Small Conference Game of the Day – January 27

Posted on January 27, 2013 by Chad

After another great SCGD yesterday, with Northwestern State knocking Stephen F Austin out of the ranks of the teams that are undefeated in their conference, we turn today to the Colonial, and a huge matchup (8:00 PM Eastern, Comcast Sports) between George Mason and Northeastern.

Unlike some recent years where the CAA has either given us an at-large team or at least been in the bubble talk, the Colonial this season seems to be fairly certain to be a one bid league.  This is in part due to Virginia Commonwealth having moved on to the Atlantic Ten.  In addition, four of the remaining 11 teams are ineligible for the conference tournament (Towson and UNC-Wilmington due to APR, Old Dominion and Georgia State due to a conference rule that teams that are leaving after the season cannot win the automatic bid).  However, the top of the league so far this season has been all about the Northeastern Huskies.

Northeastern is 7-0 in league and 12-7 overall, including a solid non-conference win over Belmont.  They have an RPI of 130 and a Pomeroy of 160.  George Mason is also 12-7 overall but 5-2 in conference.  They do have a big win over Virginia back in their very first game of the season, but added in some bad losses including a recent loss to UNC-Wilmington.  Their RPI is 106 and their Pomeroy is 107.  This is the second matchup of the season between the two teams, with Northeastern having previously scored an 84-74 win at George Mason.  A win at home tonight will give them a commanding 3 game lead in the conference as the league season nears its mid-point.

Joel Smith leads the way for the Huskies, averaging 16.7 points per game.  Also keep an eye on Quincy Ford who won co-player of the week in the CAA last week.  For George Mason, Sherrod Wright is averaging 18.4 points per game to lead the team.  Also keep an eye on freshman Marko Gujanicic off the bench, as he registered a double-double against James Madison last week to take CAA Rookie of the Week honors.

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Small Conference Game of the Day – January 26

Posted on January 26, 2013 by Chad

After a streak of great picks by the SCGD, we finally found a clunker last night, as Florida Gulf Coast completely dominated Stetson and cruised to an easy victory.  There are a ton of choices for today’s game, including a top battle in the Summit League between North Dakota State and South Dakota State, the rematch in the Ohio Valley between Belmont and Eastern Kentucky, a top battle in the WAC between Louisiana Tech and Utah State, and even a first place battle in the Great West between Texas-Pan American and NJIT.

However, today we will be turning to the Southland conference and focusing on a team that is starting to get some attention from Top 25 voters – the 16-1 Lumberjacks of Stephen F. Austin.  Despite their gaudy record, SFA sits only at 69 in the RPI and 55 in Pomeroy.  This is in part due to their choice to schedule four non-Division I foes this season.  However, they only lost one game (at Texas A&M) and scored a very solid road win back in December over Oklahoma.  The Lumberjacks have also already won at Oral Roberts, which was on paper their toughest conference road game this season.

This afternoon (4:00 PM Eastern), they go on the road to play the Demons of Northwestern State.  While the trip to ORU may have been their toughest game in league, today’s game is easily their second toughest.  Northwestern State is 5-2 in league and 11-6 overall on the season so far, including a win over WAC leader Louisiana Tech.  This may be the best chance for anyone to beat SFA in conference this season.  If the Lumberjacks get past today’s game, they will be heavy favorites in all conference games leading up to the Southland tournament championship game.  In fact, their toughest game left on their slate will be their Bracket Buster matchup, where they are slated to be a road team.  The Bracket Buster announcements will be coming Monday, and if SFA wins, it would be incredible to see them travel to play Wichita State, though a trip to St. Mary’s, Akron or Belmont would all be intriguing games as well.

As for the game itself, this has a chance to be a great matchup.  Stephen F. Austin leads the nation in scoring defense, allowing only 49.4 points per game.  On the other side, Northwestern State leads the nation in offense, averaging 85.0 points per game.  SFA is led by Taylor Smith who has had four double-doubles in his last five games and Desmond Haymon who had a double-double in his last game.  Northwestern State features DeQuan Hicks and Shamir Davis as their top two scorers, though both Jalan West and James Hulbin are also averaging double figures in scoring.

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Highlighted Games for Saturday, Jan 26th

Posted on January 26, 2013 by David Griggs

-NEW MEXICO AT SAN DIEGO STATE (Mountain West). A showcase game between what is perhaps the MWC’s two best teams. Both have been in the rankings this year, and both are playing for a protected seed. Expect a great atmosphere for this one.

-LA SALLE AT VCU (Atlantic Ten). This game is showcased because VCU is coming off a loss and needs to rebound. La Salle is coming off their biggest win of the year against Butler, which has put them in the vicinity of the bubble. If they win this game, they’re going inside the bubble.

-SYRACUSE AT VILLANOVA (Big East). Nova won a big game earlier this week against Louisville. IF they win a second monster game, they will probably win the award for most improved profile over the past week. With just one loss, Syracuse is a strong candidate for a #1 seed.

-LOUISVILLE AT GEORGETOWN (Big East). Louisville has lost two straight, and suddenly doesn’t look like the national title contenders many (myself included) thought they were. Georgetown got a much needed win earlier in the week, and could really help themselves out with a big win today. Both teams have a lot to gain in this one.

-NOTRE DAME AT SOUTH FLORIDA (Big East). ND is 15-4 on the season, but just 1-1 in true road wins, and they need to improve that part of their profile.

-OHIO STATE AT PENN STATE (Big Ten). As winnable of a Big Ten road game as there could possibly be for Ohio State.

-WEST VIRGINIA AT OKLAHOMA STATE (Big Twelve). Okie State is on the bubble and can’t afford a loss to a team that clearly is not a tournament team, especially at home.

-MARYLAND AT DUKE (ACC). Duke was beaten badly at Miami, FL earlier this week and is looking to rebound. Maryland has a solid record, but not much in the way of solid wins, especially away from home. This would push them pretty far inside the bubble if they’re able to pull it off.

-KANSAS STATE AT IOWA STATE (Big Twelve). Iowa State has a spotty resume, which includes a very damaging loss to Texas Tech in their last game, but they do have some decent wins. They’re also unbeaten at home, and nearly beat Kansas earlier this season. K State lost to Kansas earlier this week and is looking to rebound with a big road win.

-ALABAMA AT TENNESSEE (SEC). Alabama has a lot of work to do and a very small margin for error, but they have been playing well the past few weeks and can continue to inch closer and closer to the bubble if they keep winning.

-MINNESOTA AT WISCONSIN (Big Ten). Minnesota has struggled lately, and although Wisconsin lost their last game they’ve been looking a lot better. Both could really push themselves forward with a win today.

-MARSHALL AT MEMPHIS (Conference USA). At 15-3, Memphis should be inside the bubble so long as they don’t stub their toes too many times between now and the end.

-CHARLOTTE AT GEORGE WASHINGTON (Atlantic Ten). A win gets Charlotte to 17-3 and keeps them near the top of the Atlantic Ten. They still don’t have any really big wins, though.

-PROVIDENCE AT MARQUETTE (Big East). Marquette just had a six game win streak snapped in a close loss at Cincinnati, and shouldn’t have too much trouble with a Providence team that’s been struggling.

-NORTH DAKOTA STATE AT SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit League). NDSU won the first game in a thriller and has played well since then, but is coming off their first conference loss. Neither team is likely to end up inside the bubble, but NDSU may get a look if they win out.

-WESTERN KENTUCKY AT MIDDLE TENNESSEE (Sun Belt). A win for MTSU gets them to 18-4 on the year. This is a conference rival, but WKU appears to be way overmatched on the road.

-SANTA CLARA AT SAN DIEGO (West Coast). At 15-6 Santa Clara is pretty far outside the bubble, but could play their way onto it if they can manage wins against the likes of BYU, Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga.

-OKLAHOMA AT KANSAS (Big Twelve). Oklahoma has looked good this year, but a win would absolutely skyrocket the value of their resume. Kansas is coming off a big road win and has looked like a #1 seed both on the court and on paper for most of the year.

-BAYLOR AT TCU (Big Twelve). Baylor is on the bubble and simply cannot afford to lose.

-UCLA AT ARIZONA STATE (Pac Twelve). UCLA picked up a huge road win in their last game at Arizona. Arizona State has a bloated record, but nothing impressive on it. They need a notable win such as this if they want to be taken seriously.

-BOISE STATE AT NEVADA (Mountain West). Boise got a much needed win in their last game and would do themselves a favor if they could avoid losing to a sub tournament team on the road.

-SAINT LOUIS AT SAINT BONAVENTURE (Atlantic Ten). SLU’s resume looks like the resume of a bubble team, so every game feels pivotal. Here’s a chance to pick up a road win.

-STEPHEN F AUSTIN AT NORTHWESTERN STATE (Southland). SFA has just one loss on the season, but other than Oklahoma they are severely lacking in quality wins. Northwestern State currently has just one home loss so SFA needs to be on upset alert. If they win, hopefully the committee will give them some credit seeing as how well Northwestern State has played at home. (Small Conference Game of the Day, perhaps??)

-DEPAUL AT PITTSBURGH (Big East). Pitt shouldn’t have too much trouble winning. They’ve looked solid lately. A loss at home against DePaul would hurt.

-LSU AT KENTUCKY (SEC). I believe that Kentucky is currently outside the bubble and needs to play their way in. They also need to avoid losses to non-tournament teams at home.

-BUCKNELL AT HOLY CROSS (Patriot League). Bucknell is 16-4, but they may be out of strikes. They may need to win out just to get onto the bubble.

-SOUTHERN MISS AT TULSA (Conference USA). Not many people are paying attention to them, but a win gets Southern Miss to 17-4.

-VANDERBILT AT MISSOURI (SEC). Missouri has been disappointing this season, but not at home. They shouldn’t have much trouble today. If they do, they’re in serious trouble.

-XAVIER AT SAINT JOSEPH’S (Atlantic Ten). Many have Xavier on the bubble. Why, I’m not sure, but if they want to stay there they need to beat other teams that are outside the bubble…like Saint Joe’s.

-TEMPLE AT BUTLER (Atlantic Ten). Temple has been very schizophrenic. They have wins against Syracuse and a near win at Kansas, and losses to Saint Bonaventure and Canisius. They struggled against lowly Penn earlier this week. Butler should be back at full strength and is looking to rebound from an upset loss at La Salle.

-NORTH CAROLINA AT NC STATE (ACC). NC State is unbeaten at home, and UNC could use some big road wins. This is a huge rivalry game, and although both have something to gain, UNC needs it a little more.

-BUFFALO AT AKRON (MAC). At 14-4, Akron is looking very good and could even play their way onto or inside of the bubble if they keep it up.

-WASHINGTON AT OREGON (Pac Twelve). Oregon has looked very impressive this year, and is probably the best team in the Pac Twelve.

-USC AT ARIZONA (Pac Twelve). Arizona fell behind big early to UCLA and just couldn’t catch all the way back up. They shouldn’t have too much trouble rebounding today.

-BELMONT AT EASTERN KENTUCKY (Ohio Valley). These two squared off less than two weeks ago, and Belmont won. Both teams have just four losses, but Belmont’s resume is a little better. In fact, they should be on the bubble if they win out. EKU has not lost at home, so this is perhaps Belmont’s highest level potential win remaining on their schedule. Another SCGD candidate, perhaps??

-OLE MISS AT AUBURN (SEC). It isn’t always pretty. In fact, it rarely is pretty. Ole Miss continues to win, though, and remains in the rankings. They should make the dance if they can avoid bad losses the rest of the way. Playing in the SEC does prevent several opportunities for bad losses…..like today’s game.

-FLORIDA AT MISSISSIPPI STATE (SEC). This should be a mismatch and an easy win for Florida, who at times looks like a Final Four team, even if their resume doesn’t quite reflect it.

-SAN FRANCISCO AT GONZAGA (West Coast). Gonzaga shouldn’t be challenged too much in this one.

-BRADLEY AT WICHITA STATE (Missouri Valley). Wichita struggled in their last game, but came back to win. They shouldn’t have too much trouble in this one at home.

-LOUISIANA TECH AT UTAH STATE (WAC). As crazy as this sounds, Louisiana Tech can clinch first place in the WAC if they win their next two games. Utah State isn’t a tournament team, but they are good and are tough to beat at home. These are two of the better teams in the conference, and since a win gets LA Tech to 18-3 they’re going to start to get some looks.

-AIR FORCE AT WYOMING (Mountain West/Front Range). Wyoming is 15-3 with some good wins and is having an NCAA Tournament caliber season. From a bragging rights standpoint, they’re 3-0 in the mythical Front Range conference and can win that championship as well.

-BYU AT PORTLAND (West Coast). BYU’s margin for error is basically non-existent. If they lose this game, then we won’t be writing about them anymore.

Griggs

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Small Conference Game of the Day – January 25

Posted on January 25, 2013 by Chad

The SCGD picked another good game last night as Western Illinois escaped Fort Wayne with a 3 point victory to remain atop the Summit League.  Tonight, we head south and east to Florida for an Atlantic Sun game.  The Stetson Hatters sit tied for first at 6-2 in conference play, while the Florida Gulf Coast Eagles are one of three teams with 3 losses in league play, meaning that half the conference is within one game in the loss of column of each other for first place.  Tonight’s game (7:00 PM Eastern, CSS/espn3) is being played at FGCU’s home court in Fort Myers, Florida.

FGCU enters tonight’s game with the best overall record among Atlantic Sun teams at 13-8.  Most notably, they are the team that knocked off Miami way back on November 13.  They have also already scored wins over Jacksonville and South Carolina-Upstate, two of the other teams in the top half of the conference.

Stetson began the season 4-10, with only 3 of their wins being over Division I foes.  However, they have now won 5 straight and 6 out of 7, making them the hottest team in the conference.  The Hatters enter the game with an RPI of 217, well behind FGCU’s 120.  KenPom has the numbers a bit closer, with a 170 rating for the Eagles and a 239 for the Hatters.

Keep an eye out in this game for FGCU’s star player, Sherwood Brown.  Brown has had double double’s in each of his last four games and was named last week’s A-Sun Player of the Week.  His backcourt mate, Bernard Thompson, is sixth in the nation in total steals, while Eric McKnight up front leads the conference in blocks.

On the Stetson side, center Adam Pegg is averaging 17.6 point and 6.1 rebounds in league play.  The Hatters have put together their season so far without a true point guard on the roster, though shooting guard Joel Naburgs has been taking on the responsibility of being floor general and has improved as the season progresses.  He is currently fifth in the conference in assists per game.  Naburgs is also a deadly shooter, sitting only 13 threes away from becoming Stetson’s all-time career leader in that category.

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Highlighted Games for Thursday, Jan 24th

Posted on January 24, 2013 by David Griggs

-UCLA AT ARIZONA (Pac Twelve). UCLA could use a big road win to play their way into being first ballot team. Arizona appears to be a clear protected seed at the moment. Should be a good one between two of the better teams in the Pac Twelve.

-WYOMING AT UNLV (Mountain West). UNLV appears to be in better shape than Wyoming at the moment, but there is room for improvement on both teams’ resumes. Speaking of room for improvement……

-STANFORD AT COLORADO (Pac Twelve). Colorado has hit the skids and needs to resuscitate their resume.

-BELMONT AT MOREHEAD STATE (Ohio Valley). Not nearly as much buzz about this year’s Belmont team as there was about last year’s Murray team, but they may be every bit as good.

-VCU AT RICHMOND (Atlantic Ten). A bitter crosstown rivalry is now a conference rivalry. Richmond appears to be overmatched, but they should be jacked up for this one. VCU is the only remaining unbeaten team in A10 conference play.

-PURDUE AT MICHIGAN (Big Ten). In my opinion, Michigan is the best team in the country, and they’d currently sit atop my seed list. Now that I’ve said that, they will likely lose to Purdue tonight.

-TENNESSEE AT OLE MISS (SEC). Ole Miss has cracked the rankings and appears to be playing their way further and further inside the bubble.

-VIRGINIA AT VIRGINIA TECH (ACC). It’s a rivalry game and it should be a good game, but both teams appear to sit outside the bubble at the moment.

-MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE AT NORTH TEXAS (Sun Belt). UNT was a SBC favorite coming into the year, but has been very disappointing. I can’t help but think that MTSU will get a serious look if they run the table, which they’re good enough to do.

-LOUISIANA TECH AT SAN JOSE STATE (WAC). At 16-3, I wonder what kind of a look LA Tech will get if they win out, but fail to win the conference tourney.

-USC AT ARIZONA STATE (Pac Twelve). Arizona State’s record is misleading, they need big wins, and they need to avoid bad losses to teams like USC.

-BYU AT GONZAGA (West Coast). BYU is on the bubble, and maybe even outside of it. Without a big win like this one, they may be sweating.

-SAN DIEGO AT SAINT MARY’S (West Coast). Like BYU, SMC is right on the bubble and needs to avoid bad losses.

Griggs

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Small Conference Game of the Day – January 24

Posted on January 24, 2013 by Chad

The SCGD failed to steer wrong yet again last night, as Lehigh-Bucknell was another thriller.  Lehigh proved that they are not a one-man show by winning a tough road game without McCollum, while Bucknell showed that there may not be much to their team beyond their star player Muscala, as they seemed to fall apart when he left the game.  The two teams will meet again on February 18 at Lehigh.

For tonight’s game, we turn our attention to the Summit League.  Two years ago, Western Illinois was 4-23.  Last season they managed a .500 record.  This season, they have already put together a 15-4 record, including a 7-1 start in Summit League play that has them sitting in a first place tie with North Dakota State, a game ahead of last season’s conference champions from South Dakota State.  They have a great shot at setting their all-time school Division I record for wins in a season, which right now sits at 20, achieved twice, last in 1994-95.

With Oral Roberts having left the Summit League this season for the Southland, the conference looks like it will be a three team dogfight the rest of the way.  However, in terms of RPI numbers, WIU is at 137 while North Dakota State and South Dakota State are sitting at 55 and 65 respectively.  Despite that, Western Illinois is coming off a huge home win over conference co-leader North Dakota State their last time out.

Western Illinois takes their team on the road tonight, 7:00 PM Eastern, to face the Mastodons of IP-Fort Wayne.  IPFW is 9-12 on the season with an RPI of 292.  If the Leathernecks are going to make a serious run at the Summit League title, they cannot afford to lose games such as this one tonight.  Keep an eye out in this game for sharpshooter Ceola Clark III, who became the Leathernecks’ all time leading three point shooter this past weekend.  Keep an eye on Western’s defense as well, as they are fourth in the nation in scoring defense, permitting 52.1 points per game. Western Illinois is also third in the nation in fewest personal fouls committed per game, committing an average of only 12.3.

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