Hoops HD

NEWS AND NOTES

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-Monmouth and Chattanooga were teams we actually thought had a chance of making the NCAA Tournament without winning their conference tournament.  We now no longer feel that way.  Monmouth dropped their second conference game with a loss to Saint Peter’s last night, and Chattanooga fell to UNC Greensboro.  It’s not the lack of good wins that has hurt Monmouth the last two years.  It’s the bad losses.  I know it’s not easy to go on the road and win against anyone, but an NCAA Tournament caliber team is expected to beat sub NIT teams, much less sub CIT teams.  When a team like Monmouth goes out there and loses multiple games like that then the committee looks at that the same way they’d look at a power conference team losing a buy game.

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-ARKANSAS AT TENNESSEE (SEC).  Arkansas has a bloated record but very few of their wins have been of note.  Tennessee is hardly a great team, but they have been better than expected, they’ve been playing well lately, and they’ve lost just one home game.  It will be a test for Arkansas.

-OLE MISS AT FLORIDA (SEC).  The Gators have been playing well lately and shouldn’t have too much trouble beating a decent but not great Ole Miss team at home today.

-WISCONSIN AT INDIANA (Big Ten).  This is a big early season conference game for both teams.  Indiana has lost two straight and needs their momentum back, and while Wisky has had a good season they don’t have a win anywhere close to being as good as this one would be on their profile yet.

-NORTH CAROLINA AT CLEMSON (ACC).  UNC is coming off a very surprising loss to Georgia Tech and a solid road win would be a great way to rebound from that.  Clemson is off to their best start in several years, and a home win today could really energize their fanbase.

-BOSTON COLLEGE AT WAKE FOREST (ACC).  Wake needs to win just to stay in the race.  BC isn’t a good team, but they’re not nearly as bad of a team as we thought and with the signs of life they’ve shown Wake just can’t overlook them.

-SAINT JOSEPH’S AT RHODE ISLAND (Atlantic Ten).  Rhody needs to absolutely dominate this league in order to land inside the bubble come March, and that certainly means being able to beat sub NCAA Tournament caliber teams at home.

-EAST CAROLINA AT UCF (American).  UCF can make it to the NCAAs, but their margin for error is small.  Losing at home to a non tournament team like East Carolina would certainly fall outside of their margin for error.

-DAYTON AT SAINT BONAVENTURE (Atlantic Ten).  Dayton is another team that’s hovering around the bubble and has a very small margin for error.  The Bonnies are likely an NIT team, so this is the kind of game Dayton needs to be able to win if they themselves want to demonstrate that they’re an NCAA team.

-ALABAMA AT MISSISSIPPI STATE (SEC).  Mississippi State is much improved, but they’ll need to do very well in conference play in order to get the attention of the committee.

-TEXAS A&M AT KENTUCKY (SEC).  Kentucky seems destined for the #1 line and blowing through this conference should land them there.  TAMU’s profile is suddenly hurting and they’ll need to win some big games in conference.  This game would certainly qualify, but they’re probably swinging over their heads.

-OKLAHOMA AT TCU (Big Twelve).  TCU ran up a nice record against a weak schedule, which isn’t a bad thing for a program that’s trying to turn itself around to do.  Now that conference play has started they need to pick up some big wins in order to keep pace.

-KANSAS STATE AT KANSAS (Big Twelve).  Kansas is contending for the #1 line, and K State, while they just have one loss, is still contending for the NCAA Tournament.  Their wins aren’t all that great, but they can completely change the complexion of their profile if they somehow pull off the upset tonight.

-WEST VIRGINIA AT TEXAS TECH (Big Twelve).  West Virginia has had a great year with just one loss in a game where they really just had a bad half.  Any road game is tough, and tonight will be no exception as Texas Tech is unbeaten at home and looking for a notable win of their own, but if WVU is a top fifteen caliber team it’s the kind of game they should be able to win.

NEWS AND NOTES

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-The last day of 2016 was a busy day on the hardwood.  Duke and North Carolina both lost their conference openers.  Duke went down at Virginia Tech, who’s good, but it was still somewhat surprising that VA Tech was able to run away from them the way that they did.  North Carolina’s loss was a bit more shocking at Georgia Tech.  The same Georgia Tech team who had to sweat out North Carolina A&T earlier in the week.  Yes, NC A&T played a better game against Georgia Tech than the Tarheels did.

Now, while this wasn’t what everyone was expecting, it wasn’t COMPLETELY out of left field.  The number of true road games Duke had played before going to Virginia Tech was at a grand total of zero.  So, it’s not shocking that they’d lose on the road to a good team in a hostile environment.  North Carolina had played on the road, but their only true road wins are Tulane and Hawaii.  They had lost their game at Indiana.  Teams that play a limited number (or in Duke’s case, zero) of true OOC road games in hostile environments tend to struggle in road games once conference play begins.  So, while it’s surprising, it’s not alarming, and it probably isn’t an indicator of where these teams will end up once they get used to playing away from home.

-Villanova IS used to playing on the road, and they picked up another very impressive win at Creighton.  Nova now has two true road wins against protected seeded caliber teams.  Yeah, that’s a #1 seed caliber profile in case you’re wondering.

-Louisville rebounded from their loss against Virginia.  Indiana did not rebound from their loss against Nebraska.  The two met in Indianapolis yesterday with Louisville keeping Indiana at arms length for most of the game.

-Virginia, after looking so good against Louisville, lost at home to Florida State in a game that surprised me just as much as the Duke and UNC losses.  It’s a terrific win for the Seminoles and solidifies them not just as a tournament team, but as a potential protected seed if they can keep that up.

-Notre Dame picked up what I feel is their biggest win of the year so far with a road win at Pitt.

-UCF’s game against Temple was over before it even started.  They blasted the Owls.  Temple, who we deemed schizophrenic but still good enough to play their way into the discussion, is now 0-2 in conference play.

-I think we can stop talking about Wyoming now.  The team that I felt was the best in the Mountain West and one of just two that could play their way inside the bubble lost at UNLV yesterday.  As for Nevada, who was the other team we liked, they lost as well.  To Fresno State.  The Mountain West is now looking like the #12 line is their ceiling, if it’s even that high.

-And everyone’s favorite Little Engine that Could, the Monmouth Hawks!!  They LOST at home in overtime to Rider.  We can all slap our foreheads now.  I know many feel that it isn’t fair that a team like Monmouth doesn’t get the same opportunities that a power conference team does at notable wins, and they’re right.  But last year it wasn’t the lack of notable wins that ultimately sunk Monmouth.  It was losing to teams that essentially amount to losing a buy game.  If Rider were to play at Notre Dame, we’d list it as a buy game and that would be our only mention of it.  A true tournament team wins that game each and every time.  We only mention it if they do not.  So, when Monmouth loses a game like that it hurts their profile.  They need to run the table until the conference tournament if they want to be able to get an at-large bid.  Period.  And, if they truly are a tournament caliber team, they should be able to run the table and beat a bunch of teams that are nowhere near making the field.

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-NEBRASKA AT MARYLAND (Big Ten).  Nebraska won their conference opener at Indiana, and look to remain in first place if they can take out Maryland today!  In all seriousness, Maryland is one of those teams that has a bloated record, but that we still have questions about.  This is a winnable conference home game for them today.

-SYRACUSE AT BOSTON COLLEGE (ACC).  If Syracuse is going to play their way back into the discussion then they cannot afford to lose to BC today.

-BRADLEY AT WICHITA STATE (Missouri Valley).  Wichita State should be fine so long as they hold serve, which means beating all the sub-NIT teams in the league, which means winning games like the on they’re playing today.

-MICHIGAN AT IOWA (Big Ten).  Michigan’s profile still appears to be solid, but they don’t have a true road win yet, so although Iowa isn’t anything special a win today would add something to their profile that they need.

-PENN STATE AT RUTGERS (Big Ten).  Rutgers is much improved, but still has a ways to go before we can call them a tournament caliber team.  Still, they should be able to win at home today and keep themselves in the discussion.

-PROVIDENCE AT BUTLER (Big East).  Hopefully Butler has gotten over what was a genuine scare as their plane lost cabin pressure on their way home from Saint John’s.  They face a good but not great Providence team at home today in a game they should win.

-MINNESOTA AT PURDUE (Big Ten).  Minnesota’s record is still bloated, but I’m still selling them rather than buying them.  Now, if they pick up a win at Purdue today, my entire opinion of them will change.

-MARQUETTE AT SETON HALL (Big East).  Seton Hall isn’t as good as the top of the Big East, but they seem a lot better to me than what they’ve gotten credit for.  Marquette has had a decent season as well, but they need a big road win like this in order to get their profile to the point to where it will jump out at the committee.

-UAB AT MIDDLE TENNESSEE (Conference USA).  We still like this Middle Tennessee team despite a somewhat surprising loss in their last game.  They are good enough to run the table in CUSA, and if they do they should be safe for a bid regardless of what happens in the conference tournament.

-COLORADO AT UTAH (Pac Twelve).  Both teams have work to do, and both need to be able to win games like this.

-OHIO STATE AT ILLINOIS (BIG TEN).  I’ve liked most of what I’ve seen out of Ohio State this year, but certainly not all of it.  Still, with Illinois being 7-1 at home this year this would be a nice conference road win that their resume seems to need at the moment.

-TULANE AT CINCINNATI (American).  It’s not a buy game, but it should end up looking like one.

-ARIZONA AT STANFORD (Pac Twelve).  Arizona had an exciting come from behind win against Cal in their last game, and they should be favored against a Stanford team that’s coming off a home loss to Arizona State.

-ARIZONA STATE AT CALIFORNIA (Pac Twelve).  Cal’s team should be good enough to land in the NCAA, but right now Cal’s profile is far from it.  They cannot afford a home loss to what appears to be a sub-NIT team.