CONFERENCE PREVIEW: COLONIAL

Posted on October 28, 2014 by Chad

Last season, the CAA was all about Delaware.  The Fighting Blue Hens went 14-2 during the conference regular season and followed it up with the conference tournament title, before falling by 15 points to Michigan State in the Round of 64.  Delaware’s accomplishments practically overshadowed the continued progress of Pat Skerry’s amazing rebuild at Towson, where he led the Tigers to 25 wins and the conference’s only other postseason berth, a spot in the CIT.  This season should see some major shifts in power at the top, as both Delaware and Towson will need to retool following offseason losses.

The CAA welcomes one new member this season as Elon moves over from the Southern Conference.  The Phoenix probably chose the wrong year for their move, as four of five starters left the program and they will struggle to avoid the CAA basement.  Our preseason pick to actually finish at the top of the conference this year is a program that went just 11-21 last season, the Northeastern Huskies.  The Huskies return their top eight players, and were a lot better than their record indicated last year with nine of 21 losses coming by five points or less.  The Huskies top challenger this year figures to be William & Mary, with potential conference player of the year William Thornton leading the Tribe.  Hofstra and James Madison could also figure in the mix of what appears to be a wide open conference race.

Predicted Order of Finish:
1.  Northeastern: Scott Eatherton, David Walker and Reggie Spencer lead the way for this deep, veteran team.
2.  William & Mary: Omar Prewitt and Terry Tarpey should be big contributors along with Thornton.
3.  Hofstra: Juan’ya Green and Ameen Tanksley both averaged double digit scoring at Niagara two years ago and should help the Pride rise in the standings.
4.  James Madison: Andre Nation and Ron Curry return to lead a solid backcourt, but the Dukes need answers up front.
5.  Drexel: Damion Lee is back after losing last season to an injury, but they may have too many holes to fill after the loss of their top two scorers.
6.  Towson: Four McGlynn is Pat Skerry’s top returnee, but he continues to recruit well.  Keep an eye on Eddie Keith.
7.  Delaware: Kyle Anderson is the only starter back after the surprise transfer of Jarvis Threatt.  This looks like a rebuilding year.
8.  UNC-Wlmington: Cedrick Williams leads three returning senior starters, but not much else here for ex-Pitino assistant Kevin Keatts in his first year.
9.  College of Charleston: The offseason turmoil that led to Doug Wojick’s dismissal as head coach could mean a long first season for Earl Grant.
10.  Elon: Losing their top four players from last season will make this a long first trip through the CAA for the Phoenix.

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CONFERENCE PREVIEW: BIG WEST

Posted on October 27, 2014 by Chad

If things played out the way they are supposed to in conference tournaments, this is where we would be discussing how last season was a battle between UC-Irvine and UC-Santa Barbara all year long until they met in the Big West championship game for the right to play in the NCAA tournament.  But of course, it would not be called March Madness if things went the way they were supposed to on paper, and we probably wouldn’t love watching this sport as much as we do either.  Instead of UCI and UCSB battling for the bid, Cal Poly, 10-19 on the season heading into the conference tournament, knocked off both teams on its way to the NCAA tournament, then added a First Four win over Texas Southern before finally falling to Wichita State.

The regular season is starting, and we can expect much the same as last year in the Big West this season.  UC-Irvine, who did capture last year’s regular season title and played in the NIT, and UC-Santa Barbara, who chose not to play in any postseason tournament last season, should be battling it out again this year.  Cal Poly is expected to be right back down near the bottom of the conference, battling to finish in the top 8 (out of 9 teams) in order to qualify for the Big West tournament . . . and a chance to pull off another magical Cinderella run.

Predicted Order of Finish:
1.  UC-Santa Barbara: Bob Williams just keeps putting solid teams out there.  Alan Williams averaged a double-double last year and is the best player in the league.  Three additional returning starters could not only place this team in the NCAAs, but make them a very dangerous out.
2.  UC-Irvine: Luke Nelson was Freshman of the Year in the Big West last season.  And you can never count out a team with 7-6, 290 pound Mamadou Ndiaye in the middle.
3.  UC-Davis: Corey Hawkins led the team last season, which now sees the returns from injury of Josh Ritchart and J.T. Adenrele.  The depth and experience here could make them a surprise contender.
4.  Cal State-Northridge: Stephen Hicks, Stephen Maxwell and Seton Hall transfer Kevin Johnson give the Matadors one of the conference’s top frontcourts, but they have holes in the backcourt to fill.
5.  Long Beach State: Almost the opposite problem of Northridge, as Michael Caffey, Tyler Lamb and A.J. Spencer lead a deep backcourt, but the loss of Dan Jennings has left big holes down low.
6.  Cal State-Fullerton: Team needs its newcomers and transfers to step up and help senior guard Alex Harris if they want any chance to improve from last season’s 20 losses.
7.  Cal Poly: Despite the postseason run, this was still a 20 loss team last season . . . and three of the starters from that team are gone now.
8.  UC-Riverside: Taylor Johns is a double-double threat down low, and the Highlanders return four starters, but it will still be a challenge to just qualify for the Big West tournament.
9.  Hawai’i: The loss of three starters will be difficult to make up for, though returnees Isaac Fotu and Garret Nevels will help keep them in games.  UPDATE: To make matters worse, head coach Gib Arnold was relieved of duties on October 28 as the program faces an NCAA investigation.  UPDATE #2: As part of the investigation Fotu is now ineligible as well.  With this turmoil, we have dropped our prediction for the Rainbow Warriors down to a last place finish.

 

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CONFERENCE PREVIEW: BIG SOUTH

Posted on October 27, 2014 by Chad

In terms of competitive balance, the Big South, at least on paper, could be one of the most exciting conferences to watch this season.  With VMI (who made a run all the way to the CIT semifinals last year) off to join the Southern Conference this season, the Big South will drop its divisional format as it now has 11 members.  Returning this season, and among the league favorites, are defending regular season champion High Point (NIT last season) and defending conference tournament champion Coastal Carolina (Round of 64 loss to Virginia last season).  The preseason pick to win the league, however, is the lone additional returning postseason participant, Radford.  The Highlanders played in the CBI last year, and even picked up a road win there over Oregon State.

Radford returns virtually everyone off of a team that won 22 games last season.  They are led by Javonte Green who figures to again be among the leading scorers in the Big South.  Coastal Carolina also brings most of its NCAA tournament team back, and again gets the added benefit of being the predetermined host of the conference tournament.  High Point is led by John Brown, a player capable of starring at almost any program in the country.  Every other significant contributor is back as well this season for the Panthers.  UNC-Asheville, Winthrop and Gardner-Webb also return deep teams with proven leaders.  While an at-large bid would be a complete shock in this conference, these teams could be very dangerous both in the non-conference part of the season as well as in postseason play this year.

Predicted Order of Finish:
1.  Radford: With everyone returning, and pieces such as R.J. Price and Ya Ya Anderson to complement Green, this could be a very strong season for the Highlanders
2.  Coastal Carolina: Elijah Wilson, Warren Gillis and Josh Cameron are all returning double digit scorers.  Badou Diagne could step up and become a big time contributor as well
3.  High Point:  Five returning starters, including Devante Wallace and Adam Weary in addition to Brown, should have the Panthers right in contention for another league title
4.  UNC-Asheville: Andrew Rooney averaged over 20 points per game, and Will Weeks returns from a knee injury down low.  The combination of these two alone could make this a surprise team
5.  Winthrop: The Eagles will be fun to watch with four returning starters on a team that loves to play a fast tempo, high scoring style
6.  Gardner-Webb: Jerome Hill and Tyler Strange should both post good numbers, but the Runnin’ Bulldogs will need to find other players to help them
7.  Presbyterian: Another team with all five starters back including Jordan Downing who averaged over 20 points per game, but the Blue Hose need to play much better defense to improve after a 26 loss season
8.  Campbell: A few good pieces with the likes of Reco McCarter and D.J. Mason, but does not appear strong enough to contend with the top teams
9.  Charleston Southern: A solid backcourt with Arlon Harper and Saah Nimley, but team does not appear to have much up front at all
10.  Liberty: Three best players are gone from a 21 loss team, could be another long season
11.  Longwood: A mass exodus by way of transfer crushed the Lancers in the offseason, and they will now be lucky to avoid the conference basement

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CONFERENCE PREVIEW: BIG SKY

Posted on October 26, 2014 by Chad

The Big Sky Conference welcomes back Idaho this season, expanding to 12 members.  It also says goodbye — to Montana head coach Wayne Tinkle who took the job at Oregon State.  The Grizzlies also lost two of their top three scorers from last season’s team and look to be taking a step back in the conference standings after battling Weber State for the top spot in the conference the last few seasons.  Weber State, who won the conference regular season and tournament titles last season before losing to Arizona in the Round of 64, looks to be among the favorites this season again.  The Big Sky’s three other postseason participants from last season, North Dakota, Northern Colorado and Portland State (all in the CIT) may slide back this season as well while a few other schools look to take a step up in the standings.

Our preseason pick to win the Big Sky is the Eastern Washington Eagles.  The Eagles are led by one of the conference’s best players in Tyler Harvey, who averaged over 21 points per game last season.  They also have a ton of pieces around him, including three other returning double digit scorers and a deep bench.  In addition to being challenged by defending champion Weber State, Northern Arizona and Sacramento State may both also contend for the conference’s top spot.

While Idaho does not appear to be a team that will factor into the conference’s title race, the expansion of the Big Sky to 12 teams has led to a change in the conference tournament.  The Big Sky has expanded its conference tournament field, starting this year, from 7 teams to 8.  The regular season champion will continue to host the tournament, though the conference will no longer re-seed in the semifinal round.  In other words, the only advantage left to the regular season champion is the ability to host the tournament games (still a huge advantage).  They will, however, no longer get a bye into the semifinals and get the right to face the lowest seeded quarterfinal winner.

Predicted Order of Finish:
1.  Eastern Washington: Harvey is going to score a ton, but will be helped by Venky Jois, Parker Kelly, Drew Brandon, Ognjen Milijokiv and more.
2.  Weber State: Joel Bolomboy is a big time talent, and may be the best frontcourt player in the conference.  There are enough other pieces here to have a chance at a repeat.
3.  Northern Arizona: Quinton Upshur and Kris Yanku lead a deep team.  Keep an eye on 7-1 Geoffrey Frid down low too.
4.  Sacramento State: Everyone returns from a team that was fun and exciting to watch last season.  This could be one of the Hornets’ best seasons ever.
5.  Portland State: Iziahiah Sweeney is a freshmen with huge potential.  If he is ready to play, when added to the likes of Gary Winston and DaShaun Wiggins, this team could be dangerous.
6.  North Dakota: Their best players from last season are all gone, but the addition of transfer Estan Tyler (UMKC’s top scorer two years ago) will help the rebuild process.
7.  Montana: Jordan Gregory is the only significant returnee as the post-Wayne Tinkle era begins.
8.  Northern Colorado: Tevin Svihovec and Tim Huskisson will need to lead the way for this team to compete.
9.  Idaho State: Chris Hansen and Jeffrey Solarin will score points, but the Bengals will have to rely on a freshman point guard this year.
10.  Idaho: With Stephen Madison gone, this could be a long first season back in the Big Sky for the Vandals.
11.  Montana State: Brian Fish takes over as the new head coach, but he needs to rebuild this program from the ground up.
12.  Southern Utah: The good news is that the entire starting lineup is back.  The bad news is this starting lineup only led them to two wins last season and does not appear to be ready to win many more than that this year.

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CONFERENCE PREVIEW: ATLANTIC SUN

Posted on October 26, 2014 by Chad

Next up in our preseason conference previews is the Atlantic Sun Conference.  The ASun of course made tons of noise two years ago when Florida Gulf Coast became the first 15 seed to ever reach the Sweet 16.  Mercer followed up FGCU’s run by winning last season’s automatic bid and going on to defeat Duke in the NCAAs.  Gulf Coast also played in the postseason last season, losing to Florida State in the NIT, while South Carolina-Upstate and East Tennessee State both played in the CIT.

Two of those four postseason participants, Mercer and ETSU, moved on after last season and are now members of the Southern Conference.  Their exits, combined with USC-Upstate’s loss to graduation of Torrey Craig, leaves Florida Gulf Coast as the clear favorite to win the conference this year.  Brett Comer and Bernard Thompson return for their senior seasons and give the Eagles the best backcourt in the conference.  However, FGCU should be challenged by a solid Lipscomb team featuring twin brothers Martin and Malcolm Smith, who are two of four returning players for the Bisons that averaged over 13 points per game last season.

Predicted Order of Finish:
1.  Florida Gulf Coast: Comer and Thompson will get help from three transfers, Julian DeBoise (Rice), and Brian Greene, Jr and Nick Pellar (both from Auburn)
2.  Lipscomb: The Smith twins are joined by J.C. Hampton and Josh Williams to give the Bisons a very strong chance
3.  North Florida: Beau Beech and Dallas Moore will lead the way, but they need to cut down on the turnovers (one of the worst teams in the nation in this category last year)
4.  Northern Kentucky*: Chad Jackson returns from a redshirt season to join five returning starters
5.  Kennesaw State: With most of last season’s roster back, this team could surprise
6.  Jacksonville: Jarvis Haywood should score a ton of points this season, but the team will need newcomers to step up as not much else is back
7.  USC-Upstate: Not having Torrey Craig will make this a tough season, though Ty Greene and Mario Blessing are seniors with experience in the backcourt
8.  Stetson: Brian Pegg will have to star for this team to have any chance to avoid the conference basement

*Northern Kentucky is ineligible for the NCAA tournament as a third year transitional team.  They will participate in the ASun tournament.  In the event NKU wins the tournament, the team they defeat in the finals will receive the conference’s automatic bid.

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Conference Preview: America East

Posted on October 25, 2014 by Chad

We begin this year’s conference previews in the America East conference (because it is the first one alphabetically of course).  Vermont rolled through the conference regular season last year, losing only once in 16 games.  However, the first two rounds of the conference tournament were held on UAlbany’s home court, and the Catamounts were upset in the semifinals by the Great Danes who went on to capture the league’s automatic bid.  Albany also picked up a win in the First Four over Mount St. Mary’s before losing to the #1 seeded Florida Gators.  Vermont did go to the NIT, losing there to Georgia.  Stony Brook also secured a postseason bid, falling to Siena in the CBI.

While there are no changes in the membership to the America East this season, there has been a major change to the conference tournament.  After Vermont had to go on the road in the conference tournament last season despite running away with the regular season title, the conference has chosen to go away from the “pre-determined site” format and instead will play all conference tournament games at the home court of the higher seeded team.

Vermont may not be able to capitalize on the change in the conference tournament format as pretty much everyone from last season’s team is gone this year.  Albany will, however, be up there in the standings with Peter Hooley and Sam Rowley returning to lead the way.  Stony Brook will be strong as well, with one of the league’s top players down low in Jameel Warney.  However, the pick to win the America East this year is the Hartford Hawks.  Hartford has a roster featuring six seniors that contributed significant minutes last season.  The veteran leadership could have the Hawks dancing for the first time ever this year.

Predicted Order of Finish:
1. Hartford: Mark Nwakamma is one of the conference’s top players for a deep senior-loaded team
2. Albany: Hooley and Rowley will look to make up for three lost starters from last year’s team
3. Binghamton: A dark horse in the conference, five returning starters plus some good recruiting has the Bearcats heading in the right direction
4. Stony Brook: Jameel Warney will lead the way, but there are some holes with four starters gone
5. Vermont: This will be a rebuilding year, but a strong recruiting class should make them tough as they gain experience during the season
6. UMBC: Rodney Elliott leads an improving team, but still a ways to go here
7. Maine: This is a rebuild project for new head coach Bob Walsh
8. UMass-Lowell*: In their second year of Division 1 play, but with Akeem Williams and Kerry Weldon gone, expect a step back from last year’s surprise 8-8 conference record
9. New Hampshire: This looks like another long season in Durham, NH

*UMass-Lowell is ineligible for the NCAA and America East tournaments as a second year transitional team.

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