News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Wednesday, Nov 27th

NEWS AND NOTES

-For John Stalica’s UTR Game of the Day between Furman and UT Arlington – CLICK HERE

-So, something that had not happened in 27 years prior to this season has now happened twice in two weeks.  Yesterday Stephen F Austin, an obvious UTR team, went on the road to #1 ranked Duke and pulled off the upset win.  They hung in there, and you just kept waiting for Duke to blow it open, but it didn’t happen.  SFA came up empty on some key possessions at the end of regulation and at the end of OT (I guess in that situation every possession is a key possession), and Duke had the ball in what appeared to be the final possession of the overtime in a tie game.  BUT!!! SFA forced a turnover, which resulted in a fast break layup right as time expired.  It was surreal!  Again!  We saw this a very short time ago when Evansville went into Kentucky and won.

-Auburn struggled in the first half against a pesky Richmond team, but held on to win in the Legends Classic.  It was Richmond’s first loss of the year, and I get the feeling that they have a lotto wins ahead of them.

-Colorado trailed Clemson for much of the game, but came back to get the win and stay undefeated on the season.

-Wichita State, who had a sub-par year last year which seemed to have caused a lot of people to kind of forget about them, absolutely dump-trucked South Carolina to remain unbeaten on the year.  They’ve got another big one tonight against West Virginia.  This looks like a top 25 caliber team to me so far.

-Arizona State came from behind to beat Princeton!  By 2!  Princeton remains winless.  Not exactly a statement win for the Sun Devils.

-DePaul needed to overcome an 18pt deficit to come back and beat Central Michigan, but they were able to do so and are still unbeaten on the year.

-Northern Iowa led West Virginia for most of the game down in the Cancun Challenge, but let it slip away in the final minutes.  A flagrant foul late in the game didn’t help things.  It was a missed opportunity for Northern Iowa to pick up a notable win away from home and go on to play a pretty good Wichita State team tonight, which would have helped them out even more.  It was a big win for West Virginia, but they’ll have far more chances at wins like this than UNI will the rest of the way.

-New Mexico picked up their first big win of the year as they knocked off Wisconsin 59-50.  Not to take anything away from the Lobos, but when you look at Wisky you start to notice that they quality wins just aren’t there yet.

-For the second day in a row, Dayton blew someone out in the Maui Invitational.  Yesterday it was a red hot and unbeaten Virginia Tech team that was coming off a huge upset win against Michigan State.  Dayton gets Kansas tonight.  If they can win that one then not only should the Flyers be ranked, but they should be HIGHLY ranked!

-Butler held on to beat Stanford in a thriller in the Hall of Fame Classic to stay unbeaten on the year.  They have certainly exceeded all expectations so far

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-MICHIGAN VS IOWA STATE (Battle 4 Atlantis).  Iowa State comes in 3-1, but is still looking for their first notable win.  Michigan is unbeaten and already has a decent win against Creighton.  Both teams will have the opportunities to build their resume throughout this event.

-SAINT LOUIS VS BOSTON COLLEGE (Gotham Classic).  Saint Louis is a respectable 5-1 right now.  Adding a neutral floor win to their resume against a so-so Boston College team won’t be a difference maker, but it would certainly help more than it would hurt.

-MICHIGAN STATE VS UCLA (Maui Invitational).  This is probably not the fifth place game that anyone was expecting.  Michigan State struggled down the stretch against Georgia yesterday, but got the win and is looking to add another neutral floor win to their resume.  UCLA is still looking for their first win of note, and if they can pull off the upset then this would certainly qualify.

-NORTH CAROLINA VS ALABAMA (Battle 4 Atlantis).  UNC shouldn’t have too much trouble remaining undefeated against an Alabama team that looks like it’s still trying to find itself.  The Tar Heels will be tested a lot more later on in this event.

-OLE MISS VS PENN STATE (NIT Season Tip-Off).  Both teams have looked strong early on.  Penn State is unbeaten with a few notable wins and while Ole Miss has only won buy games, their only loss was by 1pt on the road to Memphis.  This is a resume building game for two teams that both look like they may be good enough to be dancing in March.

-DAYTON VS KANSAS (Maui Invitational).  Dayton has looked fantastic in this tournament so far.  Kansas appears to be the better team, but this game is hardly a gimme for them.  If anything it’s a chance for Dayton to continue to show that they’re not just good, but worthy of a high ranking if they can beat a Kansas team that thinks it can compete for a #1 seed.

-KANSAS STATE VS BRADLEY (Fort Meyers Tip-Off).  K State is looking to bounce back from a somewhat surprising loss to Pitt the other night.  They shouldn’t have too much trouble with a Bradley team that’s good by UTR standards, but not good enough to were you’d think they’d be able to beat K State.

-SOUTH CAROLINA VS NORTHERN IOWA (Cancun Challenge).  Northern Iowa had West Virginia on the ropes, but could not hold on for the win in the final minutes.  Still, they’re a good team that has a chance to land inside the bubble come March, but they need to pick up some wins away from home in games like this.  South Carolina suffered their first loss yesterday to Wichita State, but the game wasn’t even close.  They could use a win to bounce back as well.

-GONZAGA VS SOUTHERN MISS (Battle 4 Atlantis).  This would be a buy game if it wasn’t part of the Battle 4 Atlantis.  Gonzaga should roll, and will be facing much stronger competition in their next two games.

-OKLAHOMA STATE VS SYRACUSE (NIT Season Tip-Off).  Both teams have potential, but neither have won anything other than buy games yet, so this event is a chance for them to start putting some meat on their resume.

-NEW MEXICO STATE VS GEORGE MASON (Cayman Islands Classic).  New Mexico State continues to battle injuries, but they have managed to win their last two games.  George Mason comes in with a 7-1 record and can continue to build on what is shaping up to be a pretty good early season profile will a win today.

-WICHITA STATE VS WEST VIRGINIA (Cancun Challenge).  Both teams are unbeaten, both have looked good, and both are trying to continue to build their resumes and break onto the national scene.  This should be a pretty good one tonight.

-PITTBURGH VS NORTHWESTERN (Fort Meyers Tip-Off).  Both of these teams have been slow out of the gate, and both already have a few questionable losses and need to get things turned around if they want any hope at all of keeping pace.  Having said that, Pitt does have a few decent wins on their resume as well.

-GEORGIA VS CHAMINADE (nondiv1) (Maui Invitational).  If Georgia wins this, which is a safe assumption, it will be their only win in this event, and it won’t be against a div1 team.

-OREGON VS SETON HALL (Battle 4 Atlantis).  Both teams are ranked, both have already picked up some good wins, and both can continue to build their resumes today.  The committee favors teams who beat ranked teams away from home.

-OREGON STATE VS SAN JOSE STATE (Las Vegas Classic).  This isn’t the kind of win that would make people jump out of their seats, but this is a pretty good Oregon State team and it is a chance for them to pick up some winnable games way from home.

-VIRGINIA TECH VS BYU (Maui Invitational).  Virginia Tech was blasted by Dayton yesterday, but they’ve still been one of the bigger surprises of the season and if they can get out of this with another notable win away from home they’ll still be in very good shape.  It’s a good opportunity for BYU to pick up a notable win as well.

 

BUY GAMES (and equivalencies)

-SC State @ Tulsa
-UT Arlington @ Furman
-Maine @ Virginia
-Manhattan @ Rhode Island
-Hartford @ SMU
-Stony Brook @ Delaware – a win for Delaware gets them to 7-0
-Gallaudet (nondiv1) @ Vermont

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Under The Radar: Wednesday, November 27th

UT-Arlington (3-3, 1-3 D1) vs. Furman (6-1, 4-1 D1) – 3:00 PM EST

Today’s UTR Game of the Day takes us to the Battle 4 Atlantis on the Mainland at Elon – the Mavericks of UT-Arlington will take on the Furman Paladins in an afternoon matinee. The Mavericks have one D-1 victory thus far this season against Tulsa; they have played a challenging schedule that includes losses against Nevada (Paradise Jam champions) and Gonzaga and Oregon on the road, both of whom will be playing in the Battle 4 Atlantis that gets underway today. Jabari Narcis averages 12.0 points a game and 8.2 rebounds a game for the Mavs.

Furman opened up their season with 3 straight wins against D-1 competition (at Gardner-Webb, Loyola-Chicago and at Charleston Southern) before losing at Alabama. The Paladins won their first Atlantis mainland game at Elon in a decisive 97-61 blowout win yesterday. Jordan Lyons leads the Paladins in scoring with 16.4 points a game so far this season.

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News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Tuesday, Nov 26th

CLICK HERE for the latest Hoops HD Report where we discuss all the action in the exempt tournaments, and more!

NEWS AND NOTES

-For John Stalica’s UTR Game of the Day between Miami OH and South Alabama – CLICK HERE

-Let’s begin out in Maui, where Virginia Tech pulled off a stunning upset against #3 Michigan State.  I don’t think there has ever been a single game that shifted my opinion about a team more than that one did.  VA Tech lost all five of their starters from a season ago, along with their head coach.  All the buckets appeared to be empty and they looked like one of the bottom two teams in the ACC.  Now all of a sudden they are undefeated with a road win at Clemson (which is Clemson’s only loss) and a neutral floor win against Michigan State.  This is a solid top 25 caliber team.  24 hours ago I would have told you they were not even a top 100 team.

Also impressive out in Maui was Dayton, who will face Virginia Tech tonight.  They blew past a talented (but young) Georgia team in their game yesterday, and it will be interesting to see if they can keep that momentum going tonight.

-Cincinnati needed overtime to get past Valparaiso.  The good news for Cincinnati is that they’ve been winning their games.  The bad news is that they haven’t looked impressive at all in doing so.  The coaching change is probably effecting them since the style he wants to play is something they’re not used to, but to barely beat Illinois State, then lose to Bowling Green, and then barely beat Valpo….it wasn’t exactly a strong showing for them down at the Paradise Jam.

-Pittsburgh picked up a nice win against a pretty good Kansas State team, which was kind of a surprise.  Pitt now has wins against Florida State and K State, and a loss to Nicholls.  #SchizophrenicPitt

-Butler pretty much rolled past Missouri.  Butler looked to be shorthanded coming into the year, and then they lost a few more players to injury within the first couple of games, so I wasn’t expecting much from them at all.  But, they’re unbeaten and have some pretty good wins.  And on top of that, they’re starting to get healthy again.

-Stanford was another team that I wasn’t expecting much out of, but they are undefeated and looked pretty good yesterday as they absolutely rolled over Oklahoma.   Their game against Butler tonight should be a good one.

-Richmond picked up a huge win over Wisconsin.  Suddenly you have to sit up and take notice of the Spiders who are undefeated and now have a couple of notable wins on their resume.  If they can somehow knock off Auburn tonight then we may be talking Top 25 for the Spiders.

-Arkansas remained unbeaten with a bank-shot game winning three pointer at the end of overtime to knock off Georgia Tech on the road.  That’s a pretty good start for the Razorbacks.

-Nevada picked up their third straight win to win the Paradise Jam, which gets them to 5-3 on the year after a somewhat sluggish start.

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-NEW MEXICO STATE VS SOUTH FLORIDA (Cayman Islands Classic).  Both of these team were set up to have big years, and I suppose that they still can, but as for now they are both dealing with big time injuries that are impacting their teams.  Still, the winner will move on to the finals of this event tomorrow.

-GEORGIA VS MICHIGAN STATE (Maui Invitational).  Georgia lost big to Dayton yesterday, which may have been a bit of a wake up call for this young roster, but they’ve got another huge test today against a Michigan State team that fell to Virginia Tech in a really big upset.  Both teams are looking to bounce back and get notable neutral floor win on their resume.

-UCLA VS CHAMINADE (nondiv1) (Maui Invitational).  If UCLA loses this one then they are really in trouble.

-WISCONSIN VS NEW MEXICO (Legends Classic).  It’s the third place game, but that means absolutely nothing.  It counts the same as it would if this were just a regular season one-off on a neutral floor.  Wisconsin suffered a somewhat surprising loss to Richmond yesterday and is looking to bounce back against a decent New Mexico team that’s still looking for its first really big win.

-WICHITA STATE VS SOUTH CAROLINA (Cancun Challenge).  Wichita State is unbeaten and has looked pretty good, but they haven’t been challenged the way that they likely will be in this event.  South Carolina has just one loss and this is a chance for them to pick up some notable wins as well.

-APPALACHIAN STATE AT EAST TENNESSEE STATE.  ETSU is good enough to land inside the bubble this March, but they have to keep winning and avoid losses in games like this.

-ARIZONA STATE AT PRINCETON.  Kind of an odd road game for the Sun Devils, but it’s a winnable road game which will help out their resume more than just a regular home buy game would.

-FURMAN AT ELON.  A win for Furman gets them to 6-1 on the year, as well as their third road win of the season

-OKLAHOMA VS MISSOURI (Hall of Fame Classic).  Both teams have looked good at times, but both could also use a notable win on their resume, so this game does have a bit of a sense of urgency to it.  That being said, both will have many opportunities between now and the end of the year to prove themselves to the selection committee.

-AUBURN VS RICHMOND (Legends Classic). Richmond has been fun to watch this season, and they picked up a huge win against Wisconsin yesterday to get to the championship game tonight against an unbeaten Auburn team that absolutely steamrolled New Mexico.  It’s a resume building opportunity for both teams.

-GEORGE MASON VS NEBRASKA (Cayman Islands Classic).  Nebraska has been awful this year and George Mason has been better than expected.  They can continue to add neutral floor wins to their resume if they can get past the Huskers.

-CENTRAL MICHIGAN AT DEPAUL.  This is a buy game, but since Central Michigan has just one loss and since DePaul is unbeaten I guess we will go ahead and highlight it.

-DAYTON VS VIRGINIA TECH (Maui Invitational).  Dayton just looked fantastic in their win against Georgia, and in one sense you wanted to see what they could do against a heavyweight like Michigan State, but in another sense you’re excited to see what they can do against a Virginia Tech team that appears to be a much bigger heavyweight than what anyone realized.  This one should be fun tonight, and like so many of these games it’s a resume building opportunity.

-NORTHERN IOWA VS WEST VIRGINIA (Cancun Challenge).  A really interesting game here between a Northern Iowa team that we think is one of the better UTR teams out there, and a West Virginia team that’s looking to have a bounce back season.  Both teams come into this one unbeaten.

-WYOMING VS TCU (MGM Resorts Main Event).  TCU is off to a fairly decent start, but needs to bounce back from their overtime loss to Clemson and take advantage of some winnable games away from home like this one.

-STANFORD VS BUTLER (Hall of Fame Classic).  I didn’t expect either of these teams to be good this year, especially Butler with all of the injuries they’ve dealt with, but both have looked fantastic and both have knocked off some solid opponents along the way.  This should be a fun one tonight.

-KANSAS VS BYU (Maui Invitational).  BYU has been up and down this season, whereas Kansas has pretty much been up ever since they lost their season opener to Duke in what was a very close game.  The winner moves on to the championship game tomorrow night.

-COLORADO VS CLEMSON (MGM Resorts Main Event).  Both teams are coming into this with quite a bit of momentum, and a win in this game would look good on an NCAA Tournament resume, so it should be a fun one.

 

BUY GAMES (and equivalencies)

-Hampton @ San Francisco
-Fairleigh Dickinson @ Notre Dame
-NJIT @ Rutgers
-Lindenwood (nondiv1) @ Illinois
-Houston Baptist @ Houston
-SFA @ Duke
-UC Davis @ California

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Under The Radar – Tuesday, November 26th

For yesterday’s Hoops HD Report podcast – CLICK HERE

For the latest Hoops HD bracket forecast featuring Joby’s Nitty Gritty Rankings – CLICK HERE

Miami University (4-1, 3-1 D1) vs. South Alabama (4-2, 2-2 D1) – 5:00 PM EST (FloHoops.com)

Today’s UTR Game of the Day takes place in Estero, Florida – home of the Gulf Coast Showcase. South Alabama earned their way into today’s semifinal round with a 74-62 victory against Northeastern in their tournament opener. Josh Ajayi had a double-double with 14 points and 10 rebounds; Chad Lott led the Jaguars with 19 points.

(Mother) Miami earned their way into today’s semifinal with a 67-59 victory against the Drake Bulldogs. Nike Sibande led the RedHawks with 16 points and 11 rebounds in yesterday’s victory. Since a season-opening loss at home to Wright State, Miami has won four straight games including yesterday’s win – their other notable result was an 84-80 victory at Purdue-Fort Wayne.

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The Hoops HD Report: November 25th

Chad, David, and John recap a very busy week in college basketball as the exempt tournaments have gotten into full swing.  We discuss Virginia Tech’s huge win over Michigan State, Florida winning the Charleston Classic and snapping out of their funk, Utah’s struggles in Myrtle Beach, Baylor’s big win over Villanova, and Cincinnati’s struggles down in the Paradise Jam.  We also discuss Richmond, Dayton, and Duquesne out of the Atlantic Ten and how they’re off to very good starts, and how strong the ACC continues to look.  All that, and more…

And for all you radio lovers, below is an audio only version of the show…

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Bracket Projections – JNG Style!!

CLICK HERE to view the JNG Rankings for all 353 teams, which are updated Daily

For today’s News, Notes, and Games – CLICK HERE

So if you regularly follow the JNG Rankings, you know this already, but Joby Fortson has managed to build what is hands down the most accurate quantitative ranking system when it comes to predicting the selection committee.  His JNG rankings more accurately predict the NCAA Tournament field and seedings than what many respected “Bracketologists” are able to do, and they have the luxury of doing it qualitatively.  It’s actually quite remarkable.  I’m not sure how he does it.  How can he come up with a mathematical formula that so accurately predicts a qualitative process??  I don’t know.  But, he’s done it!

Now, it’s important to realize that his rankings always reflect what things would look like if the season ended today.  It makes no predictions of what will happen down the road.  So when you’re at the point where we are now where teams have only played 5-7 games, you see some things that appear to be out of whack.  Every year, without fail, there are a bunch of nincompoops running around screaming about how crazy all the different metrics look in the month of November, be it the RPI, the JNG, the NET, or whatever.  This causes many who manage these types of rankings to either make adjustments so they won’t be overrun with nincompoops complaining about their rankings, or simply just not release it until it starts to “look right.”  So, if this doesn’t “look right” to you, DO NOT BE A NINCOMPOOP!!  Realize that it’s only based on what’s happened so far, and if a team that’s highly ranked in the AP and coaches poll has still done nothing other than win home buy games, that will be reflected in his rankings because if Selection Sunday comes and that’s all they’ve done, then they’ll be watching the Tournament on television.

Below the bracket are some of my thoughts, as well as some thoughts from the man himself.

Bracket and rankings reflect all games played through Sunday, November 24th

 

COMMENTS FROM JOBY

-The ACC is very high on the list holding the top 3 spots thanks to starting conference play week 1.  That allows for quality wins away from home in the case of Virginia and Louisville.  Then add to the fact Duke won on a neutral court against another team in the field and you have an ACC friendly bracket to start.

-Some conferences getting more teams than conventional widsom are the Pac-12 with 6 and A-10 with 3.  The WCC has two but besides Gonzaga, it is not St Mary’s but the Dons of San Francisco that make the field.

-Only 11 teams with a loss make the field at this stage and no team with 2, though Villanova and Florida come close.  You have to go with what has occurred and an undefeated team gets extra credit.  At this early stage, that goose egg in the loss column looks really good as it reflects a team that can still go 30-0 even if they likely will not.

-While losses hurt compared to undefeated teams, if you also get a road win against Seton Hall, you can rebound and get back to the protected seed level.  Sparty will likely continue to climb back to the #1 seed line over the rest of the season.

-A shout out to 3 teams in the JNG protected seed range that the national media has not singled out yet but probably should have.  DePaul has been on a tear since their CBI finals run and is an impressive 6-0 that includes wins over Power 5 teams Iowa and Boston College.  Oklahoma St has not had too tough a schedule but has taken care of business including a road win against Charleston, which is a likely Quadrant 2 win.  Temple is undefeated with a nice win over Southern California on the road.  The Trojans are among the last 4 out.

-Speaking of last 4 out.  Those teams along with Southern Cal are Illinois, Memphis and Dayton.  All 4 of those teams made several preseason projected brackets, and they are still in a position to take advantage of that status.

-Only two undefeated teams do not make the field.  The aforementioned Dayton (who truth be told has only played 3 games against a ho-hum schedule) and Indiana.  I think Indiana is trying to mimic NC State from last year.  All home buy games and their SOS is 349th!!  C’mon Hoosiers, there is no excuse for that.  Even Dayton played your instate compatriot Indiana St, which would be an improvement to the dreck that IU has played.

COMMENTS FROM DAVID

-Two teams that seem to be ranked much higher than how good they actually are are Sacramento State and Eastern Michigan.  I don’t know as much about this as Joby does, but it does make sense.  Sacramento State is unbeaten, they’ve got two wins away from home, and they’ve beaten Pepperdine and UC Riverside, both of whom have notable wins.  If they beat Colorado in their next game, or are simply able to stay on the floor with them, then we’ll talk.  But for now I think it is more of the math being thrown off by playing and beating teams that aren’t that good, but that have still managed to beat people.

-Same with Eastern Michigan.  Unbeaten, but unchallenged and….actually, that one does have me a little confused.  I mean, they really haven’t been challenged AT ALL!!  At least they have two neutral court and 1 road win as part of their 6.

-Is Kent State the #18 team in the nation??  Probably not, but they’re also probably better than what most people think.  A top 100 win over Wright St away from home gives them a lot of strength.

-Is Delaware the #23 team in the nation??  Probably not, but for now they’re unbeaten, they’ve won away from home (5 of their 6 games have been outside the friendly confines of the First State), and they’ve sort of earned that spot.

-Kentucky comes in on the #8 line.  They do have a spectacular win against Michigan State, but that was also cancelled out by the home loss to Evansville, and Evansville has been terrible since that game.  The good win and bad loss sort of balance each other out.  No worries for Kentucky, though.  They are legit and I believe there are many many many more good wins along the way.

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