Before you go any further, I want to make sure everyone knows what they are looking at. This is MY PERSONAL BRACKET BASED ON WHAT HAS HAPPENED SO FAR! It is NOT an attempt to guess the selection committee, nor is it an attempt to guess where I think teams will end up. If you want to look at something that guesses the selection committee, check out Jon Teitel’s latest bracket by CLICKING HERE.
I have done things with my bracket that I know the committee will not do, and my notes and comments are posted below. Below that are some comments from the rest of the staff. If they say that anything about my bracket is wrong, THEN THEY ARE WRONG!!!
OTHERS CONSIDERED: Saint John’s, San Diego State, Richmond, VCU, Utah State, Syracuse, Wichita State, SMU, Saint Louis
COMMENTS FROM DAVID:
-Starting at the top, Baylor is my overall #1 seed. Gonzaga is damn good, and it wouldn’t shock me at all if they were to beat Baylor on a neutral floor, but Baylor has so many big wins in true road games that I just can’t get them below Gonzaga. Baylor is really good too. They really are two titans.
-Ohio State is my solid #3. I mean, when you see the wins at Illinois, at Iowa, at Wisconsin, at Rutgers, and at Maryland, that’s pretty damn good! I know the real committee has Michigan ahead of them, and Ohio State does have a few more losses (and one rather ugly one to Northwestern), but the top of the resumes are nowhere close.
-I have Maryland in my field. I know that their overall record is a big problem for a lot of people, and they think it should be a disqualifier, but I disagree. I think their record is a result of their schedule, and it’s not fair to say they don’t belong if they’ve won a higher percentage of tier 1 and tier 2 games than other teams who have an overall winning record, which they do! If anything I think I have them seeded too low.
-I have Loyola Chicago at #29 on the seedlist, which puts them at the top of the #8 line. I don’t think the committee will value them that much, and the to top of their resume is lacking, but I think they are that good on the court.
-I also have Western Kentucky very safely inside the bubble. They didn’t have that many opportunities at big wins, but they took advantage of the few opportunities they did have, particularly with the win against Alabama. I’m a little more impressed with a team that has three or four opportunities and cashes in on one or two of them than I am with a team that gets ten opportunities and cashes in on one or two of them. I don’t think the real committee will have them as high as I do, but I’m not trying to guess them.
-Going outside the bubble, I really like this Belmont team, but with no wins against anyone that’s even close to making the NIT, I just can’t get them inside the bubble.
-I also don’t have any Atlantic Ten teams inside the bubble. I have three that are just outside of it, but none that are inside of it. They just haven’t done anything!
OTHER STAFF COMMENTS
FROM CHAD:
– I honestly do not understand David’s 2 line. Villanova should be on it, but they aren’t. Same with Houston. Same with Alabama. Clearly, recent games are more important to him than overall resume. While he does have all three of those teams on the 3 line at least, I have no idea what Texas Tech is doing up on the 2 line. The Red Raiders are 6-5 in conference. They also have a non-conference loss to Houston. I think Chris Beard has a great team, but this is a 4 seed, maybe a 3 at best. The 2 line is ridiculous, especially ahead of the teams I mentioned already.
– Virginia Tech is not a protected seed. They have three losses to teams that are not in the field (Syracuse, Penn State and Pitt), and have no road wins against anyone in the field either. Yes, they beat Villanova on a neutral court and Virginia at home — but you need to do more than that to be on the top 4 seed lines, especially when teams like Texas and Florida State have done so much more.
– Seton Hall definitely belongs in a 7/10 game. They just should be the 10 seed and not the 7. They have exactly ZERO wins against anyone solidly in the field and have two losses to teams not even on the Board. The Pirates are playing a lot better the past two weeks, but have a lot more work to do to eve lock up a bid, in my opinion.
– Maybe the reason for David’s high rating of Seton Hall is his equally unexplainable 8 seed for Xavier, a team that I would have in the First Four. The Musketeers just lost at home to a short-handed UConn team. They have beaten no one even close to the field on the road, and their entire profile right now is based on a home win over Oklahoma. That is just not enough to merit wearing white in the first round.
– I get that Minnesota has not and may not win a road game. But their home wins are going to end up being the most impressive group of home court wins by any team in history that could not win a road game. The Gophers should be 4 or 5 lines higher than the play-in game. If they had a few road wins, they might be pushing a protective seed!
– Ole Miss is playing great, and UConn has barely kept their hopes alive with the win at Xavier. I would not personally have had either team in the field right now, but they are very close. I would have rather seen VCU joining the Bonnies to make it two A-10 teams. In fact, if you only go with a single A-10 team, it should have been the Rams over the Bonnies.
– Belmont would have been a line higher and inside the bubble for me. I just cannot overlook a team that has only lost once all season, even if they have not playing anyone from the top two tiers.
– San Diego State is clearly an NCAA Tournament team. Leaving them out is flat out idiotic. They have only lost 4 games (BYU, at Utah State twice and home to Colorado State) while holding wins over Colorado State, UCLA, St Mary’s (neutral) and Arizona State (road). Those may not all be tournament teams, but they are quality wins over teams that are tough to defeat. I would have them rated higher than Boise State and Colorado State even (though all three would be in for me).
– One note on the bottom of the bracket — we may not be used to seeing the Big Sky regular season champion much lower than the 14 line, but Eastern Washington’s profile just does not stack up against at least 6 teams David rated below them. The Eagles have been coming on strong as of late, but they only have one win against the top 200 teams. That is 16 seed profile. In fact, David’s 16 seed James Madison has 5 top 200 wins.
– I do love the idea of a Texas vs Tennessee 4/5 game in “Region 2”. It would be even better if VCU was rightfully inn instead of UConn, setting up a potential Shake vs VCU Round of 64 game before the potential Rick Barnes vs Tennessee Round of 32 game.
