Chad’s Bracket – February 17

It is Chad’s turn to put up a bracket this week.  Please note that this Bracket is my statement of what *I* personally feel the NCAA Tournament bracket should look like through all games of Sunday, February 17.  THIS IS NOT AN ATTEMPT TO GUESS THE COMMITTEE.  Rather, this is what I think the Bracket should look like.  Following the Bracket are some notes I wrote and comments from other staffers here at Hoops HD.  Feel free to Tweet at me (@csherwood_1973) with any other comments.

CHAD’S NOTES

– My last four teams in were Auburn, Alabama, Temple and Oklahoma.  The top four teams out were Furman, Florida, Clemson and Murray State.  The next four out were Utah State, Arizona State, UCF and Nebraska.  Also considered were UNC-Greensboro, Georgetown, Liberty, Butler, Tulsa, Davidson and Indiana.

– As I said, this is what *I THINK* the Bracket should look like.  68 TEAMS IS STUPID, ESPECIALLY IN A YEAR WITH SUCH TRASH ON THE BUBBLE AS WE HAVE THIS SEASON!!!!  I HAVE FIXED IT!!!!!!!

– Had I gone with 68, Furman, Florida, Clemson and Murray State would be in the field, playing in Dayton.  At least I can say that I would love to see two of those teams in, and I am not talking about Clemson or Florida.

– The top 8 teams were fairly easy and I doubt there will be any serious debate about my 1 and 2 seeds.  On the three line, Kansas’ recent 3-game win streak has them back solidly on the 3 line in my opinion.  Florida State and LSU are both on the 4 line, and are a pair of red-hot teams right now.

– Villanova’s Sunday loss to St John’s has helped expose their profile as somewhat flimsy overall.  They lack any truly great wins and have a couple bad losses.  That is a 6 seed profile, not a protected seed.

– Minnesota and Syracuse were the top 2 teams on my 10 line.  Below that, I hated every single team.  NC State and Auburn have garbage profiles.  Alabama and Temple are just as bad, and Oklahoma at least finally won a game this weekend, and being on the road at TCU, it was the Sooners best win of the season.  I would have Wofford, Lipscomb and VCU all above the last team in, and Belmont would have been better than a couple of my First Four teams had I let those teams into my field.

– Before anyone (this means you Stalica!) yells at me for letting Yale get a home court advantage by playing in Hartford, I would note that they are on the 12 line.  The rule that protects teams from playing at a home court disadvantage in the first round only protects the top 4 seed lines (hence, the term protected seeds).  Sorry Purdue.

– The bracket has a handful of fascinating matchups, including Virginia Tech vs VCU and Washington vs Syracuse.  The South Region also looks totally stacked (sorry Virginia).

STAFF COMMENTS

COMMENTS FROM DAVID

-I hate agreeing with Chad, and I hate complimenting him even more, but I applaud how he went rogue and just decided to shorten the field back down to 64!  Last week I took a D2 team!  This week Chad has shortened the field.  Who knows what Stalica will do next week?  He may decide that San Diego is a nicer city than San Jose, and simply move the games down there!

-I’m not quite getting Purdue on the #5 line.  They’re 9-1 in their last ten games and have a very good win at Wisconsin.  They jump out at me a little more than Marquette or Florida State.

-I realize most will disagree with this, but I think I’m to a point to where I like Wofford more than Buffalo.  I know they’re not as high in the rankings, and that the real committee won’t evaluate them that way, but they are unbeaten in a league that’s at least as good, and probably better, than the MAC.  They’ve got 8 true road wins, and ETSU and UNCG are a combined 20-3 at home.  Two of those three losses are to Wofford.  Part of it is an eye test thing, but I think if the two were to play on a neutral floor Wofford would beat them.

-Oklahoma has no business in the field.  None.  I know he’s not big on Utah State, but at least they’ve won games against decent teams (albeit not good, but at least decent) and they’ve won away from home.  I just can’t look at a team that’s lost that much in league play and take them.

-I like that he’s come around to Iowa State and Kansas State!  He’s been listening to me!  He’s finally doing something right!

COMMENTS FROM JOHN

-I wouldn’t be sold on Tennessee being the overall #3 seed upon further review of the profiles of all the #1 seed contenders. In fact, I could argue that they could even be as low as #6 overall if you just look at quality wins compared to Gonzaga, Kentucky and Michigan State. I’d even have Gonzaga and Michigan State rounding out the 1s with Kentucky and Tennessee right below them for the time being.

-I’d even argue that LSU could be as high as the 3 line now with their win at Kentucky last week, although it is tough to argue them compared to teams like Iowa State and Kansas State in the Big 12. I’d say Kansas should be at the top of the 4 line in this case.

-Other than that, the only other swap I’d argue for in the top 10 lines would be TCU and Syracuse. Similarly meh profiles, so I’d give the Orange more points for winning at Duke than I would for TCU winning at Iowa State. Neither team has followed up those wins with anything significant, though.

-I’m going to go the other way from the Puppet on Oklahoma. If we’re going to punish teams like NC State with Charmin-soft schedules, Oklahoma should get rewarded for a tough schedule (noncon AND the Big 12) and just enough wins to squeak by. For mid-major fans (i.e. Lipscomb, Toledo, UNC-Greensboro) howling at the moon over my choice, I’d say that you better win your conference tournaments if you want to feel confident about getting your dance cards punched.

-We have a Centenary category that adds the worst team in Division I to the Under Consideration board. We added a Stallings category last year for the worst team in the Power 5 conferences. What is the mystery category that Chad is unveiling that justifies Tulsa to be under consideration this year?

-Finally, I have to commend Michigan for tanking their game against Penn State just so they don’t have to go to Columbus for their subregional. Now they are protected from having to play what amounts to road games in the Des Moines subregional (as opposed to Columbus).

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News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Monday, Feb 18th

-MSG was sold out, which is great for a Saint John’s team that has really made huge strides this year!  But then the game started and Nova was blowing them off the court, and all signs pointed toward that continuing throughout the entire game.  Even a three quarters length shot just before the half (and Nova really shouldn’t leave guys open like that!!) didn’t seem to indicate that the Johnnies would win.  But they had a fantastic second half, got the win, and now appear to be cruising to the top half of the bracket.  Here’s the thing about the Johnnies.  They do have some headscratching losses in Big East play, but against Marquette and Nova, they are 3-1, and nearly won the game at Nova that they lost.

-Arizona lost their seventh game in a row yesterday.  They’ve completely disappeared.  Maybe that’s their plan!  Maybe they don’t want anyone else from the FBI to find them!

-VIRGINIA AT VIRGINIA TECH (ACC).  This is Part 2 of the annual rivalry.  Part 1 was more of a slaughter than a basketball game, but VA Tech playing at home changes things completely.  A win for UVA gets them closer to cementing a #1 seed.  A win for VA Tech improves their profile and probably earns them a better seed.

-ILLINOIS AT WISCONSIN (Big Ten).  Normally a team that’s five games below .500 playing on the road against a team that’s ranked in the top 25 and has a path to a protected seed is a game that you’d pretty much dismiss as just being a winnable home game, but Illinois is suddenly on fire.  They’ve won four in a row, and beaten Ohio State and Michigan State in the process.  They’ll need the auto bid to make the NCAA Tournament, but they’re certainly good enough to break quite a bit of stuff in the Big Ten between now and the end.

-KANSAS STATE AT WEST VIRGINIA (Big 12).  K State is looking to rebound from a rough loss at home to Iowa State over the weekend.  This is a good game for them to do it because it’s a winnable conference road game.

-TCU AT OKLAHOMA STATE (Big 12).  TCU has struggled away from home, and over the past week has also struggled at home.  This is a road game that they simply need to win, because it’s against a team that’s nowhere near the NIT, much less the NCAA Tournament.

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Under The Radar Game of the Day: Missouri State at Loyola-Chicago

For Jon Teitel’s latest Bracketology where he attempts to forecast the Selection Committee – CLICK HERE

For today’s News, Notes and Highlighted Games – CLICK HERE

Missouri State (14-12, 8-5 MVC) at Loyola-Chicago (16-10, 9-4 MVC) – 4:00 PM EST (ESPNU)

Today’s UTR Game of the Day takes us to Chicago where the Ramblers of Loyola will play host to the Missouri State Bears in a matchup of Top 3 teams in the Valley. Missouri State won the first matchup between both teams quite handily and held Loyola to a season-low 35 points in the process of that game. The Bears started the year 2-4 in the Valley, but they now have won six out of their last seven games to get back into contention for the regular season crown. One of those games was a dramatic win at the buzzer against Illinois State where Jarrod Dixon picked up a loose ball near mid-court and hit a half-court shot at the buzzer to give the Bears a 66-65 win last Sunday.

Loyola continues to lead the Missouri Valley Conference, but they have been more of a homecourt hero in the process. All four losses in conference play were on the road (even last-place Evansville beat the Ramblers), but Loyola is a perfect 6-0 at home in conference play and will play three of their final five games at home in Gentile Arena. Nonetheless, Loyola still had a big win at Drake that is ultimately responsible for them being in first place, and they do have a season sweep of the Bulldogs in the event a tiebreaker is needed. Marques Townes leads Loyola with 15.3 points per game; Cameron Krutwig also averages 14.3 points a game and 7.6 rebounds as well.

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Bracketology 2019: March Madness Predictions (Version 7.0)

CLICK HERE for today’s News, Notes, and Highlighted Games

We are only 4 weeks away from Selection Sunday as we continue to make our NCAA tourney predictions. Last March HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel correctly picked 66 of the 68 teams that made the tourney, 65 of which were within 1 spot of their actual seed, including 42 right on the money. He will spend the upcoming weeks predicting which 68 teams will hear their names called on March 17th. See below for his list of who would make the cut if they picked the field today and if you agree or disagree then feel free to tweet us. To see how we stack up with other websites (ranked 9th out of 127 entries over the past 5 years), check out: www.bracketmatrix.com

SEED: TEAM (CONFERENCE)
1: Duke (ACC)
1: Virginia (ACC)
1: Tennessee (SEC)
1: Gonzaga (WCC)

2: Kentucky (SEC)
2: Michigan State (Big 10)
2: Michigan (Big 10)
2: North Carolina (ACC)

3: Kansas (Big 12)
3: Houston (AAC)
3: Marquette (Big East)
3: Purdue (Big 10)

4: LSU (SEC)
4: Nevada (MWC)
4: Texas Tech (Big 12)
4: Louisville (ACC)

5: Villanova (Big East)
5: Wisconsin (Big 10)
5: Iowa State (Big 12)
5: Kansas State (Big 12)

6: Maryland (Big 10)
6: Virginia Tech (ACC)
6: Florida State (ACC)
6: Iowa (Big 10)

7: Mississippi State (SEC)
7: Cincinnati (AAC)
7: Buffalo (MAC)
7: Washington (Pac-12)

8: Mississippi (SEC)
8: Baylor (Big 12)
8: Auburn (SEC)
8: TCU (Big 12)

9: Ohio State (Big 10)
9: Texas (Big 12)
9: Syracuse (ACC)
9: St. John’s (Big East)

10: NC State (ACC)
10: Wofford (SoCon)
10: Alabama (SEC)
10: Oklahoma (Big 12)

11: Minnesota (Big 10)
11: VCU (A-10)
11: Seton Hall (Big East)
11: UCF (AAC)

12: Clemson (ACC)
12: Arizona State (Pac-12)
12: Lipscomb (Atlantic Sun)
12: Indiana (Big 10)
12: Temple (AAC)
12: Murray State (OVC)

13: New Mexico State (WAC)
13: Hofstra (CAA)
13: Yale (Ivy)
13: Vermont (America East)

14: Old Dominion (C-USA)
14: UC Irvine (Big West)
14: South Dakota State (Summit)
14: Northern Kentucky (Horizon)

15: Texas State (Sun Belt)
15: Radford (Big South)
15: Loyola-Chicago (MVC)
15: Montana (Big Sky)

16: Bucknell (Patriot)
16: Sam Houston State (Southland)
16: Norfolk State (MEAC)
16: Prairie View (SWAC)
16: St. Francis PA (NEC)
16: Monmouth (MAAC)

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News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Sunday, Feb 17th

NEWS AND NOTES

-The game that most people were most looking forward to was pretty good for a half, and then blown open at the beginning of the second half.  Kentucky just blew Tennessee’s doors off, and even though it was a home game it was still one of the more impressive showings we’ve seen out of any team this year.  Tennessee could still end up on the #1 line, and they will face Kentucky at least once more prior to Selection Sunday, but the cement isn’t dry on their #1 seed just yet.

-Michigan pulled off a rather decisive and impressive win against Maryland.  I’d say they’re over their little stumble against Penn State from earlier in the week.

-Texas Tech absolutely blitzed Baylor.  It’s not surprising that they won, but it is a little shocking that they blew them off the court, even though they were at home.  I’d say Texas Tech is now playing like a protected seed, and their remaining games give them a pathway to it.

-You could not have scripted a more fitting ending to a game being played between Louisville and Clemson than the one we saw yesterday.  Clemson has a history of losing heartbreakers, and Louisville has a sudden proneness to blowing leads.  Louisville led by 7 with less than a minute to go, and after several mistakes Clemson ended up with a last second shot that would have won them the game, but missed it.  Like I said…so fitting for both teams!.  On paper it’s a nice win for Louisville, but they need to figure out how to navigate the last few minutes of a basketball game.  And Clemson…just needs some better luck!

-Iowa State was another team that was just unbelievably impressive yesterday.  They went into Kansas State and basically had a comfortable lead from tip to buzzer.  I think this Iowa State team is a protected seed caliber team.  I hope others will start to come around to that after yesterday’s performance.

-LSU followed up their huge win at Kentucky with a near road loss at Georgia, but managed to hold on.

-Iowa was down 2 at Rutgers and threw up a desperation shot from the corner that was well defended.  The shot was so bad and so off the mark that it grazed the backboard….and then went in.  They escaped what would have been a somewhat damaging loss and ended up with another road win.

-Oklahoma finally pulled themselves out of their tailspin with a decisive win at TCU.  TCU has a win at Iowa State, but not much else.  I think they still have some work to do if they want to safely make the field.  That goes for Oklahoma as well, who is still 5 games below 500 in league play.

-Alabama, who is on the bubble, lost big at home to Florida, who isn’t.  That’s not a good loss.

-Indiana lost again.  They are now just 4-10 in Big Ten play and have lost 10 of their last 11.  At what point do we finally decide they’re not an NCAA Tournament team?

-VCU blew open a big lead against Dayton, then blew the lead, but managed to hold on for a one point win.  If any team out of the A10 is going to land inside the bubble, it’s VCU.

-Temple held on for a one point overtime win at South Florida.  They are squarely on the bubble, so every game they play has a pivotal feel for it.  South Florida isn’t a tournament team, but they’re still decent and the Owls should get some credit from the committee for beating them on the road.

-Wofford blew out UNC Greensboro, who some felt was the second best team in the SoCon.  The Terriers have clinched first place in the conference, and with three games remaining I think they’ll be inside the bubble and make the NCAAs no matter what happens in the conference tournament if they’re able to win two of them.

-Washington trailed Washington State for most of the game, and seemed to be heading toward a loss that would crush their resume, which is already a little flimsy, but they got the lead in the final minutes and held on to win 72-70

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-OHIO STATE AT MICHIGAN STATE (Big Ten).  Ohio State is coming off a somewhat surprising loss to Illinois, and although they’re still reasonably safe they are below 500 in league play and aren’t likely to win today, so that sense of urgency should be going up a little bit.  Michigan State is still on pace to land in the top two lines barring a collapse.

-WICHITA STATE AT CINCINNATI (American).  Cincinnati should land in the top half of the bracket so long as they’re able to hold serve the rest of the way, and that of course means winning at home against non-tournament caliber teams.

-HOUSTON AT TULANE (American).  This is a huge mismatch between a Houston team that will likely end up as a protected seed, and a Tulane team that’s winless in conference play.

-SETON HALL AT CREIGHTON (Big East).  Seton Hall seems to have fixed whatever was wrong.  This one won’t be easy given that it’s a road game, but if they were to pull it off they’d be 4-1 in their last five games, above 500 in the conference, and pick up their 3rd true road win.

-VILLANOVA AT SAINT JOHN’S (Big East).  This is a fun match up between a Villanova team that’s in first place and who’s only league loss came after a missed shot at the buzzer that would have won them the game at Marquette.  The Johnnies also have some really big wins, but they don’t always play up to their ceiling.  I bet they are jacked for today’s game, though, and it should be fun.

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Happy Tourney-versary!: HoopsHD interviews Coach Lee Rose

For Today’s UTR Game of the Day – CLICK HERE

For a rundown of all of today’s college hoops action – CLICK HERE

With the 2019 NCAA tourney tipping off next month, we will spend this month taking a walk down memory lane with a choice collection of players/coaches who are celebrating an awesome anniversary this year. From a comeback win to clinch the 1954 tourney title (65th anniversary) through a last-second loss in the 2014 Final 4 (5th anniversary), these legends have all carved out a little piece of history in past Marches. We continue our series with Lee Rose, who by any other name showed that Transylvania (University) is not such a scary place. After serving as both a player/coach for the Pioneers he commenced an amazing 5-year postseason run at 2 other schools: 1976 NIT runner-up and 1977 NCAA Final 4 as head coach at Charlotte, followed by 1979 NIT runner-up and 1980 NCAA Final 4 as head coach at Purdue. HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel got to chat with Coach Rose about the 40th anniversary of his 1979 NIT run all the way to the title game and working for a pair of Hall of Famers in the NBA.

At Transylvania University you played for Hall of Famer CM Newton and after graduation you served as his assistant: what made him such a good coach, and what was the most important thing that you ever learned from him? There were a lot of things that made him a good coach. He played on a national title team at Kentucky: I lived in Lexington and was a very big fan. My brother played with CM in high school in Ft. Lauderdale and won a title with him. He was a fan of Coach Adolph Rupp’s philosophy: good guard play, fast-break basketball, and preparation. I learned to be decisive and recruit athletes who would graduate.

Take me through the 1976 NIT as head coach/AD at Charlotte:
Cedric Maxwell scored 27 PTS and made as many FTs as the entire opposing team (13) in a 1-PT win over NC State: how were you able to survive the Wolfpack getting several good looks at the basket in the final 10 seconds? I did not survive: I died right there! We were only able to schedule a few ACC teams when I was at Charlotte and we had lost a close game to the Wolfpack earlier that season. I thought it might be deja vu, but they did not go in and it was a big win for us.

Maxwell had 24 PTS/11 REB en route to being named NIT MVP despite a 4-PT loss to Kentucky in the title game: do you think that you would have won if Coach Joe B. Hall had not switched to a 1-3-1 zone defense in the final few minutes? It might have been a good defensive ploy but our biggest problem was that our starting PG Bobby Ball could not play due to a bad back. Our backup PG turned his ankle in the final minute of the NC State game so we had to convert Melvin Watkins into a PG for the Kentucky game. When you have a young program you do not have as much depth as the major teams that contend for titles every season. Give Kentucky credit, but I had more things to worry about than their zone defense. Melvin is now an assistant coach at Arkansas.

In 1977 the Sporting News named you national COY: what did it mean to you to receive such an outstanding individual honor? It was a very high honor but I do not know how they pick people for those things. I was pleased/gratified.

Take me through the 1977 NCAA tourney:
Maxwell had 32 PTS/18 REB in a 5-PT OT win over Central Michigan in Bloomington: did you have a home-court advantage or were the Hoosier faithful rooting against you? I never felt that we had a home court advantage in the regional. They had a few shots at the end that rolled off: I am not a great coach in the final 10 seconds of a game.

Chad Kinch scored 11 PTS in a 7-PT win over top-ranked Michigan: where does Kinch’s dunk over Phil Hubbard rank among the best you have ever seen? When you include the significance of the game it is definitely the best dunk that any of my players ever had: it was a spectacular play.

Jerome Whitehead had 21 PTS/16 REB and made a tip-in at the buzzer in a 2-PT win by eventual champion Marquette: did you think it should have been called goaltending? There were 5 things they could call: 4 would have gone against us and 1 would have gone for us. The 5-second count almost elapsed, there was a possible foul, a walk, the goaltending, and we lost. I was told by the officials’ association that that play was used for years as an example of all the things to prepare for that can happen at the end of a game. Coach Dean Smith was ready to lead his team onto the floor: he told me that our player got fouled but there was nothing we could do about it. The call ended up coming from the official timer, which would probably not happen today due to instant replay.

You had an 8-PT loss to UNLV in the 3rd-place game: how on earth did you lose when Maxwell/Kinch each scored 30 PTS and had double-digit rebounds?! That UNLV team had 6 players drafted that spring! The Rebels had an extremely talented team and we had played our hardest against Marquette.

In the 1979 NIT title game Butch Carter made an off-balance jumper from the top of the key with 5 seconds left in a 1-PT win by the Hoosiers (the 1st-ever postseason meeting between the in-state rivals): what was it like to face Bobby Knight in the postseason, and where does that rank among the most devastating losses of your career? It was no different than facing Knight in the regular season: I was 3-3 against him. We could have won because we had a shot in the final seconds but we missed an 18-footer at the end. It was a good basket by Butch.

Take me through the 1980 NCAA tourney:
Joe Barry Carroll scored 17 PTS in a 5-PT loss to UCLA: what sort of a home-court advantage did you have (if any) playing at Market Square Arena? That was a different situation. Teams who get to the Final 4 by cheating have to vacate their wins and that UCLA team had to vacate their wins that year after Coach Larry Brown had some recruiting violations. There is no justice in that ruling: I think it is a rule that should be changed.

Carroll had 35 PTS (14-17 FG)/12 REB/4 BLK in the consolation game against Iowa and finished your 6 games with a tourney-record 158 PTS: how was he able to dominate for 3 straight weeks against the best teams in the country? Because he was our best player and we got him the ball! He was the #1 draft pick, had great hands, and shot the ball well. He was the epitome of a student-athlete and was a leader in every aspect of the program. We had good players but he carried us.

Take me through the 1985 World University Games in Japan as coach of Team USA:
You won each of your 1st 2 games against Jordan and Korea by 100+ PTS: how does your coaching style change when you are up by triple digits?! International tournaments involve some teams who cannot wait to take a team photo with you because they are so excited to play against the USA.

In the gold medal rematch against the USSR Valdemaras Khomitchus had a game-high 30 PTS including a 3-PT shot with 3 seconds left in a 3-PT win by the Soviet Union: what was it like to face the Soviets during the Cold War? We were the 1st team from a free country to participate in the Spartakiad. We flew into Moscow with Joe Barry, Herb Williams, and a couple of other future pros. They told us to get back on the plane because the facilities were not ready so we had to fly to Lithuania. Herb even broke the backboard on a dunk and shattered it into pieces! We were the guinea pigs to see what the food/lodging/transportation would be like when the real Olympians showed up.

You still rank in the top-75 all-time in winning percentage for coaches with a minimum of 10 years of D-1 experience: what made you such a great coach, and how were you able to be so successful at so many different schools? I had good players: you do not win without good players. I also had good people, which is a great combination. I moved around a lot but we just tried to make the best decisions that we could. 1 of my proudest coaching accomplishments came at South Florida. We would play against some of the other Florida schools ever year in a small tournament. In back-to-back years we beat Florida and Florida State, which really helped put our school on the map.

After retiring from the college ranks in 1986 you served as an assistant coach for 4 NBA teams (San Antonio/New Jersey/Milwaukee/Charlotte: what was it like to work for a pair of Hall of Fame players-turned-head-coaches like Willis Reed/Dave Cowens? I read something the other day that just because you are a Hall of Fame athlete does not mean that you will be a good instructor. If you check the record book, success does not always follow the best players. Cowens had 2 of his best seasons ever with me on the sideline. He asked me what problems he would encounter: I said that he was a blue-collar player who would be coaching players who made a lot more than him but would not work as hard as him. He did not agree with that but 2 years later he quit. Silas was a great player but he had a bad record with the Bobcats. Someone told me that if you did not play in the NBA you should not coach in the NBA, but I countered with championship coaches like Gregg Popovich/Erik Spoelstra.

You were a member of the selection committee for Dream Team 2, which ended up winning the gold medal at the 1994 FIBA World Championship in Toronto: how hard was it to come up with a 12-man roster, and how much pressure was there on you after the success of the original Dream Team? The coach has a chance to express what he wants to do. Lenny Wilkens was the coach and he gave his say-so as to who he was interested in. The thing you want to do is make sure your coaches are satisfied with the players they get. They won it all so there was not much controversy that year!

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