The Hoops HD Report: December 21st

Posted on December 21, 2015 by David Griggs

Chad and the Panel begin by discussing the sudden retirement of Bo Ryan.  They look back on his career, as well as talk about how it effects Wisconsin moving forward.

They then look back on what was a very busy weekend in college basketball.  They discuss some of the bigger upsets, such as Ohio State taking down Kentucky and whether or not Kentucky was overvalued.  They also look at Northern Iowa’s big win against Iowa State, which is their second of the year.  They focus on Oklahoma’s dominance so far this year, and how they and Michigan State have looked like the two best teams.

Xavier and South Carolina are both unbeaten, and the panel discusses how good they feel both those teams have looked.

Alabama, Oregon, Kansas State, Pittsburgh, Miami FL, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M are other teams that are all off to good starts, and the panel looks at each one and discusses whether they feel they’re legitimate contenders or frauds.

All that, a look ahead to this week’s upcoming games, particularly Louisville vs Kentucky this Saturday, and a lot more…

 

And for all you radio lovers, below is an mp3 version of the show…

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Bracket Projections: December 21st

Posted on December 21, 2015 by David Griggs

Below are the most recent Hoops HD Bracket Projections, as well as comments and critique from some of the staff…

OTHER IMPORTANT LINKS

For Joby’s latest Nitty Gritty Rankings – CLICK HERE

For a Rundown of all of today’s action – CLICK HERE

For Chad Sherwood’s Under the Radar Game of the Day – CLICK HERE

 

Bracket Posted by John Stalica on Monday, December 21st at 9:30am, est

This represents the pre-Christmas checkpoint (not the one that David Griggs tries to avoid at NCAA headquarters) of all the NCAA teams in the bracket.

One of the big movers over the past 2 weeks is Xavier. We expected both Michigan and Cincinnati to be signature wins, but Alabama, USC and Dayton have also proven to be significant wins as well. They are about to embark on a tough 3-game stretch that includes games at Wake Forest, at Villanova and at home against Butler. They have earned a #1 seed for now, but their region would rival that of Wichita State’s Group of Death from 2 seasons earlier.

It seems a little odd to see Kentucky and Duke as low as they are, but Duke’s only wins against teams currently projected in the field are Indiana (which barely made the cut this week) and Yale. And at the rate the Ivy League is playing right now, they could conceivably be playing in a First Four matchup this seaon. Kentucky is a little better with wins over Duke and Arizona State (and I suppose Albany counts), but they picked the wrong season to lose to Ohio State.

I also believe that Monmouth, Arkansas-Little Rock and Texas-Arlington are at-large caliber teams based on their current merits. I would also not recommend losing to teams like Canisius going forward.

I do think that UNLV is at-large worthy for now, if only because they have played a brutal schedule and even managed a few noteworthy wins over Oregon and Indiana. Unfortunately, the Mountain West is not going to offer many opportunities for signature wins this season.

A plethora of teams normally from one-bid leagues have at-large credentials at the moment, which is also forcing play-in games down to the 13-seed line. It is very unlikely that the Selection Committee would send a team to either Spokane or Denver, but that was my only option this week. Even bumping a couple of teams down to the 14-line does not work since it causes bracketing principles to be broken in 1st-round matchups involving conference foes.

EDIT (Bracket updated at 2:15 PM, est) – The real chairman of the committee, Chad Sherwood, has informed me that Duke and Virginia cannot be in the same region (nor, for that matter, can Purdue and Maryland), so Duke and Purdue will be trading places.

 

Screen Shot 2015-12-21 at 2.59.10 PM

Screen Shot 2015-12-21 at 2.59.00 PM

 

COMMENTS FROM DAVID

-Xavier may seem overseeded at #1, but at this point in time I can’t say I disagree with it.  They have five notable wins, and four came away from home.  I don’t know if they’re good enough to end up on the top line come March, but if they can continue winning away from home they’ll have a strong case.

-It appears as though Chattanooga, Little Rock, Valpo, and Monmouth are all inside his bubble, but barely.  I would actually make a case that they belong several lines higher than that.  Monmouth has played just one home game, and posted an 8-3 record with wins against USC, Notre Dame, UCLA, and Georgetown all away from home.  They do have one loss to Canisius that has us holding our noses, but I think they’ve done more than enough to offset that.

-Louisville is interesting.  They’ve looked good enough to be a protected seed, but if you look at their paper all they’ve done is blow out weak teams in buy games and almost beat Michigan State.  If you’re using the eye test, you could have them on the #4 line or higher.  If you’re just going off the paper, you could almost make a case that they don’t belong at all.  John has them on the #7 line.  Perhaps he compromised.

 

COMMENTS FROM CHAD

– I don’t have too much more to add than what David said other than a few comments on the lower lines.  I do not understand Hofstra on the 12 line, inside the bubble.  They have four losses, including to Indiana State and Siena, with only the Florida State win being of note.

– I also wonder why Texas Tech is not in this field — they have not beaten anyone, but only have one loss.  That merits consideration at least.  On the same token, where are Pitt, Seton Hall and Florida?  I will take what they have done so far over the likes or Oregon State, Marquette, Florida State and Indiana.

– Finally, I guess the elephant in the room is that Wichita State is not in the field.  They have looked like an NCAA team, and I am not sure you can punish them too much for the 8th place finish at the Advocare Invitational given that VanVleet was out.  I would probably have sent them to the First Four, more based on eye test since his return (despite the Seton Hall loss) than based on their paper.

– EDIT (2:30 PM): Regarding the 2:15 PM Edit – John claims it was just  mistake, but we all know that in reality he thought Maryland was an ACC team.  We forgive him as, after all, David still thinks Colorado is in the Big 8 and Texas A&M is in the Southwest Conference.

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Joby’s Nitty Gritty Rankings: Dec 21st

Posted on December 21, 2015 by David Griggs

Last updated on Monday, December 21st at 9:30am, est

Joby’s Nitty Gritty Rankings Explained

Joby’s Nitty Gritty rankings were created as an attempt to quantify the characteristics the selection committee has always stated and shown to be important as key factors in their analysis.  I actually draw from what is known as the “nitty gritty sheet” that the Committee uses in taking the inputs for the statistics that make up these ratings.  Thus, why it is known as my Nitty Gritty Ratings.

The baseline for strength is on the RPI.  The Committee, rightfully or wrongfully, has repeatedly used the RPI as the baseline to determine what a “good win” (typically top 50) or a “bad loss” (typically anything above 100) is.  Other factors such as high level wins away from home, conference leaders, overall records, SOS, and “playing hot” are all components that comprise my ratings.

The ratings in their first year showed some strength.  When nobody thought UCLA should even get close to a bid, the ratings revealed that they actually were in the thick of the discussion (further proof the ratings are meant to mimic the Committee, NOT evaluate merit in a manner that I feel should be adopted).  I know of few other “formulas” that have the ability to accomplish this task.

Latest Rankings and Notes

Everyone is asleep so was able to compile rings through Saturday (waiting on Jerry’s nitty gritty sheets to pop on CBS of yesterdays games as that makes it a LOT easier to do than realtimerpi)  Only Pitt will be affected dramatically by my quick look at the Sunday results as they will move all the way up to around 12th from 24th.
Feel free if nobody wants to bracket to pick apart the seedings set from these.  Once again zero eye test.  It is just how I think the committee would mathematically look at these teams if there was a blind resume test.  To answer the first question, Dayton is the last 1 seed because they have 3 top 50 wins 5 top 100 wins.  Not many teams can match that and of those 5, 2 of those were neutral and one on the road.  Their losses are both to top 25 teams including the overall #1 seed.
Top 4 seed lines:
1: Xavier, Michigan St, Oklahoma & Dayton
2: UNC, Iowa St, Purdue & Miami
3: Virginia, Butler, Angry Frank, & George Washington
4: USC-West, Texas Tech, Utah & Arizona
(ok this line will need some explanation – yes Texas Tech’s resume is fraudulent but until Sam Houston, South Dakota St & Hawaii drop they are all quality wins and their only loss is to fellow 4 seed Utah; The Trojans have a nice top 25 split with Monmouth and some decent away from home performances with the only loss to the overall #1 seed – you can now see how Xavier earned that overall #1 by transitive property)
Last 4 in
Iowa, Curtain of Distraction!!!, Michigan & Marquette
(Marquette better get their RPI up as at some point soon, the formula will begin to automatically eliminate them from consideration if they are still 150)
First 4 out
Wake, Florida St, Vandy & Baylor
(one could make an argument for all 4 out to be better than all four in)
Other notable “ins” that are outliers for people: Alabama, Kansas St, Cal, UT-Arlington, Oregon St (wow the Pac-12 is getting a lot of love from the nitty gritty sheet early on – I predict this will really help them come selection time – UCLA part deux), S. Joe’s, St Mary’s & a NORTHWESTERN!!!!!!! (who is basically undefeated in the eyes of the computer.)  I would also add the entire first 4 to this list of debatables.
People left out but in on many other people’s fields: both Indiana & Notre Dame, Georgia, Gonzaga and Northern Iowa.  I have to be honest.  Don’t know really why UNI is not getting more love.  They have two great wins as a % of their resume, which the sheet usually loves.  The loss to Colorado St at home is just KILLING them. (they would be safely in the field had that game never happened but it drops them 25 spots on the s-curve).  Most of the time going into conference play for non-major conferences will hurt teams (e.g. UT-Arlington will almost surely face this) but as Northern Iowa piles up wins in the MVC, they should be helped. (same with conference brethren Wichita St who is ineligible at present given their .500 record)
RANK
1 Xavier 2
2 Michigan St 1.958333333
3 Oklahoma 1.90625
4 Dayton 1.725
5 UNC 1.545454545
6 Iowa St 1.525
7 Purdue 1.520833333
8 Miami (fl) 1.45
9 Virginia 1.375
10 Butler 1.275
11 S. Carolina 1.225
12 GW 1.181818182
13 Southern Cal 1.136363636
14 Texas Tech 1.111111111
15 Utah 1.068181818
16 Arizona 1.041666667
17 Texas A&M 1.022727273
18 UALR 1
18 Kansas 1
20 Villanova 0.95
21 Providence 0.916666667
22 Texas 0.909090909
23 Monmouth 0.9
24 Pitt 0.888888889
25 Chattanooga 0.886363636
26 Colorado 0.863636364
27 Alabama 0.861111111
28 Oregon 0.840909091
29 Cincinnati 0.833333333
30 West Virginia 0.8
30 Kansas St 0.8
32 Valpo 0.791666667
33 Seton Hall 0.727272727
34 Louisville 0.725
35 Kentucky 0.704545455
35 Maryland 0.704545455
37 California 0.681818182
38 UTA 0.675
38 Oregon St 0.675
40 Duke 0.659090909
41 UCLA 0.604166667
42 Florida 0.575
42 St. Joe’s 0.575
44 Nwestern 0.568181818
45 St. Mary’s 0.527777778
46 Iowa 0.522727273
47 Arizona St 0.5
48 Michigan 0.479166667
49 Marquette 0.475
50 Wake Forest 0.45
51 Florida St 0.4
52 Vanderbilt 0.35
52 Baylor 0.35
54 Ole Miss 0.340909091
55 Indiana 0.333333333
56 Fordham 0.325
57 S. Dakota St 0.3125
58 New Mexico 0.3
59 Evansville 0.295454545
60 S. Illinois 0.25
61 Notre Dame 0.225
62 Georgia 0.21875
63 Duquesne 0.208333333
64 La Tech 0.204545455
65 Davidson 0.1875
66 Mercer 0.181818182
67 N. Iowa 0.175
68 Hawaii 0.15625
69 Army 0.15
70 Houston 0.138888889
71 Auburn 0.125
72 Gonzaga 0.113636364
73 Tulsa 0.090909091
73 NC State 0.090909091
75 St. Bonnie 0.083333333
76 Memphis 0.025
77 Syracuse 0.022727273
78 Georgia Tech 0
79 JMU -0.022727273
80 Washington -0.025
81 Richmond -0.05
82 Penn St -0.068181818
83 BYU -0.075
84 MTSU -0.083333333
85 Coll of Charlstn -0.1
86 Kent St -0.111111111
87 Oakland -0.15
88 IPFW -0.192307692
89 UConn -0.222222222
90 UNLV -0.270833333
91 UAB -0.272727273
92 Fresno St -0.295454545
93 Rhode Island -0.409090909
93 Creighton -0.409090909
95 Illinois -0.416666667
96 Northeastern -0.431818182
97 Georgia St -0.46875
98 Hofstra -0.472222222
99 UC-Irvine -0.520833333
100 Tx A&M-CC -0.55
Posted in News and Notes | 1 Comment

Under the Radar Game of the Day – Monday, December 21: High Point at William & Mary

Posted on December 21, 2015 by Chad

Under the Radar Game of the Day: High Point at William & Mary, 7:00 PM Eastern, caa.tv

For the rest of today’s Highlighted Games and more, CLICK HERE.

The College of William & Mary (named after England’s King William III and Queen Mary II) is, after Harvard, the second oldest college in the United States, having been founded in 1693.  Its alumni includes some of our most historic figures, including Presidents Thomas Jefferson, James Monroe and John Tyler.  The school has been playing men’s basketball since the 1905-06 season, and has been a member of the NCAA since the beginning.  Nine times in school history, the Tribe have been one win away from a berth in the NCAA Tournament.  A heartbreaking one point loss in the 2014 CAA Championship game was the most recent, and dropped the school record in such games to 0-9.  Along with Army, Northwestern, The Citadel and St. Francis-Brooklyn, William & Mary is on the very short list of teams that have been members of the NCAA since the inception of divisional play in 1948 without ever making it to the Big Dance.  Once again this season, the Tribe will be trying to get that elusive first-ever berth.

William & Mary enters play tonight with a record of 6-3, and the CAA’s top KenPom rating at 72.  The Tribe have won at North Carolina State and at home against Old Dominion already this season.  Two of their three loses are certainly understandable (at Dayton and at Virginia), but the third was a real head-scratcher (at Howard) that may come back to haunt the team if it cannot capture an automatic bid this year.  The Tribe do have two more chances to pick up solid home wins before the start of conference play, as they will be hosting a pair of team expected to contend for their conference championships — Central Michigan next week and High Point tonight.

High Point, led by one of the nation’s most exciting players in John Brown, enters the game tonight with a record of 8-3.  A win tonight would be the Panthers’ most note-worthy on the season so far, though their losses have been respectable (at Georgia, at Texas Tech and at NC State).  The NC State loss, last time out, may still be stinging for the team, as the Panthers had the ball on a sidelines in-bounds play with 19 seconds left and committed a costly turnover.  They then had another chance when the Wolfpack missed two free throws, but gave up an offensive rebound and watched Cat Barber sink a buzzer-beating 3-pointer to send HPU home with the loss.  High Point must put that game behind them and come out strong again tonight if they want to capture the victory in what will be their last regular season non-conference game against a D1 opponent.

 

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News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Monday, Dec 21

Posted on December 21, 2015 by David Griggs

A Look at all of today’s college basketball action…

 

NEWS AND NOTES

-We will be recording our Hoops HD Report later tonight, so be on the lookout for it.

-We will also be posting our latest Bracket Projections, as well as Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day very shortly

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-AKRON VS UC SANTA BARABARA (Las Vegas, NV).  Akron has a long way to go before they’re anywhere near the bubble, but a win does get them to 8-2.

-PROVIDENCE AT UMASS.  UMass has been better than expected so far this year.  But, they’re still terrible.  Providence has just one true road win, so even tough UMass isn’t that good at least this game allows them to add to that total.

-HIGH POINT AT WILLIAM & MARY.  CLICK HERE for Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day 

-GRAND CANYON VS HOUSTON (Las Vegas, NV).  Houston has just one loss, but their eight wins haven’t exactly been noteworthy.  In fact, Grand Canyon would probably be their most notable win to date if they pull it off.  Pulling it off won’t be easy though!  The Team of the People are on a roll!!  They’re coming off a big win at San Diego State and should play well in this tournament.

-SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AT SAINT LOUIS.  Many probably think Southern Illinois is somewhat of a fraud, and I can’t say they’re wrong, but a win today gets them to 11-2, as well as gives them their fourth true road win.

-OREGON VS ALABAMA (Birmingham, AL0.  Alabama has blasted by Dayton and Xavier earlier in the year, but outside of that they’ve looked much better than expected, and that’s despite losing a key player for the season due to injury.  Oregon has looked great at home, but not so much away from home.  They need some notable wins like this away from home in order to round out their profile.

-PEPPERDINE AT GONZAGA (West Coast).  Gonzaga has been decent enough to land inside the bubble if they blow through their conference, but not so good that they look like a top ten team.  They can’t afford too many slip ups because anything less than first place could land them in some trouble.

-SAN FRANCISCO AT SAINT MARY’S (West Coast).  Saint Mary’s has just one loss, but has no wins of note at all.  They’ll need to finish at or near the top to even be considered by the committee, but they may actually be good enough to do it so we’ll keep our eyes on them.

 

 

BUY GAMES

-Charleston Southern @ Florida State
-Eastern Kentucky @ West Virginia
-Sacred Heart @ Northwestern
-Appalachian State @ North Carolina
-Youngstown State @ Notre Dame
-Chicago State @ Marquette
-Quinnipiac @ Oregon State

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Under the Radar Game of the Day – Sunday, December 20: Northern Arizona at Arkansas-Little Rock (and News, Notes, and Highlighted Games)

Posted on December 20, 2015 by Chad

Under the Radar Game of the Day: Northern Arizona at Arkansas-Little Rock, 2:00 PM Eastern

And then there were 6.  After yesterday’s results, we now have six undefeated teams left in the nation.  Michigan State.  Oklahoma.  SMU. Xavier.  South Carolina.  And Arkansas-Little Rock.  The UALR Trojans are the only undefeated team that has not yet cracked the Top 25 rankings (though we believe they will soon if they keep winning).  Despite not being a team that we were looking at seriously heading into the season (Yours Truly picked them to finished 7th in the Sun Belt), the Trojans have exceeded expectations and looked extremely good all season long.  They have won at San Diego State and at Tulsa already, and went to DePaul last week, picking up a 22 point victory over a Big East team.  The Trojans have been led so far by Josh Hagins (19 points at 8 assists against DePaul) and a deep bench (their top three scorers in the win over Idaho all came off the bench).  Enough cannot be said for the job that has been done by ex-Bob Knight assistant Chris Beard so far this year.  He is 9-0 for his career as a D1 coach, and one cannot argue with perfection.

This afternoon, Little Rock goes for 10-0 as they host the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks out of the Big Sky Conference.  Despite making a run to the CIT Championship game last season, NAU has been off to a very rough start so far this year, sitting at 2-7, with both wins having coming against non-D1 competition.  And they have not been playing the toughest of teams either, as their resume includes home losses to Norfolk State and Hampton.  The brights spots so far have been the play of Kris Yanku (double figure scoring in all but one game) and Torry Johnson (if we throw out his game against Arizona where he was held scoreless).  It appears that the Lumberjacks may be in over their head’s today in Little Rock — but the games are played on the court and not on paper, so you should never count any team out until the final buzzer sounds.

 

OTHER HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-PITTSBURGH VS DAVIDSON (New York, NY).  Both these teams have good records, but don’t really have any good wins.  Both have potential, but need to start putting some meat on their profile, and winning today would be a good start.

-MONMOUTH AT RUTGERS.  If we’re going to talk about Monmouth as if they are an at-large candidate, then the only way to sum up this game is to say that they need to avoid a bad loss at Rutgers.

-EVANSVILLE AT FRESNO STATE.  Evansville has been good this season, but they need some notable wins.  Fresno isn’t a great team, but they are 7-0 at home and if Evansville can go there and win they will get some credit for it.

-Bradly @ Boise State.  Buy game
-UMass Lowell @ UConn.  Buy game

 

NEWS AND NOTES (David Griggs)

-In case you were out Christmas shopping, or had just given up on basketball in general until March, yesterday was a VERY exciting day.  We had a lot of notable upsets with Ohio State taking down Kentucky, Utah beating Duke in overtime, Northern Iowa holding on to beat Iowa State, Seton Hall taking down an improved Wichita State team in overtime, Gonzaga and Oregon State winning close games, as well as some other results.  There is another reason yesterday was great.  For the first time, I think we’re starting to see how the new rules emphasis on officiating, particularly on cleaning up the physical play, has improved the game.  Yesterday’s games were not only close, they were so much fun to watch.  Utah made one big defensive play after another against Duke, and they did it without playing like it was a rugby scrum.  The skill and finesse have come back!  So, for everyone that was complaining about all the fouls and all the whistles, this is why!!  This is what we want the game to look like!  Yesterday was just a fantastic day with so many well played games, and it should hopefully be this way from here on out!  That’s all I really wanted for Christmas!

Now that college basketball is starting to get good again TURN ON YOUR TELEVISIONS!!  BUY TICKETS!!  It’s not just Madness in March.  It’s Madness ALL SEASON LONG!!!

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