Field of 68 – February 17

Posted on February 18, 2013 by Chad

Here is my Field of 68, through games of February 17, broken down by conference.  Note that the winner of the conference is the team that I feel is the best team in the conference, which may at times not be the first place team.

America East (1): Stony Brook
ACC (6): Miami, North Carolina State, Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland
Atlantic Sun (1): Mercer
Atlantic Ten (4): Butler, Virginia Commonwealth, La Salle, Saint Louis
Big East (8): Syracuse, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Cincinnati, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Villanova
Big Sky (1): Montana
Big South (1): Charleston Southern
Big Ten (8): Michigan, Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois, Iowa
Big Twelve (5): Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Iowa State
Big West (1): Long Beach State
Colonial (1): Northeastern
Conference USA (1): Memphis
Horizon (1): Detroit
Ivy (1): Harvard
Metro Atlantic (1): Loyola
MAC (1): Akron
MEAC (1): Norfolk State
Missouri Valley (2): Creighton, Wichita State
Mountain West (4): New Mexico, UNLV, Colorado State, San Diego State
Northeast (1): Robert Morris
Ohio Valley (1): Belmont
Pac 12 (5): Oregon, Arizona, UCLA, Colorado, California
Patriot (1): Bucknell
SEC (3): Florida, Ole Miss, Missouri
Southern (1): Davidson
Southland (1): Northwestern State
SWAC (1): Southern
Summit (1): South Dakota State
Sun Belt (1): Middle Tennessee
West Coast (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary’s
WAC (1): Louisiana Tech

Last four in: Maryland, Iowa State, Ole Miss, St Mary’s
First four out: Boise State, Arizona State, Arkansas, Northern Iowa
Others considered: Baylor, Southern Miss, Ohio U, Indiana State, Wyoming, Alabama, Kentucky, Tennessee, Texas A&M

A few notes about this week’s field:

This week saw more than the usual number of changes for my predictions for one bid conferences.  As the season gets later and team’s schedules begin to balance out more, this is not too much of a shock.  Some of the changes this week include Stony Brook moving back on top in the America East, Mercer (who will host the A-Sun tourney) moving on top of its league, Detroit overtaking Valpo in the Horizon, and Northwestern State (a very fun team to watch play) now being my pick in the Southland despite Stephen F Austin’s gaudy record — a record built on an excessive number of games against weak competition and non-Division I foes.  Finally, while I think Norfolk State is the third best team in the MEAC (behind Savannah State and NC Central), I had to give them the nod as one of a very small group of teams left undefeated in their leagues.

As for the major conferences, the Big East and Big Ten both expanded out to 8 teams this week as Villanova and Iowa both snuck into the field.  I also slipped Maryland in from the ACC, but I am not a fan of their profile, even with the win over Duke.  If they don’t keep winning, I do not expect them to stay.

The SEC only had one team that made it inn on my initial attempt to fill the field, and I am not very happy about having to put Ole Miss in.  On the other hand, both Arkansas and even Tennessee have caught my attention.  The Razorbacks are slowly making a late season run — if it continues they may find a way into the field.

In the Missouri Valley, Indiana State had a disastrous week that almost knocked them off the board entirely (they barely clung on to make the Others Considered list).  However, Northern Iowa, much like Arkansas, is starting to get my attention for a possible bid.  As with everyone else on the bubble, what these teams do down the stretch will clear things up.

Finally, here is my S-Curve of the 68 teams:

1. Indiana
2. Miami
3. Florida
4. Gonzaga
5. Duke
6. Michigan State
7. Michigan
8. Syracuse
9. Louisville
10. Kansas
11. Arizona
12. Georgetown
13. Kansas State
14. Wisconsin
15. New Mexico
16. Oklahoma State
17. Marquette
18. Pittsburgh
19. VCU
20. Colorado State
21. Oregon
22. Saint Louis
23. Ohio State
24. Butler
25. Memphis
26. Notre Dame
27. Minnesota
28. Illinois
29. UCLA
30. San Diego State
31. Wichita State
32. La Salle
33. Virginia
34. North Carolina State
35. UNLV
36. Cincinnati
37. Belmont
38. Colorado
39. North Carolina
40. Missouri
41. Oklahoma
42. Akron
43. Creighton
44. Villanova
45. California
46. Iowa
47. Iowa State
48. St. Mary’s
49. South Dakota State
50. Middle Tennessee
51. Maryland
52. Ole Miss
53. Louisiana Tech
54. Montana
55. Detroit
56. Harvard
57. Bucknell
58. Davidson
59. Northeastern
60. Long Beach State
61. Loyola
62. Northwestern State
63. Stony Brook
64. Mercer
65. Charleston Southern
66. Robert Morris
67. Southern
68. Norfolk State

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Small Conference Game of the Day – February 16

Posted on February 16, 2013 by Chad

The SCGD has two key games on the schedule for day, and instead of picking one of them, we will focus on both.

The first game is at 5:00 PM Eastern, Fox College Sports, as Western Illinois attempts to continue its surprising run through the Summit League.  Coming off a huge win over North Dakota State on Thursday night, the Leathernecks now head to South Dakota State.  A win tonight would put them in great position for the regular season championship, which is even more amazing given that both North Dakota State and South Dakota State have been eyeing the tournament bubble all season long.

The battle atop the Summit League will be followed at 7:00 PM Eastern, NBC Sports Network, with the first of two matchups this season between the top two teams in the Ivy League.  Princeton travels to take on Harvard tonight in a game that will decide who has the leg up heading into the second half of the Ivy season.  These two teams will meet again a week before Selection Sunday, and if they can both hold serve against the rest of the conference, these two games will determine the automatic bid (or if we have a one game playoff again).

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Highlighted Games for Saturday, Feb 16th

Posted on February 16, 2013 by David Griggs

-BOISE STATE AT NEW MEXICO (Mountain West). New Mexico is in much better shape, but both teams still have a lot of room to improve their resumes, so this game has a pivotal feel to it, especially for Boise. It’s a chance to get a win that will help put them way inside the bubble. The Mountain has been very exciting this year, and we could be in for another treat tonight.

-KENT STATE AT OHIO (MAC). As weak as the bubble appears to be, Ohio may get a look if they win out, but anything short of that and I’d say they have no chance.

-VILLANOVA AT CONNECTICUT (Big East). Nova has some good things on their profile, but they need a strong finish if they want to be considered.

-VIRGINIA AT NORTH CAROLINA (ACC). Virginia’s OOC schedule did them no favors, and it has put a lot of pressure on them to perform in conference. Having said that, they do have some nice wins and could add another to their profile today. For UNC, they appear to be inside the bubble, but still have a lot of room to improve. This game has a pivotal feel for both teams.

-NOTRE DAME AT PROVIDENCE (Big East). Notre Dame followed up their thrilling overtime marathon against Louisville with an unimpressive overtime win against DePaul. They appear to be solid and this would be another nice road win for them.

-SAINT JOSEPH’S AT LA SALLE (Atlantic Ten, Big Five). This should be an emotional game for La Salle, who is at home against a crosstown rival in a year where they’re trying to make the NCAAs for the first time in a generation..

-PITTSBURGH AT MARQUETTE (Big East). These are two teams with solid profiles who could end up as protected seeds.

-KENTUCKY AT TENNESSEE (SEC). Every game for the remainder of Kentucky’s season will have a pivotal feel to it. They’re on the bubble, and now they’re without their star player for the rest of the season.

-FLORIDA AT AUBURN (SEC). If Florida wants a #1 seed, they’ll pretty much have to win out, and that may not even be enough. They’re still a solid team and appear to be undermatched today.

-OKLAHOMA AT OKLAHOMA STATE (BIG TWELVE). BEDLAM!!!! Both teams are in the tournament picture, which makes this rivalry that much more fun. Both are in good shape, but both also have room to improve their profiles.

-TCU AT IOWA STATE (Big Twelve). Iowa State is on the bubble and needs to hold serve in this game.

-PURDUE AT INDIANA (Big Ten). This is a big rivalry, but considering how big of a mismatch it is it doesn’t have all the appeal that it has had in previous years. The Hoosiers appear to be a #1 seed, and Purdue may make the NIT.

-INDIANA STATE AT BRADLEY (Missouri Valley). Indiana State lost to an awful Missouri State team earlier in the week, and they may not be able to recover. A loss in this one may knock them out of the picture entirely.

-VIRGINIA TECH AT NC STATE (ACC). NC State has done well at home. They need road wins, though. A win today against a lower caliber team won’t help nearly as much as a loss would hurt.

-BUCKNELL AT LAFAYETTE (Patriot League). Again, with the bubble being weak, Bucknell could be in the picture if they win out.

-CREIGHTON AT EVANSVILLE (Missouri Valley). Creighton has lost three straight and their profile is in a tailspin. They really need this win today. Evansville has just two home losses, so it won’t be easy for them.

-COLORADO STATE AT AIR FORCE (Mountain West, Front Range). This is a true test for Colorado State. It’s a rivalry game, it’s a conference game, and it’s a mythical conference game all rolled up into one. Colorado State has a solid profile, but if they can pick up some notable road wins their profile could end up being even stronger. Right now they’re playing as well as anyone in the league, and could end up with a protected seed if they finish strong.

-WYOMING AT FRESNO STATE (Mountain West). Wyoming really needs to turn their season around, and can’t afford any more losses to non-tournament caliber teams.

-MISSOURI AT ARKANSAS (SEC). Missouri won their first road game of the year against Mississippi State earlier in the week. A win in this game would really push them further inside the bubble. Arkansas isn’t a tournament team, but they are strong at home, and the biggest thing Mizzou is lacking is true road wins.

-BUTLER AT FORDHAM (Atlantic Ten). Butler went down to Charlotte earlier in the week, but they’re still right in the mix of the Atlantic Ten. This is as winnable as a road game as any in the conference.

-UCLA AT STANFORD (Pac Twelve). UCLA got creamed earlier in the week, but still appears to be in decent shape. They could use another good road win, though. Stanford started off weak, but has really come on strong lately. If they keep it up they’ll play their way into the discussion.

-GONZAGA AT SAN FRANCISCO (West Coast). Gonzaga won a big game at Saint Mary’s earlier in the week and isn’t likely to be beaten again. They will have a case for a #1 seed if they win out.

-SOUTHERN MISS AT EAST CAROLINA (Conference USA). I still don’t like Southern Miss because of their lack of quality wins, but they do have a good record and the committee will likely give them a look if they can win out and get a win against Memphis either during the season or in the conference tourney.

-STEPHEN F AUSTIN AT SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA (Southland). It’s the same story for SFA. If they win out they may get a look, but anything short of that and they’ll need the automatic bid.

-DUKE AT MARYLAND (ACC). Duke is solidly in, but could use some more road wins to improve their profile. Maryland is outside the bubble and needs some notable wins to be seriously considered.

-TEMPLE AT UMASS (Atlantic Ten). Temple is the most schizophrenic team being considered this year. They just had a terrible loss to Duquesne, and that may be enough to sink them if they don’t get some more wins of note between now and the end. UMass had their doors blown off at VCU, and is also on the outside looking in right now. This is a desperation game for both teams.

-TEXAS A&M AT VANDERBILT (SEC). TAMU is way outside the bubble, but a strong finish should get them some consideration.

-CHARLOTTE AT SAINT LOUIS (Atlantic Ten). Charlotte managed a huge win earlier in the week at Butler, which really helps out their chances. A win in this game would put them way inside the bubble. I still think SLU is playing as well as anyone in the conference, and they’ve looked fantastic at home, so it’s a chance for them to pick up another win of note as well.

-BAYLOR AT KANSAS STATE (Big Twelve). Baylor is on the outside looking in and desperately needs a huge win in order to put them over the top. Beating K State on the road would certainly suffice.

-OREGON AT WASHINGTON STATE (Pac Twelve). Oregon has been battling injuries, but is still in good shape and has a very winnable road game tonight.

-BOWLING GREEN AT AKRON (MAC). Akron has won sixteen straight games, and has been very tough at home. If they win out they’ll certainly get a look from the committee.

-GEORGE WASHINGTON AT VCU (Atlantic Ten). VCU looked very strong in their last game, and is in the mix to win the A10 and earn a very good seed.

-MEMPHIS AT MARSHALL (Conference USA). Memphis is looking for their 16th straight win, and appears to have a clear shot at winning out and landing safely inside the bubble.

-MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT UALR (Sun Belt). Middle Tennessee will land on the bubble if they win out, and is potentially a dangerous match-up in the NCAA Tournament.

-MICHIGAN STATE AT NEBRASKA (Big Ten). I think Michigan State could end up as a #1 seed. This is a very winnable road game for them.

-GEORGIA AT OLE MISS (SEC). After playing their way into the rankings and being one of the bigger stories in college basketball, Ole Miss has really gone into a tailspin and needs to win just to stay on the bubble. A loss like this would be very crippling.

-SYRACUSE AT SETON HALL (Big East). Syracuse is coming off an emotional loss to UConn, but should be able to pick up this win on the road.

-ARIZONA STATE AT COLORADO (Pac Twelve). Colorado is pretty far inside the bubble. They’ve played well lately, and seemingly everyone else around them on the S curve has not. They got a big win against Arizona earlier in the week and have what appears to be a winnable game tonight.

-TEXAS AT KANSAS (Big Twelve). After going on a three game skid, Kansas appears to be back in full swing and should end up winning huge tonight.

-SAN DIEGO STATE AT UNLV (Mountain West). UNLV has been a disappointment this year, but they still appear to be inside the bubble. Still, they could use another big win. San Diego State is a strong team that could use a notable road win to boost their profile as well.

Griggs

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Small Conference Game of the Day – February 15

Posted on February 15, 2013 by Chad

Following an exciting day that saw some great small conference games, including Western Illinois’ huge road win over North Dakota State in yesterday’s SCGD (and setting up another first place Summit League battle tomorrow between Western Illinois and South Dakota State), tonight we have a small Friday schedule with one clear standout game.  At 7:00 PM Eastern, Vermont travels to Stony Brook with first place in the America East at stake (espn3 coverage).

Stony Brook is presently 9-2 in conference while Vermont is half a game behind them at 9-3.  Both teams are coming off of recent upset losses, as Stony Brook fell two games ago at Hartford while Vermont lost last time out at home against Boston University.  BU is currently a game behind Vermont in third place, though ineligible for the conference tournament due to their announcement that they are leaving the league after this season.  As a result, tonight’s game may all but decide the top seed in the AEC, especially if Stony Brook can win.  This is the second meeting between the conference’s top two teams.  Vermont won in Burlington back on January 18, meaning a Catamounts victory tonight as well with give Vermont the tiebreaker edge should the teams finish with identical conference records.

The America East was also the source of one other piece of news yesterday as the Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks announced that they will be moving up to Division I in all sports beginning this fall, and accepted an invitation to join the America East conference.  UML will be one of four new additions to D1 next season, joining Grand Canyon (which is joining the WAC), Abilene Christian (Southland), and Incarnate Word (Southland).  The news of UML’s invite to the America East was probably not very welcome to NJIT, the lone team without a conference for next season.  The Highlanders had been pushing to take Boston U’s spot in the AEC.  At this point, it remains to be seen if the America East will be interested in a 10th team or if the Highlanders will have to look elsewhere for a conference home (the Northeast Conference being the next most likely home for them).

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More Midweek Notes, and Tonight’s Highligted Games (2/14/13)

Posted on February 14, 2013 by David Griggs

NOTES FROM WEDNESDAY

-After a boring first couple of nights of games, we saw some great ones last night.

-Duke beat North Carolina. It was a rivalry game. It was an exciting game. As far as it being a meaningful game, a top line team beat a mid-line team at home. Virtually nothing changes on either team’s profile.

-Colorado State continues to play well as they won an exciting, back and forth game against San Diego State. They were the beneficiaries of a bad call down the stretch. A play that should have been a charge in the final seconds was ruled a block, and that call along with a made basket (that should have been waived off) put the game out of reach for the Aztecs. What’s surprising is that Colorado State coach Larry Eustachy said after the game that they got the benefit of a bad call. Having said that, Colorado State did play very well, and even if the call hadn’t gone their way they still would have been up a point with ten seconds to go. Their profile continues to improve, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see them finish first in the Mountain West.

-Creighton lost their third straight game when they fell on the road to Northern Iowa. UNI is a very tough place to play, and that loss in and of itself didn’t hurt Creighton too much, but the fact that it is their third straight, and the fact that outside of a win against Wisconsin on a neutral floor Creighton has nothing of note on their profile, is pushing the Bluejays close to the bubble. They are definitely in a tailspin and need to come out of it.

-Charlotte got a big win at Butler. They had a lead the entire way, but Butler came close to pulling off yet another miracle. Rotnei Clarke scored 15 pts in the final 3:30 or so of the game, and actually put Butler in a position where they were down two with the ball and three seconds to play, but they turned it over and came up empty. For Charlotte, it was a much needed quality win on the road, that finally puts something good on their profile.

La Salle, another bubble team, had a bizarre finish in a game they could not afford to lose. Chances are you didn’t see it because it was only available via streaming, and the stream wasn’t free, so here is how it played out….

-La Salle with a three point lead, opting not to foul, but fouling by mistake as Bona was attempting a three.

-Bona is at the line with a chance to tie if they hit all three freethrows.

-He misses the first.

-He misses the second.

-He tries to miss the third on purpose, but makes it. La Salle up two less than five seconds to play.

-La Salle is fouled. Misses the first freethrow.

-They foolishly try to miss the second freethrow (presumably so the clock will start right away), but makes it by mistake. I’ve never seen a game where two attempted misses went in.

-Bona inbounds. Again, La Salle opts not to foul. Bona gets off a terrificl look…..and it rattles out.

La Salle wins.

 

TONIGHT’S ACTION

-ARIZONA AT COLORADO (Pac Twelve). The last time these two met we saw one of the more controversial endings as a three point shot that should have counted for Colorado was waived off, and Arizona went on to win in overtime. Not only that, but tonight’s game is very important on paper as Colorado needs big wins to get safely inside the bubble, and Arizona needs a nice road win to stay on the top lines.

-MONTANA AT WEBER STATE (Big Sky). Montana is unbeaten in Big Sky play and can get a three game lead over Weber with a win tonight. Since they own the head to head tiebreaker, it’s virtually a four game lead. The first place finisher byes into the conference semis and hosts the conference tourney. On top of that, Montana may reach the bubble if they win out, and this is hands down their toughest remaining game outside of a trip to Davidson.

-GONZAGA AT SAINT MARY’S (West Coast). SMC is a bubble team that desperately needs a big win. Gonzaga is hoping to play their way into the discussion for a #1 seed, and if they want any chance of that at all they pretty much need to win out.

-WISCONSIN AT MINNESOTA (Big Ten). Both teams have solid profiles, but Minney has been in a bit of a tailspin and could use a big win at home to build their momentum back up.

-DUQUESNE AT TEMPLE (Atlantic Ten). Who knows what Temple will do tonight?? It’s always anybody’s guess.

-NORTHWESTERN AT OHIO STATE (Big Ten). Ohio State needs to hold serve at home. Eventually they need a big road win to solidify a good seed, but they also need to hold serve at home.

-BELMONT AT TENNESSEEE STATE (Ohio Valley). I really like this Belmont team, but they need to win out.

-WESTERN ILLINOIS AT NORTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit League). Both of these teams are probably too far outside the bubble, but it is a big match up that will impact first place in the Summit League.

-STEPHEN F AUSTIN AT NICHOLLS STATE (Southland). SFA needs to win out to get the attention of the committee.

-SAINT JOHN’S AT LOUISVILLE (Big East). Saint John’s is on the bubble. Louisville is solidly in, but they’re a long way from the #1 line right about now. The Johnnies need a big win on their profile. Louisville needs to come out of the tailspin that they’re in.

-UCLA AT CALIFORNIA (Pac Twelve). UCLA is in fairly good shape and can add another road win to their profile.

-IOWA AT PENN STATE (Big Ten). I have Iowa outside the bubble. If they lose tonight, they will fall further outside of it. Much much much further outside of it.

-UMASS AT VCU (Atlantic Ten). I have UMass right on the bubble, and if they want any attention at all then this is the game they have to win. With a Butler loss, VCU has a clear shot at winning the A10., so they have a lot to play for as well.

-LOUISIANA TECH AT SEATTLE (WAC). At 21-3, LA Tech is a solid team, but with no really good wins. Winning out is their only shot of reaching the bubble, and even that may not be enough.

-USC AT STANFORD (Pac Twelve). Stanford has been playing well lately. They’re far away from the bubble, but if they keep winning they may end up reaching it.

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Small Conference Game of the Day – February 14

Posted on February 14, 2013 by Chad

For tonight’s SCGD, we return to the top of the conference standings.  In fact, there are quite a few great battles today among teams at the top of their conferences.  These games include Canisius at Loyola, Davidson at College of Charleston, Belmont at Tennessee State, Arkansas-Little Rock at Arkansas State, Montana at Weber State and of course Gonzaga at St. Mary’s.  However, our focus tonight will be in Fargo, North Dakota as the Summit League-leading Western Illinois Leathernecks travel to take on the North Dakota State Bison.

Western Illinois has been a surprising story all season and presently sits in sole possession of first place at 10-2 in league and 18-5 overall.  However, both North Dakota State and South Dakota State are only half a game back, each at 10-3 in conference.  NDSU is 19-6 overall with a 70 RPI and a 56 KenPom.  WIU’s RPI is 130 and their KenPom is 137.  Western Illinois did defeat the Bison at home 50-42 last month.

The Leathernecks are led by Terell Parks who has scored 10 double-doubles so far this season, best in the Summit League.  The Bison are led by Lawrence Alexander, Marshall Bjorkland, and TrayVonn Wright who has three double-doubles on the season for them as well.

While North Dakota State has only been in Division I since 2004, they are on the verge of their third 20 win season.  By comparison, Western Illinois is also seeking its third ever 20 win season, but have been in Division I for over 30 years.  In fact, the school record for WIU is 20, which should be surpassed this year.  Tonight’s game at North Dakota State, followed by this weekend’s game at South Dakota State, will go a long way to showing whether Western Illinois is a serious contender for thier first NCAA tournament bid ever, or if the Summit League will come down to a battle between the Dakotas.

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