SURVIVAL BOARD (click here to view)
-If New Hampshire loses to Albany, and Maine wins at home against UMass Lowell, then New Hampshire will be eliminated.
NEWS AND NOTES
-Duke came up short at Virginia Tech. Both teams were without key players, and that will be factored in some, but only some. It’s still a big win for Virginia Tech, and even if you want to penalize Duke for the loss, their resume is still tons better than everyone else’s and I don’t think it moves them off the #1 line, and perhaps not even out of the top spot. Duke has 3 wins this year against teams IN THE TOP 4!!!! Two of those are away from home, and they have additional wins over highly ranked teams like Texas Tech, Florida State, and Louisville away from home. Duke is okay. They really are.
-Kentucky took the first half off against Arkansas, but showed up for the second half to come back and win. They’ve still get a path to the #1 line if they can finish strong.
-Wisconsin had an awful shooting night and ended up losing to Indiana in double overtime. I’ll say this for the Hoosiers. They haven’t won much since the start of the New Year, but when they have won it has been spectacular. I personally think they still have a ton of work to do to get back in the discussion, but a strong finish will get them a serious look based on what they did earlier in the year.
-Iowa was blown out by Ohio State. It was a really nice win for the Buckeyes who were in relatively good shape, but only relatively. This win will go a long way toward stabilizing them.
-TCU continues to lose whenever they leave home. They fell at West Virginia in triple overtime last night. It was an exciting game with a rather disastrous result for a TCU team that really didn’t need a disastrous result right now.
-Temple fell at Memphis, which is rather damaging. They were right on the bubble, and needed that road win to help keep them on the right side of the fence.
HIGHLIGHTED GAMES
-MARYLAND AT PENN STATE (Big Ten). I would say that this is some low hanging fruit for Maryland due to it being an easy opportunity at a road win, but Penn State has surprised some people at home this year, so the Terps can’t just sleepwalk and beat them.
-GEORGIA TECH AND VIRGINIA (ACC). Chances are, Virginia can sleepwalk, and beat them.
-TENNESSEE AT OLE MISS (SEC). This is a big game for both teams for two different reasons. Tennessee is trying to end a two game skid and finish the season strongly enough to earn a #1 seed, and Ole Miss is looking for a signature win in a showcase game that could help improve their seeding.
-HOUSTON AT EAST CAROLINA (American). Houston shouldn’t have too much trouble winning this one. If they can win out then they could get as high as the #2 line.
-OKLAHOMA STATE AT TEXAS TECH (Big 12). Texas Tech has provem that they are an extremely dangerous team, especially at home. A strong finish to the season should earn them a protected seed.
-CLEMSON AT PITTSBURGH (ACC). Clemson is squarely on the bubble, so every game from here on out will have a pivotal feel to it. It will either feel like they cannot afford to lose it because their opponent is weak, or they need to win it to help improve their resume. This game falls into the former category.
-DEPAUL AT GEORGETOWN (Big East). If Georgetown has a path to an at-large, then it involves winning out.
-UCF AT SOUTH FLORIDA (American). UCF is squarely on the bubble, and with limited chances at big wins they have almost no margin for error whatsoever. It’s not easy winning games like this on the road, but making the tournament isn’t easy either.
-ILLINOIS AT PURDUE (Big Ten). Illinois may be one of the most improved teams in the country from the beginning of January until now. The problem is that they’re still a thousand miles from making the NCAA Tournament, and I don’t think they’re so much improved that they can take down a likely protected seed like Purdue on the road.
-MARQUETTE AT VILLANOVA (Big East). A few weeks ago, after the first meeting between these two, I was SOOO excited for this game tonight!! The problem is that Nova has won just one game since then and hasn’t exactly been playing top 25 caliber teams. So the narrative has gone from a showcase game between two probable protected seeds to Marquette needing a big road win to help cement them as a protected seed and Nova needing a win just to get their momentum back.
-CINCINNATI AT SMU (American). I think Cincinnati can cruise to the top half of the bracket as long as they keep winning. I’m very curious to see how this team does when they face Houston for a second, and perhaps even a third, time.
-TEXAS AT BAYLOR (Big 12). Both teams are likely NCAA Tournament teams, but both could also use some improvement when it came to their resume and seeding. Plus, it’s a rivalry game, so it’s still a big game for both teams.
-AUBURN AT GEORGIA (SEC). The best thing I can say about Auburn this year is that other than South Carolina they’ve not lost any games to teams outside the bubble. That should be enough to get them into the field. But, they need to keep it up.
-FLORIDA AT VANDERBILT (SEC). Florida appears to be inside the bubble for now, but not far enough inside to where they can just skate on in. A loss tonight would be pretty damaging.
-LOUISVILLE AT BOSTON COLLEGE (ACC). When you look at Louisville some would say that they’ve been in a tailspin. Well, they’ve been in a tailspin against top ten teams. BC is NOT a top ten team. If they fail to win this one, then they can panic.
-UNLV AT NEVADA (Mountain West). This is a huge mismatch. It is a rivalry, but one team is way short of making the NIT, and the other will easily land in the top half of the bracket.
UNDER THE RADAR
-RADFORD AT HIGH POINT (Big South). VERY exciting finish in the Big South. Radford has just a one game lead on Campbell with two games remaining. And the season finale is against Campbell! The first place finisher gets to host the conference tournament.
-CAMPBELL AT USC UPSTATE (Big South). See the note above.
-UMBC AT STONY BROOK (America East). Stony Brook is just a game back of Vermont, and UMBC is just a game back of Stony Brook. This is EXTREMELY pivotal! Stony Brook still has a chance to win the league and get home court advantage throughout the entire conference tournament. They could also lose today and only get to play at home in the quarterfinals.
-BUCKNELL AT NAVY (Patriot League). If Bucknell wins, then they clinch at least a share of first place in the PL, and since they swept Lehigh during the regular season I believe they lock up home court advantage in the PL Tourney with a win tonight.
-LOYOLA CHICAGO AT NORTHERN IOWA (Missouri Valley). Loyola Chicago is in a three way tie for first with Drake and Missouri State!! Which means….well…not a whole lot. The conference tournament is at a predetermined site, so all that’s really at stake is the color uniforms those teams will be wearing.
