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So if you regularly follow the JNG Rankings, you know this already, but Joby Fortson has managed to build what is hands down the most accurate quantitative ranking system when it comes to predicting the selection committee. His JNG rankings more accurately predict the NCAA Tournament field and seedings than what many respected “Bracketologists” are able to do, and they have the luxury of doing it qualitatively. It’s actually quite remarkable. I’m not sure how he does it. How can he come up with a mathematical formula that so accurately predicts a qualitative process?? I don’t know. But, he’s done it!
Now, it’s important to realize that his rankings always reflect what things would look like if the season ended today. It makes no predictions of what will happen down the road. So when you’re at the point where we are now where teams have only played 5-7 games, you see some things that appear to be out of whack. Every year, without fail, there are a bunch of nincompoops running around screaming about how crazy all the different metrics look in the month of November, be it the RPI, the JNG, the NET, or whatever. This causes many who manage these types of rankings to either make adjustments so they won’t be overrun with nincompoops complaining about their rankings, or simply just not release it until it starts to “look right.” So, if this doesn’t “look right” to you, DO NOT BE A NINCOMPOOP!! Realize that it’s only based on what’s happened so far, and if a team that’s highly ranked in the AP and coaches poll has still done nothing other than win home buy games, that will be reflected in his rankings because if Selection Sunday comes and that’s all they’ve done, then they’ll be watching the Tournament on television.
Below the bracket are some of my thoughts, as well as some thoughts from the man himself.
Bracket and rankings reflect all games played through Sunday, November 24th
COMMENTS FROM JOBY
-The ACC is very high on the list holding the top 3 spots thanks to starting conference play week 1. That allows for quality wins away from home in the case of Virginia and Louisville. Then add to the fact Duke won on a neutral court against another team in the field and you have an ACC friendly bracket to start.
-Some conferences getting more teams than conventional widsom are the Pac-12 with 6 and A-10 with 3. The WCC has two but besides Gonzaga, it is not St Mary’s but the Dons of San Francisco that make the field.
-Only 11 teams with a loss make the field at this stage and no team with 2, though Villanova and Florida come close. You have to go with what has occurred and an undefeated team gets extra credit. At this early stage, that goose egg in the loss column looks really good as it reflects a team that can still go 30-0 even if they likely will not.
-While losses hurt compared to undefeated teams, if you also get a road win against Seton Hall, you can rebound and get back to the protected seed level. Sparty will likely continue to climb back to the #1 seed line over the rest of the season.
-A shout out to 3 teams in the JNG protected seed range that the national media has not singled out yet but probably should have. DePaul has been on a tear since their CBI finals run and is an impressive 6-0 that includes wins over Power 5 teams Iowa and Boston College. Oklahoma St has not had too tough a schedule but has taken care of business including a road win against Charleston, which is a likely Quadrant 2 win. Temple is undefeated with a nice win over Southern California on the road. The Trojans are among the last 4 out.
-Speaking of last 4 out. Those teams along with Southern Cal are Illinois, Memphis and Dayton. All 4 of those teams made several preseason projected brackets, and they are still in a position to take advantage of that status.
-Only two undefeated teams do not make the field. The aforementioned Dayton (who truth be told has only played 3 games against a ho-hum schedule) and Indiana. I think Indiana is trying to mimic NC State from last year. All home buy games and their SOS is 349th!! C’mon Hoosiers, there is no excuse for that. Even Dayton played your instate compatriot Indiana St, which would be an improvement to the dreck that IU has played.
COMMENTS FROM DAVID
-Two teams that seem to be ranked much higher than how good they actually are are Sacramento State and Eastern Michigan. I don’t know as much about this as Joby does, but it does make sense. Sacramento State is unbeaten, they’ve got two wins away from home, and they’ve beaten Pepperdine and UC Riverside, both of whom have notable wins. If they beat Colorado in their next game, or are simply able to stay on the floor with them, then we’ll talk. But for now I think it is more of the math being thrown off by playing and beating teams that aren’t that good, but that have still managed to beat people.
-Same with Eastern Michigan. Unbeaten, but unchallenged and….actually, that one does have me a little confused. I mean, they really haven’t been challenged AT ALL!! At least they have two neutral court and 1 road win as part of their 6.
-Is Kent State the #18 team in the nation?? Probably not, but they’re also probably better than what most people think. A top 100 win over Wright St away from home gives them a lot of strength.
-Is Delaware the #23 team in the nation?? Probably not, but for now they’re unbeaten, they’ve won away from home (5 of their 6 games have been outside the friendly confines of the First State), and they’ve sort of earned that spot.
-Kentucky comes in on the #8 line. They do have a spectacular win against Michigan State, but that was also cancelled out by the home loss to Evansville, and Evansville has been terrible since that game. The good win and bad loss sort of balance each other out. No worries for Kentucky, though. They are legit and I believe there are many many many more good wins along the way.
