for perhaps the most ridiculous technical foul I’ve seen in a while.  He was called for one that was probably legit, he then gestured the crowd after things had settled down to get pumped up, and…was called for a second technical??  I think getting T’d up is a good way for a coach to slap his players in the face, but I also know that for whatever stupid reasons some coaches do it on purpose to “fire people up.”  Okay, that’s stupid, but that’s not ejection worthy!  Never has been!  Until last night, I guess.  But, UConn got the win, so I guess it all worked out

-Other than that it was very chalky.  Again.  A few close calls included Alabama having to sweat out Vanderbilt, and almost blew it in the final minute, but held on to win 74-72.  Boise State also held off San Diego State 58-57 after the Aztecs got the lead very late in the game, but Boise was able to hold on.  Other than that there weren’t any surprises or anything too cataclysmic for the second night in a row.

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:

-CREIGHTON AT SAINT JOHN’S (Big East).  Creighton has hit a hot streak and won five in a row, and they appear to be climbing the seedlist.  The Johnnies are outside the bubble, but they’ve also started to play well having won four of the last six with the two losses being close games to both Villanova and UConn.  They appear to be so far away from the bubble that it just isn’t going to happen, but they are playing well at the right time of the year.

-DUKE AT VIRGINIA (ACC).  Virginia won the first match-up, but despite that Duke appears to be a virtual lock for a protected seed and Virginia appears to be several games away from even being on the bubble.

-XAVIER AT PROVIDENCE (Big East).  Xavier has lost four out of five and appears to be sliding down the seedlist, whereas Providence is being projected as a protected seed.  They still have room to improve, but they are a good team that is in great shape both on the court and on paper.

-TCU AT TEXAS (Big 12).  Texas was projected as a protected seed last Saturday, so one must assume that they are within reach of a protected seed.  I believe TCU is solidly in the field for now and that a loss today won’t change that, but a win would catapult them through the roof.

-GEORGE MASON AT VCU (Atlantic Ten).  VCU has slim chances of getting inside the bubble, but they pretty much need to win out to even be in the discussion.

-SYRACUSE AT NOTRE DAME (ACC).  Notre Dame continues to straddle the bubble, but as of now we have them on the inside.  They missed an opportunity to get a big win at Wake this past weekend, and they need to hold serve int his one tonight against a Syracuse team that hasn’t had a good season, but who has won six of their last seven.

-WAKE FOREST AT CLEMSON (ACC).  We have Wake Forest inside the bubble, but still close enough to it where they could easily fall out of it if they start dropping games to non-tournament caliber teams.

-WEST VIRGINIA AT IOWA STATE (Big 12).  I think Iowa State is in solid shape for a bid despite their conference record, and will remain that way so long as they hold serve.  Having said that, holding serve involves winning this one tonight.

-UMASS AT DAYTON (Atlantic Ten).  I am once again thinking has a wadded up paper’s chance in hell of making the NCAA Tournament.  Not a fireball’s chance by any means, but definitely a chance that’s at least a little bit better than a snowball’s chance.

-DAVIDSON AT DUQUESNE (Atlantic Ten).  Davidson is still inside the bubble, but while their resume is stable, it isn’t so rock solid that it could sustain too many losses like this one, so they need to hold serve.

-RUTGERS AT MICHIGAN (Big Ten).  It’s Michigan’s first game with Phil Martelli at the helm, but more importantly Michigan is outside the bubble and needs to string together wins to get inside of it, and Rutgers is inside the bubble and needs to keep winning to stay inside of it, so this game has quite a bit of stakes to it.

-HOUSTON AT TULANE (American).  I’m excited for the progress Tulane has made under Ron Hunter, and feel that it will be at a tournament caliber soon.  Not this year, though.  But, this is a team that believes in itself, and they face a Houston team that’s high in the rankings and safely in the field, but that has struggled in the last couple of weeks.

-TULSA AT SMU (American).  SMU is squarely on the bubble and needs a strong finish to the season to end up on the right side of it.

-EVANSVILLE AT LOYOLA CHICAGO (Missouri Valley).  Loyola Chicago is also squarely on the bubble (at least according to our projections) and is in danger of falling off of it if they lose before the MVC Championship game.

-OLE MISS AT AUBURN (SEC).  Auburn is coming off a loss at Florida, but they are still in outstanding shape and on pace to end up as a #1 seed.  They should be able to knock off a struggling Ole Miss team tonight.

-BUTLER AT SETON HALL (Big East).  Seton Hall can even their Big East record up at 8-8 and keep themselves inside the bubble if they hold serve tonight against a Butler team that has just struggled for pretty much the entire season.

-LSU AT KENTUCKY (SEC).  LSU looks to be a solid tournament team, but I no longer feel they will end up as a protected seed.  Of course if they win tonight, it will shoot them up the seedlist.  Kentucky is still within reach of a #1 seed and should be able to hold serve tonight at home.

-WISCONSIN AT MINNESOTA (Big Ten).  Wisky appears to be on a path to a protected seed, and while it’s never easy to win on the road, this does appear to be a winnable road game for them.

-WYOMING AT COLORADO STATE (Mountain West) (Front Range).  We at Hoops HD Love the Front Range!!!  This is actually a Front Range game with quite a few stakes to it.  Both appear to be inside the bubble and both could really use this win to improve their tournament resumes.  It should be fun!

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News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Tuesday, Feb 22

It’s Tuesday, 2-2-2022.

CLICK HERE for the latest HOOPS HD REPORT Video Podcast

NEWS AND NOTES:

-Baylor needed overtime to get the 66-64 win at Oklahoma State, and right at the end of regulation it looked as though Oklahoma State had hit a game winning shot, but it was waived off due to a shot clock violation.

-Other than that, it was a very chalky night.  Nothing all that cataclysmic happened, so…

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:

-TENNESSEE AT MISSOURI (SEC).  Tennessee is coming off a loss at Arkansas, which ended a five game winning streak, but they are still on pace to get a protected seed and shouldn’t have too much trouble picking up another road win tonight.

-ARKANSAS AT FLORIDA (SEC).  Florida is coming off their big win against Auburn and now appears to be solidly on the right side of the bubble.  They will be even more solid if they can beat an Arkansas team that is red hot tonight.

-MICHIGAN STATE AT IOWA (Big Ten).  Iowa is coming off a really big win against Ohio State, which completely changed the complexion of their resume.  They can climb the seedlist even more if they can get a win against Michigan State tonight.  Michigan State is still very much safely inside the field, but they have been struggling recently.

-RHODE ISLAND AT SAINT BONAVENTURE (Atlantic Ten).  The Bonnies have a very narrow path to landing inside the bubble, but it basically involves them winning out.  Which, given how they’ve been playing, is not impossible.

-VILLANOVA AT UCONN (Big East).  Villanova is a solid protected seed who could add another really big road win to their resume tonight.  Connecticut is also within reach of a protected seed if they can finish strong.

-OKLAHOMA AT TEXAS TECH (Big 12).  Texas Tech will get a protected seed so long as they hold serve the rest of the way, and is coming off a really nice road win at Texas.  Oklahoma needs to string together some wins between now and the end just to ensure that they make the field at all.

-MIAMI FL AT PITTSBURGH (ACC).  I like this Miami FL team and resume, and think they belong inside the bubble.  We currently have them there, and I believe they’ll make the field so long as they hold serve.

-KANSAS STATE AT KANSAS (Big 12).  Kansas is on pace to end up as a #1 seed, and Kansas State appears to be squarely on the bubble.  There is debate whether or not the Wildcats belong in because of their overall record.  Well, getting this win tonight is a HUGE ask, but if they somehow do it, I don’t think there will be any more debate.

-ALABAMA AT VANDERBILT (SEC).  Alabama is clearly the better team, and this should be a winnable road game for them, but Vandy is noticeably improving and the Tide better not overlook them, especially on the road.

-SAN DIEGO STATE AT BOISE STATE (Mountain West).  This is a HUGELY important game for a San Diego State team that is squarely on the bubble.  If they can get a win like this on the road, it will probably make the difference as to whether or not they make the field.

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The Hoops HD Report: February 21st

We begin by discussing the ruckus that occurred after the Michigan at Wisconsin game when the postgame handshakes went completely awry.  We break down the suspensions that were handed down and share a few thoughts on the whole incident.  Something that got lost in the shuffle was that it was another nice win for Wisconsin, which continues to play well and should end up with a protected seed.  Michigan State is slipping, but is still in good shape, and Rutgers’ big run came to an end with a loss at Purdue, but they still look like they can make the field.

We also look at the top 16 teams that the committee released this past weekend and give our thoughts and insights.   From there we run through the ten major conferences and talk about how Gonzaga has a path to ending up as the #1 overall seed for the second year in a row, how Auburn is coming off a loss but is still in good shape for a #1 seed, and how Kentucky is coming on strong and could end up as a #1.  We look at how strong the Big 12 is and how Iowa State could still make the field despite a rough Big 12 record, and how Kansas State could get in despite a rough overall record.  In the Atlantic Ten, we look at how hot VCU and Dayton both are right now and discuss their chances of playing their way all the way into the bubble.  Arizona could end up as a #1 seed, whereas Oregon is now squarely on the bubble.  We discuss all that, and more…

And for all you radio lovers, below is an audio only version of the show…

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HoopsHD Staff Bracket – February 21

Every week one of the Staff Members here at HoopsHD takes a shot at putting together a Bracket Projection (in addition to the weekly projections — in the Bracketology tab above — from Jon Teitel, who is one of the best at guessing the committee out there!).  This week it is Chad’s turn, and below are his current predictions through all games of Sunday, February 20.  After the field are his notes, followed by comments from others on the staff here.  To the extent that any of those comments are not utter and complete praise for the perfection of this week’s bracket, Chad asks that you kindly ignore them and delete their author from all your social media accounts.

CHAD’S NOTES

— Auburn’s loss at Florida has made Gonzaga the clear #1 overall team on my seed list.  In addition, Arizona has jumped up to #2 overall — the Wildcats’ only two losses were to protected seeds (teams on the top 4 seed lines).  All three of Auburn’s losses were to teams below that level.

— In the Bracket Reveal/Preview show on Saturday, the actual NCAA Tournament Selection Committee placed Providence on the 4-seed line and I have followed suit.  Their top quadrant wins are great, but you have to remember that they won at Wisconsin and at Connecticut in games where both their opponents were missing their top player.  Plus, they looked horrible on Sunday at Butler and needed a near-miracle comeback to find a way to win in overtime.  This was against a Butler team that was coming off a 37 point loss to St. John’s!

— I have Iowa State on my 7 line despite a 5-9 conference record.  I honestly don’t care that they are 5-9 in the best conference inn the country.  What I do care about is an amazing 8 Tier 1 wins, 5 of which are away from home, and no losses outside of the top two quadrants.  A team with that type of resume has to be in the top half of the bracket!

— Sticking in the state of Iowa, I finally have the Hawkeyes in a position where they are no longer squarely “on the bubble”  It is amazing what one really good road win (at Ohio State) can do for a team that had nothing good and nothing bad on its resume.  Iowa landed on my 9 line this week.

— My 10 line is filled with teams I was not sure what else to do with.  Davidson is the best team in the A-10 still, but has some puzzling losses.  Boise State, Florida and Rutgers all have Quad 4 home losses, yet all have very good tops to their profiles.  The Gators still have work to do, but beating Auburn, even if at home, has changed the entire complexion of their resume.

— The first of my two First Four games landed on the 11 line and the second on the 12 line, resulting in the strange but permissible result of both First Four game playing into the South Region (in fact with one of the 16 vs 16 games there as well, that is three First Four games heading to the South).  SMU, off of their season sweep of Memphis, was my second to last team in.  Michigan barely hung on to the final spot — though with suspensions likely after yesterday’s ugly post-game brawl, it may be difficult for the Wolverines to stay there.

— North Texas was ranked #47 on my seed list, in between SMU and Michigan.  I love this UNT resume with their win at UAB this past weekend, and as long as they don’t suffer a bad loss the rest of the way, there is definitely a path to serious consideration for an at-large bid, should the Mean Green need one.

— #49 on my seed list (meaning below the First Four teams) was Loyola-Chicago.  The Ramblers could still get an at-large bid, but the way they are playing right now, I am not convinced they will hear their names called on Selection Sunday if they do not win the MVC’s auto bid.

— My TOP FOUR TEAMS OUT were, in order: Belmont, Memphis, St Bonaventure and BYU.  I also considered Kansas State, North Carolina, VCU, Virginia, Dayton, Oregon, Oklahoma, Colorado and Mississippi State.  I really wanted to find a way to put Belmont in, but the Bruins will get their chance to prove themselves on Thursday when they go to Murray State.  Keep an eye on the Bonnies as well — their NET may only be in the 80s, but they have won 5 in a row and do have neutral court wins against Boise State and Marquette.  A path to an at-large bid still exists for them.

 

STAFF COMMENTS

FROM DAVID:  Chad did a lot of things right here, but he got some things so disastrously wrong that it makes me question how much lead Chad has in his house.

-The omission of Kansas State is blatantly wrong.  Everyone is quick to point out that they are just two games above .500 and that the committee typically doesn’t take teams with records that poor.  Well, for this exercise, we aren’t trying to guess the committee anyway, but even if we were just a few years back the committee took a Vanderbilt team that was just three games above .500 and put them on the #9 line.  THE #9 LINE!!!!  That’s THREE LINES inside the bubble!!!  Even with that record, they weren’t even on the bubble!!  At 14-12 with wins at Texas, at Iowa State, at TCU, and a home win against Texas Tech, that is a much better top of the resume than pretty much everyone from the 7 line down other than Rutgers.  Of their losses, only two happened against teams that were outside the bubble.  Also very good.  K State belongs in!!

-I don’t like saying Rutgers should be higher.  It makes Chad feel too good about himself.  In fact, the only reason I think Chad has Rutgers on his #10 line is to force me to say that Rutgers should be higher.  Well…RUTGERS SHOULD BE HIGHER!!  You know who would very much not like where Chad has Rutgers in his bracket??  USC AND KENTUCKY!!!!

-I don’t understand the Murray State love.  I want to say that I absolutely feel they belong inside the bubble, but I don’t see how they should be in the top half of the bracket.  What they’ve done is impressive, but not top half of the bracket impressive.  Their last two games have been against teams that are nowhere near any sort of a postseason tournament, and they had to sweat out both of them.  Winning at Belmont is a legit good win, but I don’t think it’s ‘top-half-of-the-bracket good.’  It’s DEFINITELY in-the-bracket-good, but not 8 seed good.

-I think I like North Texas better than Chad’s entire #11 line other than Miami FL, and would argue that they not only belong inside the bubble, but belong above the First Four.  8-0 in true road games is VERY impressive.  UAB is 13-2 at home.  It is hard to win there.  North Texas did it.  It’s not all that easy to win at Louisiana Tech either, and North Texas did it.  In looking at their four losses, one was at Kansas (which you wouldn’t ding a protected seed for, so why ding a bubble team?), and the other was neutral against Miami FL who is (rightfully) inside the bubble.  The only stinker is a home loss to Buffalo, and while that does smell kind of bad, the odor of that loss isn’t overpoweringly bad.  I certainly think North Texas would beat Wake Forest and San Diego State if they were to play both those teams on equal terms.

-Notre Dame does not feel like a #9 seed.  Chad has Notre Dame on his #9 line.  The thing is…so do I.  It doesn’t feel like that’s where they should be, but when I build a seedlist, that’s where they are.  So…good job?  I think?

FROM JOHN:

– Providence, while seeded where they ought to be, should NOT be discredited for winning at Wisconsin/UConn while they were shorthanded. As Jerry Palm has said on a prior podcast, that argument becomes invalid when they’re losing games at full strength to teams like Rutgers (i.e. Wisconsin) and Creighton (i.e. UConn). Falling behind at Butler by 19 is concerning, but at least they found a way to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. Give all the credit in the world to the Friars.

– About the only way a team like Marquette is getting a protected seed now is if they make it to the Big East title game and not lose any more regular season games (especially now that they get the easier portion with Butler, DePaul and St. John’s remaining).

– Wake Forest deserves better than a First Four slot. They checked off a much-needed box on Saturday with a win against a likely NCAA Tournament team in Notre Dame. Their resume is meh like Iowa, but they at least have the Virginia Tech road win which is still Quad 1 right now. Two Q1 wins plus no bad losses (i.e. Tiers 3 and 4) deserves more of a 10 seed, if not a 9 like Iowa. But at least the Hawkeyes doubled down with a much-needed road win at OSU. (I’m looking at you, Indiana – you can improve likewise)

– Regardless of Michigan losing their tempers over Juwan Howard apparently not liking Culver’s, I would not have had them in the field (especially with K-State on the outside looking in) just yet. They’ve got 5 games remaining – 4 of them are at home along with a road finale at Ohio State. 3 would be the bare minimum for them to win to feel like they have a shot, and one of those wins better be at OSU.

– While a case could be made for Florida’s inclusion, they better win both of their remaining road games (at Vandy and at Georgia) and at least one home game against either Arkansas or Kentucky. An early loss in the SEC Tournament is not advisable. (Oh, and since we haven’t mentioned them much of late, we need to remind our readers just how atrocious their home loss to Texas Southern was).

– Xavier is dropping like a stone and might be a textbook example of how the Committee will treat the current injury to Nate Johnson. He missed the last two games where Xavier lost at home to St. John’s and at UConn last Saturday. If he comes back and Xavier resumes their winning ways, they might get a little break from the Committee assuming they don’t wet themselves a third time. If he doesn’t come back, then the Musketeers at a minimum need to beat Seton Hall, St. John’s, Georgetown and their first-round opponent in the Big East Tournament to feel safe. Winning at Providence on Wednesday can also absolve a lot of sins.

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News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Monday, Feb 21

NEWS AND NOTES:

-Rutgers impressive win streak came to an end at Purdue yesterday as they fell 84-72, but it hardly the kind of loss that would set a team back.  I think this team is still inside the bubble, and should perhaps be even further inside the bubble than where many are projecting them.

-Providence needed overtime to get by Butler, but they managed to once again win a close game.

-Houston needed double overtime to get by Wichita State, but they escaped with a 76-74 win.  While it is important that the Cougars did win, for the past couple of weeks Houston has not been blowing teams off the floor the way they had been all season long.

USC got a big scare from Wazzu, but held on to win 62-60 to keep their resume from sustaining a bit of a dent.

-Memphis, who had been on a really good run, could not get it done at SMU yesterday and fell 73-57.  I think both teams are on the bubble, but it’s possible that neither end up getting in.

-Creighton won a thriller at home against Marquette to help give their resume a bit of a boost, which it kind of needed.  Marquette is still in really good shape, but the chances of ending up as a protected seed seem to be slipping away.

-Mississippi State finally won a road game as they beat Missouri 58-56.  It isn’t nearly enough to get them onto the bubble, but it is at least a start.

-Last but not least, Wisconsin held serve at home against a Michigan team that appeared to be working its way toward the bubble, but couldn’t get the big win in Madison.  Wisky had gotten control of the game down the stretch, so I turned it over with about 2 minutes to play.  I’m going to assume that the game just ended normally and that I didn’t miss anything.

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:

-INDIANA AT OHIO STATE (Big Ten).  This would be a big improvement to Indiana’s resume if they could pull off this win.  They’re (relatively) safe right now, but they’d be much much much safer with a win like this.

-LOUISVILLE AT NORTH CAROLINA .  North Carolina is overing around the outside of the bubble and needs to keep holding serve.  They did get a nice win at Virginia Tech over the weekend, so they are still within reach of making the field.

-WEST VIRGINIA AT TCU (Big 12).  TCU is inside the bubble and should remain there so long as they hold serve in games like this, which is a home game against a team that’s outside the bubble.

-MARSHALL AT SOUTHERN MISS (We Think Conference USA).  We highlight this game only so we can once again share THIS VIDEO of how CUSA reacted when these two schools announced they were leaving the league for the Sun Belt next year.

-LOYOLA CHICAGO AT INDIANA STATE (Missouri Valley).  Loyola Chicago may be out of strikes when it comes to being inside the bubble and in a position to get an at-large bid if they don’t win the MVC Tournament.  If they aren’t out of strikes, they are getting very close.  Simply put, they cannot lose again until at least the semifinals.

-BAYLOR AT OKLAHOMA STATE (Big 12).  Baylor is solidly on the #2 line right now, and still has a path to end up as a #1 with a strong finish considering how good they are and how tough their schedule is.

-ARIZONA STATE AT UCLA (Pac 12).  UCLA is within reach of a protected seed and they should get it if they can hold serve the rest of the way.

-SAN FRANCISCO AT PACIFIC (West Coast).  San Francisco should make the field so long as they avoid losses to anyone that’s not inside the bubble the rest of the way.  That obviously includes this one tonight.

-NEW MEXICO STATE AT SEATTLE (WAC).  Neither team is inside the bubble, but this is still a fun match-up with first place implications.  New Mexico State is coming off a very impressive performance at Grand Canyon, and if they can get to the Round of 64 they will likely be a very tough match-up for someone.

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Bracketology 2022: March Madness Predictions (Version 8.0)

CLICK HERE For Today’s NEWS, NOTES, AND HIGHLIGHTED GAMES, which previews all of today’s action, and recaps a very busy and eventful Saturday

We are only 3 weeks away from Selection Sunday as we continue to make our NCAA tourney predictions. HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel correctly picked 67 of the 68 teams that made the 2021 tourney, 62 of which were within 1 spot of their actual seed, including 47 right on the money. He will spend the upcoming weeks predicting which 68 teams will hear their names called on March 13th. See below for his list of who would make the cut if they picked the field today and if you agree or disagree then feel free to tweet us. To see how we stack up with other websites (ranked 19th out of 135 entries over the past 5 years), check out: www.bracketmatrix.com

SEED: TEAM (CONFERENCE)
1: Gonzaga (WCC)
1: Arizona (Pac-12)
1: Kansas (Big 12)
1: Auburn (SEC)

2: Kentucky (SEC)
2: Purdue (Big 10)
2: Baylor (Big 12)
2: Duke (ACC)

3: Villanova (Big East)
3: Texas Tech (Big 12)
3: Wisconsin (Big 10)
3: Tennessee (SEC)

4: Illinois (Big 10)
4: UCLA (Pac-12)
4: Providence (Big East)
4: Houston (AAC)

5: Texas (Big 12)
5: Ohio State (Big 10)
5: Alabama (SEC)
5: Connecticut (Big East)

6: LSU (SEC)
6: Michigan State (Big 10)
6: Marquette (Big East)
6: Arkansas (SEC)

7: USC (Pac-12)
7: St. Mary’s (WCC)
7: Xavier (Big East)
7: Wyoming (MWC)

8: Colorado State (MWC)
8: Murray State (OVC)
8: Seton Hall (Big East)
8: Boise State (MWC)

9: Iowa State (Big 12)
9: Iowa (Big 10)
9: Wake Forest (ACC)
9: TCU (Big 12)

10: Loyola-Chicago (MVC)
10: Miami (ACC)
10: San Francisco (WCC)
10: Indiana (Big 10)

11: Notre Dame (ACC)
11: Michigan (Big 10)
11: Davidson (A-10)
11: Memphis (AAC)

12: Rutgers (Big 10)
12: San Diego State (MWC)
12: Creighton (Big East)
12: Florida (SEC)
12: North Texas (C-USA)
12: Iona (MAAC)

13: Chattanooga (SoCon)
13: South Dakota State (Summit)
13: Toledo (MAC)
13: Vermont (America East)

14: Seattle (WAC)
14: Wagner (NEC)
14: Liberty (Atlantic Sun)
14: Montana State (Big Sky)

15: Texas State (Sun Belt)
15: Princeton (Ivy)
15: Long Beach State (Big West)
15: Cleveland State (Horizon)

16: Colgate (Patriot)
16: Longwood (Big South)
16: UNC-Wilmington (CAA)
16: Norfolk State (MEAC)
16: Texas Southern (SWAC)
16: New Orleans (Southland)

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