HoopsHD kicks off the greatest time of the year with a 2-part preview of every single conference tourney in the nation. Jon Teitel continues our coverage with his predictions for the 17 conference tourneys getting underway this week. Please tweet us if you have any comments, and you can review his picks concerning the 14 other conference tourneys that began last week at: https://hoopshd.com/2021/02/25/conference-tourney-previews-part-1-of-2-6
AAC tourney predicted champ: Wichita State (#1 seed)
Dates: March 11-14
Location: Fort Worth, TX
2019 tourney champ: Cincinnati (#2 seed)
Fun fact: only 2 prior champs who are still in this conference are Cincinnati/SMU
Seeding: 5 of past 6 champs were top-2 seed
Houston does not need a conference tourney title to advance, and has a lot of momentum after their miraculous half-court shot at the buzzer to beat Memphis on Sunday, but Wichita State is for real. Former coach Gregg Marshall resigned in mid-November right before the start of the season but Isaac Brown took over and righted the ship with only 4 total losses and all of them coming to top-50 teams. The Shockers have had trouble scoring inside the arc (45.1 2P% is bottom-50 in the nation) but are great at defending teams who try to score from outside the arc (30.2 3P% allowed is top-30 in the nation). Their only 2 conference losses were to Houston/Memphis and they will not have to face either of them again until the title game. Former McDonald’s All-American Alterique Gilbert only played 9 games combined during his 1st 2 years at UConn due to injuries, so if there is such a thing as a 23-year old PG without a lot of miles on his odometer then he is it.
ACC tourney predicted champ: Virginia (#1 seed)
Dates: March 9-13
Location: Greensboro, NC
2019 tourney champ: Duke (#3 seed)
Fun fact: 3 of past 5 NCAA tourney champs did not even make it to ACC title game
Seeding: 13 of past 15 champs were 1 seed or 3 seed
Even though this tourney switched venues from DC to Greensboro (boo!) it is no longer the Duke Invitational as it was from 1999-2011 when Coach K won 10 titles in 13 years. Only 1 team seeded #2 has won this since 2002 so Florida State will regret losing their spot at the top after losing at Notre Dame last Saturday. Virginia struggled mightily at Virginia Tech in January and against the entire conference in late-February with 3 straight losses, but Coach Tony Bennett cleaned things up with a pair of double-digits wins to start March. The Cavaliers’ defense remains solid as usual but the biggest difference from last year is the improved shooting: 38.6 3P% is top-15 in the nation and 81.2 FT% is #3 in the nation. 
Big 12 tourney predicted champ: Kansas (#2 seed)
Dates: March 10-13
Location: Kansas City, MO
2019 tourney champ: Iowa State (#5 seed)
Fun fact: only 3 champs since 2006 are Iowa State/Kansas/Missouri
Seeding: 3 of past 6 champs were not top-3 seed
Baylor just won its 1st regular season title since 1950 and will probably be a #1 seed in the NCAA tourney even if they cannot win the conference tourney. However, this conference features so many terrific teams that nobody will be able to cake-walk into the title game. Kansas stumbled into the new year with a 15-PT home loss to Texas and later lost 5 straight road games but flipped the switch a month ago and won 7 of their final 8 with only a 3-PT OT loss at Texas. I like Shaka Smart but do not think he can beat Bill Self 3 times in 3 months, and Baylor showed an inability to stop the Jayhawks inside the arc, allowing 67 2P% in their loss at the Phog last month. 
Big East tourney predicted champ: Connecticut (#3 seed)
Dates: March 10-13
Location: New York, NY
2019 tourney champ: Villanova (#1 seed)
Fun fact: Villanova has been in title game each 5 year since 2015
Seeding: each of past 5 champs were top-3 seed
Villanova coach Jay Wright has owned this tourney for the past several years…but overcoming a season-ending injury to your SR PG seems like too tall a task. Creighton coach Doug McDermott has had to deal with some off-court comments that could have some negative on-court karma. Since this tourney likes top-3 seeds, the pick is UConn. Few teams depend on a single player more than the Huskies lean on James Bouknight: they have lost exactly ONE game in regulation all year when their star scorer is healthy, and that was by 8 PTS on the road against a Villanova team who had a game-high 20 PTS from Collin Gillespie. Coach Dan Hurley did not lose a single non-conference game this season and this tourney might feel like a string of non-conference games since UConn was in the AAC last year.
Big Sky tourney predicted champ: Southern Utah (#1 seed)
Dates: March 10-13
Location: Boise, ID
2019 tourney champ: Montana (#1 seed)
Fun fact: Montana has been in title game 8 times since 2010
Seeding: 8 of past 9 champs were #1 seed
Montana has owned this tourney for the past decade, and a 4-game winning streak would ordinarily give me hope, but when the last 2 involved a home sweep of the Warner Pacific Knights that allowed them to finish with a winning record: not so much. #1 seeds usually win this tourney, and Southern Utah has won 9 in a row since mid-January, so they get the nod. Coach Todd Simon has only lost 3 games all year and they will not have to face any of those victorious opponents until the title game. The Thunderbirds have a veteran starting lineup of 3 seniors/2 juniors and their 75.3 FT% is top-50 in the nation. JR Tevian Jones was good enough to earn a scholarship to Illinois(!) so I do not think he will be afraid of anyone in this tourney.
Big 10 tourney predicted champ: Purdue (#3 seed)
Dates: March 10-14
Location: Indianapolis, IN
2019 tourney champ: Michigan State (#1 seed)
Fun fact: Michigan has been in title game each year since 2017
Seeding: 5 of past 7 champs were not #1 seed
The last 4 winners of this tourney hail from the state of Michigan, and it is tempting to pick the Wolverines to make it 5 in a row, but this tourney has not been kind to #1 seeds and Eli Brooks’ ankle injury will not help. I was going to pick the Illini if this tourney was still in Chicago but since it has relocated to Indianapolis I will choose a red-hot Purdue team. Coach Matt Painter was 7-5 in early-January but won 11 of his final 14 with only a home loss to Michigan and a pair of road losses by a combined 4 PTS. The Boilermakers have an odd mix of mostly freshmen and juniors, and by this time of the year the freshmen have a good idea what Big 10 basketball is all about. They have a pair of big men who can score in the post (Trevion Williams/Zach Edey) and a bunch of tall guards around them, which is why they have both a top-25 offense AND top-25 defense.
Big West tourney predicted champ: UCSB (#1 seed)
Dates: March 9-13
Location: Las Vegas, NV
2019 tourney champ: UC-Irvine (#1 seed)
Fun fact: 4 different champs since 2016
Seeding: 6 of past 9 champs were not #1 seed
This tourney seems to have a new champ every year and UCSB has not won it in a decade so go Gauchos! Coach Joe Pasternack was a student manager under Bobby Knight, an assistant to Sean Miller, and is the brother-in-law of Roxy Bernstein(!), so there is not an aspect of the game with which he is unfamiliar. He did get swept by Irvine in late-December but has won 15 of 16 since then with only a road loss at Riverside last month. The Gauchos have a veteran starting lineup of 3 seniors/2 juniors and if it comes down to the wire they have 1 of the best FT shooters in school history in Devearl Ramsey.
C-USA tourney predicted champ: Western Kentucky (#1 seed)
Dates: March 10-13
Location: Frisco, TX
2019 tourney champ: Old Dominion (#1 seed)
Fun fact: 6 different champs since 2013
Seeding: 6 of past 8 champs were top-2 seed
Teams often play a difficult non-conference schedule to help prepare them for conference play. Not only did the Hilltoppers do that early in the season with games against West Virginia/Alabama/Louisville, they did it a couple of weeks ago with a hastily-scheduled game at Houston. The bad news is that they lost 3 of those 4, but the good news is that they only lost 3 conference games all year by a combined 11 PTS. Coach Rick Stansbury has a lot of veteran leadership as well as 1 of the best big men in the country in Charles Bassey (17.6 PPG/11.8 RPG/3.1 BPG). If Western Kentucky keeps up their great FT shooting (78.1 FT% is top-20 in the nation) then they will feel confident even in a 1-possession game.
MAAC tourney predicted champ: St. Peter’s (#3 seed)
Dates: March 8-13
Location: Atlantic City, NJ
2019 tourney champ: Iona (#1 seed)
Fun fact: Iona has been in title game each year since 2013
Seeding: 8 of past 9 champs were not #1 seed
Iona has owned this tourney for the past decade and it is unwise to bet against Rick Pitino in March…but due to some scheduling issues they only have 3 wins since Christmas and 8 wins total. This tourney has not been kind to #1 seeds so let’s see who has given Siena problems: St. Peter’s split their season series with the Saints and have 1 of the best defenders in the country in KC Ndefo (3.7 BPG/1.4 SPG despite standing only 6’7”). KC turned 21 last week but already appears to be playing basketball like an adult. Coach Shaheen Holloway made the 2000 Sweet 16 as a player at Seton Hall so he knows how to win games in March.
MAC tourney predicted champ: Buffalo (#2 seed)
Dates: March 11-13
Location: Cleveland, OH
2019 tourney champ: Buffalo (#1 seed)
Fun fact: Buffalo has won tourney 4 times since 2015
Seeding: 7 of past 8 champs were top-3 seed
I know that Toledo is having a great season but I will go ahead and pick Buffalo to win it all. The 32-win seasons of the Nate Oats era may be long gone but Coach Jim Whitesell won 20 games last year and only has 7 losses this year. The Bulls did have a double-digit home loss to Toledo last month…but it is their only loss since the start of February. They are great at defending threes (27.6 3P% allowed is #3 in the nation) and JR F Josh Mballa came THIS close to winning an NCAA title with Texas Tech back in 2019.
MEAC tourney predicted champ: North Carolina A&T (#1 seed)
Dates: March 10-13
Location: Campus sites and Norfolk, VA
2019 tourney champ: NC Central (#3 seed)
Fun fact: only 2 champs since 2014 are Hampton/NC Central
Seeding: 6 of past 9 champs were not #1 seed
I know that #1 seeds have not done well here, and the Aggies were certainly not having fun on New Year’s Eve while reviewing their 2-9 record vs. D-1 teams, but they have turned things around in conference play with only 1 loss since the start of January. Coach Will Jones’ squad is outside the top-300 from 1-PT/2-PT/3-PT range but it has not cost them because they can defend and do not have a lot of freshmen that they have to bring up to speed. Due to a nice break in the bracket, if they end up having to play Norfolk State then it will be in Greensboro during the semifinals rather than in Norfolk during the title game.
MWC tourney predicted champ: San Diego State (#1 seed)
Dates: March 10-13
Location: Las Vegas, NV
2020 tourney champ: Utah State (#2 seed)
Fun fact: Utah State beat San Diego State as #2 seed in title game each of past 2 years
Seeding: 8 of past 10 champs were top-2 seed
The Aztecs lost last year’s title game to Utah State at the buzzer, then got swept in Logan in mid-January, but as long as Sam Merrill is not walking through that door then they should be okay. Coach Brian Dutcher has won 11 in a row since the sweep and has a team full of long-range shooters (38 3P% is top-25 in the nation). Only 1 of their top-10 scorers is a freshman so this veteran crew remembers that entering last year’s title game on a 30-1 streak did not count for anything. It is hard to believe that San Diego State has only won this tourney once in the past decade…but they beat ASU in December, so they got that going for them!
Pac-12 predicted champ: Oregon (#1 seed)
Dates: March 10-13
Location: Las Vegas, NV
2019 tourney champ: Oregon (#6 seed)
Fun fact: only 2 champs since 2015 are Arizona/Oregon
Seeding: 5 of past 6 champs were top-2 seed
I will not be picking Arizona this time around. Oregon and USC both had rough stretches this year: the Ducks lost 3 of 4 in the middle of the season, while the Trojans lost 3 of 4 to finish February (and needed a miracle corner 3 to avoid losing at UCLA last Saturday). Coach Dana Altman has had to deal with COVID and injuries, as SR F Eugene Omoruyi is the only player to start every game this year, yet they won 10 of their final 11 games and will not have to face USC again until the title game. It seems like the entire starting lineup stands 6’6” so they can just switch every single screen on defense without creating a mismatch, and as long as their opponents stop shooting 76.5 FT% they should be able to win a close game. 
SEC predicted champ: Arkansas (#2 seed)
Dates: March 10-14
Location: Nashville, TN
2019 tourney champ: Auburn (#5 seed)
Fun fact: Kentucky has been in 8 of past 10 title games
Seeding: 3 of past 4 champs were not #1 seed
It seems like Kentucky is in the title game every single year…but not this year. Alabama had 1 of the best seasons in school history but became a bit of a home-court hero with 3 road losses since the end of January. Arkansas got off to a brutal 2-4 start in conference play as the result of a front-loaded schedule, but Coach Eric Musselman has been rolling since mid-January and has won 11 conference games in a row, including a 15-PT revenge home win over the Tide last month. The Razorbacks have so much depth that they can throw a little of everything at you: a 7’3” guy who has missed 1 FT all year (Connor Vanover), a highly-rated NBA prospect (Moses Moody) and too many grad transfers to count.
Southland predicted champ: Nicholls State (#1 seed)
Dates: March 10-13
Location: Katy, TX
2019 tourney champ: Abilene Christian (#2 seed)
Fun fact: Stephen F. Austin has won tourney 4 times since 2014
Seeding: each of past 8 champs were top-3 seed
This conference has a lot of separation with a trio of teams with 13+ wins…and due to a postseason ban Stephen F. Austin is not 1 of them. The bad news for the Colonels is that they got swept by Sam Houston State this year. The good news is that revenge is a dish best served cold, they will not have to face the Bearkats again until the title game, and they went 14-0 during the rest of their conference schedule. Coach Austin Claunch should have his team spend a little more time on FT shooting (67.4 FT%) but 8 of his top-10 players are seniors so at least he can rely on their veteran experience. 
SWAC predicted champ: Jackson State (#2 seed)
Dates: March 10-13
Location: Birmingham, AL
2019 tourney champ: Prairie View (#1 seed)
Fun fact: only 3 champs since 2013 are Prairie View/Southern/Texas Southern
Seeding: 6 of past 8 champs were #1 seed
Texas Southern has won of the past 6 title games but if you think they can beat a PAIR of undefeated-in-conference teams to do so this year then you are braver than me. This is 1 of the more fascinating title games we could ever see, as both of the top-2 seeds completed perfect conference seasons due to not having to face each other. Prairie View and Jackson State both played some high-major non-conference competition so I might as well take advantage of the unprecedented opportunity to pick a #2 seed that is 11-0 since Christmas. It also helps that big man Jayveous McKinnis is averaging 12.2 PPG/12.6 RPG/2 BPG. 
WAC predicted champ: Grand Canyon (#1 seed)
Dates: March 11-13
Location: Las Vegas, NV
2019 tourney champ: New Mexico State (#1 seed)
Fun fact: New Mexico State has won 7 of past 8 title games
Seeding: 8 of past 9 champs were top-2 seed
This seems to be a 2-team race between Grand Canyon and Utah Valley, who split their season series in Phoenix last weekend. Coach Bryce Drew did lose 3 of his final 5 games to limp to the finish line, but none was by more than 6 PTS and he has to think his luck will change in Las Vegas…plus he is WELL aware of what it takes to win games in March. Most mid-major teams are lucky to have 1 starter taller than 6’7” but the Lopes have a veritable International House of Height with 6’10” Alessandro Lever from Italy and 7’ Asbjorn Midtgaard from Denmark.
