Mid-Week Notes and Highlighted Games for Wednesday, Feb 13th

Posted on February 13, 2013 by David Griggs

MID-WEEK NOTES

-What looked to be a week of showcase games has given us some very unexciting results. Florida blew out Kentucky, Kansas blew out Kansas State, Michigan State blew Michigan’s doors off, and Michigan’s windows out, and basically blew Michigan’s roof off as well. It’s been awhile since I’ve seen a top four team get absolutely beaten down like that. Wow.

-A sad and scary moment for Nerlens Noel of Kentucky. A knee injury in last night’s Florida game has likely ended his season, and since he is an NBA prospect, it has also likely ended his college career. I realize Kentucky had just cracked the rankings, but I believed them to be close to the bubble as it was. Without him, they may fall out of the picture entirely. I hope that he is able to recover and that this does not impact his being an NBA prospect.

-Indiana State lost last night at Missouri State, which is a crippling loss for a bubble team. That’s’ the kind of loss that could end up with them getting left out of the field.

 

HIGHLIGTED GAMES

-SYRACUSE AT CONNECTICUT (Big East). This is going to be the last chapter of this series for quite a while. It’s the latest in many great rivalries that are being ended due to conference realignment. Unfortunately, it only has tournament implications for one of the teams, but UConn fans will be jacked up high for this one. With no NCAA Tournament, this is their showcase game of the year.

-DUKE AT NORTH CAROLINA (ACC). All of rivalry week is built around this game. It isn’t quite the clash of the titans that we’ve seen in previous years. North Carolina needs a big road win to build up their resume. Duke needs to hold serve if they want any shot at a #1 seed.

-OLE MISS AT TEXAS A&M (SEC). Both teams are on the bubble, but TAMU appears to be dropping off of it at a rapid pace. They need a win tonight.

-NEBRASKA AT INDIANA (Big Ten). A conference game with the feel of an OOC buy game.

-CHARLOTTE AT BUTLER (Atlantic Ten). Charlotte is on the bubble, and if they want to get inside it, they need a win like this.

-DEPAUL AT NOTRE DAME (Big East). I guess this is sort of a rivalry. With ND moving to the ACC, I’ll be curious to see if they keep this and the Marquette series going.

-AKRON AT EASTERN MICHIGAN (MAC). I think Akron needs to win out to be seriously considered.

-OKLAHOMA STATE AT TEXAS TECH (Big Twelve). Okie State could use some road wins. At the very least they don’t want to drop a road game to a team as weak as Texas Tech.

-MIAMI, FL AT FLORIDA STATE (ACC). The more I think about it, the more I think Miami is completely justified to top the S curve. This is a rivalry game, but FSU appears to be way overmatched.

-LA SALLE AT SAINT BONAVENTURE (Atlantic Ten). La Salle is inside the bubble, but close to it, and could use a nice road win.

-COLGATE AT BUCKNELL (Patriot League). Bucknell needs to win out to be seriously considered, and unfortunately for them that might not even be enough.

-UCF AT MEMPHIS (Conference USA). Memphis is coming off a big road win at Southern Miss, and has actually cracked the rankings, but considering how weak their schedule is I still don’t see them as having a huge margin for error.

-ARIZONA STATE AT UTAH (Pac Twelve). Arizona State cannot afford a loss in this one.

-CREIGHTON AT NORTHERN IOWA (Missouri Valley). Despite two straight losses, Creighton is still in the top 25. They need a road win because even though their ranking has gone up, their profile certainly has not.

-DRAKE AT WICHITA STATE (Missouri Valley). Drake has been a challenge for teams at home, but not so much on the road. Wichita cannot afford to lose this one.

-MISSOURI AT MISSISSIPPI STATE (SEC). Will Mizzou finally win a road game?? If they lose this, a very strong case could be made for leaving them out entirely.

-TULANE AT SOUTHERN MISS (Conference USA). With no top 100 wins I’m not sure why people are still high on Southern Miss. Beating Tulane accomplishes nothing, but I keep them on the radar only because other people seem to like them. Perhaps they see something that I don’t.

-IOWA STATE AT TEXAS (Big Twelve). Iowa State’s resume has been trending up, and they have the chance to add another road win to it tonight.

-WEST VIRGINI AAT BAYLOR (Big Twelve). Baylor simply cannot afford to lose this game. They’re in serious trouble as it is.

-NEVADA AT WYOMING (Mountain West). Wyoming cannot afford to lose this game. They’re in serious trouble as it is.

-UNLV AT AIR FORCE (Mountain West). Air Force is way outside the bubble, but their home floor has become somewhat of a snake pit. UNLV, on the other hand, has struggled in several big games this year, so they really need to be on upset alert. On top of that, the Rebels could really use a road win like this right about now.

-SAN DIEGO STATE AT COLORADO STATE (Mountain West). Colorado State is in the rankings, is red hot, and has been playing very well at home. They’re a serious contender for the MWC title, and perhaps even a protected seed. San Diego State is also safely inside the bubble, but a road win like this will help them out even more.

-OREGON AT WASHINGTON (Pac Twelve). Oregon has dealt with injuries and gone into a bit of a slump. They need a nice road win like this to bring them out of it.

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Small Conference Game of the Day – February 13

Posted on February 13, 2013 by Chad

Holy Cross cruised past Navy last night in a game that may end up dooming the Middies to last place in the Patriot League.  Tonight, the SCGD continues its focus on teams that most likely will not be playing any postseason basketball beyond their conference tournament by turning to a battle near the bottom of the America East standings.  While Stony Brook and Vermont appear locked in a battle for the top spot in the AEC, tonight’s game is Maryland-Baltimore County at New Hampshire (7:00 PM Eastern).

UMBC enters tonight game at 6-18 overall, 4-7 in conference.  Their RPI is 314.  New Hampshire is presently 6-16 overall, 2-8 in conference and has an RPI of 294.  The best game either team can vouch for on the season was New Hampshire only losing by 8 at Connecticut back in December.  While Binghamton is sitting at 1-11 in league play and likely headed to the worst seed in the conference tournament, this game could go a ways to determining who is the 6th and 7th seeds.  Luckily, noone will have to play in a dreaded first round 8/9 game this season as Boston University’s ineligibility for the AEC tournament due to their announcement that they are leaving for the Patriot League next year has cut the field size down to only 8 this year.

The UMBC Retrievers are led in scoring by Ryan Cook at 14.7 points per game, but he has been struggling recently, with his current 14.7 ppg being the lowest it has been all season.  However, guard Brian Neller has hit 22 three pointers in his last five games sophomore guard Joey Getz has been coming on strong in recent games.  As for the Wildcats of New Hampshire, they are led by guard Ferg Myrick who is averaging 13.8 points per game.  Patrick Konan scored 19 points when these two teams met earlier this season, though UMBC won that game.  UNH also needs a big turnaround tonight as they are 0-5 at home in AEC play so far this season.

As a final note, while Boston University’s departure will drop the America East down to 8 teams, there have been rumors swirling for several months now that the conference will be expanding back out to 9 very soon.  The team that has been lobbying to replace BU is NJIT, the only current member of the Great West conference without a new conference home for next season.  As of the moment, NJIT is scheduled to be an independent next season — but there is still time for them to find a way into the AEC before next season begins.

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Rankings Rant

Posted on February 12, 2013 by David Griggs

I just looked at the rankings.  They make no sense at all.

I guess I understand the reason why Duke is ranked ahead of Miami. The reason is that the voters don’t use logic when they assess teams. Miami did manage to squeak by Duke when they met earlier in the year. Not sure if anyone caught that or not. On top of that, they’ve managed to win at places where Duke failed to win. Most recently, Duke struggled to win at Boston College. Whatever logic went into ranking Duke ahead of Miami has probably blown the planet Vulcan off its axis (footnote Star Trek).

Kentucky checks in at #25 in the AP poll. Nothing, not one thing, indicates that Kentucky is a top 25 team. The win at Ole Miss was good, but does that one single moment out of hundreds of hours indicate that they’re a top 25 team?? They lost at home to Baylor. They lost to Alabama (the same Alabama that was creamed by Auburn). They lost at home to Texas A&M, and struggled to beat LSU. At home. Kentucky routinely loses to or struggles to beat teams outside the top fifty. The key word is ROUTINELY. Occassionally (and by occassionally, I mean once) they play well at a place like Ole Miss.

At least Missouri is out of the rankings.  Barely, though. It only took the voters a month to figure out what any one with any sense at all could figure out, and that’s that Missouri is likely a fringe top forty team…if that. Since, Mizzou is still #26, only some of the voters have figured that out.  Clearly not all of them.  They’re last year’s Arkansas team. They’re great at home and awful on the road.  Mizzou is out of the rankings, but how in the world are they still #26??  I just don’t get it.

Creighton’s blowout loss at Indiana State, and follow up loss to Illinois State (a sub 100 team), must have really impressed the voters in the coach’s poll. I feel the need to repeat that. Creighton was unranked a week ago, and lost two games to teams that aren’t even in the same universe as the top 25, and went from being unranked to being ranked. Huh??

***EDIT:  When looking at the Top 25, Creighton is in at #23, and Colorado State checked in right behind them at #24.  In the PREVIOUS RANKING column, it said #13 next to Creighton, and NR next to Colorado State.  It has just been pointed out to me that I transposed them.  I guess I shoudln’t be pointing my finger at the voters if I can’t keep my own facts straight – D Griggs (2-13-13)***

Griggs

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Small Conference Game of the Day – February 12

Posted on February 12, 2013 by Chad

There are so many times that we focus our attention at the top of conference standings, that we tend to forget about the guys on the bottom.  So for today’s edition of the Small Conference Game of the Day, we will be paying attention to a pair of teams battling to avoid finishing in last place in their league — tonight’s game is the last place battle in the Patriot League between Navy and Holy Cross (7:00 PM Eastern in Worcester, Mass).

The former national champion (1947) Holy Cross Crusaders enter tonight’s game 2-6 in conference play and 10-13 overall.  Their RPI and KenPom are identical at 230.  Navy’s Midshipmen enter at 1-7 in league and 7-17 overall.  They have an RPI of 322 and a KenPom of 317.  The most notable win either team has actually belongs to Navy who defeated Northeast Conference leader Bryant back on December 10.

Holy Cross has dominated this series, holding a 36-18 all-time advantage, including having won the last five straight games.  The Crusaders are led by forward Dave Dudzinski who is averaging 15.7 points and 6.9 rebounds per game.  They also have sophomore point guard Justin Burrell who was named Patriot League Rookie of the Year last season.  Navy, on the other hand, is led by youth, with freshman Tilman Dunbar and sophomores Worth Smith and Brandon Venturini leading the way.  Of course, ex-Penn State head coach Ed DeChellis is on the sidelines in his second season at Annapolis as he continues to attempt to rebuild the program.

A Holy Cross win tonight will clearly put the Middies solidly in the Patriot League basement and on their way to an 8 seed in the conference tournament.  However, if DeChellis’ young team can score the upset, the two teams will be tied for seventh place and could spend the rest of the season battling things out at the bottom of the Patriot League.

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David Griggs’ Seed List/S Curve Rankings for Monday, Feb 11th

Posted on February 11, 2013 by David Griggs

The teams in ALL CAPS are the projected conference champions. They are either currently the first place team, or in a tie for first place via the loss column.

-The locations of where the teams on the top four lines will be sent are in (parenthesis).

-I didn’t bother bracketing the teams. Honestly, it is normally a timing issue, but it is also an issue of tedium. I know that it is fun to look at this in bracketed format, but I don’t think it tells you anything that simply listing the rankings doesn’t tell you. If anything, it is less precise because you have to move teams up and down seed lines to meet the bracketing rules.

-I am not necessarily trying to guess the committee, but merely evaluate teams the way I think they should be evaluated based on the criteria the committee looks at.

For more Analysis, listen to our podcast linked below…

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/crimsoncast/2013/02/11/the-real-bracket-racket-2102013

 

-NOTES ON THE SEED LIST ARE LOCATED BELOW

1. MIAMI, FL (Austin TX) (Arlington, TX)
2. INDIANA (Dayton, OH) (Indianapolis, IN)
3. Michigan (Auburn Hills, MI) (Washington DC)
4. Michigan State (Auburn Hills, MI) (Los Angeles, CA)
5. SYRACUSE (Philadelphia)
6. Duke (Philadelphia)
7. FLORIDA (Austin)
8. ARIZONA (Salt Lake City)
9. GONZAGA (San Jose)
10. KANSAS STATE (Kansas City)
11. Kansas (Kansas City)
12. Pittsburgh (Dayton)
13. Wisconsin (Salt Lake City)
14. BUTLER (Lexington)
15. Louisville (Lexington)
16. NEW MEXICO (San Jose)
17. Minnesota
18. Marquette
19. Georgetown
20. Oklahoma State
21. Notre Dame
22. Ohio State
23. Cincinnati
24. San Diego State
25. Illinois
26. Colorado State
27. Vcu
28. Oregon
29. Oklahoma
30. Saint Louis
31. NC State
32. WICHITA STATE
33. Unlv
34. Ucla
35. Creighton
36. Colorado
37. La Salle
38. Boise State
39. North Carolina
40. Indiana State
41. BELMONT
42. Temple
43. MIDDLE TENNESSEE
44. MEMPHIS
45. UMass
46. Saint John’s (First Four)
47. Iowa State (First Four)
48. Missouri
49. Kentucky (First Four)
50. Ole Miss (First Four)
51. AKRON
52. STEPHEN F AUSTIN
53. BUCKNELL
54. LOUISIANA TECH
55. DAVIDSON
56. VALPARAISO
57. MERCER
58. WESTERN ILLINOIS
59. HARVARD
60. NORTHEASTERN
61. MONTANA
62. BRYANT
63. UNC ASHEVILLE
64. STONY BROOK
65. NIAGARA (First Four)
66. LONG BEACH STATE (First Four)
67. NORFOLK STATE (First Four)
68. SOUTHERN (First Four)

 

NOTES:

NEXT IN LINE:
-Baylor, Saint Mary’s, Villanova, Wyoming, South Dakota State, Virginia, Charlotte, Stanford, Texas A&M, Maryland, Arizona State, Murray State, Air Force, Southern Miss, Lehigh, Ohio U, Florida State, BYU, Alabama

-I broke protocol by sending Louisville and Butler to Lexington even though Wisconsin was higher on the S Curve. The reason is that I think the committee tries to keep as many teams as close to home as possible, and they will sometimes break the seed list ranking if they can keep more than one team closer to home by doing it.

-My last three at-large teams are SEC teams, which would create an SEC match-up in the First Four. Therefore, Missouri was moved up and Saint John’s was moved down.

-I’m still not sure what to do with Ohio State. I have them at #22, which is a #6 seed. On paper, their best win away from home is Washington on a neutral floor, and their best true road win is probably Purdue. All the teams around them have done more than that, so I could make a case for having them much lower. Having said that, they lost on the road to Michigan State, Duke and Michigan by a combined total of 10pts, so they can definitely play on the road. It is a shame that their season opener against Marquette was cancelled. It could have given them a notable win away from home and made a world of difference. They still have several chances remaining, but until they get at least one strong road win I’m hesitant to move them up.

-Louisville has had leads late in the game in all of their losses with the exception of Villanova. In their five game epic overtime game against Notre Dame, they led at the end of regulation, and in the final minute of the first four overtimes. They’re having trouble closing out opponents and until they get that figured out it’s going to be hard for me to consider them national title contenders.

-The actual committee probably won’t like Belmont, Middle Tennessee, Akron and Stephen F Austin as much as I do. I think Belmont is the best team out of those four, but on paper they’re hurting. They have a decisive win against Middle Tennessee, a win at Stanford (who has just one other home loss), and a win at Eastern Kentucky (who has no other home losses), so there is some indication there that they are a solid team, but it doesn’t jump out at you right away. Hopefully the committee sees what I see if Belmont ends up stubbing their toes in the OVC Tournament.

-With the exception of their one loss to Northwestern State, SFA has been blowing through Southland play. Their only other loss on the season was to Texas A&M. They have a good win against Oklahoma, and a bunch of decisive wins against sub-100 teams. Again, hopefully they win the Southland Tourney and it’s not an issue.

-There are three Big Ten teams with #1 seeds. Not only is this within the rules, there is precedence for this. We saw three Big East teams earn #1 seeds in 2009.

-I’m really holding my nose with the inclusion of Saint John’s, but I think they stink less than the teams I left out.

Griggs

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Small Conference Game of the Day – February 11

Posted on February 11, 2013 by Chad

Canisius picked up a huge road win yesterday at Niagara to tighten things up at the top of the MAAC.  For tonight’s SCGD, we could have taken a return trip down to Louisiana to once again check in on the Grambling State Tigers as they host Mike Davis’ Texas Southern squad.  However, instead we are actually going to take a look at a pair of games out of the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference: Bethune-Cookman at North Carolina Central (7:30 PM Eastern) and Maryland-Eastern Shore at Norfolk State (8:00 PM Eastern).

Entering tonight’s action, we are down to only eight teams in the entire country that are undefeated in their conferences.  Miami, Montana, Memphis, Akron, Gonzaga and Louisiana Tech are six of those.  The final two are both in the MEAC — North Carolina Central and Norfolk State.  Further, due to one of the scheduling quirks that you get when you have conferences with more than 12 teams (the MEAC has 13), these two teams will not be playing each other during the regular season.  While there is still a ways to go, we could have a very rare situation in the MEAC that actually sees two teams go undefeated in their regular seasons.

As for tonight’s games, neither Bethune-Cookman nor UMES appear to be significant challenges for the MEAC leaders.  Norfolk State’s next big challenge will more likely come a week from tonight at Hampton, while NC Central has a trip to Savannah State coming this Saturday.

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